Are we being realistic with Free Agency expectations?

[casear2727]

(02-18-2022, 06:16 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I am a UT fan.

Trey Smith is an absolute stud when healthy.  

 Absolutely!  Watched him since his HS days.  Knoxville is a couple hundred miles and change away from Cincy, we should had been on this guy. 

Let's get Duke some more resources.  KC goes to the SB, not happy with their oline and they draft 2 complete studs, sign a big name FA, and find a disgruntled solid OT to trade for in one offseason.  This result can probably never be duplicated but the effort can.  

[*ochocincos*]

(02-17-2022, 03:44 PM)casear2727 Wrote: CincyWestside made an interesting post in the thread "The minimum for me to be satisfied".

His take seems to cover a majority of the posters here and on twitter. I thought it would be interesting to see how these numbers work.

First, sign Bates long term. Front load the contract so we are hampered when it comes time to pay Burrow, Chase, and Higgins.

Second, sign CJ. Great team leader and provides adaquate production from the TE considering the WR group we have.

Third, sign either Ogunjobi or Hill. I prefer Og, but if he gets too pricey then divert that to Hill. Or if both are cheap enough, then sign both.

Fourth, see if Gronk is serious about playing with Burrow. He'd be great to use in redzone and late game situations. He might enjoy it more when he's not leaned on as much as the Pats and Bucs needed him to do.

Fifth, rebuild the OL in FA. No more drafting players to fill OL holes. We have a bad record of it. I prefer maybe 1 top tier OL FA (pricey) and then 2 solid ones. I trust Zac to find guys who fit our system like he did last offseason.


Sign Bates, CJ, Hill, Gronk, 1 Top OL, 2 Solid OL totals around $78M and that is without front loading Bates.

$78M is more than we have after cutting Waynes, zero for the draft, and we still need to sign/replace 13 more players:

Larry Ogunjobi
Josh Tupou
Vernon Hargreaves
Kevin Huber
Brandon Allen
Clark Harris
Eli Apple
Jordan Evans
Mike Thomas
Jalen Davis
Tre Flowers
Darius Phillips
Auden Tate

It is crazy how fast the dollars add up and this is with our our LBers and offensive stars still on rookie contracts.  We might need to temper our expectations for this offseason and be prepared for some tough biz decisions down the road once the rookie contracts expire.

I am sure we can all find more savings but this is the data I used:

Signing Bates longterm to meet his terms as one of the highest paid safeties is $16M - 18M

CJ is projected to be at $8.3M

Hill is projected to be at 8.75M.  Ogunjobi prior to injury was projected higher than Hill.

Gronk was paid $8M this past season.

1 top tier Oline.   Armstead (T) 20M, Scherff (G) 17M, Jensen (C.) 13M.  (used 17M avg for calculation, replaced Reiff on player list)

2 solid oline.   T Brown (T) 10M, Moses (T) 8M, Tomlinson (G) 9M, Daniels (G) 10M.  (used 19M for calculation, replaced Spain and Johnson on player list)

Bengals will not sign anyone to the OL that will be $12+ mill a year, I don't think.
They'll want to keep a good number of their guys who helped get them to the Super Bowl.
I think they'll aim for getting 1-2 starters via outside FA, and then they'll try to address any further upgrades via the draft.

Priority based on current roster:
- RT (All they have there are Prince and Smith)
- RG (Can't rely on Adeniji or Carman, but at least there's more potential there than RT)
- LG (If Spain isn't re-signed)
- C (Hopkins entering final year of contract, over 30, and not a good run blocker)
- LT (Williams continues to improve but not elite)

[Shake n Blake]

(02-17-2022, 03:44 PM)casear2727 Wrote: $78M is more than we have after cutting Waynes, zero for the draft, and we still need to sign/replace 13 more players:

Larry Ogunjobi
Josh Tupou
Vernon Hargreaves
Kevin Huber
Brandon Allen
Clark Harris
Eli Apple
Jordan Evans
Mike Thomas
Jalen Davis
Tre Flowers
Darius Phillips
Auden Tate

I do think we'll have less than many of us thought, initially.

That said, of the players on this list, most of them won't cost much at all, and some of them will be replaced by draft picks.

- Ogunjobi's injury works in our favor
- Eli Apple didn't do enough to wash away the stench of the rest of his career
- Lot of small contracts and guys who will be replaced by rookies among the rest

I'm starting to lean towards "free agency will still be fun, but not quite the fiesta we thought when we first heard $78 million though".

We should be able to land a big lineman and maybe another decent one. Do that and use the #31 pick on the line as well, and we'll be in great shape. Plus I foresee being able to retain most of our own.

[Bengalfan4life27c]

(02-18-2022, 08:05 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I do think we'll have less than many of us thought, initially.

That said, of the players on this list, most of them won't cost much at all, and some of them will be replaced by draft picks.

- Ogunjobi's injury works in our favor
- Eli Apple didn't do enough to wash away the stench of the rest of his career
- Lot of small contracts and guys who will be replaced by rookies among the rest

I'm starting to lean towards "free agency will still be fun, but not quite the fiesta we thought when we first heard $78 million though".

We should be able to land a big lineman and maybe another decent one. Do that and use the #31 pick on the line as well, and we'll be in great shape. Plus I foresee being able to retain most of our own.

We need 4 lineman if it means we have to go weak at DT2 and CB2 so be it. We can cut Hopkins to free up additional money. If Burrow winds up like Luck would be  absolute travesty. Though I don't think Luck loved football though. Burrow does at some point the talent will start to diminish ever since Titans game his internal clock is already teetering.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

The idea of spending $33-35m/yr on just Bates, Uzomah, and Hill is hilariously bad.

Bates isn't worth anywhere near $16-18m/yr. I'm not even sure he's worth a $13m franchise tag. $18m/yr would make him tied for the 27th highest paid non-QB player in the entire NFL. Also.. why would you ever front load? That's nonsense.

Uzomah isn't worth anywhere near $8.3m/yr. That would make him the 8th highest paid TE in the league and he's heading into his age 29 season and has never reached 500 yards receiving before.

Hill isn't worth anywhere near $8.75m/yr. That would make him the 19th highest paid DT in the league and he's a part-time player non-starter. Jonathan Fanene part 2.

- - - - -

I get people have been reading Hobspin articles for years and years now, but you don't need to regurgitate that line of thinking in order to preemptively cover up for the 7th Annual Not Fixing The OL offseason.

[*bengalfan74*]

(02-18-2022, 08:25 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: The idea of spending $33-35m/yr on just Bates, Uzomah, and Hill is hilariously bad.

Bates isn't worth anywhere near $16-18m/yr. I'm not even sure he's worth a $13m franchise tag. $18m/yr would make him tied for the 27th highest paid non-QB player in the entire NFL. Also.. why would you ever front load? That's nonsense.

Uzomah isn't worth anywhere near $8.3m/yr. That would make him the 8th highest paid TE in the league and he's heading into his age 29 season and has never reached 500 yards receiving before.

Hill isn't worth anywhere near $8.75m/yr. That would make him the 19th highest paid DT in the league and he's a part-time player non-starter. Jonathan Fanene part 2.

- - - - -

I get people have been reading Hobspin articles for years and years now, but you don't need to regurgitate that line of thinking in order to preemptively cover up for the 7th Annual Not Fixing The OL offseason.

Agree

I'd love to see them bring back Uzomah but not at top of the heap prices. He's a good TE and good person/leader. But he's not a top 8 money type talent.

Bates likewise is a good. But I'm not paying him top 30 in the NFL money. In other words he's not that great.

[Cosmokramer]

What are the chances we go after Jensen and aquire gronk? I mean, I have CJ. And he’s great for morale and in the locker room, but it’s not as tho gronk is a cancer. This is a business, and while CJ is good for morale he is middle of the road TE with limited skills and big injury history, I know gronk has injury history as well, but at least he can block, and when he plays, he is much more dynamic

[samhain]

(02-18-2022, 08:25 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: The idea of spending $33-35m/yr on just Bates, Uzomah, and Hill is hilariously bad.

Bates isn't worth anywhere near $16-18m/yr. I'm not even sure he's worth a $13m franchise tag. $18m/yr would make him tied for the 27th highest paid non-QB player in the entire NFL. Also.. why would you ever front load? That's nonsense.

Uzomah isn't worth anywhere near $8.3m/yr. That would make him the 8th highest paid TE in the league and he's heading into his age 29 season and has never reached 500 yards receiving before.

Hill isn't worth anywhere near $8.75m/yr. That would make him the 19th highest paid DT in the league and he's a part-time player non-starter. Jonathan Fanene part 2.

- - - - -

I get people have been reading Hobspin articles for years and years now, but you don't need to regurgitate that line of thinking in order to preemptively cover up for the 7th Annual Not Fixing The OL offseason.

I like Hill a lot, but I feel like they'll try and bring back Ogunjobi on a discount after the injury.  Having those 2 most of the year was a privelidge we just won't get to carry into the 2022 season.  Better draft another DT.

[fredtoast]

(02-18-2022, 08:14 PM)Bengalfan4life27c Wrote:  If Burrow winds up like Luck would be  absolute travesty. 

For the love of god, can we stop with all this talk about Burrow being the same as Andrew Luck.

In Lucks final season he was only sacked 18 times in 639 attempts.

Meanwhile Russell Wilson was sacked an average of 63 times a year for 8 STRAIGHT SEASONS WITHOUT A SINGLE INJURY.

Andy Dalton was sacked 278 times as a Bengal without a single injury.

If Burrow is made out of glass no o-line will save him.

[fredtoast]

(02-18-2022, 08:25 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I get people have been reading Hobspin articles for years and years now, but you don't need to regurgitate that line of thinking in order to preemptively cover up for the 7th Annual Not Fixing The OL offseason.

Hobson is full of beans.  But so are the fans who say we should have spent $16 million on Thuney last year when we ended up with less than $6 million in cap space.  We could have manipulated the contract so that we could have had less than a $6 million cap hit last year, but then we would be looking at replacing 6 starers plus Hill and a bunch of other players for about $30 million.

[Bengalbug]

(02-18-2022, 11:55 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Hobson is full of beans.  But so are the fans who say we should have spent $16 million on Thuney last year when we ended up with less than $6 million in cap space.  We could have manipulated the contract so that we could have had less than a $6 million cap hit last year, but then we would be looking at replacing 6 starers plus Hill and a bunch of other players for about $30 million.

And maybe, just maybe, a super bowl to show for it. Just saying. You can’t always keep building for the future. At some point you need to put your chips in the middle of the table. The only team that was able to avoid this was patriots and Brady, which isn’t the norm.

It’s literally the most obvious thing we have ever seen. Get a good OL. I don’t care if our backups suck, as long as our starters are good. We played, down the stretch… 4 backup OL. It’s criminal… and somehow the bengals almost won in spite of that.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(02-18-2022, 11:55 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Hobson is full of beans.  But so are the fans who say we should have spent $16 million on Thuney last year when we ended up with less than $6 million in cap space.  We could have manipulated the contract so that we could have had less than a $6 million cap hit last year, but then we would be looking at replacing 6 starers plus Hill and a bunch of other players for about $30 million.

Sure but there's also a chance that if they had made that signing they wouldn't have to worry about how to fill back up the roster until after their Super Bowl Parade.

I'm not heartbroken about not getting Thuney, though. There's approximately 0 chance he would have declined to sign with the Chiefs after they offered him 5yr/$80m ($32m guaranteed at signing). That's top of the market money AND a team that had hosted 3 straight AFC Championships/been to 2 SBs in those 3 years. 

Players might turn down money looking for rings, and players might turn down rings looking for money... nobody is turning down getting both.

I was more heartbroken about not getting Corey Linsley. Also using the exact contract he got from the Chargers, it would have cost about $2.5m more in cap space in 2021 and $5.6m more in 2022... so that's not bad at all.

[fredtoast]

(02-19-2022, 12:27 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Sure but there's also a chance that if they had made that signing they wouldn't have to worry about how to fill back up the roster until after their Super Bowl Parade.

No way they sacrifice the future for the 2020 season when they did not even know if their star QB would be 100% healthy.

Our maybe instead of signing Reif they signed another "bargain bin" guy like Su'a-Filo or John Miller type to play RT.  Or maybe they don't even sign Ogunjobi or Awuzie or Hilton.

Like I said before.  Hobson's cap stories as BS, but so are the stories of the fans who claim we can sign anyone we want.

 

[fredtoast]

(02-19-2022, 12:17 AM)Bengalbug Wrote: You can’t always keep building for the future.  At some point you need to put your chips in the middle of the table. 

The worst time to sacrifice the future for a one time shot is when you don't know if your injured QB will be 100% healthy.

If we sign Thuney we probably cut back in other areas that helped us make it to the Super Bowl this year.

[Bengalbug]

(02-19-2022, 01:41 AM)fredtoast Wrote: The worst time to sacrifice the future for a one time shot is when you don't know if your injured QB will be 100% healthy.

If we sign Thuney we probably cut back in other areas that helped us make it to the Super Bowl this year.

Without upgrading the line, it’s apparent burrow won’t be 100% healthy. This is a silly argument Fred.

We could have signed thuney to a contract that had a cap hit that would have worked. It would escalate this year, but we could have done it.

[Whacked]

It’s not just about protecting a once in a generation franchise QB from getting killed; but getting a dang quality Oline that keeps him upright and buys him the time to do his job and showcase his talent. Hard to do with a mouthful of turf every game.

Having 300lb dudes coming straight at you nonstop also gets in your head too; lending itself to bad decisions, assuming you’re about to be food, even when not being hurried.

[fredtoast]

(02-19-2022, 09:03 AM)Bengalbug Wrote: Without upgrading the line, it’s apparent burrow won’t be 100% healthy.  This is a silly argument Fred.   it.

You don't even understand my argument.  Last year during the free agency period the Bengals had no idea if Burrow would be 100% ready for the season.  It would have been very stupid to sacrifice the future in order to try and win in 2020 when they did not know if their star QB would be at top form for 2020.

And why do you consider sacks to be a death sentence for Burrow when lots of QBs have been sacked a lot more thna him with no serious injuries.  You really think Joe is made of glass like Eifert?

[fredtoast]

(02-19-2022, 09:03 AM)Bengalbug Wrote: We could have signed thuney to a contract that had a cap hit that would have worked.  It would escalate this year,  but we could have done it.

If we spent $80 million on Thunet then we are passing on one of our other top signings like Reif, Awuzie, Hilton, or Ogunjobi.

[CloeHokie]

With our success and Burrow I think we will have a much better shot at getting the guys we want. Or some of them. Players are wanting to come here now. We are lucky to know exactly what our problem is.

[THE PISTONS]

(02-19-2022, 09:03 AM)Bengalbug Wrote: Without upgrading the line, it’s apparent burrow won’t be 100% healthy.  This is a silly argument Fred.  

We could have signed thuney to a contract that had a cap hit that would have worked.  It would escalate this year,  but we could have done it.

I do agree with Fred that if we signed Thuney and not Hendrickson and Awuzie that we probably don't make the SB.

The Chiefs signed Thuney by making the 1st year cap hit low. They'll pay eventually and I doubt he sees the end of that contract as a Chief.