Bengals Now Outside Looking In for Playoffs, Do They Make It?

[motoarch]

(12-13-2021, 10:43 AM)jj22 Wrote: I voted no. But we were never supposed to either. What is interesting is that the Browns, left for dead, will likely take the division and return to the playoffs.

I think it comes down to the final week of play.  The schedule for the Ravens is tough and they haven't been great; GB, Bengals, Rams and Steelers.  They might not win any of those.

I believe both the Bengals and Browns head into week 18 with the final game deciding who wins the division.

[WeezyBengal]

(12-12-2021, 10:29 PM)Chip Smallwood Wrote: The Bengals are the best team in their division, although the division seems more mediocre than it did a few weeks ago.

They’ll get in via the division crown.

This division is not good. I said that earlier this week and got crucified for it. 

[*ochocincos*]

(12-13-2021, 11:22 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: This division is not good. I said that earlier this week and got crucified for it. 

Number of wins by division:
AFC West - 30
AFC North - 28.5
AFC East - 25
AFC South - 20

So the only AFC division better than the North is the West.

If we expand out to the NFC:
NFC West - 30
NFC South - 27
NFC East - 25
NFC North - 21.5


So the AFC North has more wins than 5 other divisions.
So I would say the division is "good" but it's not "great."
"Great" is reserved only for the AFC West and NFC West.

[KillerGoose]

(12-13-2021, 11:22 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: This division is not good. I said that earlier this week and got crucified for it. 

Pretty spot on. Using SRS, which takes into account Margin of Victory and Strength of Schedule to give teams a rating, the AFC North has the 5th best SRS. The NFC West is by far the best division, and the best division in the AFC is the AFC West, followed by AFC East. The thing with the AFC North is three of the four teams are considered average teams, so it makes it look better than other divisions where there might be only two good teams and two really bad teams. 

No one in the North is a serious contender for anything this year. Likely early playoff exit.

[TheCincinnatiKid]

Nope. I've just run a playoff predictor and I don't think the Bengals make it.

According to me, 9-8 will get the Colts in at #7 so we'll need 10 wins. I did have us winning in Denver and beating the Ravens too.

Kansas is the problem game. I just don't see us winning that under any circumstances. Even if we play great I think we lose that one.

The Browns handled us first game.... we'll need to beat them but unfortunately I think it's more likely we'll lose. I also had the Browns going 9-8 (with them winning against us) and so they will have something to play for in the final week according to me. If they're already eliminated then it could change things of course. They didn't make it in as I have the Colts also winning in Week 18.

tl;dr - We need to beat the Broncos, Ravens and Browns. I think it's doable, but the unlikely. The Bengals must have no more games where they play like the Bengals to make it.

[SouthernFan]

Only way in is to win the division. Don’t see a wild card coming from AFC North. Final game with Browns shaping up to be the decider. Hope springs eternal!

If not, there’s always next year. The tired lament of a long suffering Bengals fan.

[kalibengal]

(12-12-2021, 10:21 PM)jason Wrote: Nope

After the last 2 HOME games and seeing how badly prepared they are ...no way.
Zac has a glaring issue...his team seems to always come out flat, uninterested, uninspired and takes until the clock is running out to wake up.
thats not a sign  of good NFL coaching.  
Broncos are a tough team at home...I just dont see it and i have ZERO confidence in  ZT making the right decisions, play calls etc. 
Hopefully he understands the issue playing in Denver and having less Oxygen. ..seriously I honestly am concerned he doesnt have a clue.

**** Im waiting to hear Phillips being cut. That has to happen  TODAY.  

[Sled21]

Wasn't Phillips the guy who was posting on twitter last year about them wasting his talent?

[KillerGoose]

(12-13-2021, 12:28 PM)Sled21 Wrote: Wasn't Phillips the guy who was posting on twitter last year about them wasting his talent?

I guess that's one way to read into it. His post just said "Don't waste talent". It was also posted in the middle of the week, coming off of the beating by the Ravens, where he played a significant amount of snaps. He had been playing a significant amount of snaps all season. 

I'm fairly certain it was referencing a different player, not himself. 

[*ochocincos*]

(12-13-2021, 12:06 PM)TheCincinnatiKid Wrote: Nope. I've just run a playoff predictor and I don't think the Bengals make it.

According to me, 9-8 will get the Colts in at #7 so we'll need 10 wins. I did have us winning in Denver and beating the Ravens too.

Kansas is the problem game. I just don't see us winning that under any circumstances. Even if we play great I think we lose that one.

The Browns handled us first game.... we'll need to beat them but unfortunately I think it's more likely we'll lose. I also had the Browns going 9-8 (with them winning against us) and so they will have something to play for in the final week according to me. If they're already eliminated then it could change things of course. They didn't make it in as I have the Colts also winning in Week 18.

tl;dr - We need to beat the Broncos, Ravens and Browns. I think it's doable, but the unlikely. The Bengals must have no more games where they play like the Bengals to make it.

Chargers have Chiefs, Texans, Broncos, and Raiders. I think they win 2-3 of those, ending at 10 or 11 wins.
Bills play Panthers, Pats, Falcons, Jets. I think they go 3-1, ending at 10-7.
Colts get to play the Jags, Raiders, Pats, and Cardinals. I think they go 2-2 in those, ending at 9-8.


So I also think that if the Bengals don't win 3 games, there's a decent chance they don't make the playoffs.
I think the only chance they have to make it with 9 wins is tiebreakers.

[*ochocincos*]

(12-13-2021, 12:32 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I guess that's one way to read into it. His post just said "Don't waste talent". It was also posted in the middle of the week, coming off of the beating by the Ravens, where he played a significant amount of snaps. He had been playing a significant amount of snaps all season. 

I'm fairly certain it was referencing a different player, not himself. 

I believe that player was AJ Green, but purely a guess.

[KillerGoose]

(12-13-2021, 12:47 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I believe that player was AJ Green, but purely a guess.

Yeah, maybe Dunlap as well. Dunlap played less than half of the snaps against the Ravens in that game. 

[QueenCity]

I haven't felt this dejected over a Bengals game since the Wildcard collapse. Really hard to be a Bengals fan the last two weeks.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(12-13-2021, 12:52 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Yeah, maybe Dunlap as well. Dunlap played less than half of the snaps against the Ravens in that game. 

Could have maybe been Geno, too? Pacman had that video last year going off about Lou making one of the best 3T’s in the league play nose guard.

[fredtoast]

(12-12-2021, 10:31 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Four games to go in the season and we still control our own destiny.

Raise your hand if you would have taken that to start the season.

Of course everyone here would have taken it.

In fact with the amount of money we have spent on free agents and the luck we had getting Burrow, fans should have EXPECTED that this year.

But the Niners and Chargers are both "borderline" playoff teams.  If you can't bet those teams on your own home field then you are not going to make the playoffs.

[fredtoast]

(12-13-2021, 12:32 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I guess that's one way to read into it. His post just said "Don't waste talent". It was also posted in the middle of the week, coming off of the beating by the Ravens, where he played a significant amount of snaps. He had been playing a significant amount of snaps all season. 

I'm fairly certain it was referencing a different player, not himself. 

Actually Phillips specifically said "especially mine".

Bengals News: Several defenders upset with how they’re being used - Cincy Jungle

I think his tweet was in response to what he was seeing in practice that week.  After playing the lowest percentage of snaps all season (71%) against the Ravens he played less than half of the snaps against the Colts.  I assume he saw his demotion coming and that is why he posted the tweet.  

[KillerGoose]

(12-13-2021, 01:10 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Could have maybe been Geno, too? Pacman had that video last year going off about Lou making one of the best 3T’s in the league play nose guard.

I didn't even think of Geno. Yes, could have been him as well. He played 30% of snaps in that Ravens loss. 

[KillerGoose]

(12-13-2021, 01:23 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Actually Phillips specifically said "especially mine".

Bengals News: Several defenders upset with how they’re being used - Cincy Jungle

I think his tweet was in response to what he was seeing in practice that week.  After playing the lowest percentage of snaps all season (71%) against the Ravens he played less than half of the snaps against the Colts.  I assume he saw his demotion coming and that is why he posted the tweet.  

Ohhhh, good correction. I only saw the original tweet. 

[Essex Johnson]

(12-13-2021, 12:20 AM)ochocincos Wrote: I know they control their own destiny, but that doesn't mean they aren't outside looking in.
Do you really believe the team is going to win 3 or 4 more games?
I don't see how one could confidently think that.
I can see hope, but not belief.

Outside looking in to me is you need help outside of your control, the Bengals control their own way to the division title, they don;t need to win 4, just 3 as long as ravens and browns are part of that, we have tiebreakers on both.  It is not just the Bengals are up and down, the whole division is, I don;t think any team is going 4-0, maybe 3--1.. below is the last 4 games for each

Ravens: Have 3 of 4 at home but they play GB this week at home and have Rams still on schedule with Steelers and have Bengals at our place.. I see 2-2 even with Jackson back, 1-3 if not

Browns- Have Raiders/Bengals at home, GB/Steelers away.. 3-1 to 2-2

Steelers- Titans and Browns at home, Chiefs and Ravens away-  1-3 to 2-2 if Jackson is out...

3-1 with both wins in division to me gets us in,, 2-2 is still a possible winning combo for the division

[Big Boss]

Call my pessimistic but I just don't see a realistic path now.

Baltimore dropped two straight division games. I have a hard time believing they're gonna drop a third.
We aren't beating the Chiefs.
The Browns somehow seem to have our number and they may very well be fighting for a playoff spot themselves.

Best case scenario I see them finishing 9-8. The team has been too undisciplined and unprepared to pull off 3 more wins against the teams left on the schedule. And I'm not even confident that 10 wins gets them in the playoffs.