Will Joe Burrow get bored

[Science Friction]

(03-21-2022, 02:40 PM)PhilHos Wrote: I already am picturing Game 1 of the regular season, Burrow keeps dropping back to pass and has happy feet and keeps bouncing around a nice and clean pocket expecting pressure. Until halftime when he starts to fully trust in the new OL and throws for a record 500 yards ... IN THE 2ND HALF.

What poor team do we open with?

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(03-21-2022, 05:05 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Thanks Wyche, I didn't remember the numbers. This backs up what I do remember.

Also there are a lot of LSU fans I remember talking to at the time that had the same opinion and thought they shouldn't of 
gotten the Joe Moore award and that either Bama or Clemson were much more deserving. I truly believe this OL should be the
best Joe Burrow has ever had in front of him and is definitely the best run blocking OL that Mixon has had in front of him as a
NFL player.

Should be such a blast to watch this next season. Expecting us to make it back to the big game with these moves and our 
Defense getting better with Logan Wilson and the rest of our youth leading that side of the ball. The moves we made to the 
OL have now made it possible to really work on getting this Defense elite.

Love being able to stop the run and run the ball. 

Yeah, they were probably better than the Bengals' line the last two years, but they were obviously overrated. It also points to Joe holding the ball a little longer trying to make the big play. I'd like to see him improve on that a little, but at the same time, I don't want to neuter his aggressive style. It's what makes him Joe Brrrr. This should help immensely. I think I'd be cool with around 30-40 sacks, considering his style of play. That's a pretty big improvement. Less than that, and I think you're looking at an MVP type of year for him.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-21-2022, 05:13 PM)Wyche Wrote: Yeah, they were probably better than the Bengals' line the last two years, but they were obviously overrated. It also points to Joe holding the ball a little longer trying to make the big play. I'd like to see him improve on that a little, but at the same time, I don't want to neuter his aggressive style. It's what makes him Joe Brrrr. This should help immensely. I think I'd be cool with around 30-40 sacks, considering his style of play. That's a pretty big improvement. Less than that, and I think you're looking at an MVP type of year for him.

Agreed. Joe Brrr will get sacked more than most QB's regardless of how good the OL is. Just the way he plays. A few things
he can tighty up like getting the ball out at times quicker and throwing the ball away rather than running out of bounds behind
the LOS that ends up going for sacks on the OL. Burrow is my front runner for MVP prior to the season with the OL moves no 
question. Should be for most people without a bias for or against him.

With this OL, these weapons and another year in this system I expect monster numbers and a lot of W's.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(03-21-2022, 05:20 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Agreed. Joe Brrr will get sacked more than most QB's regardless of how good the OL is. Just the way he plays. A few things
he can tighty up like getting the ball out at times quicker and throwing the ball away rather than running out of bounds behind
the LOS that ends up going for sacks on the OL. Burrow is my front runner for MVP prior to the season with the OL moves no 
question. Should be for most people without a bias for or against him.

With this OL, these weapons and another year in this system I expect monster numbers and a lot of W's.

Yes, especially if the defense continues to ball out.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-21-2022, 05:23 PM)Wyche Wrote: Yes, especially if the defense continues to ball out.

The Defense was the main reason we made it to the Superbowl and had a chance IMO. The Defense and McPherson of course.

Imagine this team with an Offense that can actually score a lot of points.

[PCB Bengal Fan]

(03-21-2022, 04:41 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: If you follow different social media, there is an ongoing argument who are top QB in AFC.  The Herbert crowd freak if you mention Burrow as top 3 in AFC (as well as Ravens and now Browns).  It is often based on different metrics like total yards which is skewed by attempts, TDs, INT.  But the swag and intangibles that Burrow brings is immeasurable I feel.  

There is an article that breaks down how awesome and historical super bowl run by the Bengals last year.  I believe Burrow was sacked 3rd most in NFL history.  This article written by Edward Sutelan before Chiefs game.  

"According to data from Stathead, there has never been a quarterback lead the NFL in sacks in a season and reach the Super Bowl. Only four quarterbacks that led the league in sacks even reached the conference championship that season. Should Burrow beat the Chiefs on Sunday, he'll be making history.



Quarterback Team Year Sacks Conference Championship Result

Mark Brunell Jaguars 1996 50       Patriots 20, Jaguars 6

Jay Cutler        Bears 2010 52      Packers 21, Bears 14

Alex Smith 49ers 2011 44      Giants 20, 49ers 17



Jay Cutler is the only quarterback to have been sacked more than Burrow in a season and reach the conference championship, and even he endured less of a beating in the playoffs, having been sacked just five times in the divisional and championship rounds.



Overall, players that finished the season leading the league in sacks missed the playoffs 42 times, or 79 percent of the time. The team they played for has, on average, a .430 winning percentage.



The quarterbacks in NFL history sacked the most in a season that still reached the playoffs were the Jets' Ken O'Brien, who was taken down 62 times in 1985, and the Texans' Deshaun Watson, who was also sacked 62 times in 2018. O'Brien led New York to the wild card round, where they were eliminated by the Patriots 26-14. The Texans lost their wild-card round round to the Colts in a 21-7 defeat. The overall list of players to reach the playoffs after leading the league in sacks is short.



Quarterback    Team  Year Sacks Round Reached

Ken O'Brien    Jets  1985 62        Wild card

D Watson          Texans  2018 62       Wild card

R Cunningham   Eagles  1992 60      Divisional round

R Cunningham   Eagles  1988 57      Divisional round

J Cutler           Bears  2010 52    Conference championship

A Rodgers           Packers  2012 51    Divisional round

J Burrow           Bengals 2021 51    Conference championship (so far)

M Brunell           Jaguars 1996 50     Conference championship

A Rodgers           Packers 2009 50    Wild card

R Cunningham   Eagles 1990 49    Wild card

A Smith            49ers 2011 44     Conference championship



Yeah, Randall Cunningham was sacked a lot, but still managed to take Philadelphia to the playoffs quite a lot.



Of those quarterbacks, only Cunningham in both 1992 (66), Watson (65) and O'Brien (64) have been sacked more than the 62 Burrow has sustained between the regular season and postseason. Burrow's 11 playoff sacks are already tied for the eighth-most in a single postseason in NFL history, according to Stathead.



It goes without saying that allowing sacks does not help a team win. Teams take about an average of 36.9 sacks per season...



Graph here sorry cannot reproduce




Based on a regression analysis, every sack allowed after 36 would be expected to reduce a team's winning percentage by .0069. The expected winning percentage for the Bengals, who allowed 55 total sacks to Burrow and backup Brandon Allen, this season based on sacks allowed would have been .374, or roughly a 6-11 campaign. Instead, they flipped that around to 10-7.



It has been a remarkable season for Burrow and the Bengals to advance this far despite their franchise quarterback taking so many shots. On Sunday, he'll look to keep the historic run going when Cincinnati faces the Chiefs on the road in the AFC Conference Championship."


Burrow was rated #1 of all QB in PFF but his metrics do not necessarily reflect what he embodies for Bengals.  

Burrow is rated 95.6 PFF when in clean pocket.  He is a surgeon in dissecting defense alignments when given time.  He was 1.5 seconds of a block from possibly connecting with Chase for TD on the last drive.

Can't believe Brunell was in that list. Didn't he have Boselli & Searcy as tackles? I thought they had really good lines.

[Interceptor]

(03-21-2022, 02:26 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: with having all day to study the field on Sundays this fall?

He could always play with both hands tied behind his back just to make things fair.

[*psychdoctor*]

(03-21-2022, 05:41 PM)PCB Bengal Fan Wrote: Can't believe Brunell was in that list. Didn't he have Boselli & Searcy as tackles? I thought they had really good lines.

Brunell averaged about 37 sacks per with JAX.  He was with Washington as well.  1996 not sure if Boselli was still though, I know he was traded at some point so I am not sure

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(03-21-2022, 05:41 PM)PCB Bengal Fan Wrote: Can't believe Brunell was in that list. Didn't he have Boselli & Searcy as tackles? I thought they had really good lines.

They did, but Brunell was a scrambler, and was actually a pretty good runner too. I think that inflated his sack numbers a tad.

[reuben.ahmed]

Roethlisberger also got sacked a lot. He held the ball a lot AND was hard to bring down. He was built different than Joe, but Ben had a lot of 50 sacks in 15 games, 47, 46, 47 sacks in 16 game years.

Burrow is going to get hit, he's going to get sacked, he should just learn to throw the ball away on some of those sacks (or all of them) since he takes us out of FG range sometimes.

[*psychdoctor*]

The aforementioned article stated clearly the expected winning percentage for Bengals was 6 wins last year. I think even though Burrow and the Bengals won "only" 10 games could have easily been more games, especially sitting out starters against Browns.

It just shows how much Burrow brings to the Bengals. You put Herbert behind the Bengals OL his numbers would be worse. Burrow is God-like with intangibles and elevating others around him.

As Reuben stated above, Burrow will still get pressured and sacked because that is who he is. But you give Burrow a clean pocket, Bengals will be scary.

[TecmoBengals]

People might start accusing Joe of not playing hard since his uniform won't be getting dirty.

[reuben.ahmed]

(03-21-2022, 05:51 PM)TecmoBengals Wrote: People might start accusing Joe of not playing hard since his uniform won't be getting dirty.

Well, we have to find something to complain about in the 30/35 5 TD and 0 INT outings. Why 5 misses? Were they drops? They could have been game ending picks, we have to be careful! Doesn't he want to win the superbowl?

[jwalker3853]

(03-21-2022, 02:51 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: He will still have to deal with pressure but it won't be anything like his first few years here.

This O-line could be elite though, especially at run blocking. Collins is a top 5 RT, Cappa is a top 10 Guard and Karras could be a
top half of the league Center. Carman and Jonah could grow into top players at their position for all we know. Jonah shown flashes 
last year same as Carman. We have went from backup quality at best at 3 positions to quality starters that are young with upside.

I agree, he will still have pressure BUT......

The improved OLine should significantly reduce the amount of pressure Joe faces game in / game out and - if the running game improves as much as we hope it does - then it will also help reduce the amount of pressure as folks will have to respect our running game and won't be able to just pin their ears back as much.    By my estimation, the pressure should be drastically reduced, defenses will have to respect our running game - which will further open up our passing game.    

It's hard not to get too excited - even if this isn't an "elite" unit - because this is - on paper - a significantly better OLine than has been fielded the last several years.   It all looks really good on paper.   Let's hope everyone can stay healthy and it gels the way we hope it will.    

[fredtoast]

(03-21-2022, 05:41 PM)PCB Bengal Fan Wrote: Can't believe Brunell was in that list. Didn't he have Boselli & Searcy as tackles? I thought they had really good lines.

That list is not accurate.  Russel Wilson made the playoffs in 2019 when he led the league in sacks.  The year before that he made the playoffs with the same number of sacks Burrow had last year (51).

in the 8 year span from 2013 through 2020 Russ averaged 45.1 regular season sacks and another 5.2 in postseason games.  Despite that he never missed a single game; averaged 11 regular season wins; posted a 100+ passer rating; and won 8 postseason games (including a Super Bowl).  He was sacked 5 times in his first playoff victory and a total of 9 times in his two Conference Championship victories.

As long as we have Chase and Burrow I can live with a few extra sacks.  The extra big plays they make will be well worth it.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-21-2022, 06:03 PM)jwalker3853 Wrote: I agree, he will still have pressure BUT......

The improved OLine should significantly reduce the amount of pressure Joe faces game in / game out and - if the running game improves as much as we hope it does - then it will also help reduce the amount of pressure as folks will have to respect our running game and won't be able to just pin their ears back as much.    By my estimation, the pressure should be drastically reduced, defenses will have to respect our running game - which will further open up our passing game.    

It's hard not to get too excited - even if this isn't an "elite" unit - because this is - on paper - a significantly better OLine than has been fielded the last several years.   It all looks really good on paper.   Let's hope everyone can stay healthy and it gels the way we hope it will.    

Great post Jwalker. That was the problem, teams would stop our running game and just pin their ears back and hit Burrow 
as often as they could. We still were able to overcome this somehow with Burrow's abilities but now it won't be so easy to 
stop our run game with good to great blockers. Burrow will be able to do more of what he wants and it will take the pressure
off of him big time with a good run game. Take what the Defense gives you.

Won't have to all be on Burrow's shoulders to bring us back. We should be up much more often when we are controlling the 
LOS on both sides of the ball.

[Ell Prez]

(03-21-2022, 02:29 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Lol, sure won't be what he has been used to here. Nah, he now can have fun and not be so frustrated.

He knows what he can do, this allows him to really be the best which is what he is working to become.

Every QB in the league faces pressure. His sacks will definitely cut down dramatically, but he’s still going to be sacked, rushed, and harassed. Just at a lesser extent.

[Gdale_Bengal]

His body will thank him and his woman. Frequently.

[thompson19osu]

(03-21-2022, 02:46 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Let's not get carried away. The O-line has improved, but it is far from elite. We don't have a single Pro Bowl player.

I am thrilled with the new crew, but they aren't an "elite" unit. Burrow will still have to deal with pressure.

Pro Bowl or All Pro? Pro Bowl means squat but if healthy full season I can see Collins being voted.

[007BengalsFan]

(03-21-2022, 02:46 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Let's not get carried away.  The O-line has improved, but it is far from elite.  We don't have a single Pro Bowl player.

I am thrilled with the new crew, but they aren't an "elite" unit.  Burrow will still have to deal with pressure.

100% agree.  This line is much better than last year but they are not elite.  Im still not sold on Karras at center because he played much better at guard.  The right side is much improved, the left side will probably be about the same.  It depends on what kind of jump Carman can make in his 2nd year.