Threads from the Enemy, divisional playoffs: Titans

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(01-21-2022, 10:05 AM)Daddy-O Wrote: The Titans had a completely different defense last year.  They upgraded significantly.

So did we....and we played with a patchwork oline that game. Personnel has changed, but schematically, they're both pretty much the same teams. We attacked their secondary without Uno, and I'd think that would be the same ish plan tomorrow.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

(01-21-2022, 12:14 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: Not true at all.

It has less of a bearing on things than people think, but 75% of each team's personnel (at least) is identical, so there is *some* precedent to go on.

Connections can be drawn, sure. I don’t believe though that any form of the following argument is a good argument:

The Bengals beat them last year so they’ll do it again.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(01-21-2022, 12:14 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: Not true at all.

It has less of a bearing on things than people think, but 75% of each team's personnel (at least) is identical, so there is *some* precedent to go on.

Correct. I didn't mean we're automatically going to handle them as easily as we did last season, or even win the game....but it looked like they couldn't cover our guys, and that was without CJ or Chase....or Mixon for that matter. The oline that day was Adeniji, Spain, Price, Redmond, and Big Fred. Jenkins is a big question for tomorrow, but I realize Joseph isn't there to be abused as well. Point being, we're a different team too, and I don't think they've completely changed their defensive scheme. 

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

Also, we bottled up the run game with a healthy Henry back there, and no Reader, Hendrickson, Hilton, Awuzie, Hill, or Tupou. I saw WJIII miss two easy tackles with his two hand touch impersonation.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(01-21-2022, 12:30 PM)WychesWarrior Wrote: Also, we bottled up the run game with a healthy Henry back there, and no Reader, Hendrickson, Hilton, Awuzie, Hill, or Tupou. I saw WJIII miss two easy tackles with his two hand touch impersonation.

Correct.

Henry had great numbers, but I (and many of us) never got the impression that he was, "dominant," and that the game was dictated/revolved around his running.

If he has those same numbers tomorrow and we can't score points, THEN it will ring true that he had an impact, but never in my life have I seen someone run for 5+ YPC, over 100 yards and barely was a factor in a game.

[*Go Cards*]

Last season Bengals were 1-5-1 coming into game against 5-1 Titans team at PBS.

It was a classic trap game for the Titans playing a road game against a team whose only win in 7 games had come against the Jaguars who were horrible.

Titans will not take the Bengals as lightly this time and will be fired up especially since its at their house this time instead of PBS.

The Bengals have changed many of their starters from that game which is a very good thing though it makes comparison tougher.

Have never wavered about thinking Bengals will win this game. Yet think it will be a completely different game than last year, albeit the same winner.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(01-21-2022, 12:53 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: Correct.

Henry had great numbers, but I (and many of us) never got the impression that he was, "dominant," and that the game was dictated/revolved around his running.

If he has those same numbers tomorrow and we can't score points, THEN it will ring true that he had an impact, but never in my life have I seen someone run for 5+ YPC, over 100 yards and barely was a factor in a game.

Yes. The offense was just starting to show glimpses at that point in the season last year, and they put up a lot of points against TN and pretty much took the big man out of the equation. You're VERY seldom going to completely stop Henry, but scoring points and preventing him from having one of his huge games definitely makes it easier to compete with them.

[*Go Cards*]

(01-21-2022, 01:38 PM)Wyche Wrote: Yes. The offense was just starting to show glimpses at that point in the season last year, and they put up a lot of points against TN and pretty much took the big man out of the equation. You're VERY seldom going to completely stop Henry, but scoring points and preventing him from having one of his huge games definitely makes it easier to compete with them.

Definitely is a prerequisite to making the Titans play our game instead of dictating their pace upon us. 

Fortunately we are built just for this as well, think if Bengals hit 30 plus points the Titans are in trouble. 

[Bengalholic]

From PFF:

The Titans:
50.8% of their defensive snaps in nickel
Coverage grade drops from 83.4 to 72.4 in nickel

Joe Burrow vs nickel:
105 passer rating
88.9 PFF passing grade

[Tony]

(01-21-2022, 02:07 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: From PFF:

The Titans:
50.8% of their defensive snaps in nickel
Coverage grade drops from 83.4 to 72.4 in nickel

Joe Burrow vs nickel:
105 passer rating
88.9 PFF passing grade

Is there any passing stat that Burrow doesn't exceed at?

[Tony]

I have a feeling this could be a Mixon , screens galore type of game.. No one is talking about Mixon...

[JaggedJimmyJay]

(01-21-2022, 02:46 PM)Tony Wrote: Is there any passing stat that Burrow doesn't exceed at?

I haven't seen the numbers, but I suspect he still has room for improvement against a four-man rush zone defense.

[Bengalpool]

(01-21-2022, 02:48 PM)Tony Wrote: I have a feeling this could be a Mixon , screens galore type of game.. No one is talking about Mixon...

Unfortunately people are probably ruling him out as a big factor due to TN #2 rush defense. And maybe that's how it plays out. 

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(01-21-2022, 01:48 PM)Go Cards Wrote: Definitely is a prerequisite to making the Titans play our game instead of dictating their pace upon us. 

Fortunately we are built just for this as well, think if Bengals hit 30 plus points the Titans are in trouble. 

Agree. We need to score early and often.

[Bengalholic]

(01-21-2022, 02:46 PM)Tony Wrote: Is there any passing stat that Burrow doesn't exceed at?

Another interesting passing stat for all the playoff QBs (adjusted yards per attempt) that I've talked about before in terms of how much it's factored into postseason outcomes over the past 5 years:

In the 6 games during wildcard weekend, 5 of the 6 winning QB's had a higher ay/a on the season than their opponent. Allen was the only outlier, but his opponent was a rookie and they were basically even (6.9-7.0).

This weekends matchups:

Burrow        9.0
Tannehill      6.6

Garoppolo    8.3
Rodgers       8.8

Stafford        8.3
Brady           7.8

Allen            6.9
Mahomes      7.6

Also, the QB who had the higher general yards per attempt within the actual game has won 10 straight and 28 of the last 32.

[basballguy]

(01-21-2022, 02:46 PM)Tony Wrote: Is there any passing stat that Burrow doesn't exceed at?

there's a mom joke in here somewhere.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Gonna be fun prepping another thread. We'll see which enemy we'll be snooping.

[leonardfan40]

I feel bad for some of those fans lol saying the same stuff we’ve been saying for years.

Rightfully bashing Tannehill. Bashing Vrabel (I’d bash him for the 2 pt try but he’s a good coach without a QB in a QB driven league). Miserable over their franchise that always finds new ways to lose in the playoffs lol I feel their pain. Glad it’s not us for once!

[*michaelsean*]

(01-23-2022, 12:54 AM)leonardfan40 Wrote: I feel bad for some of those fans lol saying the same stuff we’ve been saying for years.

Rightfully bashing Tannehill. Bashing Vrabel (I’d bash him for the 2 pt try but he’s a good coach without a QB in a QB driven league). Miserable over their franchise that always finds new ways to lose in the playoffs lol I feel their pain. Glad it’s not us for once!

Yeah they overcame a lot to get there. It would suck to have it end that way.

[Shake n Blake]

(01-21-2022, 11:18 AM)Aquapod770 Wrote: It's really wild to think we are one more win away from the AFC championship game.

Now we're one more win from the Super Bowl.