Burrow vs Herbert - Who do NFL sources, PFF analysts prefer long-term?

[Johnny Cupcakes]

I’m something of an expert myself…

Now that we have that out there…Give me Joe.

[TecmoBengals]

(01-13-2022, 02:48 PM)Chip Smallwood Wrote: I’m something of an expert myself…

Now that we have that out there…Give me Joe.

QB whisperer?

[*ochocincos*]

(01-13-2022, 02:48 PM)Chip Smallwood Wrote: I’m something of an expert myself…

Now that we have that out there…Give me Joe.

Ok Norman.

[CJD]

The best analogy I've seen for the debate between Burrow and Herbert is that they are similar to Joe Montana and Dan Marino.

They played in the same general time (80s to mid 90s), they were both considered among the best in the game at the time and they were both wildly successful.

Dan Marino had a better arm, was considered more "physically gifted" and put up, generally, more touchdowns and yards than Montana did. But Montana was more accurate and more clutch. They called him Joe Cool for a reason. In the face of pressure, he was able to succeed, which is what we've seen from Joe Burrow early on in his career.

Joe had the "intangibles" that Marino seemingly lacked. Despite being extremely gifted, Marino struggled to find much post season success (relatively speaking). He played in 18 career playoff games and went 8-10, never won a super bowl, only making it to one where he lost to Montana.

Montana, on the other hand, played in 23 career playoff games and went 16-7 with an eye popping 4 super bowl wins.

Coming into the NFL, Marino was a first round pick while Montana was a third round guy. That doesn't exactly translate to the Burrow-Herbert discussion because Burrow was drafted before Herbert and they were both top picks, but I think that's a reflection of how Marino's "tangibles" were valued more than Montana's "intangibles."

So, in a battle of "intangibles" versus "tangibles," Marino was definitely the more physically gifted player, but lacked the "it" factor, similar to Justin Herbert, whereas Joe Burrow does not have the physical gifts that Herbert has, but he has the killer instinct and accuracy to succeed.

Even today, some may consider taking Marino over Montana simply because of his physical gifts, despite Montana clearly having a better ability to win and lead. And the truth is, it may not even be a bad choice. Maybe if Marino had Montana's team, he'd have succeeded as well. We'll never know.

I'm not guaranteeing this by any means but, at the end of their careers, I wouldn't be surprised if Burrow wins multiple Super Bowls while Herbert puts up the superior stats, but falls short more often when it matters most.

[Au165]

(01-13-2022, 01:21 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I think we should also consider Tagovailoa as solid QB, at least as a game manager.
He's 13-8 in 21 starts with a 66% completion for 4467 yards, 27 TDs, 15 INTs.
Add in 237 rush yards and 6 rushing TDs.

Compare that to Hurts, who is 9-10 in 19 starts with a 59% completion for 4205 yards, 22 TDs, 13 INTs.
He's obviously a better rusher, adding in 1138 rush yards and 13 rush TDs.

I almost added him in there, but my god when you watch him stats aside he is really awful at times.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-13-2022, 03:22 PM)Au165 Wrote: I almost added him in there, but my god when you watch him stats aside he is really awful at times.

Hurts has looked awful at times too though.

A couple things I think that would help Tagovailoa are the same things I think that helped Dalton during his best years:
1) A better OL - Basically their entire OL is bad
2) A better run game - Part of this is attributed to #1, but no one is really worried about the likes of Myles Gaskin or Duke Johnson.
3) Healthy pass catchers - Will Fuller was out basically all year, Parker only played about half a season. Waddle and Gesicki were really all they had most of the time.
4) A consistent, good OC - The Dolphins have gone 5 years in a row with a new OC. This past year was with co-OCs. And they weren't good lol.

Get the Dolphins a better OC (or offensive-minded HC who calls plays well), and we might see Tagovailoa do better.

[jj22]

I tried to support Herbert and root for him. But Charger fans have been so ridiculous in their Burrow hate, I can't no longer. I hated to see his 4th quarter almost comeback against the Raiders. And am happy to troll them about him not even making the playoff's. That should shut them up for the offseason at least.

[CJD]

(01-13-2022, 03:22 PM)Au165 Wrote: I almost added him in there, but my god when you watch him stats aside he is really awful at times.

I've seen other people, especially Dolphins fans, say this. I really should watch a game of his sometime, because it's true that his stats seem good. I think he was leading the league in completion percentage until the end of week 17, when Burrow overtook him (He also had a brutal game vs Tenn, to be fair). 6.8 ypa isn't good, but it's the same average Josh Allen had, so it is a little confusing seeing the amount of Tua hate around the NFL subreddit.

Maybe if I watch him, it'll click for me haha.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(01-13-2022, 12:34 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Saw this PFF article posted this morning.
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-joe-burrow-justin-herbert-league-sources-media-pff-analysts-2021

It required premium subscription to read the whole thing, but a lot of it is readable without it.

For those who want a synopsis:
66% of the NFL coaches, executives, and scouts asked by PFF (over a dozen) went with Burrow.
Every front-office executive and coach they polled went with Burrow.
PFF analysts were pretty split - 52% Herbert, 48% Burrow.
Those who went with Herbert like his measurables, arm, athletic ability.
Many who chose Burrow like his "it" factor, leadership, ability to win.

It's worth noting that Burrow actually has the slightly better PFF rating this past year and over their first two seasons.

Both are going to have great careers in my opinion and I think most see this. With Herbert he clearly has the measurables as 
PFF noted but Burrow has rarer traits and he has decent measurables. Burrow can almost always find the open man if he has 
time and when he is healthy has a bit of magic with his legs that I honestly don't see with Herbert or with many QB's.

The accuracy from Burrow and the ability to throw into space so the Receiver can catch the ball in stride also really stands out
to me. Herbert has that big arm and needs big WR's who can go up for the ball like Allen and Mike Williams. Burrow can make
do with smaller WR's as we have seen with Chase.

[Bengalitis]

Hebert really impressed me in the raiders game. Not that they came back, but the number of 4th down conversions he was able to muster. Not any QB can do that, showed his composure and reseliance. Happy with Burrow, but I still don't know how good Burrow is in the 2 minute drill, probably cause he's spoiled with an amazing WR fleet & catching RBs. Tagovailoa & Hurts I havent seen much but stats wise, they look good too. THe only thing that suxs is that Tagovailoa & Herbert are in the AFC.

[Shake n Blake]

- Burrow was better statistically.
- Burrow had more team success.
- When the lights shined brightest, Burrow stepped up while Herbert shrunk.

Anyone who still thinks about Herbert cares more about how a guy looks than how he plays.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-13-2022, 04:43 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: - Burrow was better statistically.
- Burrow had more team success.
- When the lights shined brightest, Burrow stepped up while Herbert shrunk.

Anyone who still thinks about Herbert cares more about how a guy looks than how he plays.

Statistically in some categories, but not all.

This season, Herbert had 403 more passing yards and 4 more passing TDs than Burrow.
Herbert also had 184 more rushing yards and 2 more rushing TDs.

But accuracy, QB Rating, and wins favored Burrow.

I think Burrow would have surpassed Herbert in both yards and TDs though if they had anywhere close to the same number of attempts though.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(01-13-2022, 04:48 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Statistically in some categories, but not all.

This season, Herbert had 403 more passing yards and 4 more passing TDs than Burrow.
Herbert also had 184 more rushing yards and 2 more rushing TDs.

But accuracy, QB Rating, and wins favored Burrow.

I think Burrow would have surpassed Herbert in both yards and TDs though if they had anywhere close to the same number of attempts though.

Also Burrow would of ran for much more yardage than he did if he wasn't coming off a torn up knee.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

(01-13-2022, 04:43 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: - When the lights shined brightest, Burrow stepped up while Herbert shrunk.

I'm not sure this is true. He couldn't have done much more to beat the Raiders than he did. Are you referring to a different game?

Burrow is my guy, but sometimes I think we get carried away with this comparison.

[*bengalfan74*]

(01-13-2022, 01:22 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: The only thing i'll add is, go watch the QB breakdowns from Kurt Warner. It's rare you'll see him say anything negative about Burrow's play and there are a lot of corrections when he breaks down Herbert. Something i never see from PFF or other analysts online. 

Herbert is a very good QB and his arm and athletic ability get him out of a lot of sticky situations, but that stuff doesn't last forever and it doesn't get the job done against really good defenses. Burrow has this uncanny knack of just always throwing to the right guy. There was/is a lot of talk about how you have to be patient against the Raiders defense and take what they give you and Herbert didn't do that. It took an unbelieveable string of luck/talent to convert all those 4th downs. 

Getting back to the two, when i first started watching them in 2019, i was a Herbert fan first. Big, strong, makes all the throws, moves well and Burrow looked kind of sluggish. The more i watched them, the more i started noticing that Burrow would just always find the open guy and take what was given to him instead of throwing into coverage, trying to hit big plays. 

My opinion is that Burrow has a much more sustainable game going forward. Herbert will probably always have big numbers in yards and TDs but i don't know that he's equipped to play how he needs to in big games against big teams. I believe Burrow is.

Agree, Burrow just has that "it" factor that's hard to sum up in a few words. I don't believe Herbert does.

(01-13-2022, 01:30 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Herbert reminds of someone like Philip Rivers or Carson Palmer.
Will have a good career but probably not win much in the postseason.


Burrow is more like Brady in my eyes. May not lead the lead the league statistically many years but he makes calculated, accurate throws and ultimately wins more.

Agree, he's got the big arm but I'm just not so sure it's enough in the long run ?

[Johnny Cupcakes]

(01-13-2022, 04:43 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: - When the lights shined brightest, Burrow stepped up while Herbert shrunk.

Disagreed on this one. Herbert played very well when his team needed him to step up the most. His team just couldn’t reciprocate that for him. He’s already really good, and like Burrow, he will get better.

With that said. We have Joe Burrow, who, in my opinion, is better than Herbert in pretty much every way. I take him without hesitation.

[Shake n Blake]

(01-13-2022, 04:48 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Statistically in some categories, but not all.

This season, Herbert had 403 more passing yards and 4 more passing TDs than Burrow.
Herbert also had 184 more rushing yards and 2 more rushing TDs.

But accuracy, QB Rating, and wins favored Burrow.

I think Burrow would have surpassed Herbert in both yards and TDs though if they had anywhere close to the same number of attempts though.

Quality over quantity.

Herbert had 152 more attempts...which is a LOT.

But looking at efficiency within those attempts?

Passer rating
Burrow - 2nd
Herbert - 12th

Comp %
Burrow - 1st
Herbert - 18th

Yards per attempt
Burrow - 1st
Herbert - 11th

Heck, Burrow averaged the same yards and TDs on 7 fewer attempts per game. 7 is a huge difference, yet Burrow produced the same? And we're wondering who the better guy is?

I really don't get why some are so hesitant about this. Our guy definitely had a more impressive season, and saying so shouldn't be perceived as homerism. Burrow would have the same bulk stats as Herbert if he hasn't missed the last week because he clinched his division. On way fewer attempts.

(01-13-2022, 05:07 PM)JaggedJimmyJay Wrote: I'm not sure this is true. He couldn't have done much more to beat the Raiders than he did. Are you referring to a different game?

Burrow is my guy, but sometimes I think we get carried away with this comparison.

With the playoffs on the line, our guy threw for 446 and 4 TDs with a 148.0 rating vs the best in the AFC. Outdueled Pat Mahomes.

Herbert posted an 80.4 passer rating vs the Raiders.

Not seeing where I'm getting "carried away" by suggesting the guy with the objectively FAR more impressive game was in fact more impressive?

I think people are getting hung up on me saying Herbert "shrunk", but the point is that one guy stepped up big. Herbert's game was kinda mediocre. He threw it a ton though.

[KillerGoose]

Regardless of whether you are looking at simple counting stats or advanced metrics, Burrow is better than Herbert. There is really no argument to be honest. I think Herbert was clearly better last season, but Burrow launched himself into the upper echelon of QBs very quickly this season.

[Frank Booth]

(01-13-2022, 04:43 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: - When the lights shined brightest, Burrow stepped up while Herbert shrunk.

disagree. Chargers just did charger things. Fouts and Rivers had to deal with it too

[Shake n Blake]

(01-13-2022, 06:34 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: disagree. Chargers just did charger things. Fouts and Rivers had to deal with it too

Only Herbert is to blame for Herbert completing 53% of his passes with an 80.4 rating.

Burrow objectively had a better day vs the Chiefs than Herbert had vs Oak...and I can't believe I'm having to argue that on a Bengals message board. If Herbert's numbers were similar or even remotely close to Burrow vs KC, I'd say people were just being objective.

But here we have a case where our guy had an objectively better day, and Bengals fans are denying it?