Burrow's decision making has been terrible

[CJD]

You know, when Dalton was our QB, I held my breath every time he dropped back because you never knew how open the receiver he was targeting actually was. Dalton seemed to favor Green even when he was triple covered, meaning each time he let go of the ball you, the viewer, had no idea if the person he was targeting was open or if Dalton was just throwing caution to the wind and hoping Green beat his man.

I loved that in Burrow's rookie year, he didn't play favorites, he just threw to the open man. In 404 attempts, he only threw 5 interceptions. I began to stop worrying so much every time our QB dropped back to pass. I knew that if that ball was coming out of Joe's hands, the odds were high the receiver he was throwing to was open and just had to make the catch. And, in hindsight, maybe this was because he didn't intrinsically trust his receivers to, against all odds and any coverage, win every time he threw to them.

I am beginning to worry Burrow is forcing the ball to Chase like Dalton forced it to Green. That may be the cause of his incredibly high interception rate. The interception against the Ravens is a perfect example. Burrow had no reason to throw that pick in the end zone but, for whatever reason, he said "Chase will win if I put it up to him." Chase was covered and, due to the arc of the ball, became double covered as the other defender came off of Perine once the ball was in the air...and it was picked.

I know that Burrow trusts Chase to get open and I know Chase has an uncanny ability to win with the ball in the air, but that doesn't mean you have to force the ball to him.

Obviously, you can take pretty much any stat from the last 2 weeks and create a negative narrative around it, but he has been targeted 22 times in the last 2 games and only has 9 receptions. That's a 41% completion percentage when targeting Chase.

In the first 7 weeks, he was targeted 51 times and had 35 receptions, or a 69% completion percentage.

His averages in the last 2 weeks have been 8.2 ypc and 10.7 ypc, compared to his formerly NFL leading 21.5 ypc in the first 7 weeks.

Chase is obviously the most explosive receiver on the team and I appreciate that, but you should still only throw to him when he's actually open. I really hope Joe gets his head right and starts throwing to the open receiver again.

[Sled21]

I'd have to go back and count, but it seems to me like a good number of Burrow's interceptions this year have come from tipped balls, either at the line, or off the hands of the receivers. He has had his number of bad passes, but you can't blame him for receivers tipping the ball off their hands and it being intercepted.

[fredtoast]

(11-09-2021, 10:30 AM)Sled21 Wrote: I'd have to go back and count, but it seems to me like a good number of Burrow's interceptions this year have come from tipped balls, either at the line, or off the hands of the receivers. He has had his number of bad passes, but you can't blame him for receivers tipping the ball off their hands and it being intercepted.

But he also threw a ball directly to a Viking defender that Boyd was able to pull away for a reception instead of a pick.

[*rfaulk34*]

(11-09-2021, 09:17 AM)Fan_in_Kettering Wrote: Not all pressure comes from blitzes.

Post #33

(11-09-2021, 02:00 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Burrow has the 8th best quarterback rating while under pressure. 

[TheCincinnatiKid]

I don't really know what to make of Burrow right now. First 6 games I'd have said 'yeah some picks in there, but some of them have been pretty unfortunate... guy has a crappy OL etc'... but now, you could make a decent point that he's costing us wins. Defence is a mess, but the past 2 weeks Burrow has made big mistakes at the worst times. He also did so against the Packers, and he put us in a hole against the Bears.

I guess with that in mind.. he seems to be a big factor when we lose, which isn't great. I definitely think he's a talented QB and has the potential to be a great one for us, but he's definitely patchy.

Big takeaway is that it is Year 1.5 for the guy. Didn't play out his rookie year. His completion rate is up and his TDs are way up. As are his INTs. More boom/bust this year with him it seems. If he can slow down on throwing interceptions I think his game is largely going where we want it to.

[*PhilHos*]

(11-09-2021, 02:34 PM)TheCincinnatiKid Wrote: I don't really know what to make of Burrow right now. First 6 games I'd have said 'yeah some picks in there, but some of them have been pretty unfortunate... guy has a crappy OL etc'... but now, you could make a decent point that he's costing us wins. Defence is a mess, but the past 2 weeks Burrow has made big mistakes at the worst times. He also did so against the Packers, and he put us in a hole against the Bears.

I guess with that in mind.. he seems to be a big factor when we lose, which isn't great. I definitely think he's a talented QB and has the potential to be a great one for us, but he's definitely patchy.

Big takeaway is that it is Year 1.5 for the guy. Didn't play out his rookie year. His completion rate is up and his TDs are way up. As are his INTs. More boom/bust this year with him it seems. If he can slow down on throwing interceptions I think his game is largely going where we want it to.

Dude is like top 10 in the league in QB rating and that's WITH all his INTs. Can't discount the INT as not being an issue, but dude has still played pretty well for the most part this season. 

IMO, the bigger issue offensively is, of course, the offensive line and the running game.

[Joelist]

I'm happy for his Passer Rating and such but the bad decisions have got to stop. These aren't forced throws or his arm being hit or other such - they are plan old bad decisions. For any QB these are problematic but ESPECIALLY for Burrow - remember he is #1OA and his scoring specifically lauded his ability to process information quickly and make good decisions.

[*PhilHos*]

(11-09-2021, 03:04 PM)Joelist Wrote: I'm happy for his Passer Rating and such but the bad decisions have got to stop.

I don't think ANYONE is saying otherwise.

(11-09-2021, 03:04 PM)Joelist Wrote: For any QB these are problematic but ESPECIALLY for Burrow - remember he is #1OA and his scoring specifically lauded his ability to process information quickly and make good decisions.

You know, I find it interesting how soooooooooooooooooooooooooo many young QBS always seem to need to work on decision making. You'd almost think it was a youth thing and the good ones learn to figure things out. 

[fredtoast]

(11-09-2021, 03:04 PM)Joelist Wrote: remember he is #1OA and his scoring specifically lauded his ability to process information quickly and make good decisions.

If the problem was his ability to read defenses or process data then he would have thrown a ton of ints last year when he had zero experience in the NFL.  But he had the THIRD LOWEST interception percentage in the league.

His problem right now is ego/overconfidence.  Remember all the talk about how much stronger his arm was this year.  I think that went to his head.

[*rfaulk34*]

(11-09-2021, 03:13 PM)PhilHos Wrote: I don't think ANYONE is saying otherwise.


You know, I find it interesting how soooooooooooooooooooooooooo many young QBS always seem to need to work on decision making. You'd almost think it was a youth thing and the good ones learn to figure things out. 

Crazy, aimiright??!!

[fredtoast]

(11-09-2021, 03:13 PM)PhilHos Wrote: You know, I find it interesting how soooooooooooooooooooooooooo many young QBS always seem to need to work on decision making. You'd almost think it was a youth thing and the good ones learn to figure things out. 

(11-09-2021, 03:39 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Crazy, aimiright??!!

Well, yeah, it does sound kind of crazy when you consider that last year Burrow had the third lowest interception percentage in the league (1.2).

I haven't checked, but I am pretty sure that Burrow was younger and less experienced last year than he is now when he is leading the league in interceptions (11) and 30th in interception percentage (3.8).

[*Nately120*]

(11-09-2021, 03:25 PM)fredtoast Wrote: If the problem was his ability to read defenses or process data then he would have thrown a ton of ints last year when he had zero experience in the NFL.  But he had the THIRD LOWEST interception percentage in the league.

His problem right now is ego/overconfidence.  Remember all the talk about how much stronger his arm was this year.  I think that went to his head.

Right now he has 11 INTs on 286 attempts and last year he had 5 INTs on 404 attempts.

I wouldn't pull the alarm quite yet, but I'll also recognize when Ben/Baker/Lamar have such statically-notable setbacks we do the dance of joy.

[Sled21]

(11-09-2021, 12:33 PM)fredtoast Wrote: But he also threw a ball directly to a Viking defender that Boyd was able to pull away for a reception instead of a pick.

Right, I'm not absolving him of all of them, but some of them are on the receivers. But when people look simply at the number, they don't see that. He's only in his 2nd year, he's going to make mistakes. The good thing is he seems to learn from them.

[Shake n Blake]

(11-09-2021, 07:19 AM)NUGDUKWE Wrote: Boyd scored against the Jets

Correct. So let me adjust that and say Boyd has 1 TD in 7 games with Chase/Higgins, and 1 TD and a 118 yard game in the 2 games Tee missed.

(11-09-2021, 08:54 AM)NUGDUKWE Wrote: To me this is the problem. Boyd should be averaging the most targets. At this point in all our WR careers he's the most consistent and reliable. 9 for 118 is solid I know what Chase has been doing is amazing but he is still struggling with drops and he still makes rookie mistakes and Higgins is having his own struggles this season.

I think we just need to do a better job of getting Boyd involved and taking advantage of mismatches. We have 3 WRs capable of 1000 yard seasons. That should mean we have a mismatch most weeks.

...and if they don't think Boyd is good enough to be a mismatch as the 3rd/slot WR, then we need to trade his $10 million contract. Because right now he's looking like a 500 yard guy with the way we're using him.

[*Nately120*]

(11-09-2021, 04:06 PM)Sled21 Wrote: Right, I'm not absolving him of all of them, but some of them are on the receivers. But when people look simply at the number, they don't see that. He's only in his 2nd year, he's going to make mistakes. The good thing is he seems to learn from them.

Oy, he'd better.  The fact that Burrow and Darnold are tied for the most INTs in the league at the moment and Darnold has 20 more pass attempts is a bit concerning. 

[muskiesfan]

While some won't admit it, there are plenty that take a criticism of Burrow personally. Listen, I love the guy and I think he's great. He's young and the upside is tremendous. He is making some poor throws and poor decisions. Both can be true at the same time. It's not trying to tear Burrow down or take away from his talent. I believe he will be a top 5 QB. He just needs to clean some things up.

Pointing out mistakes shouldn't lead to the gang going after someone. I understand some players get dubbed untouchable, but criticism is fine. If someone were saying we should replace Burrow or that he was garbage, I would agree that the person has no idea what they are talking about. Much like saying Burrow doesn't do well under pressure when he absolutely kills it under pressure.

At least here I'm not seeing the "technically still a rookie" bs that I see elsewhere. He is not a rookie in any sense including technically. Some QBs get it sooner and the game has changed, but the thought for a long time was 5 seasons. I don't think it will take Burrow that long, but we're only in year 2. He's still learning and developing. The game will slow down. Hopefully one day he will have better blocking as well.

He is locking onto Chase too much and that had to be expected. Chase has had a couple of down weeks as well. We have seen what both of these young players can do and the sky is the limit. Everyone including the all-time greats have off days. There will be more in their careers. The future is bright with those 2 in stripes though.

[Shake n Blake]

(11-09-2021, 05:27 PM)muskiesfan Wrote: While some won't admit it, there are plenty that take a criticism of Burrow personally. Listen, I love the guy and I think he's great. He's young and the upside is tremendous. He is making some poor throws and poor decisions. Both can be true at the same time. It's not trying to tear Burrow down or take away from his talent. I believe he will be a top 5 QB. He just needs to clean some things up.

Pointing out mistakes shouldn't lead to the gang going after someone. I understand some players get dubbed untouchable, but criticism is fine. If someone were saying we should replace Burrow or that he was garbage, I would agree that the person has no idea what they are talking about. Much like saying Burrow doesn't do well under pressure when he absolutely kills it under pressure.

At least here I'm not seeing the "technically still a rookie" bs that I see elsewhere. He is not a rookie in any sense including technically. Some QBs get it sooner and the game has changed, but the thought for a long time was 5 seasons. I don't think it will take Burrow that long, but we're only in year 2. He's still learning and developing. The game will slow down. Hopefully one day he will have better blocking as well.

He is locking onto Chase too much and that had to be expected. Chase has had a couple of down weeks as well. We have seen what both of these young players can do and the sky is the limit. Everyone including the all-time greats have off days. There will be more in their careers. The future is bright with those 2 in stripes though.

This just seems like an issue all through society right now. It's either all or nothing. If you criticize something, you must hate it. If you love something, you must protect it from any and all criticism. I'm sure somewhere on the internet, there is a forum for Pepsi fans, and if you criticize Crystal Pepsi, you'll be deemed a hater.

[*rfaulk34*]

(11-09-2021, 03:45 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Well, yeah, it does sound kind of crazy when you consider that last year Burrow had the third lowest interception percentage in the league (1.2).

I haven't checked, but I am pretty sure that Burrow was younger and less experienced last year than he is now when he is leading the league in interceptions (11) and 30th in interception percentage (3.8).

If we get in the way-back machine, all the way back to 2011, Andy Dalton was asked to throw the ball away and live to play another down. The following offseason, it was talked about how he needed to start extending plays. The result was more TDs the next 2 years but also more INTs. Then the talk was about cutting down on the INTs. 

Burrow knows he needs to cut down on the INTs. The Bengals know he needs to cut down on the INTs. Fans know he needs to cut down on the INTs. All while still throwing touchdowns. 

It doesn't happen overnight. Especially to a QB in his 2nd year. Bengals fans are jaded and scarred from all the previous years of let downs. If anyone wants to remain sane for the good times to come, they need to learn how to step back and allow the process to develop. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(11-09-2021, 04:06 PM)Sled21 Wrote: Right, I'm not absolving him of all of them, but some of them are on the receivers. But when people look simply at the number, they don't see that. He's only in his 2nd year, he's going to make mistakes. The good thing is he seems to learn from them.

You don't know fire is hot until you try and touch it.

[*bengalfan74*]

(11-09-2021, 06:14 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: If we get in the way-back machine, all the way back to 2011, Andy Dalton was asked to throw the ball away and live to play another down. The following offseason, it was talked about how he needed to start extending plays. The result was more TDs the next 2 years but also more INTs. Then the talk was about cutting down on the INTs. 

Burrow knows he needs to cut down on the INTs. The Bengals know he needs to cut down on the INTs. Fans know he needs to cut down on the INTs. All while still throwing touchdowns. 

It doesn't happen overnight. Especially to a QB in his 2nd year. Bengals fans are jaded and scarred from all the previous years of let downs. If anyone wants to remain sane for the good times to come, they need to learn how to step back and allow the process to develop.

I agree and I'm trying.

We can't expect Burrow to be mistake free 18 games in or whatever it is.