Easy answer to our short yardage probems.

[BFritz21]

(02-27-2022, 07:04 PM)Whatever Wrote: The video really proves nothing, because you are basing your position on the false assumption that if we lined up in a different formation, the Rams would line up the exact same way and play it the exact same way.  

This is a big mistake people make when criticizing play calling.  You can talk about why a play was a bad design or a bad situational call, but when you start going into "shoulda called X" territory, you're getting into a lot of false assumptions.  

Since you're changing the play and the formation and the Rams are not going to line up and play it exactly the same as the video, the only thing we can judge it on is the statistics Fred and Faulk have provided, which is that it is  statistically less likely to yield a first down than passing it or running it out of shotgun.

Burrow lines up under center with no other difference and how and why would they have lined up different?

In what way could they logically have reacted differently?

See, the flaw in your argument is that the defense played it like they knew we were going to run, so what's the difference for them if Burrow is in shotgun or not?

[BigPapaKain]

(02-28-2022, 12:28 AM)Tony Wrote: You cared enough to reply.. Man, I wish be could all be as badass as you...

I wish some of you paid more attention in English.

[Whatever]

(02-28-2022, 12:40 AM)BFritz21 Wrote: Burrow lines up under center with no other difference and how and why would they have lined up different?

In what way could they logically have reacted differently?

See, the flaw in your argument is that the defense played it like they knew we were going to run, so what's the difference for them if Burrow is in shotgun or not?

The Rams aren't playing run.  They're playing pass.  You can tell because both ends are lined up in a two point stance on the outside shoulders of the OT's.  If they were playing run, they'd be lined up tighter and they'd be in a three point stance to get leverage, which they would logically do based on tendency if you come out under center.  

If you pause your clip at 0:06, you can clearly see that if Donald doesn't destroy Adeniji and discard him to the inside, there's actually a hole there and potential blockers out in front for a possible big gain.  It's not a play call or play design issue.  It's a talent issue, specifically Adeniji.

It's honestly really frustrating to break this down presnap and frame by frame. Donald is lined up over Adeniji's outside shoulder, almost over Prince, and the other DT is lined up over Spain's inside shoulder, leaving a massive hole in the A gap. The Rams are blitzing a LB off the left side to stop Hopkins from helping Adeniji. Adeniji doesn't even have to get a push. He just has to pin Donald outside which should be relatively easy given the leverage Donald gives up presnap, but he still gets utterly annihilated.

[Nickslycat]

(02-27-2022, 01:58 PM)fredtoast Wrote: If "fooling the defense" makes any difference then running with Burrow under center would even be worse because we are even more likely to run from that formation.

So what exactly is your point?  Why is it better for JB to be under center when we run on short yardage

Short yardage = 3rd or 4th down, 2 yd or less to go.


Bengals conversion rate running the ball... 55.2% (30th in league)
Bengals conversion rate throwing the ball. 72.0% (3rd in league)

Joe Burrow in short yardage situations... 16-19, 84.2%, 277 yds, 4 td, 0 int, 158.3 rating, 15 first downs.


If you line up with Joey under center, and pass the ball 80% of the time, you are no longer “fooling the defense”,
I used running out of the shotgun as a example of, “fooling the defense”. I apologize if you are incapable of understanding a simple principle of football.


I don’t think you are dense, I just think you are incapable of admitting when you are wrong.

[BFritz21]

(02-28-2022, 02:06 AM)Whatever Wrote: The Rams aren't playing run.  They're playing pass.  You can tell because both ends are lined up in a two point stance on the outside shoulders of the OT's.  If they were playing run, they'd be lined up tighter and they'd be in a three point stance to get leverage, which they would logically do based on tendency if you come out under center.  

If you pause your clip at 0:06, you can clearly see that if Donald doesn't destroy Adeniji and discard him to the inside, there's actually a hole there and potential blockers out in front for a possible big gain.  It's not a play call or play design issue.  It's a talent issue, specifically Adeniji.

It's honestly really frustrating to break this down presnap and frame by frame.  Donald is lined up over Adeniji's outside shoulder, almost over Prince, and the other DT is lined up over Spain's inside shoulder, leaving a massive hole in the A gap.  The Rams are blitzing a LB off the left side to stop Hopkins from helping Adeniji.  Adeniji doesn't even have to get a push.  He just has to pin Donald outside which should be relatively easy given the leverage Donald gives up presnap, but he still gets utterly annihilated.

The one linebacker blitzes immediately and you can tell it's a run blitz because he hits the guard head on and doesn't try and shoot the gap or anything. 

It also looks like the strong safety starts towards the line at the snap.

There is such a thing as disguising defenses. In fact, the ends are in a two-point stance but they don't rush upfield like they're going to rush the passer, they just stay in the same spot or maybe take a step forward. They were playing the run. 

Donald is pushing the linemen inside and holding his ground, not rushing into the backfield. He's definitely playing the run.

[fredtoast]

(02-28-2022, 12:40 AM)BFritz21 Wrote: Burrow lines up under center with no other difference and how and why would they have lined up different?

LBs line up differently for two different reasons.

1.  In short yardage situations we run the ball more often when Burrow lines up under center.

2.  When Burrow receives the ball in shotgun he can throw immediately.  Under center he has to take at least a two step drop.  A LB lined up in the gap at the LOS can still drop in coverage if Burrow drops to pass.  A LB lined up in the gap at the LOS has no chance to drop even a step playing against Burrow in the gun.

You don't have a video of Perine making the first down in order to prove you are right.  Instead you play a video of Perine getting stuffed and play "make believe".  There is no way to say that the play would have unfolded exactly the same way if Burrow lines up under center.

You said so yourself that your opinion was based on "common sense" i.e. what "commonly" happens.  But stats prove that what "commonly happens" is that RBs convert more often in short yardage situations when they get the ball in the shotgun formation than with the QB under center. 

So that puts the burden on you to explain what was so "uncommon" about this particular play with Perine that would make the results different from what "common sense" tells us would more likely happen. 

[fredtoast]

(02-26-2022, 05:30 PM)Nickslycat Wrote: Brad is 100% correct

YouTube is a good place to learn the fundamentals of football.

(02-27-2022, 01:06 PM)Nickslycat Wrote: Running out of the shotgun has everything to do with “fooling the defense”.  For you to state otherwise is simply, ignorance!

(02-28-2022, 03:45 AM)Nickslycat Wrote:  I apologize if you are incapable of understanding a simple principle of football.


I don’t think you are dense, I just think you are incapable of admitting when you are wrong.

I am sorry for the misunderstanding, but I seriously don't know what you are trying to say.

This originally started when I stated that RBs are more likely to convert short yardage situations running from the shotgun formation instead of having the QB under center.

I was not wrong about that.  

And running out of the shotgun is not about fooling the defense because an overwhelming majority of ALL our plays, both RUNS and passes come out of the shotgun formation.

So what am I wrong about that I am refusing to admit?  

[BFritz21]

(02-28-2022, 01:41 PM)fredtoast Wrote: LBs line up differently for two different reasons.

1.  In short yardage situations we run the ball more often when Burrow lines up under center.

2.  When Burrow receives the ball in shotgun he can throw immediately.  Under center he has to take at least a two step drop.  A LB lined up in the gap at the LOS can still drop in coverage if Burrow drops to pass.  A LB lined up in the gap at the LOS has no chance to drop even a step playing against Burrow in the gun.

You don't have a video of Perine making the first down in order to prove you are right.  Instead you play a video of Perine getting stuffed and play "make believe".  There is no way to say that the play would have unfolded exactly the same way if Burrow lines up under center.

You said so yourself that your opinion was based on "common sense" i.e. what "commonly" happens.  But stats prove that what "commonly happens" is that RBs convert more often in short yardage situations when they get the ball in the shotgun formation than with the QB under center. 

So that puts the burden on you to explain what was so "uncommon" about this particular play with Perine that would make the results different from what "common sense" tells us would more likely happen. 

But the linebacker wasn't dropping to pass! He was coming up on a run blitz!

You ignore points and then throw out all that garbage instead of actually debating my points.

I made all my points about the linebackers loading the line, playing the run, even the safety playing the run, and you have yet to even attempt to argue how Perine wouldn't have gotten the extra step he needed if he had gotten started running towards the line at the snap and had more momentum.

My proof is right there.  If Perine had been running at the line from the snap, he would have gotten the needed yardage because the defense collapsed the line at the snap.

[Whatever]

(02-28-2022, 12:24 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: The one linebacker blitzes immediately and you can tell it's a run blitz because he hits the guard head on and doesn't try and shoot the gap or anything. 

It also looks like the strong safety starts towards the line at the snap.

There is such a thing as disguising defenses. In fact, the ends are in a two-point stance but they don't rush upfield like they're going to rush the passer, they just stay in the same spot or maybe take a step forward. They were playing the run. 

Donald is pushing the linemen inside and holding his ground, not rushing into the backfield. He's definitely playing the run.

No, the blitzing LB gets picked up by Jonah who is down blocking. He is trying to attack Spain's outside shoulder.  

The SS looks to be moving up as part of a coverage rotation.  Notice how the CB at the top of the screen completely bails into a deep zone?  That's a dead giveaway that they aren't playing run off the snap.

The DE's get held by Boyd coming in jet sweep motion and Uzomah coming in reverse motion.  Not to mention they know it's some kind of run when the Bengals fire off the LoS instead of dropping into pass sets.  They are in a bad defense for the Bengals play call, but win the rep anyway thanks to Donald wrecking Adeniji.  

[BFritz21]

(02-28-2022, 02:02 PM)Whatever Wrote: No, the blitzing LB gets picked up by Jonah who is down blocking. He is trying to attack Spain's outside shoulder.  

The SS looks to be moving up as part of a coverage rotation.  Notice how the CB at the top of the screen completely bails into a deep zone?  That's a dead giveaway that they aren't playing run off the snap.

The DE's get held by Boyd coming in jet sweep motion and Uzomah coming in reverse motion.  Not to mention they know it's some kind of run when the Bengals fire off the LoS instead of dropping into pass sets.  They are in a bad defense for the Bengals play call, but win the rep anyway thanks to Donald wrecking Adeniji.  

No. The only reason the CB would bail deep is because if there was no safety help over the top.

It's obviously a run blitz.

[Whatever]

(02-28-2022, 02:32 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: No. The only reason the CB would bail deep is because if there was no safety help over the top.

It's obviously a run blitz.

They had a single high S.  

I'm not conceding this is a "run blitz" by a long shot, but it doesn't matter if it is or isn't for this discussion.

The Rams can't play this alignment with the QB under C.  Know why?

Look at it presnap.  One DT is lined up on the C's outside shoulder and the other is lined up on the RG's outside shoulder.  All the QB has to do is goose the C and stick it in the A gap for an easy 1st down.  The Rams have to check to something else with the QB under C.  


Not to mention, the Bengals can't run a reasonable facsimile of their play due to the jetsweep motion of Boyd and reverse action of CJ interfering with Burrow trying to get the handoff to Perrine.  

[fredtoast]

(02-28-2022, 01:55 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: My proof is right there.  If Perine had been running at the line from the snap, he would have gotten the needed yardage because the defense collapsed the line at the snap.

Except the defense would have been different.  Everyone here is pointing this out to you, but you refuse to listen.

Youy have no proof.  You have a video that does not show what would have happened if Burrow had lined up under center.

And you refuse to explain what is so "uncommon" about this particular short yardage run so that "common sense" does not apply.  Stats prove that the most "common" outcome is that a RB has a better chance of converting a short yardage situation getting the ball in the shotgun instead of with the QB under center.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(02-27-2022, 12:24 PM)Sled21 Wrote: Seems to me if we need 1 yard, line them up in the I formation with Shelvin taught to play fullback ala Peko. The line engages into a stalemate as usual, Shelvin then blasts it with his huge body, and Mixon goes over the top. 1st down.

Would be nice to watch Shelvin way lay some people ha ha

He seemed out of shape the first game I watched him play in this last season. But he came back a week or 2 later and seemed 
in better shape and was taking on double teams like he is supposed to. Still think his body type reminds me of Vince Wilfork.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

Wow, you guys really went on a tangent here. Bottom line is we need Adeniji out of the starting Lineup and if Hopkins
sticks around he will need Spain back and a top tier Guard next to him to help him out. Hop has never been a good run
blocker which is my main reason for wanting another Center like Ryan Jensen, James Daniels, Brian Allen or Ben Jones
in FA over Hop. Hop is too expensive to keep as a backup as well so he will have to be cut.

Ryan Jensen, Laken Tomlinson/Norwell/Scherff, Morgan Moses/one of the Browns Trent or Duane and we will be much
better in short yardage situations.

[BFritz21]

(02-28-2022, 03:27 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Except the defense would have been different.  Everyone here is pointing this out to you, but you refuse to listen.

Youy have no proof.  You have a video that does not show what would have happened if Burrow had lined up under center.

And you refuse to explain what is so "uncommon" about this particular short yardage run so that "common sense" does not apply.  Stats prove that the most "common" outcome is that a RB has a better chance of converting a short yardage situation getting the ball in the shotgun instead of with the QB under center.

How would the defense be different?

Who pointed it out?  

The defense collapsed the line at the snap, so it couldn't have been worse if he were under center, yet Perine would have had more momentum and would have ht the line faster, giving him the ability to pick up the little bit of extra yardage he needed.

[BFritz21]

(02-28-2022, 03:21 PM)Whatever Wrote: They had a single high S.  

I'm not conceding this is a "run blitz" by a long shot, but it doesn't matter if it is or isn't for this discussion.

The Rams can't play this alignment with the QB under C.  Know why?

Look at it presnap.  One DT is lined up on the C's outside shoulder and the other is lined up on the RG's outside shoulder.  All the QB has to do is goose the C and stick it in the A gap for an easy 1st down.  The Rams have to check to something else with the QB under C.  


Not to mention, the Bengals can't run a reasonable facsimile of their play due to the jetsweep motion of Boyd and reverse action of CJ interfering with Burrow trying to get the handoff to Perrine.  

Taylor admits that Mixon should have been in the game.

If the Rams check to something else with Burrow under center, that means that they're weak off tackle because they'd need a guard on each side of Burrow and linebackers near the line.

Give it to Mixon, or even Perine, with a head-start and there's no way backers or linemen could have stopped him from getting a yard. He almost got it from giving them more time to crash the line and without as much speed.

[fredtoast]

(02-28-2022, 04:13 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: How would the defense be different?

Who pointed it out?  

Here

(02-28-2022, 03:21 PM)Whatever Wrote: Look at it presnap.  One DT is lined up on the C's outside shoulder and the other is lined up on the RG's outside shoulder.  All the QB has to do is goose the C and stick it in the A gap for an easy 1st down.  The Rams have to check to something else with the QB under C.  

Also points out that we could not even have ran the same play with Burrow under center

(02-28-2022, 03:21 PM)Whatever Wrote: Not to mention, the Bengals can't run a reasonable facsimile of their play due to the jetsweep motion of Boyd and reverse action of CJ interfering with Burrow trying to get the handoff to Perrine.  

So if Burrow lines up under center not only does the Rams defense changes, but we also have to change the play.

So just saying "watch the video and play pretend" does not work here.

[Whatever]

(02-28-2022, 04:23 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: Taylor admits that Mixon should have been in the game.

If the Rams check to something else with Burrow under center, that means that they're weak off tackle because they'd need a guard on each side of Burrow and linebackers near the line.

Give it to Mixon, or even Perine, with a head-start and there's no way backers or linemen could have stopped him from getting a yard. He almost got it from giving them more time to crash the line and without as much speed.

Mixon has a worse conversion rate on 3rd and short than Perrine, both under center and from shotgun.

Off tackle means the RB takes more time to get to the LoS.  The Rams likely line up the NT directly over C and have him play 2 gap.  

Again, we are now in a purely hypothetical situation.  Statistics show shotgun is more likely to generate a 1st down.  

Why not just get a RG that allows you to run your offense?  As I said earlier, this wasn't a playcall or play design issue.  With a reasonably good RG, Perrine easily picks up the 1st. 

[BFritz21]

(02-28-2022, 05:01 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Here




Also points out that we could not even have ran the same play with Burrow under center




So if Burrow lines up under center not only does the Rams defense changes, but we also have to change the play.

So just saying "watch the video and play pretend" does not work here.

That's ONE PERSON.

You said EVERYONE.

Typical you throwing out false information. 

Also, something just occurred to me: do you think the Rams coaches didn't look at the films and all the stats and would have known that we run the ball more successfully from the shotgun and been prepared? Maybe that's why they were crowding the line?

If anything, they don't crowd the line as much at the snap.

I say watch the video and use logic. They couldn't have played the run more than they did so the only thing shotgun did was prevent Perine from getting to the line as fast.

[BFritz21]

Taylor even said he thought they were getting a little softer so he thought they could "steal a first down."

If they're getting softer, you hammer the ball and don't try to "steal" a first down.