We still haven't seen Burrow's ceiling yet

[Mer]

(12-09-2021, 01:17 PM)Sled21 Wrote: He's only in year 2, with a shortened year 1. Why are we even discussing if he's hit his ceiling? Lunacy... sheer lunacy

True and I may be expecting too much from him already.

[Sled21]

I just find the whole conversation bizarre. Like I said, he's in year 2 after a shortened year 1. The Bengals have the 6th toughest schedule in the NFL this year, they're 7-5 and right in the middle of the Division Championship race 1 game behind the leader. They swept the Stealer and will most likely sweep the Ravens. Burrow is right with the tops of the league in stats, and people are complaining about him.

[*jason*]

(12-09-2021, 02:16 PM)Sled21 Wrote: I just find the whole conversation bizarre. Like I said, he's in year 2 after a shortened year 1. The Bengals have the 6th toughest schedule in the NFL this year, they're 7-5 and right in the middle of the Division Championship race 1 game behind the leader. They swept the Stealer and will most likely sweep the Ravens. Burrow is right with the tops of the league in stats, and people are complaining about him.

I mean I hope so, but what are we basing this likely sweep of Baltimore on? Both teams are inconsistent as all get out. Who knows which ones show up for the rematch?

[Sled21]

(12-09-2021, 02:20 PM)jason Wrote: I mean I hope so, but what are we basing this likely sweep of Baltimore on? Both teams are inconsistent as all get out. Who knows which ones show up for the rematch?

I'm basing it on Lamar is not playing well at all and they just lost Marlon Humphrie. Lou had the D dialed up for them last time. But, we are now missing Wilson. But, without Humphrie they will really struggle with Chase and Higgins. So, I think a win is likely, but not guaranteed by any means.

[grampahol]

(12-09-2021, 09:15 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: I officially quit GDT’s for good a couple weeks ago. Best decision ever.

The great delirium tremens?  I quit drinking too..

[grampahol]

(12-09-2021, 02:16 PM)Sled21 Wrote: I just find the whole conversation bizarre. Like I said, he's in year 2 after a shortened year 1. The Bengals have the 6th toughest schedule in the NFL this year, they're 7-5 and right in the middle of the Division Championship race 1 game behind the leader. They swept the Stealer and will most likely sweep the Ravens. Burrow is right with the tops of the league in stats, and people are complaining about him.

It's a Pavlovian response thing. We're not winning every single game by a bagillion points and all H E double dirty Q-tips breaks out.. Let's take a stroll back to before September shall we? Anyone who predicted we'd be in 2nd place in the division and swept the squeelers and 6th in the league at stopping the run (????) would have been deemed delusional at best.

[Tony]

(12-08-2021, 10:39 PM)Fan_in_Kettering Wrote: We will never see Joe Burrow’s ceiling as long as he keeps landing violently on the floor.

That's last high low hit he took scared the shit outta me.. I thought he was done... 

[Tony]

(12-09-2021, 01:23 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Every player should get better every year.  So technically you could say that we never see his ceiling.

But I don't really know of any great QBs who made big significant improvements after two years as a starter.  Burrow should continue to improve on some small things, but nothing close to a 40%+ increase like the OP is talking about.

Tom ***** Brady.. Peyton Manning.. Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, I could go on and on...

[*bengalfan74*]

(12-09-2021, 02:16 PM)Sled21 Wrote: I just find the whole conversation bizarre. Like I said, he's in year 2 after a shortened year 1. The Bengals have the 6th toughest schedule in the NFL this year, they're 7-5 and right in the middle of the Division Championship race 1 game behind the leader. They swept the Stealer and will most likely sweep the Ravens. Burrow is right with the tops of the league in stats, and people are complaining about him.

Me to for the most part. 

I remember a study several years ago and IIRC most NFL QB's don't hit their stride until like years 4-6 or somewhere in there ? It takes time and experience to learn what works and what doesn't at the NFL level.

There's just so many things that play a part. How good is the Oline, the WR's, the coaching, play calling, the running game, just on and on. 

I believe Joe still has much improvement in him. Can I place a % number on it ? NO

[Joelist]

You can note where a QB needs to improve without automatically being down on the QB. Burrow brings a lot of good things but right now there ARE some issues as well. He IS holding the ball longish, he DOES need to improve pocket awareness and DOES need to move more in the pocket and he DOES need to exercise more discretion in taking the less risky play (to cut the INTs down). A lot of what he does is good (like his ball placement and accuracy/touch) and he has an attitude that picks up the whole offense. But there are places to improve.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-09-2021, 01:44 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Love these little slow-mo tracking shots of Burrow’s ball placement. Even with a busted pinky finger his accuracy was just crazy.

.@Bengals @JoeyB even down 24-0 the #Bengals realize with this QB you always always always have a chance to win. Disappointing loss but the fans who watched this saw 2 great young QB’s dual it out. #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/vogVgNteTg

— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) December 8, 2021

Yeah, dude is special no doubt about it. Like Baldinger said, we always have a chance with Joe Burrow.

[NotBigzo]

(12-08-2021, 07:37 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I think he's talking about the Palmer who threw 20 INTs in 2007 and 2010.

CP was borderline elite, but he was also very INT prone by modern standards.

I think what he's trying to say is that Burrow is showing that borderline elite ability, but is throwing too many picks...ala Palmer. I agree.

Now now don’t bring reasonable inferences and context into this thread. How else will fast fried Freddy cook up some obscene stats to obfuscate stuff?

[Shake n Blake]

(12-09-2021, 09:28 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Maybe so.

I forgot I was talking to one of those guys who ignores everything positive that ever happened with this team.  I mean even Ken Anderson sucks if you ignore the 4 times he led the league in passer rating and instead just remember how he played from '77-'80.




See what I mean?  Just the mention of a Bengal doing something positive is considered "obscene"

1. Palmer had more INTs than games played for his entire career. So it wasn't just a season or two.

2. Again...I don't think he was saying Palmer and Burrow "suck". More that Palmer was an elite talent who was prone to throwing (often dumb) picks.

This year, Burrow has shown a similar tendency. I think it's a fair point. Instead of focusing on the poster and whether or not you think he's a "troll" or not (his story checks out, btw), maybe focus on his point?

[Sled21]

(12-09-2021, 04:20 PM)Joelist Wrote: You can note where a QB needs to improve without automatically being down on the QB. Burrow brings a lot of good things but right now there ARE some issues as well. He IS holding the ball longish, he DOES need to improve pocket awareness and DOES need to move more in the pocket and he DOES need to exercise more discretion in taking the less risky play (to cut the INTs down). A lot of what he does is good (like his ball placement and accuracy/touch) and he has an attitude that picks up the whole offense. But there are places to improve.

Totally agree, however I was referring to the JA's who were wanting to send Burrow to LA and keep Herbert, and all the lines of thought that went on in that thread. I only check in to the GD thread usually at the half to see how many are on the edge, but some people should just go back and reread what they wrote and be ashamed to call themselves fans.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

(12-09-2021, 10:14 AM)Mer Wrote: To the OP.

I hope you're right and we haven't seen Burrow's ceiling yet, but he's been showing signs that are starting to creep in a little concern for me. 1. He seems to be staring down his target before he throws. 2. The interceptions are getting a little concerning. Even though, I realize, a good percentage of those were tipped balls or miscommunication, there is still that head scratcher he throws to frequently. 3. The last thing I've been seeing recently is he seems to be hearing footsteps in the pocket and giving up on the play before anyone touches him. I haven't seen this last one a lot, but enough that I'm bringing it up.

I'm hoping these things are just a blip in his HOF career and he gets them worked out. I was extremely excited when we drafted him and I still believe he can be our GOAT.

Addressing your concerns
1) 100% agree. If he's already decided to go to this receiver, look elsewhere first to draw defenders away, then go back and hit his man. Watch tapes of Marino, who, in my opinion, was the best at reading pre-snap defenses 
2) I think that's just going to be his style. We all want Brady 2.0 . . . Looks like he's going to be more like Favre 2.0. At times it's just going to be frustrating. We'll all have to deal with it in our own way. Ask PackerBacker what it's like.
3) We can go round and round on this. One side says he holds onto the ball too long and he's starting to learn to get rid of it sooner and the other side will say he's leaving potential plays on the field. Until this o-line improves to top 10 in the league, I'm on team 'get rid of the ball, live to fight another play'.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(12-09-2021, 06:48 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: 1. Palmer had more INTs than games played for his entire career. So it wasn't just a season or two.

Other than 2004, he was actually never really far from average in INT%.

In 2005 when he threw 12 on 509 attempts, that was actually 13% above average in avoiding INTs that year. Mahomes has thrown 12 INT on 478 attempts so far this year and that's 5% below average.

Palmer's INT%+ as a Bengal...

2004: 83
2005: 113
2006: 110
2007: 93
2008: 98  (Only 4 games.)
2009: 102
2010: 94

If you add them all together and divide by 7, you get 99. Or almost dead on league average (100).

This is not a bash on Joe Burrow, but in 2021 he's at 73 INT%+, so significantly worse than Palmer's worst year as a Bengal. (He was at 118 last year, so better than any year than Palmer as a Bengal.) The game has just changed to where the rules favor offenses so much that the number of INTs thrown in the past being normal is now quite abnormal by today's standards. 

A good example is Burrow's 68.3% completion this year is higher than any year Palmer ever had as a Bengal... but Burrow's CMP%+ is 113, and Palmer had 2 years better than that as a Bengal in 2005 and 2007. It's all about comparisons to the average of that year, the only way you can even begin to compare players from different years.