Why the Rams win

[Tomkat]

(02-09-2022, 04:10 PM)EasyPeasy Wrote: How must it feel to be a bandwagon Rams fan in a city that doesn't give a shit about football? 

I was wanting to touch on this, as well...
A Rams win would be a big "meh" for LA.
Whereas a Bengals win would be LIFE-CHANGING for Bengals fans.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

Man, what'd I miss? I had an alert for a quote from the Rams dude, and it's already been deleted. Musta been a real zinger.....

[grampahol]

What could be more fitting if we all put our fingers in our ears and repeat after me, "*Lalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalala...we can't hear you.." 
*In honor of LA..

[CoachGeorge]

(02-09-2022, 04:21 PM)GodFather Wrote: Rarely mess up on your predictions huh? So you predicted them to go to the Super Bowl this year? 

Absolutely not. I thought their rough schedule plus a lot of players coming off serious injuries would limit their win total.

[MileHighGrowler]

(02-09-2022, 04:34 PM)Wyche Wrote: Man, what'd I miss? I had an alert for a quote from the Rams dude, and it's already been deleted. Musta been a real zinger.....

You didn't miss much.  Someone just got around the age verification signing up here that said you have to be at least 12 years old to post 

[MileHighGrowler]

(02-09-2022, 04:36 PM)CoachGeorge Wrote: Absolutely not.  I thought their rough schedule plus a lot of players coming off serious injuries would limit their win total.

I'm curious though if you were making it off Vegas betting where you'd determine picking the Rams was the safe bet if the stats are true about the odds of teams being unfavored to win by 4+ winning the SB?   No one know who's going to win this, I just think would think there are some odds and info that would support putting money on the dogs in this one. 

[Tomkat]

(02-09-2022, 04:19 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Hard to say they don't give a shit about football when they bought twice as many tickets to NFL games as Cincinnati.

Is that Rams alone, or does that include Chargers, as well?

[Tiger Teeth]

DAMNIT, I ALWAYS MISS OUT ON THE FUN! OH WELL, I WAS GOING TO ASK THE NICE GENTLMEN REPRESENTING THE RAMS FANBASE TO JOIN ME ON A NICE PEACEFUL TRIP TO THE GARAGE. WHERE'D HE GO?

[*Awful Llama*]

(02-09-2022, 04:34 PM)Wyche Wrote: Man, what'd I miss? I had an alert for a quote from the Rams dude, and it's already been deleted. Musta been a real zinger.....

I go to run one errand, come back, and all hell had broken loose.  The guy that makes up the lionshare of posts is already banned and I can only read his "work" as quotations in other posts.  When you miss an hour, you miss a lot.  

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(02-09-2022, 04:42 PM)MileHighGrowler Wrote: You didn't miss much.  Someone just got around the age verification signing up here that said you have to be at least 12 years old to post 

Damn....I was hoping I at least triggered a slight meltdown....lol.

[Nepa]

(02-09-2022, 04:42 PM)MileHighGrowler Wrote: You didn't miss much.  Someone just got around the age verification signing up here that said you have to be at least 12 years old to post 

That made my day!

[Sled21]

(02-09-2022, 04:19 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Hard to say they don't give a shit about football when they bought twice as many tickets to NFL games as Cincinnati.

Plus you have no idea if thhis guy is a bandwagon fan.

[*Awful Llama*]

(02-09-2022, 04:48 PM)Tiger Teeth Wrote: DAMNIT, I ALWAYS MISS OUT ON THE FUN!  OH WELL, I WAS GOING TO ASK THE NICE GENTLMEN REPRESENTING THE RAMS FANBASE TO JOIN ME ON A NICE PEACEFUL TRIP TO THE GARAGE.  WHERE'D HE GO?

Two go out to the garage, but only one comes back.

[kronadon]

(02-09-2022, 03:33 PM)Rubekahn29 Wrote: Every time I read your post I picture a kid with a really high pitched voice screaming to his mom for not getting his way. You’re not doing your fan base any favors by these silly posts your making.

MA!!!! MEATLOAF!!!!

[Shake n Blake]

(02-09-2022, 03:09 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I don't care if you give the credit to the pass rush or the coverage, the fact is that the Rams have a very good pass defense.  #2 in pass TDs allowed (17), #3 in interceptions (19), and #5 in opponents passer rating (83.8).

They didn't really face anyone.

Brady torched them for 432 yards and 103.0 rating.
Murray was great in the 1st game (268 yards, 120.3 rating)
But meh in the 2nd game (383 yards, 72.1 rating)
Rodgers was solid (307 yards, 97.2 rating)

These 4 games, the Rams gave up 24, 37, 36 and 23 points.

Aside from that, they didn't face any great QBs on good teams.

Even in the playoffs they got an easy ride. The Cards were falling apart. Brady lost half his weapons (still scored 27). Then they got Jimmy G with a throwing hand injury.

We'll be one of the 3 most daunting offenses they've faced all year, easily. They padded much of their defensive stats against the likes Dalton (Bears were awful), Daniel Jones, Jared Goff, Trevor Lawrence and Tyler Huntley.

[*psychdoctor*]

(02-09-2022, 02:49 PM)CoachGeorge Wrote: We all know about the struggles of the OL and with the Rams excellent DL that’s likely to continue.  But not many people realize that LA’s secondary is about as good as it gets.  We haven’t played (much less defeated) a secondary so good.

Further, we are averaging a low 19 points per game against Vic Fangio-style defenses.  Raheem Morris runs the former Rams DC Brandon Staley’s (a Vic Fangio disciple) defense which he adopted in this, his first year as Rams DC). Morris’ preferred defense is a zone heavy, cover 2, 4-3 Under look (Pete Carrol, Dan Quinn).

I also don’t like all the energy the Bengals have used up as we prepare for Sunday’s game.  The Bengals are getting the rock star treatment while the Rams have quietly have been low-key.

I hope I’m wrong, but I rarely mess up my predictions.

Rams should have lost to 49ers, if their player did not have hands of stone.  I think the 49ers are the better team from the NFC. 

A couple things.  The great equalizer against good defenses are turnovers.  The Bengals are creating turnovers.  
Stafford will throw INT's against the Bengals.  

I think that Titan team the Bengals beat is every bit as stout on defense Line as the Rams.  That front seven was 2nd in NFL against rush.  Titans were 6th in points allowed.  

I don't know what the Rams Defense final rankings are but I remember them in the lower quadrant 23rd or lower on total yards allowed.  They were good in not allowing teams to score.  I think they were not better compared to Titans but close, maybe 6th in points allowed.  The problem the Rams are going to have with the Bengals is LB and short dink passes that will negate Rams pass rush.  Screens, draws, quick slants.  Rams were playing single high safety sometimes two high.  If they do not bracket Chase, and Burrow goes outside the pocket, Burrow-Chase connection will happen.  

The Rams being "low-key" is because they are underestimating the Bengals, like most in NFL have the since they won the division.  The "energy" you speak of is the media, fans, not the team.  Players are enjoying themselves, sure, but Burrow and others are steady.  Rock solid.  The media loves underdogs.  Bengals certainly are the underdogs.  

Burrow is not your normal QB.  Hitting him does not affect his play. The Rams are only 4 point favorites for a reason.    

[CoachGeorge]

(02-09-2022, 04:44 PM)MileHighGrowler Wrote: I'm curious though if you were making it off Vegas betting where you'd determine picking the Rams was the safe bet if the stats are true about the odds of teams being unfavored to win by 4+ winning the SB?   No one know who's going to win this, I just think would think there are some odds and info that would support putting money on the dogs in this one. 

I think there is plenty to support taking the Bengals and the points. No argument there.

I just think the matchup of Rams defense vs. Bengals offense fairly strongly is in the Rams camp.

[yang]

(02-09-2022, 04:27 PM)CoachGeorge Wrote: I couldn’t care less what you think.

I think I have made one prediction since I rejoined this board in 12/20. And that was that ZT would be back for year 4.  It’s obvious now, but back then many(most?) on this board were upset that ZT even got a year 3.

No, I speak from experience from nearly 10 years as a professional handicapper in Vegas.  Admittedly, the NFL wasn’t my meal ticket (MLB was) but both were suited to me from a coaching-matchup perspective.

Sorry, but I had to laugh your "patented" predictons,  errrr... I mean "prediction", and it wasn't really patented, and yeah, I cherry picked some stats and used them out of context, but please you should respect my authoritie, as Cartman would say.   C'mon man. 

Rams were often leading against bad teams and teeing off on the opposition accounting for the stats.  There secondary aside from Jalen is below average and 24th in the NFL.  

I'll give one of my famous prediction TOO!

Bengals 30 Rams 20  Book it. 

[CoachGeorge]

(02-09-2022, 05:07 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: They didn't really face anyone.

Brady torched them for 432 yards and 103.0 rating.
Murray was great in the 1st game (268 yards, 120.3 rating)
But meh in the 2nd game (383 yards, 72.1 rating)
Rodgers was solid (307 yards, 97.2 rating)

These 4 games, the Rams gave up 24, 37, 36 and 23 points.

Aside from that, they didn't face any great QBs on good teams.

Even in the playoffs they got an easy ride. The Cards were falling apart. Brady lost half his weapons (still scored 27). Then they got Jimmy G with a throwing hand injury.

We'll be one of the 3 most daunting offenses they've faced all year, easily. They padded much of their defensive stats against the likes Dalton, Daniel Jones, Jared Goff, Trevor Lawrence and Tyler Huntley.

Not so fast. (Football Outsider DVOA) they faced #1, #2, #3, #5, #5, #7 & #7 offensives in FB. That’s a pretty steep schedule.

Conversely the Bengals faced the #32, #31, #29, #28, #28, #24, #22 & #20 defensives.

For good measure, the Rams defense finished #5 overall. The Bengals offense finished #19. I doubt we “carve them up” as somebody predicted.

[fredtoast]

(02-09-2022, 04:44 PM)Tomkat Wrote: Is that Rams alone, or does that include Chargers, as well?

Both.  Chargers were #8 in attendance per game this year (71,598).  Rams were #10 (70,240).

Bengals were 29th (60,325)

2021 NFL Football Attendance - National Football League - ESPN