Update on John Ross Returning a Comp Pick

[*ochocincos*]

While this was posted a few weeks ago, it's worth sharing.
https://www.cincyjungle.com/2021/12/15/22837450/john-ross-bengals-compensatory-pick-update-2022-nfl-draft-new-york-giants-free-agency-news

John Ross is currently sitting at just under 21% of the Giants' offensive snaps, but he's played 33% of the offensive snaps while being active.
It's been known that if Ross played 25% or more of the offensive snaps for the Giants by season's end, he would return a comp pick to the Bengals.
Now that he's dropped below 25% however, that could be in jeopardy.

OverTheCap still expects that Ross's contributions + contract this year should still award the Bengals with a comp pick even though he won't get to 25% of the offensive snaps. The reason is primarily due to the size of the contract ($2.25 mill).

Quote:The compensatory pick process is like assets and liabilities. So long as your assets (departed qualifying free agents) outweigh your liabilities (qualifying free agent signings), you will be rewarded with whatever’s left after the process.

In Cincinnati’s case, they had five free agents depart for qualifying offers and signed just four free agents to deals that would count against the formula. Two of the departed free agents, William Jackson III and Carl Lawson, signed contracts that would count as fourth-round compensatory picks, and Trey Hendrickson is the only free agent they signed whose contract fits in that category. This nets out to a fourth-round comp pick because the three other departures and signings have cancelled each other out.

Korte believes that because other free agent signings of Ross’ caliber have simply not played enough, Ross’ contract is big enough to be included in the formula regardless of how much Ross plays for the rest of the season. It’s not a lock as of now, but it’s at least trending that way.

So it's safe to expect right now that the Bengals will get one 4th round comp pick for Lawson, and possibly get another for Ross.

[leonardfan40]

Thanks for the update! That would be great to get. Would really give us room to add a ton of depth or move up a bit to target a player who drops.

[basballguy]

haha i didn't know he was with the Giants....Before this season i would've argued the only difference between Eli Apple and John Ross is the side of the line of scrimmage they start on...it's only fair John Ross is in New York.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(01-06-2022, 12:09 PM)ochocincos Wrote: While this was posted a few weeks ago, it's worth sharing.
https://www.cincyjungle.com/2021/12/15/22837450/john-ross-bengals-compensatory-pick-update-2022-nfl-draft-new-york-giants-free-agency-news

John Ross is currently sitting at just under 21% of the Giants' offensive snaps, but he's played 33% of the offensive snaps while being active.
It's been known that if Ross played 25% or more of the offensive snaps for the Giants by season's end, he would return a comp pick to the Bengals.
Now that he's dropped below 25% however, that could be in jeopardy.

OverTheCap still expects that Ross's contributions + contract this year should still award the Bengals with a comp pick even though he won't get to 25% of the offensive snaps. The reason is primarily due to the size of the contract ($2.25 mill).


So it's safe to expect right now that the Bengals will get one 4th round comp pick for Lawson, and possibly get another for Ross.

Maybe the Giants will have a SUPER-rare day where they run 80+ offensive plays and he'll be on the field for all of them

[*ochocincos*]

(01-06-2022, 01:16 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: Maybe the Giants will have a SUPER-rare day where they run 80+ offensive plays and he'll be on the field for all of them

Not looking likely. John Ross is a DNP this week in practice with knee.
Even if he wasn't hurt, he's about last on the WR depth chart behind Golladay, Slayton, Toney, and Collin Johnson.
Very likely he'll be inactive.

[kalibengal]

(01-06-2022, 12:42 PM)leonardfan40 Wrote: Thanks for the update! That would be great to get. Would really give us room to add a ton of depth or move up a bit to target a player who drops.

This would be huge to use to move up in 1st rd to nab one of the top Tackles or Cbs 

[Emeritus]

(01-06-2022, 01:40 PM)kalibengal Wrote: This would be huge to use to move up in 1st rd to nab one of the top Tackles or Cbs 

They wouldn't need to move up for a CB or Edge player because of the depth in the draft. Now offensive line depth has a cliff drop off in talent both interior and exterior if your starter hunting. This is an excellent and I mean excellent year for middle rounders to build an offensive line from the dirt. If the money is spent on an above average starter and a few solid vets then this years offseason sets up perfectly for the future. Im talking year two ready guys to compliment FA. A stable of big guys ready to go groomed by Pollack that you find day 3 on. Its extremely deep with prospects that have a great deal of snaps and some captains.
In my opinion you move up for three guys in this draft in this order:

1:Charles Cross T Mississippi State
https://youtu.be/SQQBUEpJcsc

2: Ikem Ekwonu G/T NC State
https://youtu.be/j_Sqqf3nvWc

3) Tyler Linderbuam C Iowa
https://youtu.be/mVsRFegsuzQ

Any one of these prospects should get special attention in the PBS war room ! No cornerback available in this draft would mean more to this organization at this time than one of these three offensive lineman. If so who? And I'll give you a third rounder behind Eli Apple

[NUGDUKWE]

(01-07-2022, 07:45 PM)Emeritus Wrote:

They wouldn't need to move up for a CB or Edge player because of the depth in the draft. Now offensive line depth has a cliff drop off in talent both interior and exterior if your starter hunting. This is an excellent and I mean excellent year for middle rounders to build an offensive line from the dirt. If the money is spent on an above average starter and a few solid vets then this years offseason sets up perfectly for the future. Im talking year two ready guys to compliment FA. A stable of big guys ready to go groomed by Pollack that you find day 3 on. Its extremely deep with prospects that have a great deal of snaps and some captains.
In my opinion you move up for three guys in this draft in this order:

1:Charles Cross T Mississippi State
https://youtu.be/SQQBUEpJcsc

2: Ikem Ekwonu G/T NC State
https://youtu.be/j_Sqqf3nvWc

3) Tyler Linderbuam C Iowa
https://youtu.be/mVsRFegsuzQ

Any one of these prospects should get special attention in the PBS war room ! No cornerback available in this draft would mean more to this organization at this time than one of these three offensive lineman. If so who? And I'll give you a third rounder behind Eli Apple

I like Ikem. This offseason is gonna be so crucial as I think we are so close to having a superbowl level roster. I really hope they can get a lineman or two in free agency. Then they don't have to reach if it doesn't fall the way they want.

[HarleyDog]

John Ross was like a bad stock pick. #1 when you bought it, worth #4 when you were forced to sell and lost tons of cash in the process that paid no dividends.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-07-2022, 08:33 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: John Ross was like a bad stock pick. #1 when you bought it, worth #4 when you were forced to sell and lost tons of cash in the process that paid no dividends.

I still stand by that John Ross should have been used far more in the short routes.
Some of his best work at Washington was catching at the LOS or within 5 yards and getting YAC.
And the biggest fear people had with him in the draft was that his knees would give out due to his college ACL injuries, but they didn't.
He just ended up a perennial dinged up guy with other injuries and too frequently used as a deep threat just because of his speed.

Regardless, he's no longer a Bengal and likely not going to be anything in the NFL at this point, but hopefully he can return a comp pick to give SOMETHING back to the Bengals.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(01-06-2022, 01:40 PM)kalibengal Wrote: This would be huge to use to move up in 1st rd to nab one of the top Tackles or Cbs 

A third round comp pick is nowhere near enough ammo to move up 10+ spots in the first round. Five, if it is late. But alas, we eill get nothing for Ross. 

Using the Jimmy Johnson chart: 

Pick#10:  1,300
Pick#15:  1,050
Pick#20:   850
Pick#25:   720
Pick#30:   620
Pick#97:   112 (the comp pick would be lower than #97) 
Puck#110: 74 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index91c0.html?page_id=6682

[Mobster]

(01-06-2022, 12:09 PM)ochocincos Wrote: While this was posted a few weeks ago, it's worth sharing.
https://www.cincyjungle.com/2021/12/15/22837450/john-ross-bengals-compensatory-pick-update-2022-nfl-draft-new-york-giants-free-agency-news

John Ross is currently sitting at just under 21% of the Giants' offensive snaps, but he's played 33% of the offensive snaps while being active.
It's been known that if Ross played 25% or more of the offensive snaps for the Giants by season's end, he would return a comp pick to the Bengals.
Now that he's dropped below 25% however, that could be in jeopardy.

OverTheCap still expects that Ross's contributions + contract this year should still award the Bengals with a comp pick even though he won't get to 25% of the offensive snaps. The reason is primarily due to the size of the contract ($2.25 mill).


So it's safe to expect right now that the Bengals will get one 4th round comp pick for Lawson, and possibly get another for Ross.

That's not how it works. You get comp picks based on net players signed vs player lost. We're in line to get one 5th round pick total. That could move up to. 4th round pick depending on what Ross ends up being valued at

[*ochocincos*]

(01-25-2022, 01:03 AM)Mobster Wrote: That's not how it works. You get comp picks based on net players signed vs player lost. We're in line to get one 5th round pick total. That could move up to. 4th round pick depending on what Ross ends up being valued at

I know the comp picks are based heavily in net players signed vs lost.
I had read that the Bengals were going to for sure get one for Lawson (4th but would have been a 3rd if he played) and then another possible pick for Ross based on the number of snaps he played and amount he signed for.

[Hammerstripes]

(01-25-2022, 02:36 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I know the comp picks are based heavily in net players signed vs lost.
I had read that the Bengals were going to for sure get one for Lawson (4th but would have been a 3rd if he played) and then another possible pick for Ross based on the number of snaps he played and amount he signed for.

That would be offset by Hendrickson.  I doubt we get much value at all.  

[schroomytunes]

I'm betting we get nothing for John Ross via compensation picks, now a good question regarding the Giants. We have a conditional 7th rd pick from the giants in the Billy Price/BJ Hill trade. I wonder if it triggers?

[*ochocincos*]

(01-27-2022, 07:55 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: That would be offset by Hendrickson.  I doubt we get much value at all.  

Maybe I gave too much credit to the article without checking myself.

FAs added last offseason:
Trey Hendrickson
Riley Reiff
Larry Ogunjobi
Chidobe Awuzie
Mike Hilton
Ricardo Allen

FAs departed last offseason:
AJ Green
John Ross
Carl Lawson
William Jackson
Mackensie Alexander
Shawn Williams
Margus Hunt
Christian Covington
Josh Bynes

Cethan Carter
Randy Bullock

By my count, the Bengals lost more FAs than they gained, right?
Were any of these remaining guys who departed actually released or outside the "window"?

[Hammerstripes]

(01-28-2022, 03:33 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Maybe I gave too much credit to the article without checking myself.

FAs added last offseason:
Trey Hendrickson
Riley Reiff
Larry Ogunjobi
Chidobe Awuzie
Mike Hilton
Ricardo Allen

FAs departed last offseason:
AJ Green
John Ross
Carl Lawson
William Jackson
Mackensie Alexander
Shawn Williams
Margus Hunt
Christian Covington
Josh Bynes

Cethan Carter
Randy Bullock

By my count, the Bengals lost more FAs than they gained, right?
Were any of these remaining guys who departed actually released or outside the "window"?

I'm not sure, but when you look at the quality of guys we brought in, it makes getting a high comp pick much less likely.  Also, there are only so many comp picks so we may get pushed to the back of the line on some of these guys.

[SunsetBengal]

(01-28-2022, 03:33 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Maybe I gave too much credit to the article without checking myself.

FAs added last offseason:
Trey Hendrickson
Riley Reiff
Larry Ogunjobi
Chidobe Awuzie
Mike Hilton
Ricardo Allen

FAs departed last offseason:
AJ Green
John Ross
Carl Lawson
William Jackson
Mackensie Alexander
Shawn Williams
Margus Hunt
Christian Covington
Josh Bynes

Cethan Carter
Randy Bullock

By my count, the Bengals lost more FAs than they gained, right?
Were any of these remaining guys who departed actually released or outside the "window"?

Don't you have to factor the difference in value of the contracts of the players we signed and the players we allowed to sign elsewhere, divided by the hypotenuse of the line opposite Roger Goodell talking to Pete Rozelle while gazing upon Polaris?  Or something like that?

[*ochocincos*]

(01-28-2022, 04:59 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: I'm not sure, but when you look at the quality of guys we brought in, it makes getting a high comp pick much less likely.  Also, there are only so many comp picks so we may get pushed to the back of the line on some of these guys.

It mostly comes down:
1) Did a team lose more FAs than they signed?
2) If 1 is yes, how much did the guys lost and added sign for?
3) How many offensive/defensive snaps (or ST if a K/P/LS) did they play this year?

Bengals lost more FAs than they added, which means they should get at least one pick.

While Hendrickson signed for $15 mill, Lawson signed for $15 mill, so they wash out.
AJ Green signed for $6 mill, Reiff signed for $7.5 mill. That's about a wash.
WJ3 signed for $13.5 mill. Awuzie only signed for $7.25 mill. That's not a wash contract-wise.
Ogunjobi signed for $6.2 mill and Hilton signed for $6 mill.
John Ross signed for $2.25 mill, which from what some are saying, is "enough" to be considered a qualifier.
Mackensie Alexander signed for just over $1 mill, as did Margus Hunt and Josh Bynes.
Randy Bullock signed for $1.75 mill with DET.

So it's probably going to come down to an assessment of #2 and #3 to determine what pick(s) the Bengals would get, but they should get at least one.

[Hammerstripes]

(01-28-2022, 05:43 PM)ochocincos Wrote: It mostly comes down:
1) Did a team lose more FAs than they signed?
2) If 1 is yes, how much did the guys lost and added sign for?
3) How many offensive/defensive snaps (or ST if a K/P/LS) did they play this year?

Bengals lost more FAs than they added, which means they should get at least one pick.

While Hendrickson signed for $15 mill, Lawson signed for $15 mill, so they wash out.
AJ Green signed for $6 mill, Reiff signed for $7.5 mill. That's about a wash.
WJ3 signed for $13.5 mill. Awuzie only signed for $7.25 mill. That's not a wash contract-wise.
Ogunjobi signed for $6.2 mill and Hilton signed for $6 mill.
John Ross signed for $2.25 mill, which from what some are saying, is "enough" to be considered a qualifier.

So it's probably going to come down to an assessment of #2 and #3 to determine what pick(s) the Bengals would get, but they should get at least one.

It's also not strictly based on money, performance also has some factor into it.  I think we still get one, but I'd be shocked if it was higher than a 5th at this point with Ross' late season slide.