Super Bowl Mock

[*ochocincos*]

Some of the guys on my list making a name for themselves at their draft bowls (Senior, Shrine):
Calvin Austin III - https://chargerswire.usatoday.com/2022/02/01/senior-bowl-chargers-christian-watson-calvin-austin-akayleb-evans/
Ty Chandler - https://www.nfl.com/news/east-west-shrine-bowl-practice-standouts-north-carolina-rb-ty-chandler-puts-on-a

[Bengalfan11164]

(02-02-2022, 10:45 AM)ochocincos Wrote: It's not Geoff's propaganda.
Spotrac estimates the 31st pick alone will be $2.3 mill.
You need to add potentially all the picks making the roster, which could be $6-7 mill in total.
Then you have to have IR reserve, which most teams (Bengals especially) reserve between $2-5 mill.
Therefore, it's safe to assume that the Bengals will hold on to ~$10 mill going into the draft.

https://overthecap.com/draft/
The effective amount of cap space the Bengals need for the ENTIRETY of their 2022 picks is $2,684,645.


Look at the data.  


Each player drafted displaces an existing (often veteran) player; typically, the drafted player is cheaper than the displaced player.  


The 1st rounder and the 2nd rounder are typically more than the displaced player, but the 3rd - 7th rounders are cheaper.  


Don't believe Geoff Hobson's propaganda.  

[*ochocincos*]

(02-02-2022, 11:30 AM)Bengalfan11164 Wrote: https://overthecap.com/draft/
The effective amount of cap space the Bengals need for the ENTIRETY of their 2022 picks is $2,684,645.


Look at the data.  


Each player drafted displaces an existing (often veteran) player; typically, the drafted player is cheaper than the displaced player.  


The 1st rounder and the 2nd rounder are typically more than the displaced player, but the 3rd - 7th rounders are cheaper.  


Don't believe Geoff Hobson's propaganda.  

Displacement is true if the Bengals have enough players on the roster already, but they don't right now.

A safe bet is expecting that every veteran player will cost $1 mill or more.
Heck, even Jordan Evans costs basically $1 mill ($987k).

So you're going to need AT LEAST $17 mill just to fill every open spot with around vet minimum.

It's also a reality that there are very few quality veterans who sign for just $1 mill APY.
You're going to get players like Mike Evans or Jordan Evans at that price.
So you're going to want to spend way more than $1 mill on a player who you think is going to be a quality player.
I estimated that Uzomah will cost around $6 mill to re-sign.
I also estimated that Hill will cost around $7-8 mill to re-sign.
So you're talking $13-14 mill just in two guys.

[Bengalfan11164]

(02-02-2022, 10:45 AM)ochocincos Wrote: (I did see you mentioned Tate and Reiff getting new contracts...I don't want Tate back, and Reiff can't stay healthy. No thanks)

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/ReifRi00.htm

Odd.  Of 160 possible games over 10 seasons, Reiff has missed 14, or 8.75%.  5 of those 14 happened this year in 2021.  

In 2020, Tate had 14 receptions.  He had 3 prior to injury this year. 
In 2021, there were 11 receptions for the non-top-3 receivers -  Thomas (5), Taylor (2), Irwin (2), Morgan (2).  

https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/stats/_/name/cin/season/2021/seasontype/2

Tate isn't a world-beater, but is a solid (inexpensive) 4th WR especially with the Bengals drafting later round WR competition to compete for the off-the-bench snaps (a la Sanu in 3rd & Marvin Jones in 5th).

[*ochocincos*]

(02-02-2022, 11:47 AM)Bengalfan11164 Wrote: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/ReifRi00.htm

Odd.  Of 160 possible games over 10 seasons, Reiff has missed 14, or 8.75%.  5 of those 14 happened this year in 2021.  

In 2020, Tate had 14 receptions.  He had 3 prior to injury this year. 
In 2021, there were 11 receptions for the non-top-3 receivers -  Thomas (5), Taylor (2), Irwin (2), Morgan (2).  

https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/stats/_/name/cin/season/2021/seasontype/2

Tate isn't a world-beater, but is a solid (inexpensive) 4th WR especially with the Bengals drafting later round WR competition to compete for the off-the-bench snaps (a la Sanu in 3rd & Marvin Jones in 5th).

Reiff has only played all games in a season twice in his career. That's what I mean by not being able to stay healthy.

I think the Bengals can find an upgrade over Tate in the draft or cheap in FA. He's done very little aside from 2019 when he filled in as WR1/2. I'd like a WR with a little more speed and proven production.

[Bengalfan11164]

(02-02-2022, 11:44 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Displacement is true if the Bengals have enough players on the roster already, but they don't right now.

A safe bet is expecting that every veteran player will cost $1 mill or more.
Heck, even Jordan Evans costs basically $1 mill ($987k).

So you're going to need AT LEAST $17 mill just to fill every open spot with a vet.

It's also a reality that there are very few quality veterans who sign for just $1 mill APY.
You're going to get players like Mike Evans or Jordan Evans at that price.
So you're going to want to spend way more than $1 mill on a player who you think is going to be a quality player.

I don't feel that the Bengals have a significant fewer amount of contracts in 2022 than they did in 2021.  

16 practice squad players.  
Plus UDFAs.
Plus retained Bengal UFA.
Plus acquired UFA.  

If Bates signs long term contract, then the Bengals prorated signing bonus will free up even more cap space.  As is the case when any of the signed UFAs. 

Hendrickson signed 4 yr/$60mm contract.  2021 salary cap hit was $2.5mm under average.  
Awuzie - 3 yr/$21.7 - 2021 was $1 million under average

Again, don't let Hobson's propaganda confuse you.  There is plenty of cash.  

[schroomytunes]

We are in a great position to open up the draft again to BPA if we shore up our own FA's and get @ 2 outside guys in FA.

My Strategy:

1) Cut Tre Waynes- frees up another 11 million towards the cap, which gives us @ 70 million to spend.

2) Re-sign our own: (Millions per)

- BJ Hill- DT- (7)- it's either him or Ogunjobi.
- CJ Uzomeh-TE- (6)
- Kevin Huber-P (1.7)
- Clark Harris- LS (1)
- Brandon Allen-QB (1)
- Eli Apple-CB (4)
- Tre Flowers-CB (1.5)
- Jesse Bates-FS (10) we sign to a long term deal something like 4/40
- Quentin Spain-G (7)
- Mike Thomas-WR/ST (1)

total internal FA's = @ 42 million

3) Outside FA's

- Morgan Moses-RT (Washington) (7)- shores up the RT position, 3/21
- Mason Cole-C (Vikings) (2)- I like him as a solid experienced IOL backup over Hill.
- Malcolm Smith- OLB (Browns) (3)- I like him as an added insurance and improves the overall LB core depth.

-- total outside FA's = @ 12 million.

- I feel our core is solid already, Moses/Cole upgrade the O-line now and it allows us to draft an O-lineman in 1-3 to eventually start, and we can continue to build through the draft. The FA savings will allow us to extend some of our own.

4) Draft ( 1-4 rd)

1rd) Daxton Hill-CB/S (Michigan)- he strengthens the overall defense

2nd) Max Mitchell- OT (Louisiana)- gives us a RT of the future. 6'6 305

3rd) John Ridgeway-DT (Arkansas)- solid D-line rotational guy 6'2 320

4th) Cole Turner-TE ( Nevada) - 6'6 240, would be a nice red zone over the middle target.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-02-2022, 12:30 PM)Bengalfan11164 Wrote: I don't feel that the Bengals have a significant fewer amount of contracts in 2022 than they did in 2021.  

16 practice squad players.  
Plus UDFAs.
Plus retained Bengal UFA.
Plus acquired UFA.  

If Bates signs long term contract, then the Bengals prorated signing bonus will free up even more cap space.  As is the case when any of the signed UFAs. 

Hendrickson signed 4 yr/$60mm contract.  2021 salary cap hit was $2.5mm under average.  
Awuzie - 3 yr/$21.7 - 2021 was $1 million under average

Again, don't let Hobson's propaganda confuse you.  There is plenty of cash.  

We can't predict how the Bengals will exactly structure the cap of FAs year-to-year.
Best we can do is estimate APY.

All I know is it's likely unrealistic to think the Bengals will do all of the following:
Re-sign/tag Bates ($13+ mill)
Re-sign Uzomah (expected $6-7 mill)
Re-sign Hill OR Ogunjobi ($7+ mill)
Re-sign Eli Apple (~$5 mill?)
Bring in an upgrade at LG ($7+ mill)
Sign James Daniels ($9-11 mill)
Sign Morgan Moses ($8-10 mill)

Just those guys alone = $55+ mill
You're now at 41 guys on the roster. 10 more spots to fill

Add 1-2 depth WRs: $2+ mill depending on player(s)
Add 3 depth DBs (2 CBs and 1 safety or 3 CBs): $4+ mill depending on players
Add 1-2 backup DL that offer some pass rush: $2+ mill
Add backup QB better than Brandon Allen: $2+ mill
That takes you to about $67 mill and 47-49 spots on the roster.

You then can expect to fill 2-4 vacant roster spots with draft picks, but that's going to be another at least $4 mill (displacement doesn't count much in this case because there's no one to displace)
You're now pushing $72 mill.

If you wanna keep Bates at the cost of some other vet who will cost $7+ mill, who you not signing from the above?

[*ochocincos*]

(02-02-2022, 02:24 PM)schroomytunes Wrote: We are in a great position to open up the draft again to BPA if we shore up our own FA's and get @ 2 outside guys in FA.

My Strategy:

1) Cut Tre Waynes- frees up another 11 million towards the cap, which gives us @ 70 million to spend.

2) Re-sign our own: (Millions per)

- BJ Hill- DT- (7)- it's either him or Ogunjobi.
- CJ Uzomeh-TE- (6)
- Kevin Huber-P (1.7)
- Clark Harris- LS (1)
- Brandon Allen-QB (1)
- Eli Apple-CB (4)
- Tre Flowers-CB (1.5)
- Jesse Bates-FS (10) we sign to a long term deal something like 4/40
- Quentin Spain-G (7)
- Mike Thomas-WR/ST (1)

total internal FA's = @ 42 million

3) Outside FA's

- Morgan Moses-RT (Washington) (7)- shores up the RT position, 3/21
- Mason Cole-C (Vikings) (2)- I like him as a solid experienced IOL backup over Hill.
- Malcolm Smith- OLB (Browns) (3)- I like him as an added insurance and improves the overall LB core depth.

-- total outside FA's = @ 12 million.

- I feel our core is solid already, Moses/Cole upgrade the O-line now and it allows us to draft an O-lineman in 1-3 to eventually start, and we can continue to build through the draft. The FA savings will allow us to extend some of our own.

4) Draft ( 1-4 rd)

1rd) Daxton Hill-CB/S (Michigan)- he strengthens the overall defense

2nd) Max Mitchell- OT (Louisiana)- gives us a RT of the future. 6'6 305

3rd) John Ridgeway-DT (Arkansas)- solid D-line rotational guy 6'2 320

4th) Cole Turner-TE ( Nevada) - 6'6 240, would be a nice red zone over the middle target.

Bro if I'm Bates, no way am I taking only $10 mill a year. The tag is $13 mill. Simmons just signed for $15.25 mill APY.
I'm Demanding $14 mill APY minimum if I'm Bates.
Not a fan of the only real OL upgrade made is Morgan Moses.
RG you're taking a gamble that one of Carman, Adeniji, or Smith ascends this coming offseason.
I hope one does, but I'm not taking that gamble if I'm wanting to be a perennial SB contender.

[*Synric*]

I dont think Quinton Spain will cost all that much. He has been solid in pass protection not perfect and still very inconsistent as a run blocker. Add in his age I would say closer to 4.5m.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-02-2022, 03:19 PM)Synric Wrote: I dont think Quinton Spain will cost all that much. He has been solid in pass protection not perfect and still very inconsistent as a run blocker. Add in his age I would say closer to 4.5m.

Spain might be cheaper than $7 mill but I want someone who is better as a pass protector, which is why I went with Norwell.
I think Spain is ok, but as I keep saying, if the Bengals only re-sign their own and use the draft to try to improve the OL, some fans won't feel like they did enough to improve the OL.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-02-2022, 12:30 PM)Bengalfan11164 Wrote: I don't feel that the Bengals have a significant fewer amount of contracts in 2022 than they did in 2021.  

16 practice squad players.  
Plus UDFAs.
Plus retained Bengal UFA.
Plus acquired UFA.  

If Bates signs long term contract, then the Bengals prorated signing bonus will free up even more cap space.  As is the case when any of the signed UFAs. 

Hendrickson signed 4 yr/$60mm contract.  2021 salary cap hit was $2.5mm under average.  
Awuzie - 3 yr/$21.7 - 2021 was $1 million under average

Again, don't let Hobson's propaganda confuse you.  There is plenty of cash.  

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cincinnati-bengals/cap/

Only 36 players listed, including Reiff (expected to void contract) and Waynes.

Compare that to 2021, which has 61 active players - https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cincinnati-bengals/cap/2021/

[*ochocincos*]

It kind of frustrates me that people are more focused on not keeping Bates instead of talking about Daxton Hill as a viable starting FS.

If the cap can work itself out to keep Bates and still upgrade the OL enough, I'd be fine swapping out Daxton Hill for an OL or DL that I think could be a worthy starter. With that said, Hill is a prospect I think very highly of and think he can do very well right away as a starter. Probably more confident in him starting than any DL or OL starting that the Bengals would draft.

[Hammerstripes]

(02-02-2022, 04:21 PM)ochocincos Wrote: It kind of frustrates me that people are more focused on not keeping Bates instead of talking about Daxton Hill as a viable starting FS.

If the cap can work itself out to keep Bates and still upgrade the OL enough, I'd be fine swapping out Daxton Hill for an OL or DL that I think could be a worthy starter. With that said, Hill is a prospect I think very highly of and think he can do very well right away as a starter. Probably more confident in him starting than any DL or OL starting that the Bengals would draft.

Because rookies are a major crap shoot.  I don't think we let Bates walk, nor should we.  At least franchise him for $13 million and go from there.  

I'm also not a fan of replacing a bunch of guys on the o-line.  At some point, cohesion and chemistry will trump just adding players.  There's no way that I get rid of Spain, the left side isn't broken.  We obviously need a RG/RT.  I could see 1 brought in and then a competition from there.

This roster, even though it made the Super Bowl, still has holes.  

[*ochocincos*]

(02-02-2022, 05:06 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: Because rookies are a major crap shoot.  I don't think we let Bates walk, nor should we.  At least franchise him for $13 million and go from there.  

I'm also not a fan of replacing a bunch of guys on the o-line.  At some point, cohesion and chemistry will trump just adding players.  There's no way that I get rid of Spain, the left side isn't broken.  We obviously need a RG/RT.  I could see 1 brought in and then a competition from there.

This roster, even though it made the Super Bowl, still has holes.  

Would you be willing to let Uzomah, Ogunjobi, and/or Hill leave in FA in order to keep Spain and Bates and fill RG and RT in FA?
I say that because it's highly unlikely the Bengals will spend on a Daniels/Moses type of guy if they re-sign all their main guys hitting FA.

Also, I don't agree fully with the sentiment that rookies are a crap shoot.
Most are, but sufficient scouting should provide enough info to indicate if someone can start as a rookie and succeed.
I personally think Daxton Hill can start as a rookie and succeed.
Any player I'd take in Rd 1, I'd ideally look to start and succeed as a rookie.
I think the DBs are more suited for immediate contributions in late Rd 1 this draft. OL I'm really concerned about. That's why I filled all the starting OL spots with FAs.

[Hammerstripes]

(02-02-2022, 06:10 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Would you be willing to let Uzomah, Ogunjobi, and/or Hill leave in FA in order to keep Spain and Bates and fill RG and RT in FA?
I say that because it's highly unlikely the Bengals will spend on a Daniels/Moses type of guy if they re-sign all their main guys hitting FA.

Also, I don't agree fully with the sentiment that rookies are a crap shoot.
Most are, but sufficient scouting should provide enough info to indicate if someone can start as a rookie and succeed.
I personally think Daxton Hill can start as a rookie and succeed.
Any player I'd take in Rd 1, I'd ideally look to start and succeed as a rookie.
I think the DBs are more suited for immediate contributions in late Rd 1 this draft. OL I'm really concerned about. That's why I filled all the starting OL spots with FAs.

This has been proven year after year to be incorrect, hence why we there are so many guys that never really pan out.

As far as free agency goes, I don't see them adding more than 1 lineman at a higher price, so I do thing we will re-sign every one that we want back.  They can probably re-sign everyone that they want for around $45-50 million.  That leaves enough for a couple of free agents.

[*Synric*]

(02-02-2022, 04:21 PM)ochocincos Wrote: It kind of frustrates me that people are more focused on not keeping Bates instead of talking about Daxton Hill as a viable starting FS.

I said in one of your other mocked that if you're going to let Bates walk Daxton Hill is the guy to replace him with...problem is it's a lateral move at best. Jessie Bates is playing championship football in the playoffs he is a veteran that is a leader of the Defensive Backfield. He is the reason they can play a ton of single high successfully. 

[*ochocincos*]

(02-03-2022, 07:42 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: This has been proven year after year to be incorrect, hence why we there are so many guys that never really pan out.

As far as free agency goes, I don't see them adding more than 1 lineman at a higher price, so I do thing we will re-sign every one that we want back.  They can probably re-sign everyone that they want for around $45-50 million.  That leaves enough for a couple of free agents.

You might be right, we'll have to see.

In an old-Bengals style, they could go something like this...

Tag Bates
Re-sign Uzomah
Re-sign Spain
Re-sign Hill or Ogunjobi
Try to re-sign the other if they're willing to take a modest offer.

See if Reiff will either not void contract or re-sign if he does void.
If he re-signs, draft a RT to groom behind him
Potentially draft a new RG.

If Reiff doesn't re-sign, they could try to find a new vet RT, or they could pursue a vet OG and draft a new RT who they think can start immediately.

I could see them doing something like that because they could think that their current team was good enough to get to the Super Bowl, so try to keep as much of it intact as possible. Maybe make one key upgrade depending on available cap.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-03-2022, 10:42 PM)Synric Wrote: I said in one of your other mocked that if you're going to let Bates walk Daxton Hill is the guy to replace him with...problem is it's a lateral move at best. Jessie Bates is playing championship football in the playoffs he is a veteran that is a leader of the Defensive Backfield. He is the reason they can play a ton of single high successfully. 

Lateral move is fine because Hill would be way cheaper than Bates.
It should be cheaper to get an upgrade at OG or RT than it will be to keep Bates, but I understand wanting to keep him.

If Bates is kept, we might have to see some of Ogunjobi, Hill, Uzomah, Spain, Reiff, and Apple leave in FA.
(Notice I said some of, not implying they all would not get re-signed).

Perhaps I'm overvaluing what they'll get offered on the open market, but I don't feel like I am.

[*Synric*]

(02-03-2022, 10:48 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Lateral move is fine because Hill would be way cheaper than Bates.
It should be cheaper to get an upgrade at OG or RT than it will be to keep Bates, but I understand wanting to keep him.

If Bates is kept, we might have to see some of Ogunjobi, Hill, Uzomah, Spain, Reiff, and Apple leave in FA.
(Notice I said some of, not implying they all would not get re-signed).

Perhaps I'm overvaluing what they'll get offered on the open market, but I don't feel like I am.

As Daniel Jeremiah said this is a trenches draft on both sides. Resign Bates draft trenches.