Are we being realistic with Free Agency expectations?

[Soonerpeace]

One thing not really being discussed is other impacts. Logan Wilson I think continues to improve, Pratt, Carman let’s hope, Chris Evans, and then Ossai is available. I think even Chase and Burrow can be better. Another year in this offense and even the entire receiving corp can mesh even more.

[Housh]

(02-23-2022, 07:43 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: One thing not really being discussed is other impacts. Logan Wilson I think continues to improve, Pratt, Carman let’s hope, Chris Evans, and then Ossai is available. I think even Chase and Burrow can be better. Another year in this offense and even the entire receiving corp can mesh even more.

Burrow is an almost genius at QB but Chase is a smart WR as well. With an offensive line that can actually block I think Chase is gonna showcase that TJ Housh, Cooper Kupp level football IQ. 

We also need to send him on more routes than streaks. Hes way better than being used like John Ross.

[BengalFanInNJ]

(02-20-2022, 09:16 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: You didn't have a ninja or anything, so I can't tell if this is sarcasm or not.

Sanu averaged 448 yards/3 TDs per year as a receiver in 4 years as a Bengal. That does not offset the difference between a solid starting guard and a 6x Pro Bowl, 1x 2nd Team All-Pro, 2x 1st Team All-Pro guard.

I agree with this sentiment, however, let's not pretend that the reason DeCastro achieved all of those awards is because he was on the Steelers. Had had he been a Bengal, I guarantee you he wouldn't have had all of those awards. 

[casear2727]

(02-23-2022, 10:39 PM)Housh Wrote: Burrow is an almost genius at QB but Chase is a smart WR as well. With an offensive line that can actually block I think Chase is gonna showcase that TJ Housh, Cooper Kupp level football IQ. 

We also need to send him on more routes than streaks. Hes way better than being used like John Ross.

I think that is a product of the lack of oline. How many deep routes are there with the 3 step drop? With time Burrow can ooen the play book to 5-7 pass concepts with double moves and deep posts.

[Ell Prez]

(02-20-2022, 09:25 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Here is how I would approach our cap space requirements:

The way I see it, we need to sign a starting free safety, a starting 3 tech, a starting cornerback, a starting TE and 2 to 3 new starting offensive linemen.

Let's just go down the list one by one and fill these needs.

For free safety, the obvious move is to sign Bates. I am not sure if we'll be able to sign him to a long term contract because the franchise tag is currently about 13 million dollars for safeties. If Bates does want to be the highest paid safety in the league, that would mean paying him more than what the Seahawks gave Jamal Adams, which was about 17.5 million AAV.

Side note, Adams' contract is the perfect example of why you should never trade multiple first round picks for a player near the end of their contract without a new contract extension being a contingent to completing the trade. As soon as the Seahawks made that trade, Adams knew he could ask for the world, and Seattle would have to give it to him because the sunk cost fallacy would have kicked in.

But I digress, I just don't see us giving Bates an 18 million AAV contract, so let's just say we franchise tag him for that 13 million dollar price tag.

Our cap space, is about 58 million or so for 2022. If we cut Waynes (which we will), it'll be above 69 million.

So franchise tagging Bates leaves us at 56 million remaining.

On to 3 tech DT.
I hope we re-sign either Ogunjobi or Hill, but I honestly loved having them in a rotation. I think both players benefited from the rotation, so I have my concerns that re-signing one of them will yield close to the same results in 2022. The odds of us resigning both at a reasonable price is low so I wouldn't mind looking elsewhere for a full time pass rusher at DT who doesn't need to be rotated to produce. Akiem Hicks would be an awfully attractive option if available and PFF estimates that his contract would be a 2 years, 17 million (8.5 million per year). If Hicks isn't available and we have to rely on a rotation, I think signing either Ogunjobi or Hill + taking a flier on another player would be good. Sheldon Richardson could also be a low cost "prove it" option to pair with either Hill or Ogunjobi to accomplish the same thing we did on 2021 with Hill and Ogunjobi. PFF estimates that Richardson will sign a 1 year, 3 million dollar prove it deal this year. They estimate B.J. Hill to get a 3 year 26.25 million dollar contract (8.75 million per year). That's a bit steep, in my opinion, but let's say we give him that and backload it a wee bit in order to have only a cap hit of 6 million in 2022. Either way we go, we're looking at 9 to 10 million dedicated to fixing up DT. That would leave us with 46 million left.

At CB, there are a pretty good number of corners who I think fit our scheme pretty well. If they resign Apple as a 1 to 2 million dollar back up, I think it would be a good move, but he should definitely not be the starter next year.

I know some people are pitching going all in on CB and grabbing JC Jackson, but I think he will be too expensive and is primarily a man corner, which doesn't really fit our scheme.

There are 4 cornerbacks I'd take a long, hard look at in this year's free agency class.
1. Donte Jackson
2. Casey Hayward Jr
3. Steven Nelson
4. D.J. Reed Jr

Donte Jackson would be an ideal #2 cornerback in a zone scheme like ours that doesn't break the bank. PFF is projecting a 2 year, 20 million dollar contract.
Casey Heyward may be a steal in free agency this year. He's on the older side and is only 1 year removed from his career worst year, but he played well in Oakland and fits our zone heavy scheme well. PFF is estimating a 1 year 6.5 million dollar contract for him.
Steven Nelson and D.J. Reed Jr are similar prospects in that they're slightly undersized zone corners who are limited in man coverage. While we play a lot of zone, we aren't a zone only team like Oakland's Cover 3 scheme, so these two would probably depend on Lou's comfortability with them fitting his scheme, but they are both quality zone corners who we could bring in for under 8 million per year. PFF projects them as 7 million per year (2 years, 14 million) and 8 million per year (3 years, 24 million), respectively.

Let's say we go tot he high end and sign Jackson to a 10M AAV contract. We also sign Eli Apple to a 1 year, 1.5 million dollar contract again. That leaves our cap space at 34.5 million.

At this point, I think it's fair to account for the Bengal's 2022 rookie draft pool, which is estimated to be about 7.6 million by overthecap.com

So that drops our available cap space for the Oline to 27 million dollars.

I know everyone wants to bring back C.J. Uzomah, but I'm not sure we can afford to do so unless he takes a hometown discount. PFF is estimating his contract at 3 years, 25 million (8.333 AAV) which is just...a lot of money for C.J. If we can sign him for 6M AAV, I think that would be a good deal. Otherwise, we may need to allocate this money elsewhere. Probably would mean we draft a TE in the 2nd day.

Let's say we are able to get him back for a 6 million dollar cap hit in 2022. That leaves 21 million for the offensive line. I know the Bengals always want to hold back 5 to 10 million for in-year signings and roll-over (we rolled 5 million over this year), so let's assume that we now have 15 million for the offensive line.

That would allow us to sign two starting level players at center and guard and maybe push a little money into the latter years to keep us under for 2022.

PFF estimates Laken Tomlinson, Connor Williams, James Daniels, Austin Corbett, Andrew Norwell, Alex Cappa, Quinton Spain, Ryan Jensen, Ben Jones, Brian Allen or Bradley Bozeman could be had for 9M, 6.67M, 10M, 9.25M, 7.25M, 9.25M, 4.75M, 13M, 6.67M, 7.25M or 7M AAV, respectively.

PFF also estimates that Terron Armstead, Orlando Brown Jr, Duane Brown, Morgan Moses, Trent Brown, Riley Reiff or Germain Ifedi could be had for 20M, 21M, 10M, 7.5M, 10M, 7M, or 6M AAV, respectively.

With a budget of 15 Million, the top guys like Terron Armstead, Orlando Brown Jr , Trent Brown and James Daniels are probably out. We also probably stay away from centers this year, since Hopkins is still under contract.

But, we could sign 2 starting guards in Spain and, say, Connor Williams for about 12M per year (6.67 + 4.75). That would leave us with 3M for back ups and role players. If we shift contract cap hits around, we can probably make room for Riley Reiff as well. Maybe give him a void year to make his cap hit 3.5 M. If we did this, I think the wise move would be to use the draft to find a starting RT of the future and fill up depth on the Dline and maybe TE, depending on what we do with Uzomah.

That would leave us with a total free agent pool of Jessie Bates, BJ Hill, Sheldon Richardson, Donte Jackson, Eli Apple, CJ Uzomah, Quinton Spain, Connor Williams and Riley Reiff.

I know this probably won't happen and it doesn't account for back ups who deserve contracts like Josh Tupou, but the point is we have more than enough cap space to either fix the offensive line in free agency or fix the other needs on the team such that we can focus our draft on the offensive line.

Our team should be vastly improved in 2022 and I don't think people are being all that unrealistic with what we can do in free agency.

Great break down. Appreciate the time that took.

If we end FA with our only O line upgrades being Connor Williams, I will be extremely pissed. We need minimum 2 OL, preferably 3. Everything else can wait. Give me Mason Shrek and Dre sample at TE. Give me Eli apple at CB, any DT. But we MUST Upgrade OL in a massive way. We don’t need our D to carry us in the playoffs like they did. We need our online to not be the worst in the pkayoffs so Burrow can let it rip.

[puddycat]

Ali Marpet announced his retirement. I think we can expect the Bucs to use that money to retain Jensen or Cappa.

[SuperBowlBound!]

(02-20-2022, 01:19 PM)QueenCity Wrote: I would like to see the Bengals get creative with the Cap.... think the Saints and Chiefs have done crazy jobs manipulating it.

 
I do not want them to mortgage our future to be better the next couple of years. They are doing fine with how they are handling the Cap Space now and I am sure they have a plan for future contracts as they come up.

[SuperBowlBound!]

(02-27-2022, 07:58 PM)puddycat Wrote: Ali Marpet announced his retirement.  I think we can expect the Bucs to use that money to retain Jensen or Cappa.

They save 10 million on contract but get hit with 7.15 of dead cap for the 2 years of signing bonus. So they save 2.85 million Cap Space. They were at 6,873,000 now their cap space is $9,723,000. They have 46 players under contract.
It does make them have to address signing one of them and hope to replace the other in the draft.

[NUGDUKWE]

(02-24-2022, 08:51 PM)Ell Prez Wrote: Great break down. Appreciate the time that took.

If we end FA with our only O line upgrades being Connor Williams, I will be extremely pissed. We need minimum 2 OL, preferably 3. Everything else can wait. Give me Mason Shrek and Dre sample at TE. Give me Eli apple at CB, any DT. But we MUST Upgrade OL in a massive way. We don’t need our D to carry us in the playoffs like they did. We need our online to not be the worst in the pkayoffs so Burrow can let it rip.

Definitely agree that the Oline needs to be the first priority by a lot. But I think we need to still keep adding depth and potential starters to the defense. We got extremely lucky with health and it doesn't matter how good your offense is if the defense struggles. Just look at the Bills the took the lead with 13 secs left and still couldn't hang on to win. But having said that I agree maintain our own defense in free agency get a couple solid pieces for the oline. Then go oline in rd 1 most likely but then I think defense will trump any skill players for me in the next few rds.

[jeremydc]

I expect one or two mid tier o linemen, a failed first rounder CB , and random no names who provide adequate depth

[jj22]

(02-27-2022, 08:23 PM)SuperBowlBound! Wrote:  
I do not want them to mortgage our future to be better the next couple of years. They are doing fine with how they are handling the Cap Space now and I am sure they have a plan for future contracts as they come up.

Are we better in the future if Burrow suffers another major injury and his career projection is pretty much done for? One more busted knee and he is done. Name me a QB who has come back to play at a high level from two major knee injuries....

We were fairly close to this point in only his second year. It's alarming, and we got a rare second chance. Holding back protecting Burrow because of being worried about cap 5 years from now isn't worth the gamble.

[SunsetBengal]

(03-01-2022, 10:49 AM)jj22 Wrote: Are we better in the future if Burrow suffers another major injury and his career projection is pretty much done for? One more busted knee and he is done. Name me a QB who has come back to play at a high level from two major knee injuries....

We were fairly close to this point in only his second year. It's alarming, and we got a rare second chance. Holding back protecting Burrow because of being worried about cap 5 years from now isn't worth the gamble.

That's a great point, and one that I'd like to add a little reinforcement to.  I'll go so far as to say that with putting a strong line in front of Burrow, in a couple years he won't need "top level" skill players to pick teams apart with and put big points on the board.  As time goes by, Burrow will be making stars out of relative unknowns, so long as he has a little time to survey the field.

[Soonerpeace]

Ell Prez

That’s a great post but we have approximately 17 more roster spots to fill. Draft takes about 7 but if 10 are left that’s about 15 million you haven’t accounted for isn’t it?

[MileHighGrowler]

(03-01-2022, 11:13 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: That's a great point, and one that I'd like to add a little reinforcement to.  I'll go so far as to say that with putting a strong line in front of Burrow, in a couple years he won't need "top level" skill players to pick teams apart with and put big points on the board.  As time goes by, Burrow will be making stars out of relative unknowns, so long as he has a little time to survey the field.

And with rookie contracts being up for several guys in a few years, you'd almost think that's what is going to have to happen.  

The window in the NFL to be successful doesn't last forever.  It seems it's usually a few years.  I'm not saying the team should screw themselves for the future, but it's not like they're going to easily build a decade-long dynasty.  Strike now and get that line top-notch.  

[SunsetBengal]

(03-01-2022, 12:15 PM)MileHighGrowler Wrote: And with rookie contracts being up for several guys in a few years, you'd almost think that's what is going to have to happen.  

The window in the NFL to be successful doesn't last forever.  It seems it's usually a few years.  I'm not saying the team should screw themselves for the future, but it's not like they're going to easily build a decade-long dynasty.  Strike now and get that line top-notch.  

Having a strong OL and a stout defense worked for a long, long time with Brady and the Patriots, as he was able to turn average receivers into household names with smart play design and quick thinking.

[MileHighGrowler]

(03-01-2022, 12:25 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Having a strong OL and a stout defense worked for a long, long time with Brady and the Patriots, as he was able to turn average receivers into household names with smart play design and quick thinking.

Very true!  Brady was also taking some team friendly contracts which helped as well.  I don't think it's possible to have a long-lasting dynasty in this league without that.  If every guy is looking to get paid every time his contract is up (or won't allow any restructuring) it's nearly impossible to fund the team without a lot of turnover. 

Looking at the Bengals team this past season, I think everyone would agree they would have been an unstoppable force if their OL was better.  Now they're in the spot of having to balance it out on both sides of the ball.  Trying to keep that delicate balance I think is going to lead to a middling OL again.  The defense got them to the SB, but the OL lost it. 

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-01-2022, 11:13 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: That's a great point, and one that I'd like to add a little reinforcement to.  I'll go so far as to say that with putting a strong line in front of Burrow, in a couple years he won't need "top level" skill players to pick teams apart with and put big points on the board.  As time goes by, Burrow will be making stars out of relative unknowns, so long as he has a little time to survey the field.

(03-01-2022, 12:15 PM)MileHighGrowler Wrote: And with rookie contracts being up for several guys in a few years, you'd almost think that's what is going to have to happen.  

The window in the NFL to be successful doesn't last forever.  It seems it's usually a few years.  I'm not saying the team should screw themselves for the future, but it's not like they're going to easily build a decade-long dynasty.  Strike now and get that line top-notch.  

(03-01-2022, 12:25 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Having a strong OL and a stout defense worked for a long, long time with Brady and the Patriots, as he was able to turn average receivers into household names with smart play design and quick thinking.

(03-01-2022, 12:33 PM)MileHighGrowler Wrote: Very true!  Brady was also taking some team friendly contracts which helped as well.  I don't think it's possible to have a long-lasting dynasty in this league without that.  If every guy is looking to get paid every time his contract is up (or won't allow any restructuring) it's nearly impossible to fund the team without a lot of turnover. 

Looking at the Bengals team this past season, I think everyone would agree they would have been an unstoppable force if their OL was better.  Now they're in the spot of having to balance it out on both sides of the ball.  Trying to keep that delicate balance I think is going to lead to a middling OL again.  The defense got them to the SB, but the OL lost it. 

Agree with everything said here. Bring back our own from last year that helped us to the Superbowl and get the O-line 
fortified now in front of Burrow for years to come and we could become that next dynasty like the Patriots were with Brady.

As Sunset says Burrow with a great OL can make stars out of mid level NFL Receivers like Brady did. Burrow has fantastic 
accuracy already and is great at throwing to his Receivers on the run. Also think Burrow is selfless like Brady in that he would
take team friendly contracts after his initial big contract to stick around if we keep a top O-line in front of him.

[*SHRacerX*]

(02-17-2022, 03:44 PM)casear2727 Wrote: CincyWestside made an interesting post in the thread "The minimum for me to be satisfied".

His take seems to cover a majority of the posters here and on twitter. I thought it would be interesting to see how these numbers work.

First, sign Bates long term. Front load the contract so we are hampered when it comes time to pay Burrow, Chase, and Higgins.

Second, sign CJ. Great team leader and provides adaquate production from the TE considering the WR group we have.

Third, sign either Ogunjobi or Hill. I prefer Og, but if he gets too pricey then divert that to Hill. Or if both are cheap enough, then sign both.

Fourth, see if Gronk is serious about playing with Burrow. He'd be great to use in redzone and late game situations. He might enjoy it more when he's not leaned on as much as the Pats and Bucs needed him to do.

Fifth, rebuild the OL in FA. No more drafting players to fill OL holes. We have a bad record of it. I prefer maybe 1 top tier OL FA (pricey) and then 2 solid ones. I trust Zac to find guys who fit our system like he did last offseason.


Sign Bates, CJ, Hill, Gronk, 1 Top OL, 2 Solid OL totals around $78M and that is without front loading Bates.

$78M is more than we have after cutting Waynes, zero for the draft, and we still need to sign/replace 13 more players:

Larry Ogunjobi
Josh Tupou
Vernon Hargreaves
Kevin Huber
Brandon Allen
Clark Harris
Eli Apple
Jordan Evans
Mike Thomas
Jalen Davis
Tre Flowers
Darius Phillips
Auden Tate

It is crazy how fast the dollars add up and this is with our our LBers and offensive stars still on rookie contracts.  We might need to temper our expectations for this offseason and be prepared for some tough biz decisions down the road once the rookie contracts expire.

I am sure we can all find more savings but this is the data I used:

Signing Bates longterm to meet his terms as one of the highest paid safeties is $16M - 18M

CJ is projected to be at $8.3M

Hill is projected to be at 8.75M.  Ogunjobi prior to injury was projected higher than Hill.

Gronk was paid $8M this past season.

1 top tier Oline.   Armstead (T) 20M, Scherff (G) 17M, Jensen (C.) 13M.  (used 17M avg for calculation, replaced Reiff on player list)

2 solid oline.   T Brown (T) 10M, Moses (T) 8M, Tomlinson (G) 9M, Daniels (G) 10M.  (used 19M for calculation, replaced Spain and Johnson on player list)

Good stuff and thanks for all the financial work.  I hate that shit.  But, it is a part of it...I just hate calculating it all. 

Here's my idea:

Sign Bates....I don't want the damn franchise tag.  I know it might save $3 million over his projected contract dollars this year, but i HATE what it says to the team.  This guy deserves the security.  

Sign BJ Hill.  Everyone will want LOJ (new acronym...like it?), but I like Hill better for what he provides in consistency.  

Sign Cj Uzomah.  It can't kill us, but based on what he is projected, he is worth that and more for his toughness and character.  

The only FA I am going for outside Cincy is Armstead.  He is the best RT available without compensation.  I love the guy.  Try to draft Lindenbaum or sign Jensen to play C.  Move Hopkins to RG and the line is vastly improved over last year.  Carman, Smith, Price, and Adeniji are quality depth.

I think Apple was on a one year deal, so I would try to sign him as the veteran and draft a CB in the first couple rounds to develop behind him.  

That's it.

As far as my first round pick goes, unless a CB drops, I want another pass rusher.