Hobson’s annual disappointment cap article

[casear2727]

(03-11-2022, 09:14 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: All good stuff, and appreciated (and WVU Homer).  Although I have a math brain, I have never taken the time to analyze the contracts, the cap, etc.  There are a handful of experts that I rely on for that information.  I am more of a draft and FA nerd that loves diving in to film, PFF, etc. on potential additions.

It is relieving to think that Burrow's elevated cap hit won't really hit for several years.  This is SUCH a fun time ADDING FA and considering (maybe we are and not the Bengal's Brass, but I digress) trading picks for players.  

Which, BTW, I'm hearing a 3rd rounder for La'el Collins?  Yes, please!

He would be a hell of a pickup.  Some Cowboy's insider's are saying 3rd Round could get it done but Im also hearing a draft swap:
Our 1st for Dallas 2nd or our 2nd for Dallas 3rd...  all good deals for us.   

Others include Broncos (lost a lot of draft capital in Wilson trade), Raiders, Jags and Giants... 

[fredtoast]

(03-10-2022, 05:49 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: He predicted Ogunjobi would be the 20m up front 'splash' signing.

Jake's reaction pretty much summed up my thoughts as well.

I think people are really underestimating Larry's value.  We signed him for $6.2 million when he was coming off his worst season in the last 4 years.  He has to be worth a lot more than that after the season he just had.

Another thing that makes him valuable is that he is in his prime (27 years odl), and until this year had almost zero injury issues.

if you take out the '20 season when the Browns played him out of position at NT look at where Larry ranked among DTs in these key stats.

.....................'18.......'19........'21
Tkl for loss..... 11th ... 3rd ... 3rd
Sacks............. 11th ... 8th ... 8th
QB hits........... 11th ... 5th ... 7th

[WVUHomer]

(03-11-2022, 09:14 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: All good stuff, and appreciated (and WVU Homer).  Although I have a math brain, I have never taken the time to analyze the contracts, the cap, etc.  There are a handful of experts that I rely on for that information.  I am more of a draft and FA nerd that loves diving in to film, PFF, etc. on potential additions.

It is relieving to think that Burrow's elevated cap hit won't really hit for several years.  This is SUCH a fun time ADDING FA and considering (maybe we are and not the Bengal's Brass, but I digress) trading picks for players.  

Which, BTW, I'm hearing a 3rd rounder for La'el Collins?  Yes, please!

Appreciate the shout out. I won't say I'm an expert on that stuff either by any means but I remember hearing thats how the deal was done (almost like how Mixon was extended but played out his rookie contract before the bump). And he'll yes for a PB RT for only a 3rd. Or even a swap down in the 2nd like Caesar mentioned.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(03-10-2022, 10:51 AM)casear2727 Wrote: I think this has always been the plan.

As WVUHomer suggested above we can do a Mahomes deal:

Instead of signing him to a new deal we simply extend the one he is on.

We can exercise his 5th year giving us 2 more years at his rookie rate before his big number hits.

One thing we most likely do different than KC is a much larger bonus with this extension.  KC gave PM a $500M deal with a $10M signing bonus along with another 250M guaranteed - that they have to have in cash in escrow.

We could offer Burrow $500M with a much larger signing bonus to lessen to the escrow cash requirement.

We could offer Joe 160M in guaranteed money with a 60M signing bonus which would add 12M to the cap hit for the next 5 years (2 of those he is still on his rookie base) and we would need to place only 85M into the escrow.

After this season is actually a good time for us - other than locking in the franchise QB as early as possible, our free agency requirements after this season are not onerous.

We will can exercise Jonah's 5th year to push him back another year, although that could be risky.

We may still have the Bates issue.

Bell and Pratt are the only 2 major free agents (this assumes we actually do things right this offseason)

The other possibility is extending Higgins after this season, he does not have a 5th year option, this would keep him from testing the waters and receiving WR1 pay until we extend Chase.

It is crucial we have a solid offseason right now in free agency and some hits in the draft.



 

Mahomes had roughly $63M fully guaranteed at signing with another $141M in injury guarantees.

Only the guarantees which are fully guaranteed are subject to escrow. Which would be $63M, not $250M. It is a trick to manipulate cash flow just as the salary cap can be manipulated. Remember less than a week ago when you told someone else they didn’t understand cash and escrow?

Out of curiosity, if you are Burrow, why would you take $90M less in guaranteed money?

[casear2727]

(03-14-2022, 12:00 AM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: Mahomes had roughly $63M fully guaranteed at signing with another $141M in injury guarantees.

Only the guarantees which are fully guaranteed are subject to escrow. Which would be $63M, not $250M. It is a trick to manipulate cash flow just as the salary cap can be manipulated. Remember less than a week ago when you told someone else they didn’t understand cash and escrow?

Out of curiosity, if you are Burrow, why would you take $90M less in guaranteed money?

I love that I have 3 of you trying to catch me being wrong.  It really is no great prize you know? Ive been wrong before... but... may I suggest that it would be less embarrassing to ask the context of my statement instead of rushing to prove me wrong? 

"If Mahomes is on the roster on the third day of the 2027 league year, they’ll be paying him a $49.4 million roster bonus, separate from the $55 million guarantee, which in essence locks in a $250 million windfall over the deal’s final five seasons."   Albert Breer, SI, Jul 9, 2020

You gals keep trying, I'll be here all week.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(03-14-2022, 12:17 AM)casear2727 Wrote:

I love that I have 3 of you trying to catch me being wrong.  It really is no great prize you know? Ive been wrong before... but... may I suggest that it would be less embarrassing to ask the context of my statement instead of rushing to prove me wrong? 

"If Mahomes is on the roster on the third day of the 2027 league year, they’ll be paying him a $49.4 million roster bonus, separate from the $55 million guarantee, which in essence locks in a $250 million windfall over the deal’s final five seasons."   Albert Breer, SI, Jul 9, 2020

You gals keep trying, I'll be here all week.

If he is on the roster five years from now. If. That’s not a fully guaranteed bonus which is why all that cash doesn’t need to be held in escrow.

You may want to pay more attention to the qualifiers in the future.

For the record, I’m not proving you wrong. I’m educating you. You’re welcome.

Oops, I forgot; if you’re Burrow why would you take $90M less in guaranteed money?

[casear2727]

(03-14-2022, 12:44 AM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: If he is on the roster five years from now. If. That’s not a fully guaranteed bonus which is why all that cash doesn’t need to be held in escrow.

You may want to pay more attention to the qualifiers in the future.

For the record, I’m not proving you wrong. I’m educating you. You’re welcome.

Oops, I forgot; if you’re Burrow why would you take $90M less in guaranteed money?

Your bait posts are childish.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(03-14-2022, 01:12 AM)casear2727 Wrote: Your bait posts are childish.

More complaining about name calling? Oh, wait. You’re doing the name calling. Again. All because I was nice enough to explain your understanding of cash requirements for escrow was off by 74.8%.

If you were Burrow, why would you take $90M less in guaranteed money?

And you’re calling others teenage girls and childish, yet are oblivious to the irony.

[fredtoast]

(03-14-2022, 01:12 AM)casear2727 Wrote: Your bait posts are childish.

And this post by you is proof that they work.

If you get played by a "childish" post then what does that make you?

[casear2727]

(03-14-2022, 11:21 AM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: So let's go back to your proposed contract to extend Burrow which is salary cap related. If you were Burrow, would you take $90M less in guaranteed money and if so, why?

Im going to once more try to get along... Im sure it is a mistake again, but here goes:


Not sure I love it if I am Joe, but the reasons I can see this: 

The Bengals ALWAYS do less guaranteed money.

Mahomes received a paltry 10M signing bonus, my guess was we give Joe $60M upfront (we usually go big to offset the desire for large guarantees)

Joe is a "hometown" guy, it is his team, he understands and wants other good players on the roster as well...?

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(03-14-2022, 11:28 AM)casear2727 Wrote: Im going to once more try to get along... Im sure it is a mistake again, but here goes:


Not sure I love it if I am Joe, but the reasons I can see this: 

The Bengals ALWAYS do less guaranteed money.

Mahomes received a paltry 10M signing bonus, my guess was we give Joe $60M upfront (we usually go big to offset the desire for large guarantees)

Joe is a "hometown" guy, it is his team, he understands and wants other good players on the roster as well...?

Dude, go back and read my original response to you. Then tell me what I wrote that has you so pissed off.

So your hypothesis is Burrow will give them a home town discount. That’s possible, but not probable.

Your reasoning behind this deal is cash flow. You want to avoid the $250M you claim the Chiefs needed to put into escrow for their Mahomes’ contract. But, from the information I can find, only $63M was guaranteed at signing (including his salary the first three seasons.) Not $250M.

You proposed signing Burrow to team friendly deal with a $60M signing bonus which is paid in cash at the time of signing.

Your proposed contract for Burrow only reduces the cash needed for escrow by $3M. Or it reduces the Bengals cash flow problem by 4.75%. That’s not much of a cash flow solution.

[casear2727]

(03-14-2022, 12:28 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: Dude, go back and read my original response to you. Then tell me what I wrote that has you so pissed off.

So your hypothesis is Burrow will give them a home town discount. That’s possible, but not probable.

Your reasoning behind this deal is cash flow. You want to avoid the $250M you claim the Chiefs needed to put into escrow for their Mahomes’ contract. But, from the information I can find, only $63M was guaranteed at signing (including his salary the first three seasons.) Not $250M.

You proposed  signing Burrow to team friendly deal with a $60M signing bonus which is paid in cash at the time of signing.

Your proposed contract for Burrow only reduces the cash needed for escrow by $3M. Or it reduces the Bengals cash flow problem by 4.75%. That’s not much of a cash flow solution.

Not even close, but I gave you my answer. You can come up with your opinion of how to do Burrow's deal.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(03-14-2022, 12:34 PM)casear2727 Wrote: Not even close, but I gave you my answer. You can come up with your opinion of how to do Burrow's deal.

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/amp/nfl/news/patrick-mahomes-contract-details-guaranteed-money/1gpmlnyxtkbqi1g4z5aqr21kpp

Quote: Though Mahomes' contract features $141.428 million in guarantees over 12 years, he was guaranteed only $63.082 million at signing.

That $63.082 million includes Mahomes' signing bonus, his base salary for the next three years and his 2021 and 2022 roster bonuses. Which means Mahomes' contract essentially will be a year-to-year deal starting in 2023.

Multiple reports of Mahomes' contract extension used the phrase "guarantee mechanisms," which are just fancy words to describe the timeline of when chunks of money in the deal will become fully guaranteed.

You don’t need to believe me, but show me where the breakdown of his guaranteed money is incorrect.

The guarantee mechanisms are designed to manipulate the cash flow to prevent the exact scenario you’re worried about.

$63M guaranteed at signing. That’s how much cash the Chiefs need at signing. Minus the signing bonus, that’s how much cash they need for escrow.

Explain how The Sporting News reporting is incorrect.

[casear2727]

(03-14-2022, 09:42 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: https://www.sportingnews.com/us/amp/nfl/news/patrick-mahomes-contract-details-guaranteed-money/1gpmlnyxtkbqi1g4z5aqr21kpp


You don’t need to believe me, but show me where the breakdown of his guaranteed money is incorrect.

The guarantee mechanisms are designed to manipulate the cash flow to prevent the exact scenario you’re worried about.

$63M guaranteed at signing. That’s how much cash the Chiefs need at signing. Minus the signing bonus, that’s how much cash they need for escrow.

Explain how The Sporting News reporting is incorrect.

They will have to continuously fund the escrow as his every base salary every year is guaranteed - be interesting to see how they handle those guaranteed future years...?  And then those triggers kick in - Mahomes deal is very team friendly upfront, be interesting to see how it flows.. but of course with numbers are so large the restructure possibilities are endless.

I am doing taxes on 2 corps right now and talking to people on twitter and here so I cant go into a huge escrow debate, but we will have plenty of time to discuss with Joe's extension coming up after the season.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(03-14-2022, 09:53 PM)casear2727 Wrote: They will have to continuously fund the escrow as his every base salary every year is guaranteed - be interesting to see how they handle those guaranteed future years...?  And then those triggers kick in - Mahomes deal is very team friendly upfront, be interesting to see how it flows.. but of course with numbers are so large the restructure possibilities are endless.

I am doing taxes on 2 corps right now and talking to people on twitter and here so I cant go into a huge escrow debate, but we will have plenty of time to discuss with Joe's extension coming up after the season.

Yes, they will need to fund the escrow from year to year, but not all up front.

Can we agree that the way the Chiefs structured the guarantees is to spread the guarantees over multiple years which helps control the cash flow needed for escrow to prevent a large balloon payment up front?

[casear2727]

(03-14-2022, 10:02 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: Yes, they will need to fund the escrow from year to year, but not all up front.

Can we agree that the way the Chiefs structured the guarantees is to spread the guarantees over multiple years which helps control the cash flow needed for escrow to prevent a large balloon payment up front?

Yes, but they need to put big chunks in and at certain trigger times even bigger chunks.  

Can we agree KC will restructure that think at least 3-4 times in the next 10 years?  LOL

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(03-14-2022, 10:16 PM)casear2727 Wrote: Yes, but they need to put big chunks in and at certain trigger times even bigger chunks.  

Yes, but not 98% of $250M at signing.

Quote:Can we agree KC will restructure that think at least 3-4 times in the next 10 years?  LOL

I agree they will most likely restructure at some point. How many times, I don’t know.

[*SHRacerX*]

(03-14-2022, 12:44 AM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: If he is on the roster five years from now. If. That’s not a fully guaranteed bonus which is why all that cash doesn’t need to be held in escrow.

You may want to pay more attention to the qualifiers in the future.

For the record, I’m not proving you wrong. I’m educating you. You’re welcome.

Oops, I forgot; if you’re Burrow why would you take $90M less in guaranteed money?

Cmon guys, we should be done with crap like this. I’m not going to ask the mods for the banhammer emoji, but let’s enjoy this ride and quit with the nastiness.

[*ochocincos*]

(03-15-2022, 12:50 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: Cmon guys,  we should be done with crap like this.  I’m not going to ask the mods for the banhammer emoji, but let’s enjoy this ride and quit with the nastiness.

Don't make me turn this car around, or no one is getting ice cream! 

[THE PISTONS]

Restructuring contracts isn't some magic. You just push the hit down the road.