Time to talk tie-breakers

[EatonFan]

OK. I think most have wondered about the playoff puzzle and the absolutely mind-blowing idea that the Bengals, Broncos, Patriots could be 16-0 at the end of the season and what tie-breakers are involved.

First, all 3 teams can not go 16-0. We play the Broncos and New England plays the Broncos. So, those games (it goes without saying) are HUGE. Not only because of the "blemish" on our record, but also because of the first tie-breaker: Head-to-Head. This basically means a 2 games lead over that team if you win those matchups.

Given the above the NE/Broncos Bengals/Broncos games are paramount to getting that coveted #1 seed. If we beat Denver and Denver beats NE then we'd have the inside track. If NE beats Denver and we lose to Denver, NE has the inside track and Denver has the inside track on #2. We would thus fall to #3 even at 15-1 as we lose head to head and strength of schedule. If Denver wins against both NE and Bengals, they pretty much can lock the #1 seed up. Additionally, we lose to NE currently on strength of schedule.

Current strength of schedule for each team currently (as of the records today of opponents):

Broncos 47.2% Winning % of opponents
New England 44.8%
Bengals 42.9%

Strength of schedule is a huge tie-breaker here for the #2 seed.

[tigershrimp]

We would thus fall to #3 even at 15-1 as we lose head to head and strength of schedule.

[Thefinalcut813]

Just win baby!

[EatonFan]

The good thing here is that NE strength of schedule isn't all that different than ours. So, go Raiders, Chargers, Seahawks, etc. (all those teams that we've played and beaten and who are not common foes to NE).

[Joelist]

So it boils down to we want to beat Denver.

[West Union KennyG]

I know nobody wants to talk about just winning the division anymore -
But in the excitement of 8-0, that was the 3rd division win last night.
The Bengals have beaten every team in the division now once - we can do no worse that a split with any of them. That's still significant to me, even though nobody's really talking about it.

[Sovereign Nation]

To me the ideal scenario is the Patriots lose to the Giants and the Broncos.

The Broncos lose to us. Don't sleep on them dropping another game or 2 along the way. The defense is great, but I have a feeling that the defense will slip up and have a down game.

Of course this is with us winning every other game on the schedule as well.

If we can get through AZ and ST, then we really do have a shot at perfection.

If we drop one of those 2 then we would have to hope that I am right in my feeling of the Denver D and hope that Eli can still call up his magic against Brady.

[McC]

(11-06-2015, 11:22 PM)EatonFan Wrote: OK.  I think most have wondered about the playoff puzzle and the absolutely mind-blowing idea that the Bengals, Broncos, Patriots could be 16-0 at the end of the season and what tie-breakers are involved.

First, all 3 teams can not go 16-0.  We play the Broncos and New England plays the Broncos.  So, those games (it goes without saying) are HUGE.  Not only because of the "blemish" on our record, but also because of the first tie-breaker:  Head-to-Head.  This basically means a 2 games lead over that team if you win those matchups.

Given the above the NE/Broncos  Bengals/Broncos games are paramount to getting that coveted #1 seed.  If we beat Denver and Denver beats NE then we'd have the inside track.  If NE beats Denver and we lose to Denver, NE has the inside track and Denver has the inside track on #2.  We would thus fall to #3 even at 15-1 as we lose head to head and strength of schedule.  If Denver wins against both NE and Bengals, they pretty much can lock the #1 seed up.  Additionally, we lose to NE currently on strength of schedule.

Current strength of schedule for each team currently (as of the records today of opponents):

Broncos                 47.2% Winning % of opponents
New England         44.8%
Bengals                 42.9%

Strength of schedule is a huge tie-breaker here for the #2 seed.

We took a bath on strength of schedule.  And it started out as the second toughest.  Would really suck to be penalized because so many teams on our schedule laid an egg for the season.

[OrlandoBengal]

Something tells me this is going to work itself out. I personally see Denver falling to the number three seed. Manning played well last week, but I have heard a number of analysts say it was because he had the bye week to rest his arm. That is done, now he has to go week after week. And it is going to start getting colder (we all saw how he dropped off last year, and that was after a good start). They play the Bengals, Patriots, Steelers, and Chargers twice. Not to mention the Raiders are no longer an automatic win. I can see them losing a couple games down the stretch.

The team that scares me in New England. Belichick is a genius, Brady is probably the greatest of all time, and the two of them are on a mission this year. If the Bengals have either the number one or two seed, they won't play the Patriots until the AFC Championship game. Let's hope we can somehow get that top spot and the game is at PBS.

[*pally*]

(11-07-2015, 03:24 AM)Sovereign Nation Wrote: To me the ideal scenario is the Patriots lose to the Giants and the Broncos.

The Broncos lose to us.  Don't sleep on them dropping another game or 2 along the way.  The defense is great, but I have a feeling that the defense will slip up and have a down game.  

Of course this is with us winning every other game on the schedule as well.

If we can get through AZ and ST, then we really do have a shot at perfection.

If we drop one of those 2 then we would have to hope that I am right in my feeling of the Denver D and hope that Eli can still call up his magic against Brady.

The perfect scenario would be the Patriots in addition to losing to Denver,  losing one of their 2nd match ups with the Jets, Bills or Dolphins as well as the Bronco as that will give them 2 losses within the AFC.  If they want to lose to the Giants too I'm ok with that

[Daddy-O]

We're 8 games into the season, why are we discussing this now?

We have very difficult games coming up, home Houston, Pitt, St. Louis, Baltimore and on the road at Arizona, Denver, Cleveland, Frisco. This is the NFL and any team can win on any given day, especially when they're at home.

This discussion is way premature. Talking 16-0 or 15-1 at this point is just silly. Heck, the best record the Bengals have ever had in their history is 12-4.

[EatonFan]

(11-07-2015, 11:00 AM)Daddy-O Wrote: We're 8 games into the season, why are we discussing this now?

We have very difficult games coming up, home Houston, Pitt, St. Louis, Baltimore and on the road at Arizona, Denver, Cleveland, Frisco.  This is the NFL and any team can win on any given day, especially when they're at home.

This discussion is way premature.  Talking 16-0 or 15-1 at this point is just silly.  Heck, the best record the Bengals have ever had in their history is 12-4.

It's fun.

I'm with you that these scenarios are improbable, but hey we're 8-0.  The great thing is we can actually throw it out there because you know... it IS possible!

I think 13-3 will be their final record myself.

[Daddy-O]

(11-07-2015, 11:03 AM)EatonFan Wrote: It's fun.

I'm with you that these scenarios are improbable, but hey we're 8-0.  The great thing is we can actually throw it out there because you know... it IS possible!

I think 13-3 will be their final record myself.

I'd take 13-3 (and hope for better).  Then see where the chips fall at that point.  Hate to say it but I think the AFC Championship goes through New England.  But anything can happen so you never know.  Even if it does (go through NE) you have to get there to have a chance.  So nose down every week.

[*SHRacerX*]

(11-07-2015, 11:03 AM)EatonFan Wrote: It's fun.

I'm with you that these scenarios are improbable, but hey we're 8-0.  The great thing is we can actually throw it out there because you know... it IS possible!

I think 13-3 will be their final record myself.

It is fun.  And I am not going to let the fear of an injury, a dud performance, or a #3 seed ruin what has been the most amazing Bengals season ever (thus far).

I have said it a number of times.  I think they will beat the Texans.  And I had previously (in week 3) predicted AZ as their first loss, mainly because of the travel on a short week.  But if the team finds a way to win that game, and they are 10-0, I honestly believe they will go undefeated.  

10-0 with the remaining schedule of:

Rams
@ Browns
steelers
49ers
@ Broncos
Ravens

I understand Denver is also undefeated and their defense is for real, but I like how the Bengals match up with them.  It is a real possibility. 

[Baby Hawk]

(11-07-2015, 10:16 AM)OrlandoBengal Wrote: The team that scares me in New England.  Belichick is a genius, Brady is probably the greatest of all time, and the two of them are on a mission this year.  If the Bengals have either the number one or two seed, they won't play the Patriots until the AFC Championship game.  Let's hope we can somehow get that top spot and the game is at PBS.

The Bengals are also on a mission.  
We are prepared and focused every game.  

I think that we match up well against anybody. 
Except for the 49er's, we beat every team in our remaining schedule the last time we played them. 

That doesn't guarantee that we will sweep our way to 18-0.  But we don't have to be afraid of anybody.  The Bengals won't be. 

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(11-07-2015, 02:48 AM)West Union KennyG Wrote: I know nobody wants to talk about just winning the division anymore -
But in the excitement of 8-0, that was the 3rd division win last night.  
The Bengals have beaten every team in the division now once - we can do no worse that a split with any of them.  That's still significant to me, even though nobody's really talking about it.

And 2 of them were on the road