Why the Rams win

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(02-09-2022, 03:47 PM)CoachGeorge Wrote: This thread got sidetracked in a hurry!

Football Outsiders have the Rams defense top 5 across the board.  Run, pass and overall.  Were they excel is in the red zone. That’s a great measure of a defense (and offense too).  Donte Deayon is probably a top 3 to 5 CB2.  Even Long is decent for a CB3.  Unlike zone heavy pass defense, Fangio based defensives, safeties aren’t asked to do too much.

It definitely should be a concern.

More so than the Titans with Byard and company? I don't know Coach, I have seen the Rams get torched a lot this season even
with that front. The front with AD makes that Secondary look much better than it is. If Burrow gets the ball out quickly he can carve
these guys up, there are many ways to attack that Defense. There is a reason they were 22nd against the pass in the regular season.

We will see how our OL holds up and how Burrow fairs under pressure. The latter I have immense confidence in.

On the other side of the ball we will see how the Rams OL holds up against Hendrickson, Reader, BJ Hill, Hubbard, Kareem, Sample.

Not to mention our Linebackers and Secondary that have been playing lights out. If we get pressure Stafford should struggle as he
has most of the season. Stafford better stay cool and not throw INTs or we could beat them soundly. We haven't been turning the 
ball over on Offense and we play disciplined. Our Defense is playing extremely opportunistic right now.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

(02-09-2022, 03:49 PM)Davis777 Wrote: YOU AINT BETTER THAN SF !!! PLAIN SIMPLE

SF ain't better than the Chiefs.

This is meaningless. Your argument is bad. Bye.

[*PhilHos*]

(02-09-2022, 02:49 PM)CoachGeorge Wrote: I hope I’m wrong, but I rarely mess up my predictions.

I'm calling bullshit. I tried searching for one of your patented "predictions" but couldn't find any. Please be so kind as to show us some of them.

Thanks.

[fredtoast]

(02-09-2022, 03:16 PM)ochocincos Wrote: It still kind of a weakness.

I don't think so.

(02-09-2022, 03:09 PM)fredtoast Wrote: The Rams have a very good pass defense.  #2 in pass TDs allowed (17), #3 in interceptions (19), and #5 in opponents passer rating (83.8).

[grampahol]

(02-09-2022, 03:19 PM)Davis777 Wrote: GO AHEAD CIN!!! THE MEDIA LOOOOVES YOU GUY !! JOE BURROW THIS JOE BURROW THAT … IT IS TOTALLY BEING IGNORED THE FACT THAT MATHEW STAFFORD LED AND HE RAMS TO A HUGE WIN VS SF!! ITS ALL JOE JOE JOE !!!

BRING IT ON PRETTY BOY !!

We get it.. The Rams mortgaged their future for one game so if you lose to the up and comer Joe Burrow your team is up shits creek and beavers have taken over..  It'll be another decade at least before the Rams will ever be relevant again. And besides...everyone except some idiots in LA know that LA is a garbage dump for Arizona, Nevada, Mexico, Oregon and for that matter, China.. You have to scrape the homeless up in the dark of night like gum on the bottom of the city's shoe.. Congratulations. 

[JaggedJimmyJay]

The mistake so many people make when analyzing Super Bowl matchups is relying on season-long body of work data and modeling. I understand the mindset -- it's a larger sample size and therefore it should be more reliable.

The problem is: models of NFL success are almost universally terrible at the level of game-to-game prediction. They're just bad. Moreover, the Super Bowl isn't won by the team that performed at the highest level throughout the season. It's won by the team that performed at the highest level in the game. Perhaps postseason stats alone provide a better gauge just for recency's sake, but even that is dubious.

Both of these teams have had to overcome very difficult opponents to get to this point. The Bengals especially have had to get through at least two that were better on paper by every meaningful metric in the book. No model on Earth said the Bengals were favored in Kansas City. We can either say "they defied probability and got lucky" or we can say "the Bengals were a better football team than the Chiefs on 30 January, 2022". To scoff at the latter is nonsense in my view.

The Super Bowl will be no different. All of the prognosticating and especially the smack talk -- it's irrelevant noise. There is no model good enough to answer the question "who will win?" with any degree of reliability, and therefore we cannot really determine what to expect until we're watching the game live.

[*PhilHos*]

(02-09-2022, 03:49 PM)Davis777 Wrote: YOU AINT BETTER THAN SF !!! PLAIN SIMPLE

Maybe, maybe not. But the Bengals defense has gotten more sacks this postseason (8) than the vaunted Rams defense has (4).

[*rfaulk34*]

(02-09-2022, 02:59 PM)Nepa Wrote: Very insightful.

I certainly did not know that "LA’s secondary is about as good as it gets," beyond Ramsey. Many posters were considering it a weakness.

ESPN has an article where each starting player and a selection of other players is evaluated in terms of their PFF grades. PFF and ESPN did this last year as well. But I don't have a subscription to either, so I don't know the ratings. It might help in evaluating the Rams secondary.

Yes, it seems this week that the Bengals are getting the rock star treatment. I think this is because they were ignored all year, not highlighted in prime time games, and so they are the new unknown. But I do expect the coverage will swing back to the Rams later in the week. Certainly, Aaron Donald is being praised all over the place already.

The formula for all these shows is to prop up the underdog in the early part of the week, then focus on the favorite up to game time. 

You will see the same here. Without the regulars and a very select few, when time time for picks come, it will be overwhelmingly Rams. 

If the coverage is anything near 50/50 on SB Sunday, i'll be surprised. 

[fredtoast]

(02-09-2022, 03:55 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: There is a reason they were 22nd against the pass in the regular season.

That is total yardage.

And they were 6th in pass attempts against them.

When you look at efficiency they are top 5.

[KillerGoose]

(02-09-2022, 03:41 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: No doubt. They are 22nd against the pass with a great pass rush up front.

You have to be careful using standard rankings. They tell you nothing. The Rams rank 22nd in pass defense because....they faced the 6th most pass attempts. However, despite facing the 6th most pass attempts, they have the 5th best rating allowed (83), favorable EPA numbers and the 2nd fewest TDs allowed. It has been tough to pass on them this season, which is in part to their ferocious pass rush. 

I have faith that Cincinnati can pass on them, this is a very good team in their own right. There is some reality when discussing stuff like this and for everyone saying that the Rams possess a middle of the pack or mediocre pass defense, it just isn't true. That's a very good defense that matches up poorly with our offense. It's not insurmountable by any means, but they will be tough. 

[JaggedJimmyJay]

(02-09-2022, 04:01 PM)Davis777 Wrote: CIN ALREADY ACTING LIKE BEATING KC WAS THEIR SB !!!LOTTA CHEST POUNDING AND GUCCI WEARING CIGAR SMOKING GOING ON

You just, in this very thread, quite literally, beyond question, visible to the naked eye, said that Rams/49ers was the Super Bowl.

lol

[fredtoast]

(02-09-2022, 04:01 PM)Davis777 Wrote: CIN ALREADY ACTING LIKE BEATING KC WAS THEIR SB !!!

You won't believe this but their is a Rams fan who has said a dozen times already that they beat the Niners in the "real" Super Bowl.

Crazy, right?

[Johnny Cupcakes]

(02-09-2022, 04:04 PM)JaggedJimmyJay Wrote: You just, in this very thread, quite literally, beyond question, visible to the naked eye, said that Rams/49ers was the Super Bowl.

lol

(02-09-2022, 04:05 PM)fredtoast Wrote: You won't believe this but their is a Rams fan who has said a dozen times already that they beat the Niners in the "real" Super Bowl.

Crazy, right?

Damn, you both beat me to it. 

[EasyPeasy]

How must it feel to be a bandwagon Rams fan in a city that doesn't give a shit about football? A bandwagon fan for a team that has mortgaged its entire future for this game where they could get embarrassed in front of the world by a team of baby-faced killers. This asshole will be following the Niners or Raiders or whoever is geographically closest and makes the playoffs in a couple years.

[fredtoast]

(02-09-2022, 04:10 PM)EasyPeasy Wrote: How must it feel to be a bandwagon Rams fan in a city that doesn't give a shit about football?

Hard to say they don't give a shit about football when they bought twice as many tickets to NFL games as Cincinnati.

Plus you have no idea if thhis guy is a bandwagon fan.

[GodFather]

(02-09-2022, 02:49 PM)CoachGeorge Wrote: We all know about the struggles of the OL and with the Rams excellent DL that’s likely to continue.  But not many people realize that LA’s secondary is about as good as it gets.  We haven’t played (much less defeated) a secondary so good.

Further, we are averaging a low 19 points per game against Vic Fangio-style defenses.  Raheem Morris runs the former Rams DC Brandon Staley’s (a Vic Fangio disciple) defense which he adopted in this, his first year as Rams DC). Morris’ preferred defense is a zone heavy, cover 2, 4-3 Under look (Pete Carrol, Dan Quinn).

I also don’t like all the energy the Bengals have used up as we prepare for Sunday’s game.  The Bengals are getting the rock star treatment while the Rams have quietly have been low-key.

I hope I’m wrong, but I rarely mess up my predictions.

Rarely mess up on your predictions huh? So you predicted them to go to the Super Bowl this year? 

[*PhilHos*]

(02-09-2022, 04:21 PM)GodFather Wrote: Rarely mess up on your predictions huh? So you predicted them to go to the Super Bowl this year? 

I bet he predicted them to lose every game, too.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-09-2022, 04:00 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I don't think so.

I've outlined why I still feel it kind of is in the post I made.
I realize teams ended up throwing a lot when facing them, but they still allowed a lot of yards.
Also, as I indicated, their only real good CB is Ramsey.
Am I missing a good CB other than Ramsey?
Maybe I'm discounting Darious Williams.

Also, what other team have the Rams faced that has the receiving threats that the Bengals have?
About the only one I see is the first Cardinals game and regular season Bucs game.
In that Cardinals game, Green put up 102 yards, Kirk 86, Hopkins 54, and Ertz 42.
In the first Bucs game, Evans had 106, Godwin 74, Johnson 63, Gronk 51, Bernard 51.

If the Bengals receivers put up stats like that, you could argue the Bengals game was rather productive.

[Whacked]

(02-09-2022, 03:09 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I don't care if you give the credit to the pass rush or the coverage, the fact is that the Rams have a very good pass defense.  #2 in pass TDs allowed (17), #3 in interceptions (19), and #5 in opponents passer rating (83.8).

Ouch. That IS dang good.

[CoachGeorge]

(02-09-2022, 04:00 PM)PhilHos Wrote: I'm calling bullshit. I tried searching for one of your patented "predictions" but couldn't find any. Please be so kind as to show us some of them.

Thanks.

I couldn’t care less what you think.

I think I have made one prediction since I rejoined this board in 12/20. And that was that ZT would be back for year 4. It’s obvious now, but back then many(most?) on this board were upset that ZT even got a year 3.

No, I speak from experience from nearly 10 years as a professional handicapper in Vegas. Admittedly, the NFL wasn’t my meal ticket (MLB was) but both were suited to me from a coaching-matchup perspective.