Would you do the deal...

[Speedy Thomas]

...knowing what you know now?

It's been reported that Miami offered all three of their first round choices "and more" to move up to #1. With the benefit of hindsight, here is who the Bengals could have taken.

#5 Justin Herbert
#18 Justin Jefferson
#39 Trevon Diggs

Having JJ would open it up for us to take Sewell at 21 the following year -- assuming that we were still picking at #5. Even if we had managed a couple more wins in 2020, Slater would probably have been available.

Do you do the trade?

[thompson19osu]

I voted no. If we did that we would not have the Burrow/Chase connection, and that connection helped get us to the Super Bowl. That SB appearance and Burrow’s name will draw other names to come to Cincy. Burrow is the reason why both Reiff and Hilton signed last year.

[Rubekahn29]

No. Herbert and JJ neither have made the playoffs in 2 years. We then wouldn’t have Higgins likely and I like the Chase, Boyd, Higgins, over JJ and Boyd. I’m not really impressed with Diggs. Gets a lot of picks but I’ve seen him get burnt a lot. So no thank you.

[grampahol]

Nope. Time doesn't travel backwards except for in the movies and even then you're never given the added benefit of being able to peek forward in time whilst traveling backwards. Fix those issues and sure, but I wouldn't even care about football. I'd be far too busy taking over the world as my new play thing..

[BobJones4980]

No, so far Herbert is just numbers. No playoffs, no super bowl, Burrows a winner.

Give me Chase and Burrow over Herbert, JJ, Diggs, and Slater.

Also Diggs has a lower pff grade than Apple but he gets interceptions and plays for the Cowboys so he's "good".

[Fullrock]

We literally just went to the Super Bowl with Joe. Herbert has yet to make the playoffs. No-brainer to say no on that deal.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

Just humoring the hypothetical.... Probably. Burrow pulled ahead of Herbert in year 2, but we are talking adding an extra 1600 yard/10 TD 2nd team All-Pro receiver and an 11 INT 1st team All-Pro CB both on rookie contracts. That's pretty hard to turn down.

[Mer]

(03-09-2022, 02:16 PM)Speedy Thomas Wrote: ...knowing what you know now?

It's been reported that Miami offered all three of their first round choices "and more" to move up to #1.  With the benefit of hindsight, here is who the Bengals could have taken.

#5  Justin Herbert
#18  Justin Jefferson
#39  Trevon Diggs

Having JJ would open it up for us to take Sewell at 21 the following year -- assuming that we were still picking at #5.  Even if we had managed a couple more wins in 2020, Slater would probably have been available.

Do you do the trade?

Nope.

[Soonerpeace]

The third year for Burrow,Higgins,Chase,Boyd,and Uzomah is going to produce chemistry rarely seen in the NFL. With a much better OL likely this offense is going nuclear. The OL improvement will send this offense to dynamics rarely seen. If they get the run game going Mixon is dynamic. He’s like #2 all time at Oklahoma in TD’s per touches. I think he explodes next year.

[Speedy Thomas]

(03-09-2022, 04:57 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Just humoring the hypothetical.... Probably. Burrow pulled ahead of Herbert in year 2, but we are talking adding an extra 1600 yard/10 TD 2nd team All-Pro receiver and an 11 INT 1st team All-Pro CB both on rookie contracts. That's pretty hard to turn down.

Looks like you and I are the only people so far who would take the deal.

I love Burrow and Chase, but Herbert and Jefferson are at least comparable, and we would be adding an all-pro CB and a stud OT.  And like you said, all on rookie deals.

[BobJones4980]

(03-09-2022, 08:01 PM)Speedy Thomas Wrote: Looks like you and I are the only people so far who would take the deal.

I love Burrow and Chase, but Herbert and Jefferson are at least comparable, and we would be adding an all-pro CB and a stud OT.  And like you said, all on rookie deals.

I think that may be because you guys are more enamored with stats vs results.

Burrow and Chase not only carried this team past the playoff win drought but to the Super Bowl, do we really think Herbert and JJ come in and do the same? I for one don't, I'd say they also wouldn't have the same stats as where they currently are if they were with us.

Slater would be great.

Again for Diggs you guys are more enamored with stats, he had a year where the ball found his hands alot, I don't think thats sustainable but who knows. Outside of that he got beat quite a bit, like I said, he had a lower pff than Apple even with the 11 interceptions.

[Nicomo Cosca]

Nope. We haven’t even seen Burrow with a real offseason yet, and he’s already helped get us to a Super Bowl. Plus - the Burrow to Chase connection is just too good.

[Speedy Thomas]

(03-10-2022, 05:45 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Nope. We haven’t even seen Burrow with a real offseason yet, and he’s already helped get us to a Super Bowl. Plus - the Burrow to Chase connection is just too good.

I can't argue with any of that.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(03-09-2022, 10:11 PM)BobJones4980 Wrote: I think that may be because you guys are more enamored with stats vs results.

Burrow and Chase not only carried this team past the playoff win drought but to the Super Bowl, do we really think Herbert and JJ come in and do the same? I for one don't, I'd say they also wouldn't have the same stats as where they currently are if they were with us.

Slater would be great.

Again for Diggs you guys are more enamored with stats, he had a year where the ball found his hands alot, I don't think thats sustainable but who knows. Outside of that he got beat quite a bit, like I said, he had a lower pff than Apple even with the 11 interceptions.

Except.... 
Justin Jefferson's results are with Kirk Cousins as his QB. Are we not believing that Justin Herbert is better than Kirk Cousins?
Justin Herbert's results are with the 29th scoring defense and a HC that refuses to kick FGs due to analytics that directly lost multiple games.

Meanwhile you get to add an 11 INT All-Pro CB, AND also whomever you take in the 1st round of the 2021 draft... Sewell? Slater? Parsons? Heck, maybe even Chase or DeVonta Smith?

As for Diggs "got beat quite a bit"... does it matter? If you win more than you lose, you are a winner. He gave up 4 TDs and got 11 INTs (including 2 that were pick sixes). He allowed a 55.8 QB Rating in his coverage. 

Damien Harris was PFF's 3rd ranked RB in 2021. Derrick Henry was 17th. Are you telling me you'd want Damien Harris over Derrick Henry?

As I said, Burrow pulled ahead of Herbert in 2021, but it wasn't so far that an All-Pro CB PLUS one of Chase/Sewell/Slater/Parsons doesn't cover that gap.

[*bfine32*]

The OP is using hindsight to present "best" possible option and for me it's still a hard no.

We easily could have picked the same players the Fins did and lose out on JB for Tua, Austin Jackson, Robert Hunt.

[KillerGoose]

(03-09-2022, 02:16 PM)Speedy Thomas Wrote: ...knowing what you know now?

It's been reported that Miami offered all three of their first round choices "and more" to move up to #1.  With the benefit of hindsight, here is who the Bengals could have taken.

#5  Justin Herbert
#18  Justin Jefferson
#39  Trevon Diggs

Having JJ would open it up for us to take Sewell at 21 the following year -- assuming that we were still picking at #5.  Even if we had managed a couple more wins in 2020, Slater would probably have been available.

Do you do the trade?

This is actually a really good scenario, though I am still saying no. Burrow is better than Herbert, but the gap isn't as big as many people think. Chase is also better than OR equal to Jefferson, but not a huge gap there. Diggs is the wildcard. People talk about him getting burnt (and he does) while simultaneously dismissing OR not fully understanding the value of a player who is able to grab 10+ picks in a single season. He is credited with 11 interceptions and four TDs allowed. He, by himself, had nearly the same interception count that the entire Bengals team had during the regular season.

I also think that it is unsustainable, obviously. I stay where we are due to having a better young core with what is likely to be significant OL upgrades this coming offseason. The proposed team would be REALLY good, but I think next seasons iteration of the Bengals would hypothetically be better. This is assuming the OL upgrades come through.

I would/will have both of these hypothetical teams as strong SB contenders. 

[*bfine32*]

(03-10-2022, 12:44 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: This is actually a really good scenario, though I am still saying no. Burrow is better than Herbert, but the gap isn't as big as many people think. Chase is also better than OR equal to Jefferson, but not a huge gap there. Diggs is the wildcard. People talk about him getting burnt (and he does) while simultaneously dismissing OR not fully understanding the value of a player who is able to grab 10+ picks in a single season. He is credited with 11 interceptions and four TDs allowed. He, by himself, had nearly the same interception count that the entire Bengals team had during the regular season.

I also think that it is unsustainable, obviously. I stay where we are due to having a better young core with what is likely to be significant OL upgrades this coming offseason. The proposed team would be REALLY good, but I think next seasons iteration of the Bengals would hypothetically be better. This is assuming the OL upgrades come through.

I would/will have both of these hypothetical teams as strong SB contenders. 

If the OP would have suggested Jonathan Taylor instead of Diggs it would have made it closer for me. 

[KillerGoose]

(03-10-2022, 12:51 PM)bfine32 Wrote: If the OP would have suggested Jonathan Taylor instead of Diggs it would have made it closer for me. 

I would probably take that scenario. Taylor's production is a little too much to ignore, even as someone who isn't a big proponent of running the ball. Indy's offensive line is stout, but in this scenario, the Bengals would likely have a stout offensive line as well. Herbert, Jefferson, Taylor + Sewell/Slater as an addition to the line, and everything else remaining the same would be a killer team. 

[Speedy Thomas]

(03-10-2022, 12:37 PM)bfine32 Wrote: The OP is using hindsight to present "best" possible option and for me it's still a hard no.

We easily could have picked the same players the Fins did and lose out on JB for Tua, Austin Jackson, Robert Hunt.

That's the seductive beauty of hindsight.  I am giving us the benefit of perfect drafting.  The reality is that it's 50-50, even in the first round.  And I think that's why the Bengals turned down the offer.  Burrow was as close to a sure thing as you're going to find.  So they took the bird in the hand.  Absolutely the correct decision.

But....based on comments of Bengal coaches after the Senior Bowl, I'm pretty sure they would have taken Herbert over Tua at 5.  And I can recall Callahan at the Senior Bowl moaning over how good one particular receiver who had been  overshadowed on his college team looked and that now everyone knew (looking at you, Justin Jefferson). 

Even though I don't know how highly they valued Diggs, I believe we would have netted a haul similar to what I gave us.  Including the tackle that we are now dying to sign or draft.

Anyhow, it's fun to think about this.

   

[WVUHomer]

Even despite hindsight, you're actually looking at trading JJ for Chase AND Higgins. There's no way they would have taken 2 WRs in first two rounds, no matter the talent. Hard pass for that reason alone (JC & TH > JJ)