Hobson’s annual disappointment cap article

[WeezyBengal]

Hobson is the worst beat writer I've ever read. Both conceptually and grammatically. He can barely form a sentence and his writing style is almost incomprehensible.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(03-09-2022, 10:47 AM)Ell Prez Wrote: What would be the benefit of extending burrow earlier? Won’t bud cap hit go up significantly? He’ll definitely get 40-50M/year. Why not wait until his rookie deal is up to resign him?

The only teams not extending their rookie contract QBs early are teams not sure if they believe in those QBs. (And Lamar Jackson, who apparently doesn't want one.) 1st round starters since 2011...

Got Extension Before 5th Year:
Mahomes
Allen
Watson
Goff
Luck
Tannehill
Newton

Didn't Get Extension Before 5th Year:
Mayfield
Darnold
Trubisky
Wentz
Winston
Mariota
Bortles
Bridgewater
Manuel
Griffin
Ponder

[*ochocincos*]

(03-09-2022, 11:12 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: Hobson is the worst beat writer I've ever read. Both conceptually and grammatically. He can barely form a sentence and his writing style is almost incomprehensible.

You gotta give him credit though for holding on to this position for 10+ years lol.

[leonardfan40]

That’s an absolute joke. We don’t need to hold much at all for our draft picks this year and there is no need to continually roll money forward. This is our best chance to go all in and try for a super bowl this year. We can do it without mortgaging the future too. Don’t need to restructure any contracts. Just cut Waynes and maybe Hopkins if we can get a C upgrade, then actually SPEND the cap we have. That’s it, do that and we should be going into next season much improved (much improved as super bowl runners up).

[TecmoBengals]

(03-09-2022, 11:35 AM)leonardfan40 Wrote: That’s an absolute joke. We don’t need to hold much at all for our draft picks this year and there is no need to continually roll money forward. This is our best chance to go all in and try for a super bowl this year. We can do it without mortgaging the future too. Don’t need to restructure any contracts. Just cut Waynes and maybe Hopkins if we can get a C upgrade, then actually SPEND the cap we have. That’s it, do that and we should be going into next season much improved (much improved as super bowl runners up).

Is the idea about rolling money forward unrelated to football? Perhaps it's about the Brown family working to secure their personal income more than saving for future deals? 

I'm only speculating because Hobson's articles, as we know, typically come off as organizational speak to temper fan's expectations for personnel moves related to money. 

[THE PISTONS]

(03-09-2022, 01:19 AM)Soonerpeace Wrote: I don’t think there is any way in the world he’s right. They may spend 20 million on outside free agents because I know from inside sources that are golden that they are going to bring in some new OL. Definitely not to what some are ridiculously hoping for on here. I’ve constantly maintained they will upgrade with a top center and mid priced guard. I think they resign Reilly to a favorable deal and Spain. I think they get an average priced guard and draft a tackle.

I don't know. Last time they were in this position, they decided to keep rolling cap space over to spend on Dalton/Green one day.

We're looking at this like if they have X Cap space, they'll spend it all. Traditionally the Bengals haven't done that. And they've consciously spent less, to retain guys in upcoming years.

Now, the cap is supposed to explode up, so maybe they'll decide not to roll it over?

[Sanforbd]

I haven't read a word of his dribble in years.

[Bengalfan4life27c]

We keep things closer to the vest inside the organization. Besides the Patriots we may be the 2nd most secretive organization in the entire league.

[THE PISTONS]

(03-09-2022, 11:52 AM)Bengalfan4life27c Wrote: We keep things closer to the vest inside the organization. Besides the Patriots we may be the 2nd most secretive organization in the entire league.

Well I mean most years, Hobson was right. We didn't target quality external free agents. But, the past 2 years we have. So hopefully it continues.

But, for about the past 5 offseasons, we've all been saying that the Bengals will fix the offensive line in the offseason. And they haven't. After Burrow had his knee shredded as a rookie, we said it...and the Bengals made moves and the line was still bad. It's just not an easy unit to upgrade.

[TecmoBengals]

(03-09-2022, 11:52 AM)Bengalfan4life27c Wrote: We keep things closer to the vest inside the organization. Besides the Patriots we may be the 2nd most secretive organization in the entire league.

and I'm okay with this approach as long as Taylor keeps getting the benefit of signing free agents. He and Duke have had a good run signing players like Reader and Hendrickson. 

[fredtoast]

Bengal rolled over less than $6 million last year. That is about league average.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

When Hobson publishes his annual salary cap propaganda I know it’s time to set my clock forward an hour Saturday night. And just like clockwork . . .

[*ochocincos*]

(03-09-2022, 11:42 AM)THE PISTONS Wrote: I don't know. Last time they were in this position, they decided to keep rolling cap space over to spend on Dalton/Green one day.

We're looking at this like if they have X Cap space, they'll spend it all. Traditionally the Bengals haven't done that. And they've consciously spent less, to retain guys in upcoming years.

Now, the cap is supposed to explode up, so maybe they'll decide not to roll it over?

It sounds like in Hobson's mind (which might also reflect the FO's), Bengals want to reserve ~$20+ mill in cap by the time Burrow's extension comes around. If the cap only goes up $13 mill, that won't be enough to cover. As such, they might plan to reserve some money in the year(s) leading up to that to have enough.

Personally, I think they have the wrong mindset.
What they need to do is worry about the next 2-3 years that you do have Burrow on that cheaper contract and try to go all in to get a Super Bowl win.
If cap becomes an issue at that point, restructure contracts and/or offer more guaranteed money with lower cap hits early in the contracts, like most other teams do.
Look at what GB just did with Rodgers. They just gave him a 4-year, $200 mill extension. He already counts $47 mill toward the cap this year and they are still over the cap. Not to mention they also tagged Davante Adams at $20.145 mill. They are now $49.2 mill OVER the cap. They don't care because they'll figure it out via restructures and other releases.

[*michaelsean*]

If they are expecting an explosion in the cap in the next couple years, then I sign Burrow on the earliest possible date which i believe would be at the end of next season. Otherwise his price will just go up.

[leonardfan40]

(03-09-2022, 12:17 PM)ochocincos Wrote: It sounds like in Hobson's mind (which might also reflect the FO's), Bengals want to reserve ~$20+ mill in cap by the time Burrow's extension comes around. If the cap only goes up $13 mill, that won't be enough to cover. As such, they might plan to reserve some money in the year(s) leading up to that to have enough.

Personally, I think they have the wrong mindset.
What they need to do is worry about the next 2-3 years that you do have Burrow on that cheaper contract and try to go all in to get a Super Bowl win.
If cap becomes an issue at that point, restructure contracts and/or offer more guaranteed money with lower cap hits early in the contracts, like most other teams do.
Look at what GB just did with Rodgers. They just gave him a 4-year, $200 mill extension. He already counts $47 mill toward the cap this year and they are still over the cap. Not to mention they also tagged Davante Adams at $20.145 mill. They are now $49.2 mill OVER the cap. They don't care because they'll figure it out via restructures and other releases.

Exactly, we have young stars on rookie contracts so we should field the best team possible these next few years and not go crazy worrying how we’ll keep a guy 4+ seasons from now. It’s hard to win a super bowl. You can’t pass up an opportunity like this because you’re worried about something so far off you can’t possibly know what situation we’ll be in. Burrow could get injured and never play again before it comes time to re-sign him.

We did the “try to be competitive forever” thing with Dalton and Green. It did not work. I’d much rather go all in for a SB ring now even if it means we have to blow things up 5 years from now and rebuild. You just have to keep burrow if it comes to that and you can rebuild and have another window 2-3 years later. Don’t waste his whole career because you’re afraid of being bad someday.

[THE PISTONS]

(03-09-2022, 12:17 PM)ochocincos Wrote: It sounds like in Hobson's mind (which might also reflect the FO's), Bengals want to reserve ~$20+ mill in cap by the time Burrow's extension comes around. If the cap only goes up $13 mill, that won't be enough to cover. As such, they might plan to reserve some money in the year(s) leading up to that to have enough.

Personally, I think they have the wrong mindset.
What they need to do is worry about the next 2-3 years that you do have Burrow on that cheaper contract and try to go all in to get a Super Bowl win.
If cap becomes an issue at that point, restructure contracts and/or offer more guaranteed money with lower cap hits early in the contracts, like most other teams do.
Look at what GB just did with Rodgers. They just gave him a 4-year, $200 mill extension. He already counts $47 mill toward the cap this year and they are still over the cap. Not to mention they also tagged Davante Adams at $20.145 mill. They are now $49.2 mill OVER the cap. They don't care because they'll figure it out via restructures and other releases.

Isn't Burrow eligible for an extension after this coming season? (His 3rd season.)

[*ochocincos*]

(03-09-2022, 12:41 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Isn't Burrow eligible for an extension after this coming season?

Yes, he's eligible, but that doesn't mean he has to be extended that soon.
His 5th-year option isn't until 2024 season.

[*ochocincos*]

(03-09-2022, 12:09 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: When Hobson publishes his annual salary cap propaganda I know it’s time to set my clock forward an hour Saturday night. And just like clockwork . . .

I mean, at least it's something to talk about between the time Bates got tagged and the start of FA on Monday lol.

[THE PISTONS]

(03-09-2022, 12:40 PM)leonardfan40 Wrote: Exactly, we have young stars on rookie contracts so we should field the best team possible these next few years and not go crazy worrying how we’ll keep a guy 4+ seasons from now. It’s hard to win a super bowl. You can’t pass up an opportunity like this because you’re worried about something so far off you can’t possibly know what situation we’ll be in. Burrow could get injured and never play again before it comes time to re-sign him.

We did the “try to be competitive forever” thing with Dalton and Green. It did not work. I’d much rather go all in for a SB ring now even if it means we have to blow things up 5 years from now and rebuild. You just have to keep burrow if it comes to that and you can rebuild and have another window 2-3 years later. Don’t waste his whole career because you’re afraid of being bad someday.

Exactly.

When Burrow is making $50 million a year, it's going to put a premium on our drafting and being able to get production out of rookies and young guys...as we won't be able to keep everyone.

When we started losing Jones, Sanu, Zeitler, etc...that was the beginning of the end of those Bengals teams competing.

Part of this model, will likely be getting good at getting production from low paid WR's and RB's. Teams that win the SB, generally don't have leading rushers that make more than $2 million a year. And you generally don't see 2-3 high paid WR's. With an elite QB, you can get production from lesser WR's.

Now offensive line seems to be a big thing. As does a defensive line.

[*ochocincos*]

(03-09-2022, 12:46 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Exactly.

When Burrow is making $50 million a year, it's going to put a premium on our drafting and being able to get production out of rookies and young guys...as we won't be able to keep everyone.

When we started losing Jones, Sanu, Zeitler, etc...that was the beginning of the end of those Bengals teams competing.

Part of this model, will likely be getting good at getting production from low paid WR's and RB's. Teams that win the SB, generally don't have leading rushers that make more than $2 million a year. And you generally don't see 2-3 high paid WR's. With an elite QB, you can get production from lesser WR's.

Now offensive line seems to be a big thing. As does a defensive line.

In recent years, Bengals have shown they're pretty good at drafting skill position players.
We haven't really seen them being good at drafting well on defense yet aside from maybe Logan Wilson.
They have not had success with any drafted OL aside from Jonah Williams.

Hopefully this year we see some Day 1/2 draft picks for defense to see how well they come along as rookies or sophomores.

If I'm looking into the future with a big Burrow contract on the books, I'd be looking to fill the OL with veterans along with a handful of defensive positions. I'd fully plan to have primarily rookie contracts for my skill positions aside from 1-2 key guys (like Chase/Higgins). Some defensive starters also on rookie contracts.