Easy answer to our short yardage probems.

[*rfaulk34*]

(02-26-2022, 04:42 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Some people prefer "common sense" to actual facts and production.

And you will never change their mind.

But i'll never stop trying!

[BFritz21]

(02-26-2022, 04:37 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: It may take a bit longer to get up to speed but if the line is getting pushed back there is more time to make decisions and cuts. We all have our preferences but stats back up that shotgun is more effective.

It's subjective though.

Common sense says that Mixon or even Perine would have had a better shot at getting the first down if Burrow had been under center.

Perine or Mixon would have gotten to the line a split second faster so he could have gotten the little bit more we needed.

[*rfaulk34*]

(02-26-2022, 04:45 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: It's subjective though.

Common sense says that Mixon or even Perine would have had a better shot at getting the first down if Burrow had been under center.

Perine or Mixon would have gotten to the line a split second faster so he could have gotten the little bit more we needed.

Raw statistical data isn't subjective. Common sense is hypothetical. 

[BFritz21]

(02-26-2022, 04:42 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Some people prefer "common sense" to actual facts and production.

And you will never change their mind.

But yet you can't produce any arguments that logically counter mine.

Some people prefer lies and personal attacks to real world knowledge.

And it has been become obvious that no one can change that.

[*rfaulk34*]

(02-26-2022, 04:45 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: Perine or Mixon would have gotten to the line a split second faster so he could have gotten the little bit more we needed.

A body in motion tends to stay in motion. An under center handoff is taken 5 yards behind the LoS. A shotgun handoff is taken 4 yards behind the line of scrimmage. The speed that is lost is minimal and made up for by having more options to move laterally or cut.

[fredtoast]

(02-26-2022, 04:47 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: But yet you can't produce any arguments that logically counter mine.

Actual facts and production prove that you are wrong.

The conversion rate on short yardage runs is higher from the shotgun than it is from under center.

Facts.

[BFritz21]

(02-26-2022, 04:51 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Actual facts and production prove that you are wrong.

The conversion rate on short yardage runs is higher from the shotgun than it is from under center.

Facts.

Like I said, common sense and eye tests prove that I am right.

[*rfaulk34*]

(02-26-2022, 05:14 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: Like I said, common sense and eye tests prove that I am right.

No it doesn't. That's opinion. Opinion =/= facts. 

[BFritz21]

(02-26-2022, 04:42 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Some people prefer "common sense" to actual facts and production.

And you will never change their mind.

(02-26-2022, 04:45 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: But i'll never stop trying!

Go here and watch the play.

The linebackers react immediately, meaning they would have at least gotten there at the same speed as if Burrow were under center.

However, Perine pauses a split second, steps to the side towards Burrow, and isn't running as fast as he would have been if he had just started running straight at the line, meaning he would have gotten farther up the field, even if just a half yard and gotten the first.

Those are facts.

[Nickslycat]

(02-26-2022, 04:51 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Actual facts and production prove that you are wrong.

The conversion rate on short yardage runs is higher from the shotgun than it is from under center.

Facts.

When the Bengals line up with Burrow under center, they run 80% of the time, this is is why play action, or a pass is more effective, the line blocks like it a run, the defense reads their OL keys and usually plays it as a run, which gives more favorable matchups to the receivers.
Running out of the shotgun is just the opposite, the OL pass blocks, to fool the defense.  If you run out of the shotgun 80% of the time, nobody is fooling the defense.
Go back and watch the rams first td to Cupp.  The entire line was run blocking, including Cupp.  Apple was playing the run because he was fooled by the play action, it also explains why there wasn’t a double team on Cupp.
It has absolutely nothing to do with where the running back gets the ball.  
Brad is 100% right.
YouTube is a good place to learn the fundamentals of football.
Fixing this sorry ass line would work wonders to fix their short yardage woes. 

[ElkValleyBengal]

I assume all this statistical data takes into account all running plays. It probably doesn't account for QB runs on passing plays. Guys like Lamar and Josh can really skew the average yards per run, especially on plays that weren't designed to be runs at all.

[*rfaulk34*]

(02-26-2022, 05:27 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: Go here and watch the play.

The linebackers react immediately, meaning they would have at least gotten there at the same speed as if Burrow were under center.

However, Perine pauses a split second, steps to the side towards Burrow, and isn't running as fast as he would have been if he had just started running straight at the line, meaning he would have gotten farther up the field, even if just a half yard and gotten the first.

Those are facts.

Those words and "facts" can not go together, "logically". Those words are opinions.

Facts are that running plays from the shotgun are more productive.

[Tony]

(02-25-2022, 09:23 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: Exactly. 

My thought was "put Joe under center and give the ball to Mixon running straight at the line and let him get the first."

I was disgusted when we handed Perine the ball from the gun on 3rd and 1 (might have been 4th & 1. I'm trying to play poker and think about football at the same time).

That play call was the worst of the season and it will be magnified forever...

[BFritz21]

(02-26-2022, 05:32 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Those words and "facts" can not go together, "logically". Those words are opinions.

Facts are that running plays from the shotgun are more productive.

Watch the play and tell me how Perine wouldn't have gotten an more if he hadn't started running directly at the line when the ball was snapped when the linebackers started coming towards the line at the snap.

[BFritz21]

(02-26-2022, 05:34 PM)Tony Wrote: That play call was the worst of the season and it will be magnified forever...

Yep.

It likely cost us a Super Bowl win.

Luckily, we should have a few more chances with Burrow under center.

[*rfaulk34*]

(02-26-2022, 05:45 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: Watch the play and tell me how Perine wouldn't have gotten an more if he hadn't started running directly at the line when the ball was snapped when the linebackers started coming towards the line at the snap.

There was nothing there. That's why he paused. Shotgun or under center, the same result happens. If he had cut to the left, he'd probably still be running today.

[BFritz21]

(02-26-2022, 05:50 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: There was nothing there. That's why he paused. Shotgun or under center, the same result happens. If he had cut to the left, he'd probably still be running today.

That's my point: if he had started running at the line with Burrow under center, he wouldn't have paused and would have gotten there faster, which also means he would have gotten there faster than the linebackers, and would have likely gotten the first down.

[fredtoast]

(02-26-2022, 05:30 PM)Nickslycat Wrote: If you run out of the shotgun 80% of the time, nobody is fooling the defense.

It has nothing to do with "fooling the defense".  Even you admit that when Burrow goes under center we run the ball 80% of the time.  So we are not fooling any one then either.


Short yardage conversion rates are lower when running with the QB under center compared to running out of the shotgun.  That is a fact.  The numbers prove it.

[*rfaulk34*]

(02-26-2022, 06:17 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: That's my point: if he had started running at the line with Burrow under center, he wouldn't have paused and would have gotten there faster, which also means he would have gotten there faster than the linebackers, and would have likely gotten the first down.

People are entitled to their opinion. I don't think the play would have turned out any different.

The overall point is, running from the shotgun is statistically more effective.

[fredtoast]

(02-26-2022, 06:17 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: That's my point: if he had started running at the line with Burrow under center, he wouldn't have paused and would have gotten there faster, which also means he would have gotten there faster than the linebackers, and would have likely gotten the first down.

But he would not hav had the option to cut to the open hole.  So that decreases his chances.

Does not matter what your opinion is because we have stats that show that a team is mor likely to convert short yardage situations running out of the shotgun compared to the QB under center.