JB INTs Over Under

[kalibengal]

Looking at the trajectory of the INTs Burrow is tossing and factoring in the added 17th game, Im going with over 20.
What is the record?

Just hope if he tosses this amount, he also gets at least 30 TDs

[*jason*]

Where's a nickname thread when you need it? The guy's playing like he wants to be called Sloppy Joe.

[Bengals-Man12345]

I think the real question is why is there a Jamar Chase and Zac Taylor sticky thread but not a Joe Burrow one?

[kalibengal]

(11-08-2021, 02:14 PM)Bengals-Man12345 Wrote: I think the real question is why is there a Jamar Chase and Zac Taylor sticky thread but not a Joe Burrow one?

The record for most INTs ina season os by GB (George Blanda) in 1962- 42 picks
so "sloppy Joe has a ways to go"

[*ochocincos*]

Burrow is on pace for 20-21 INTs.
He's also on pace for 4716 yards and 37-38 TDs.

Few QBs end up having 20+ INTs on the season but the ones who end up with 30+ TDs along with that are still considered pretty good.
For example, Rivers had 4386 yards, 33 TDs, and led the league with 21 INTs in 2016. He was a Pro Bowler.

When all is said and done, I think Burrow ends up in the 16-18 range for INTs, and I think he ends up with ~35 TDs and 4500 yards.

[TecmoBengals]

(11-08-2021, 03:18 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Burrow is on pace for 20-21 INTs.
He's also on pace for 4716 yards and 37-38 TDs.

Few QBs end up having 20+ INTs on the season but the ones who end up with 30+ TDs along with that are still considered pretty good.
For example, Rivers had 4386 yards, 33 TDs, and led the league with 21 INTs in 2016. He was a Pro Bowler.

When all is said and done, I think Burrow ends up in the 16-18 range for INTs, and I think he ends up with ~35 TDs and 4500 yards.

& he'll make the Pro Bowl as the 5th alternate after a bunch of other guys decline to play.  

[*ochocincos*]

(11-08-2021, 03:19 PM)TecmoBengals Wrote: & he'll make the Pro Bowl as the 5th alternate after a bunch of other guys decline to play.  

This is probably somewhat of a joke, as there aren't that many QBs in the AFC having a better season than Burrow.
Burrow is 9th in the league in passer rating, 1st in the AFC.
Burrow is 5th in the league in yards, 3rd in the AFC.
Burrow is 4th in the league in TDs, tied 1st in the AFC.

Since the Pro Bowl does have a popularity contest aspect to it, I could see the 3 Pro Bowlers being Mahomes, Herbert, and either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson.
I think the next guys after them would be Burrow and Carr.

[TecmoBengals]

(11-08-2021, 03:40 PM)ochocincos Wrote: This is probably somewhat of a joke, as there aren't that many QBs in the AFC having a better season than Burrow.
Burrow is 9th in the league in passer rating, 1st in the AFC.
Burrow is 5th in the league in yards, 3rd in the AFC.
Burrow is 4th in the league in TDs, tied 1st in the AFC.

Since the Pro Bowl does have a popularity contest aspect to it, I could see the 3 Pro Bowlers being Mahomes, Herbert, and either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson.
I think the next guys after them would be Burrow and Carr.

I wasn't joking that Burrow has a chance at the Pro Bowl. Aside from the INTs, he's having a great year. I think the joke is that so many players decline to play that it results in like 5 QBs from each conference being named as a Pro Bowler.

[thompson19osu]

He will throw over 20. There are plenty of upcoming games where we will get behind multiple scores and will be forced into passing situations.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

8 more games. I'll give him 7 more picks. 18 finish. Not great, but not a red alert either.

[Au165]

(11-08-2021, 03:18 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Burrow is on pace for 20-21 INTs.
He's also on pace for 4716 yards and 37-38 TDs.

Few QBs end up having 20+ INTs on the season but the ones who end up with 30+ TDs along with that are still considered pretty good.
For example, Rivers had 4386 yards, 33 TDs, and led the league with 21 INTs in 2016. He was a Pro Bowler.

When all is said and done, I think Burrow ends up in the 16-18 range for INTs, and I think he ends up with ~35 TDs and 4500 yards.

I think your totals are probably pretty close, the only thing I'd guess though is we come out of the bye with a renewed focus to run the ball so I could see a dip early across the board that may cause everything to be 5-10% lower. 

[WhodeyRay]

I don't think he makes it to the end of the season. Also how can anyone judge him? The guy is running for his life. Any human on earth would be shell shocked. I don't care if it is Brady, Manning or Maholmes. The entire Brown family and their adopted son Tobin should be tied up and beaten with a wet hose for ruining a very promising qb.

[Au165]

(11-08-2021, 05:50 PM)WhodeyRay Wrote: I don't think he makes it to the end of the season. Also how can anyone judge him?  The guy is running for his life. Any human on earth would be shell shocked. I don't care if it is Brady, Manning or Maholmes. The entire Brown family and their adopted son Tobin should be tied up and beaten with a wet hose for ruining a very promising qb.

He is the 12th (minimum 200 attempts) least pressured QB in the league based on percentage of drop backs he has faced pressure. It is a myth in the league that there are a bunch of QB's standing around with no pressure in their face. He is however one of the worst in the league at pressures converting to sacks (4th). He no longer evades pressure and strikes, which I think is still fallout from the knee injury.

[Bengalfan4life27c]

ESPN's QBR stat which I don't really trust. Burrow QBR had him at 56.2 last year 48.8 this year it means he is regressing. everything else is up except INT%. You could extrapolate that and worry he could be getting worse. Taylor turning Burrow into Winston

[Au165]

(11-08-2021, 06:03 PM)Bengalfan4life27c Wrote: ESPN's QBR stat which I don't really trust. Burrow QBR had him at 56.2 last year 48.8 this year it means he is regressing. everything else is up except INT%. You could extrapolate that and worry he could be getting worse.  Taylor turning Burrow into Winston

Burrow isn't close to Winston, I actually threw those stats out the other day in another related thread. His play is still upper half of the NFL overall but I think in the bye week we have to work to try to take more MoFO shots, adding bump fakes, and looking off defenders. He is in many cases dissecting the play right pre snap but he is almost getting to his receiver TOO quick which isn't good as he then is watching them waiting for them to correctly uncover but it allows defenders to drive too easily. 

[*Awful Llama*]

(11-08-2021, 02:10 PM)jason Wrote: Where's a nickname thread when you need it? The guy's playing like he wants to be called Sloppy Joe.

(11-08-2021, 02:50 PM)kalibengal Wrote: The record for most INTs ina season os by GB (George Blanda) in 1962- 42 picks
so "sloppy Joe has a ways to go"

If you look strictly at marquee Bengals QBs,  Kenny and Boomer each tossed 22 in a season (Kenny did his in only 12 games in 1978, remarkably), while Carson and Andy each had 20 at one point.  So, from what we've seen from that group, "Sloppy Joe" doesn't actually have that far to go.  

Having said that, and I cannot emphasize this enough, I'm pulling for the kid and I sincerely hope he gets no where near 22 unless he's thrown 44+ TDs along with that.  

[MasonDT70]

Burrows play this year reminds me of 2018 Ryan Fitzpatrick. High td%, int%, yard per attempt, and yards per completion. Hes basically what if fitz was a good qb.

[*ochocincos*]

(11-08-2021, 05:34 PM)Au165 Wrote: I think your totals are probably pretty close, the only thing I'd guess though is we come out of the bye with a renewed focus to run the ball so I could see a dip early across the board that may cause everything to be 5-10% lower. 

Maybe, but this offense isn't built to be a run-oriented offense.

[Essex Johnson]

(11-08-2021, 03:18 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Burrow is on pace for 20-21 INTs.
He's also on pace for 4716 yards and 37-38 TDs.

Few QBs end up having 20+ INTs on the season but the ones who end up with 30+ TDs along with that are still considered pretty good.
For example, Rivers had 4386 yards, 33 TDs, and led the league with 21 INTs in 2016. He was a Pro Bowler.

When all is said and done, I think Burrow ends up in the 16-18 range for INTs, and I think he ends up with ~35 TDs and 4500 yards.

I will live with Ints if it means wins, probably is Burrow's had some very costly timing ones and have helped lead to the losses.. so lets right that ship.. need some wins with those Ints

[*ochocincos*]

(11-08-2021, 06:53 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: I will live with Ints if it means wins, probably is Burrow's had some very costly timing ones and have helped lead to the losses.. so lets right that ship.. need some wins with those Ints

Well we are seeing wins even with the INTs...they have a winning record at 5-4.
If the team ends up at like 7-10 or worse, then the INTs matter more.