Burrow vs Herbert - Who do NFL sources, PFF analysts prefer long-term?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Burrow was better vs. the Chiefs than Herbert was against the Raiders.

Herbert didn’t shrink though. He wasn’t perfect, but he also had a bunch of receiver drops. I mean that final drive of regulation from him was as “rise to the occasion” as it gets, similar to Burrow against the 49ers.

[Shake n Blake]

(01-13-2022, 06:45 PM)JaggedJimmyJay Wrote: Burrow was better vs. the Chiefs than Herbert was against the Raiders.

Herbert didn’t shrink though. He wasn’t perfect, but he also had a bunch of receiver drops. I mean that final drive of regulation from him was as “rise to the occasion” as it gets, similar to Burrow against the 49ers.

He threw 30 incomplete passes and averaged 5.98 per attempt. Despite the late game heroics, it was one of his most statistically mediocre games of the year.

Either way, the point is our guy was (much) better in his biggest game of the year than Herbert was.

[Frank Booth]

looks like we have a Justin Herbert hater on the board

[*ochocincos*]

(01-13-2022, 06:13 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Quality over quantity.

Herbert had 152 more attempts...which is a LOT.

But looking at efficiency within those attempts?

Passer rating
Burrow - 2nd
Herbert - 12th

Comp %
Burrow - 1st
Herbert - 18th

Yards per attempt
Burrow - 1st
Herbert - 11th

Heck, Burrow averaged the same yards and TDs on 7 fewer attempts per game. 7 is a huge difference, yet Burrow produced the same? And we're wondering who the better guy is?

I really don't get why some are so hesitant about this. Our guy definitely had a more impressive season, and saying so shouldn't be perceived as homerism. Burrow would have the same bulk stats as Herbert if he hasn't missed the last week because he clinched his division. On way fewer attempts.


With the playoffs on the line, our guy threw for 446 and 4 TDs with a 148.0 rating vs the best in the AFC. Outdueled Pat Mahomes.

Herbert posted an 80.4 passer rating vs the Raiders.

Not seeing where I'm getting "carried away" by suggesting the guy with the objectively FAR more impressive game was in fact more impressive?

I think people are getting hung up on me saying Herbert "shrunk", but the point is that one guy stepped up big. Herbert's game was kinda mediocre. He threw it a ton though.

I'm not hesitant on it. I fully agree that Burrow was more efficient and would have surpassed Herbert if given close to the same opportunities.
I was just pointing out that Herbert does lead Burrow in some statistics.
Not only do I really like Burrow, but I think he was the far safer choice.
Herbert has the measurables but definitely had some things that needed to be worked on to play like he is.
I was worried he was gonna be another Mariota.

[MickMack]

(01-13-2022, 04:48 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Statistically in some categories, but not all.

This season, Herbert had 403 more passing yards and 4 more passing TDs than Burrow.
Herbert also had 184 more rushing yards and 2 more rushing TDs.

But accuracy, QB Rating, and wins favored Burrow.

I think Burrow would have surpassed Herbert in both yards and TDs though if they had anywhere close to the same number of attempts though.

By a ton.  Herbert had over 150 more passing attempts than Burrow.  Do you know what Joe's numbers would have been if he had those extra 152 passing attempts based on his Y/A and TD%? 5,980 yards (the record is 5,477) and 44 TD.  Do you know what Herbert's numbers would be if he had Joe's 520 attempts based on his Y/A and TD%?  3,900 and 29TD.  Respectable numbers but not Joe Burrow numbers.  He is one of the most efficient and dangerous quarterbacks in football.  The balance in this offense and Taylor's sometimes conservative play calling disguises how good he is.  Herbert is a phenomenal quarterback but Burrow was light years better this season.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-13-2022, 06:54 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: He threw 30 incomplete passes and averaged 5.98 per attempt. Despite the late game heroics, it was one of his most statistically mediocre games of the year.

Either way, the point is our guy was (much) better in his biggest game of the year than Herbert was.

You do have to give some credit to Herbert and the rest of that offense for coming back from 14-29 midway through the 3rd quarter.


Had I stuck with Herbert at QB over Murray and swapped Kyle Pitts for Jared Cook last weekend in fantasy, I would have won my other fantasy football championship. Instead, I only won one out of two leagues. Bah!

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I’m just glad nobody here is referencing that god-awful QBR stat that ESPN has been peddling for years. It’s starting to become more popular, and it drives me nuts. It’s worthless.

[reuben.ahmed]

After the playoffs the answer will be clear

[*pally*]

(01-13-2022, 06:43 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Only Herbert is to blame for Herbert completing 53% of his passes with an 80.4 rating.

Burrow objectively had a better day vs the Chiefs than Herbert had vs Oak...and I can't believe I'm having to argue that on a Bengals message board. If Herbert's numbers were similar or even remotely close to Burrow vs KC, I'd say people were just being objective.

But here we have a case where our guy had an objectively better day, and Bengals fans are denying it?

I just can't get over Herbert missing 30 passes against the Raiders.  He had to make so many 4th downs because he couldn't connect on 1st-3rd downs.  Those passes were way overthrown, were behind the receivers, short of the receivers.  The accuracy just wasn't there.

[MickMack]

(01-13-2022, 07:06 PM)JaggedJimmyJay Wrote: I’m just glad nobody here is referencing that god-awful QBR stat that ESPN has been peddling for years. It’s starting to become more popular, and it drives me nuts. It’s worthless.

I always ask people to explain how QBR is calculated if they're going to use it in an argument.  Trust me - it ends the discussion pretty quickly.

[Johnny Cupcakes]

(01-13-2022, 07:06 PM)JaggedJimmyJay Wrote: I’m just glad nobody here is referencing that god-awful QBR stat that ESPN has been peddling for years. It’s starting to become more popular, and it drives me nuts. It’s worthless.

Burrow finished the year tied for 10th in the league (with Carson Wentz) in QBR. Rodgers was first. The difference between Rodgers and Burrow was roughly the same as the difference between Burrow and Daniel Jones or Jared Goff…lol.

Trash stat.

[Shake n Blake]

(01-13-2022, 06:55 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: looks like we have a Justin Herbert hater on the board

Not a hater. Just not homering it up for some dude who plays in Los Angeles.

(01-13-2022, 06:55 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I'm not hesitant on it. I fully agree that Burrow was more efficient and would have surpassed Herbert if given close to the same opportunities.
I was just pointing out that Herbert does lead Burrow in some statistics.
Not only do I really like Burrow, but I think he was the far safer choice.
Herbert has the measurables but definitely had some things that needed to be worked on to play like he is.
I was worried he was gonna be another Mariota.

Apologies if my post came across a bit terse. I'm just frustrated that we seem to have a segment of people on here (not you) that is infatuated with a guy on a different team putting up worse stats than our guy.

As I've already explained, the efficiency stats all favor Joey B.
The bulk stats *barely* favor Herbert, and that wouldn't be the case had Joe not skipped the last game.

[MickMack]

(01-13-2022, 07:12 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Not a hater. Just not homering it up for some dude who plays in Los Angeles.


Apologies is my post came across a bit terse. I'm just frustrated that we seem to have a segment of people on here (not you) that is infatuated with a guy on a different team putting up worse stats than our guy.

As I've already explained, the efficiency stats all favor Joey B.
The bulk stats *barely* favor Herbert, and that wouldn't be the case had Joe not skipped the last game.

66 yards and 1 TD was Herbert's advantage going into the last game with an equal number of games played.  And that was with 100 more attempts.  Herbert is very, very good.  Burrow is elite.  

[ezekiel23]

Just simply watch that final scoring drive in regulation,against the Raiders,that Herbert put together in the
final seconds.It was probably one of the most amazing drives I’ve ever witnessed.And I’ve been a fan of NFL football for a long time.(It was their final game of the season).

But,with that said,I’ll take Burrow over Herbert.Although I’ll admit,it’s very close.

[TheFan]

(01-13-2022, 07:20 PM)ezekiel23 Wrote: Just simply watch that final scoring  drive in regulation,against the Raiders,that Herbert put together in the
final seconds.It was probably one of the most amazing drives I’ve ever witnessed.And I’ve been a fan of NFL football for a long time.(It was their final game of the season).

But,with that said,I’ll take Burrow over Herbert.Although I’ll admit,it’s very close.

I really hope you're being hyperbolic. It was a crazy drive given how many times they had to convert 4th down. When it comes to good offense/QB play though it was a pretty terrible drive. 

[MTBengalsFan]

(01-13-2022, 01:03 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I thought he was totally a bust after his rookie year. I know he had some big wow plays and whatnot, but you have to be able to complete passes to be a QB in the NFL. He's still not good yet, but he's certainly improved enough from Year 1 to Year 2 that it's intriguing to see if he'll do that again.

Completing passes makes a QB good? He led the league in completion percentage. Are there no good QBs? 

[Johnny Cupcakes]

Do we have people that would take Herbert over Burrow here?

Nerds.

[Shake n Blake]

(01-13-2022, 07:18 PM)MickMack Wrote: 66 yards and 1 TD was Herbert's advantage going into the last game with an equal number of games played.  And that was with 100 more attempts.  Herbert is very, very good.  Burrow is elite.  

Agree 100%. If I were a Chargers fan, I'd be thrilled with Herbert, especially where they got him.

I'm a Bengals fan though, and from that perspective I think there's no question we took the better player by a decent (not huge, but not insignificant) margin.

I just don't get the need to constantly compare/2nd guess when we're doing great with the guy we got. It's kinda like a 49ers fan in the mid 90s gazing longingly at Drew Bledsoe when they had Steve Young.

Bledsoe was putting up big bulky numbers on a ton of attempts and he did revive the Patriots, but obviously Steve Young was more efficient and doing bigger things.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I can't imagine any significant portion of Bengals fans would actually rather have Herbert. That would be difficult to understand.

I have been developing a [maybe?] radical take on Joe Burrow since he was drafted but especially as this season has reached the playoffs. Let's consider some details within the narrative:

- Ohio kid
- Drafted #1 overall by an Ohio professional team
- Is the most important player on the team by a mile the moment he arrives
- Flashes some serious potential on a bad team as a rookie
- Takes a long-struggling franchise to the playoffs very early in his career
- MVP-caliber statistical production in only his second season

Does all of this sound familiar?

Joe Burrow can be to Cincinnati what LeBron James was to Cleveland. If the Bengals win Saturday, he is already the face of the entire city.

[TecmoBengals]

(01-13-2022, 07:46 PM)Chip Smallwood Wrote: Do we have people that would take Herbert over Burrow here?

Nerds.

Traitors.