The Bengals Ascent to the Top- How Unlikely Was It? (Put it in Context)

[Science Friction]

How unlikely do the think it was at season's beginning that the Bengals would make it to the Superbowl? I'd like you to help me put it into context with other unlikely occurrences, particularly sporting events? How would it compare to some of these?

Buster Douglas defeating Tyson?

Appalachian State over Michigan at the Big House in Ann Arbor?

Reds' sweep of the A's in '90?

Butler making the NCAA Basketball title game two years in a row?


I know I read that , before the season began, the Bengals' had a 0.4% chance of making the Superbowl. That translates to a mathematical odds against of 249:1 .


What other unlikely results can you think of that the Bengals' making the Superbowl may be on par with ???

Thanks in advance for your input.

[phil413]

I was angry at the FO for not fixing the line, but let's take a step back and look at how many defensive players had to fall into place and had huge games through the last 5 or 6 games. Sure, we could have spent 10M to fix one OL position but think where you'd not be able to spend the money, Hilton and Apple possibly? The margin in the last few games was so small a guy like Flowers could represent the difference even.

I wouldn't compare one game/match so I'd say of the selection possibly the Butler scenario. So many things had to go right against great competition.

When you consider why "experts" would give a .4% chance, it's way more than history or being too young or unproven. The most damning reason is the lasting image of Burrow holding his knee and expecting him to get AND stay healthy. He took all 63 sacks this far and got up to throw with zero fear after each one. It's going to be a war out there but he's going to take a SB MVP even if he's not amazing statistically. That's a testament to one more game where the defense makes play after play to get him there.

[grampahol]

About the same odds as me winning the lotto and giving it all away to my ex wife who I haven't seen in over 35 years since my daughter was a year and a half old..

[Interceptor]

(02-13-2022, 02:04 AM)Science Friction Wrote: What other unlikely results can you think of that the Bengals' making the Superbowl  may be on par with ???

Coinciding with the Year of the Tiger.

[OBX Bengal]

Before the season began, I thought the Bengals had zero chance of making the playoffs and that Zac Taylor should have been fired.  And I didn't understand why Joe Burrow thought Zac was a good coach.

Turns out I was wrong.

[WiregrassBenGal]

This is a huge underdog story, which is why the hype for this Super Bowl is so huge. In the NFL, it compares with the '99 season where the Rams went from 4-12 in 1998 to the Super Bowl, which was late January 2000. The Titans also went through a lot, including the Music City Miracle to get through the Super Bowl. Less-obvious similarities include how we all "survived" Y2K to realize January 1, 2000 was just gonna be another day. I was working at a medical-oriented answering service back then, and Friday, December 31, 1999 was one of the most harrowing workdays I ever went through. Nowadays, we are all hopefully, hopefully, hopefully coming out of the pandemic, so the mood of the country is similar.

Appalachian State winning in Ann Arbor was huge, but it was just one game. I have two cousins from North Carolina who both went there, and they probably still are proud of it to this day. The Reds sweeping the A's was also huge, but to me the bigger worst-to-first story in baseball were the '69 New York Mets.

If Joe Burrow leads the Bengals to a Super Bowl win, it will go down as a victory for the ages and Hollywood would probably make a movie about it at some point. They did for Kurt Warner!

[Fan_in_Kettering]

(02-13-2022, 09:34 AM)WiregrassBenGal Wrote: This is a huge underdog story, which is why the hype for this Super Bowl is so huge.

If Joe Burrow leads the Bengals to a Super Bowl win, it will go down as a victory for the ages and Hollywood would probably make a movie about it at some point.

A movie? That would mean Macaulay Culkin would be cast as Joe Burrow.

[WiregrassBenGal]

(02-13-2022, 09:40 AM)Fan_in_Kettering Wrote: A movie?  That would mean Macaulay Culkin would be cast as Joe Burrow.

Ha, ha. Do you think anyone has ever asked Joe B. to clasp his hands to his face and go, "AAAAAAARRRRGGHHH!"

[Soonerpeace]

The Bengals roster needed major work. Mgt had had a tendency to get attached to certain players and they weren’t earning their salaries. Just a big complacency set in. The younger Brown mgt team finally started winning some player personnel battles with Mike. When disaster struck in Zac’s first year it hit their personal pocketbooks and then the next year was the pandemic. They had no choice but ressurect this team. They had the pieces in a coach with a plan, a top notch QB, and they got lucky in FA and the draft. I’m not minimizing Zac,Duke, and all the coaches incredible work in making the acquisitions be great. I’m just saying you still need some luck.

The Browns have gotten a taste of the excitement and see how much it’s meant to the city. Let’s hope that they enjoy it so much they keep aggressive in FA. I suspect the younger Browns are having more input. They hired a young inexperienced head coach who has grown tremendously but one thing he always had was a vision and a process that was great. The key moving forward is having a roster that can withstand injuries to key players. They aren’t there yet.

[Goalpost]

Also made into a movie, I think this is one of the greatest upsets ever. https://youtu.be/4Fttt3fFTxk

[t3r3e3]

(02-13-2022, 03:26 AM)grampahol Wrote: About the same odds as me winning the lotto and giving it all away to my ex wife who I haven't seen in over 35 years since my daughter was a year and a half old..

Gramps giving us the real world example we crave! Don’t change compadre…

[*Awful Llama*]

Cinderella story. Outta nowhere.

[fredtoast]

(02-13-2022, 12:12 PM)Awful Llama Wrote: Cinderella story. Outta nowhere.

Rep

[masonbengals fan]

What a unforgettable awesome season.

[Tony]

I put 100$ on 15000+ in August to win the superbowl..

[*Nately120*]

I didn't see them making the SB this quickly, but Burrow was a no brainer 1st overall franchise savior QB. There is only so much surprise I can muster for a guy who is that good living up to expectations.

[Tony]

(02-13-2022, 10:56 AM)Soonerpeace Wrote: The Bengals roster needed major work. Mgt had had a tendency to get attached to certain players and they weren’t earning their salaries. Just a big complacency set in. The younger Brown mgt team finally started winning some player personnel battles with Mike. When disaster struck in Zac’s first year it hit their personal pocketbooks and then the next year was the pandemic. They had no choice but ressurect this team. They had the pieces in a coach with a plan, a top notch QB, and they got lucky in FA and the draft. I’m not minimizing Zac,Duke, and all the coaches incredible work in making the acquisitions be great. I’m just saying you still need some luck.

The Browns have gotten a taste of the excitement and see how much it’s meant to the city. Let’s hope that they enjoy it so much they keep aggressive in FA. I suspect the younger Browns are having more input. They hired a young inexperienced head coach who has grown tremendously but one thing he always had was a vision and a process that was great. The key moving forward is having a roster that can withstand injuries to key players. They aren’t there yet.

They are in the superbowl, wtf you mean not there yet!?!?

[Speedy Thomas]

Hickory 42, South Bend Central 40

Norman Dale = Zac

Jimmy Chitwood = Joe

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TdT_PiRLsaI

[fredtoast]

The Bengals "worst-to-first" story is great, but not one of the all-time greats.

To me there are three "upsets" that were bigger than all others.  The 1980 Olympic hockey team's "miracle on Ice", Buster Douglas beating Mike Tyson, and Appy State winning in The Big House.  I was not alive for the Jets winning Super Bowl III, but I'd put it on the same level.

If we win the Super Bowle this year it will be in the same class with the '81 Forty Niner, and '99 Rams.  The '99 Rams were actually a bigger story because they had not had a winning season in a decade when they won the Super Bowl.

BTW for everyone who claims the Bengals were always the "laughingstock" of the league, when the Cardinals made it to the Super Bowl in 2008 that was just their second winning season in TWENTY-THREE YEARS  That puts Mike Brown's incompetence to shame.