Pick 31 History

[*bfine32*]

It's been way too long since we picked this far back in the draft. We've grown accustomed to looking at top tier prospects, so I thought it's be interesting to see who was selected at 31 over the last 10 years:

2012: Doug Martin
2013: Travis Fredrick
2014: Bradley Roby
2015: Stephone Anthony
2016: Germaine Ifedi
2017: Rueban Foster
2018: Sony Micheal
2019: Kaleb McGary
2020: Jeff Gladney
2021: Odafe Oweh

Really only 1 on-field "bust" (Stephone Anthony) and a couple with off-field issues (Gladney/Foster).

A couple really good IOL and there should be 1-2 prospects available when we pick at 31.

Don't take a LB as 1 busted on-field and one busted off-field

Running back has fared pretty well and I don't think it's too early to look at a Mixon helper/replacement

[TecmoBengals]

(04-01-2022, 12:48 PM)bfine32 Wrote: It's been way too long since we picked this far back in the draft. We've grown accustomed to looking at top tier prospects, so I thought it's be interesting to see who was selected at 31 over the last 10 years:

2012: Doug Martin
2013: Travis Fredrick
2014: Bradley Roby
2015: Stephone Anthony
2016: Germaine Ifedi
2017: Rueban Foster
2018: Sony Micheal
2019: Kaleb McGary
2020: Jeff Gladney
2021: Odafe Oweh

Really only 1 on-field "bust" (Stephone Anthony) and a couple with off-field issues (Gladney/Foster).

A couple really good IOL and there should be 1-2 prospects available when we pick at 31.

Don't take a LB as 1 busted on-field and one busted off-field

Running back has fared pretty well and I don't think it's too early to look at a Mixon helper/replacement

Breece Hall would be a nice pick at 31. In the good ole days when RBs were valued more, I bet he's a top 10 pick.

[samhain]

Speaking of linebacker, I wouldn't get mad if Nakobe Dean fell to us. Also wouldn't hate Kenneth Walker, as I believe Mixon will be gone once the team starts handing out the big money to Joey B and the receivers.

[TecmoBengals]

(04-01-2022, 02:16 PM)samhain Wrote: Speaking of linebacker, I wouldn't get mad if Nakobe Dean fell to us.  Also wouldn't hate Kenneth Walker, as I believe Mixon will be gone once the team starts handing out the big money to Joey B and the receivers.

Dean in round 1 and Walker in round 3. Look no further than my mock draft: http://thebengalsboard.com/Thread-Tecmo-Not-so-Super-Mock-Draft-1-0

Mind you, I'm a humble nobody. 

[Speedy Thomas]

Travis Frederick, please. Thank you.

[jfkbengals]

(04-01-2022, 12:48 PM)bfine32 Wrote: It's been way too long since we picked this far back in the draft. We've grown accustomed to looking at top tier prospects, so I thought it's be interesting to see who was selected at 31 over the last 10 years:

2012: Doug Martin
2013: Travis Fredrick
2014: Bradley Roby
2015: Stephone Anthony
2016: Germaine Ifedi
2017: Rueban Foster
2018: Sony Micheal
2019: Kaleb McGary
2020: Jeff Gladney
2021: Odafe Oweh

Really only 1 on-field "bust" (Stephone Anthony) and a couple with off-field issues (Gladney/Foster).

A couple really good IOL and there should be 1-2 prospects available when we pick at 31.

Don't take a LB as 1 busted on-field and one busted off-field

Running back has fared pretty well and I don't think it's too early to look at a Mixon helper/replacement

While compiling this list, were you able to see if the teams that picked these men held the original pick?

I've heard in the past from former FO guys that the average draft only has about 18 guys with a first round grade on them, so as a general rule of thumb you are selecting from second round talent to fill out the back end of the first round.  This is why guys like Belicheck are so willing to trade out of the back end for an additional second or third rounder with a team who is willing to come in to the first round to have a shot at putting the 5th year option on a guy they like.  So I'd be curious to know how many times that happened over the last 10 years.

[*bfine32*]

(04-03-2022, 10:35 AM)jfkbengals Wrote: While compiling this list, were you able to see if the teams that picked these men held the original pick?

I've heard in the past from former FO guys that the average draft only has about 18 guys with a first round grade on them, so as a general rule of thumb you are selecting from second round talent to fill out the back end of the first round.  This is why guys like Belicheck are so willing to trade out of the back end for an additional second or third rounder with a team who is willing to come in to the first round to have a shot at putting the 5th year option on a guy they like.  So I'd be curious to know how many times that happened over the last 10 years.

2012: NE traded up to 25 (Denver) the Denver traded down to 36 (Tampa Bay). NE (the original 31) got the best of the deal (Dont'a Hightower)

2013: SF traded up to 18 (Dallas) SF got Eric Reid, Dallas got Fredrickson/Terrence Williams

2014: No Trade

2015: Seattle trade pick and Max Unger to NO for Jimmy Graham and pick 112. Seattle traded back up to 69 (Wash) and got Tyler Lockett.

2016: Denver trade up to 26 (Seattle). Denver select Paxton Lynch. Seattle get Ifemi and a nobody

2017: Atlanta trade up to 26 (Seattle) and take Tac McKinley. Seattle then trade 31 to San Fran for 34, 111. They then trade pick 34 to Jags for 35 and 187. Seattle gets a bunch of nothing

2018: No Trade

2019: Rams trade 31 and 203 to ATL for 45 and 70. Rams then trade 45 to NE for 56 and 101, Rams trade down again 56 to KC for 61 167. Rams then trade 101 and 133 to NE for 97 and 162. Then they trade 162, and 167
Cliffnotes: Rams trade 31 for 61, 70, 101 (up to 97), 162, 167 and get a bunch of nothing. 

2020: SF trade 31, 117, 176 to Minn for 25. SF get Brandon Aiyuk and MIN get Gladney, DL Wonnum, and KJ Osborne.

2021: KC trade 31, 94, 136 to Balt. for 58, 2022 6th RD, Orlando Brown. With 58 KC gets Nick Bolton

[jfkbengals]

(04-03-2022, 01:46 PM)bfine32 Wrote: 2012: NE traded up to 25 (Denver) the Denver traded down to 36 (Tampa Bay). NE (the original 31) got the best of the deal (Dont'a Hightower)

2013: SF traded up to 18 (Dallas) SF got Eric Reid, Dallas got Fredrickson/Terrence Williams

2014: No Trade

2015: Seattle trade pick and Max Unger to NO for Jimmy Graham and pick 112. Seattle traded back up to 69 (Wash) and got Tyler Lockett.

2016: Denver trade up to 26 (Seattle). Denver select Paxton Lynch. Seattle get Ifemi and a nobody

2017: Atlanta trade up to 26 (Seattle) and take Tac McKinley. Seattle then trade 31 to San Fran for 34, 111. They then trade pick 34 to Jags for 35 and 187. Seattle gets a bunch of nothing

2018: No Trade

2019: Rams trade 31 and 203 to ATL for 45 and 70. Rams then trade 45 to NE for 56 and 101, Rams trade down again 56 to KC for 61 167. Rams then trade 101 and 133 to NE for 97 and 162. Then they trade 162, and 167
Cliffnotes: Rams trade 31 for 61, 70, 101 (up to 97), 162, 167 and get a bunch of nothing. 

2020: SF trade 31, 117, 176 to Minn for 25. SF get Brandon Aiyuk and MIN get Gladney, DL Wonnum, and KJ Osborne.

2021: KC trade 31, 94, 136 to Balt. for 58, 2022 6th RD, Orlando Brown. With 58 KC gets Nick Bolton

Damn, there are more intertwining things there than the connections between victim and suspects in  a whodunit story!

Sounds like the moral of this story is the guy who originally holds 31 rarely makes the pick.

[*bfine32*]

(04-03-2022, 04:05 PM)jfkbengals Wrote: Damn, there are more intertwining things there than the connections between victim and suspects in  a whodunit story!

Sounds like the moral of this story is the guy who originally holds 31 rarely makes the pick.

As I was doing it; a couple things I noticed:

Seattle really likes to move around.

If you move back, do it once. Seems that teams that kept moving back wound up with a bunch of nothing

Trade Up target range is mid 20's and it'll cost you a 3rd. 

[fredtoast]

(04-03-2022, 04:14 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Trade Up target range is mid 20's and it'll cost you a 3rd. 

I don't think it is worth it.  The draft is just too random.  Every year there are first round picks that bust and guys drafted in later rounds that ever team misses on.  I can see trading up into the top 10 for an elite prospect, but after that it gets more hit-and-miss.

The best way to increase your chances of getting a good player is to have more picks.  Again, I don't mean trade your first round pick for twenty 6th and 7 round picks, But I don't think it is worth giving up an entire pick just to improve your chances slightly on another pick.

If I were a GM I would generally like to trade back, but only to get 2nd and third round picks.  And there are not usually of lot of potions like that unless you have a top 10 pick.

[fredtoast]

(04-03-2022, 04:14 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Trade Up target range is mid 20's and it'll cost you a 3rd. 

If we trade back our #31 would be worth a middle of the 2nd plus a middle of the 3rd.  But it doesn't seem like any of the teams with a midle of the second pick also have a middle of the third. 

The math is close for our #31 to the Eagles for their 2nd (51), 3rd (83), and 4th (124). 

But It all depends on what player is available at 31.  It might be some guy we had rated much higher.