Is Jackson Carman "Your" Starting LG

[*ochocincos*]

(04-07-2022, 04:02 PM)CloeHokie Wrote: Yeah, I am not optimistic. And again if he can beat Green/Zion out in camp etc great! We have an extra great OL to fill in. He ranked 67 out of qualifying Guards. 32 times 2 is 64. That means he somehow graded out worse than everyone including 3 back up players.

I do not want to speculate about the O line. But rather get the best guys and let them compete for the best starter. I do not mind speculating about the 4th CB

Again - This comes down to who is there at 31.

The top DT will not be there. Neither will the top CBs from every Mock Draft I have done in the last week. And its a LOT of them. Maybe once out of 20 times a CB falls. Never seen one of the DTs fall. So if they are not there and Green/Zion are it is a no brainer to me. I do not want to reach or take a DT that doesnt even fit what we need just cause we need a DT. We need a 3 tech not a nose tackle

I guess my mentality has always been that I want and expect someone I take in Rd 1 to be a starter within a year.
I look to take someone in Rd 2 who I expect to be a starter within 2 years.
I'm not spending a 1st round pick on a guard and then potentially have Carman or the newly-drafted 1st rounder ride the bench as a backup.


I'd instead rather put that 1st rounder toward a position with a starter who is set to become a FA next year or at least an opportunity to be part of a heavy rotation.
DL always rotates, thus resulting in immediate contributions early in career.
CB will have Apple hitting FA after this season, plus he's not really even great.
Safety has two really good starters in place, but both are set to hit FA next year. I'd like to keep both of them though beyond this year (at the right cost). There's only two safeties I feel comfortable taking at 31 though, and that's Hamilton (no chance he falls outside Top 10) and Hill.
Brisker doesn't really seem like the ideal Bates replacement unless they change up how they use the FS. Cine, while he has speed, didn't look to be much of a pass defender in college. He can hit hard though. I don't see Pitre as a Bates replacement either. Maybe one of those guys can replace Bell, but Bell shouldn't command nearly what Bates will in FA.

EDIT - Let me be clear regarding LG. I'm ok with a stopgap cheaper veteran to potentially start and Carman ride the bench, but just for this year. But I'd want him to start next year, otherwise he wasn't worth the pick. I don't want him becoming another Sample, where he's a backup going deep into his rookie contract. That's what mid-round picks are for.
I get though that the goal is to have the best OL possible. I just hate seeing potentially wasted early draft pick selections.

[CloeHokie]

(04-07-2022, 04:12 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I guess my mentality has always been that I want and expect someone I take in Rd 1 to be a starter within a year.
I look to take someone in Rd 2 who I expect to be a starter within 2 years.
I'm not spending a 1st round pick on a guard and then potentially have Carman or the newly-drafted 1st rounder ride the bench as a backup.


I'd instead rather put that 1st rounder toward a position with a starter who is set to become a FA next year or at least an opportunity to be part of a heavy rotation.
DL always rotates, thus resulting in immediate contributions early in career.
CB will have Apple hitting FA after this season, plus he's not really even great.
Safety has two really good starters in place, but both are set to hit FA next year. I'd like to keep both of them though beyond this year (at the right cost). There's only two safeties I feel comfortable taking at 31 though, and that's Hamilton (no chance he falls outside Top 10) and Hill.
Brisker doesn't really seem like the ideal Bates replacement unless they change up how they use the FS. Cine, while he has speed, didn't look to be much of a pass defender in college. He can hit hard though. I don't see Pitre as a Bates replacement either. Maybe one of those guys can replace Bell, but Bell shouldn't command nearly what Bates will in FA.

I hear you but if he is a bust he is a bust. Waiting around to watch it won't help us win. Get more talent. Let them compete. When you make a mistake its better to move on. If Carman can turn it around then great! We have more depth and guys that can move around and play for injuries. I think Green/Zion are better and would start over Carman. If that involves hurting someone's draft pride or ego I don't care. 


Taking a CB at 31 will not make him a starter. Especially considering who will be there. 

We do not need a rotational Nose Tackle. The top 2 DTs will not be there at 31.

Pitre is a nickel corner at best and a hybrid CB. We have that already. Get that guy off your draft board. Mike Hilton is already a better version of this guy

I agree on S for sure. But again not sure the talent will match the pick at 31. Yeah no way Hamilton falls. He is going top 10 for sure. But there are Safties in the later rounds that can grow and develop. I like Joeseph in round 2 or a couple other guys in rounds 3-5.

I definitely agree on all of your points. But my main point is that those positions you mention just do not line up with our pick at 31. Who knows how it will pan out though. Maybe a top DT or CB falls. Anything can happen. All I am saying is that the drafts I am doing none of those CBs are there and the DTs are gone aside from a NT. We would have to reach into round 2 to get a CB. And almost evey time I do the mock draft Green or Zion is there. If a top CB is there I would have a harder time picking. And would not mind either one. I just do not want to reach for a 2nd-3rd round CB or a DT that is not a 3 tech. Our rotation player we lost is still a FA! (We could sign him again) And he was a 3 tech not a NT. We do need one of those but I just cant take the 64th ranked player at 31 when there are better ranked players at LG and we have a good chance of having a need there 

[CloeHokie]

(04-07-2022, 04:12 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I guess my mentality has always been that I want and expect someone I take in Rd 1 to be a starter within a year.
I look to take someone in Rd 2 who I expect to be a starter within 2 years.
I'm not spending a 1st round pick on a guard and then potentially have Carman or the newly-drafted 1st rounder ride the bench as a backup.


I'd instead rather put that 1st rounder toward a position with a starter who is set to become a FA next year or at least an opportunity to be part of a heavy rotation.
DL always rotates, thus resulting in immediate contributions early in career.
CB will have Apple hitting FA after this season, plus he's not really even great.
Safety has two really good starters in place, but both are set to hit FA next year. I'd like to keep both of them though beyond this year (at the right cost). There's only two safeties I feel comfortable taking at 31 though, and that's Hamilton (no chance he falls outside Top 10) and Hill.
Brisker doesn't really seem like the ideal Bates replacement unless they change up how they use the FS. Cine, while he has speed, didn't look to be much of a pass defender in college. He can hit hard though. I don't see Pitre as a Bates replacement either. Maybe one of those guys can replace Bell, but Bell shouldn't command nearly what Bates will in FA.

EDIT - Let me be clear regarding LG. I'm ok with a stopgap cheaper veteran to potentially start and Carman ride the bench, but just for this year. But I'd want him to start next year, otherwise he wasn't worth the pick. I don't want him becoming another Sample, where he's a backup going deep into his rookie contract. That's what mid-round picks are for.
I get though that the goal is to have the best OL possible. I just hate seeing potentially wasted early draft pick selections.

Again I hear you. But everyone makes mistakes. Sure he could improve but I am not willing to bet my franchise on that. (Joe Burrow)

Knowing when to correct your mistake takes a lot of humility. 

[CloeHokie]

(04-07-2022, 04:12 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I guess my mentality has always been that I want and expect someone I take in Rd 1 to be a starter within a year.
I look to take someone in Rd 2 who I expect to be a starter within 2 years.
I'm not spending a 1st round pick on a guard and then potentially have Carman or the newly-drafted 1st rounder ride the bench as a backup.


I'd instead rather put that 1st rounder toward a position with a starter who is set to become a FA next year or at least an opportunity to be part of a heavy rotation.
DL always rotates, thus resulting in immediate contributions early in career.
CB will have Apple hitting FA after this season, plus he's not really even great.
Safety has two really good starters in place, but both are set to hit FA next year. I'd like to keep both of them though beyond this year (at the right cost). There's only two safeties I feel comfortable taking at 31 though, and that's Hamilton (no chance he falls outside Top 10) and Hill.
Brisker doesn't really seem like the ideal Bates replacement unless they change up how they use the FS. Cine, while he has speed, didn't look to be much of a pass defender in college. He can hit hard though. I don't see Pitre as a Bates replacement either. Maybe one of those guys can replace Bell, but Bell shouldn't command nearly what Bates will in FA.

EDIT - Let me be clear regarding LG. I'm ok with a stopgap cheaper veteran to potentially start and Carman ride the bench, but just for this year. But I'd want him to start next year, otherwise he wasn't worth the pick. I don't want him becoming another Sample, where he's a backup going deep into his rookie contract. That's what mid-round picks are for.
I get though that the goal is to have the best OL possible. I just hate seeing potentially wasted early draft pick selections.

Same. I am speaking as if we bring in no one else. Would be totally fine if we bring in someone else to push Carman for the job via FA. 

[fredtoast]

(04-07-2022, 03:47 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: Blah blah blah

Blind optimism. It’s a minuscule sample size. You’re deluding yourself if you think his 15 or so snaps all season at LG means anything significant

So suggesting a rookie will make significant improvement his second year is "blind optimism"?

Shows how much you understand about how the NFL works.

[Frank Booth]

(04-07-2022, 04:38 PM)fredtoast Wrote: So suggesting a rookie will make significant improvement his second year is "blind optimism"?

Shows how much you understand about how the NFL works.

Carman was so bad that improving would mean he would still be bad.

He has to improve greatly. Drastically.

I just want Carman to compete with Spain. That would be ideal

[Mike M (the other one)]

(04-07-2022, 04:06 PM)CloeHokie Wrote: https://www.pff.com/draft/nfl-mock-draft-simulator?ref=90f9aafa-b0d7-4c5e-ad5f-30a969b013f2

Try doing some mocks. See what CB/DT are there at 31

Very rarely will one of the top CBs fall to 31. And I have yet to see one of the 2 DTs fall there

Sometimes all the CBS/DT/Green and Zion are all gone. At that point I look at the board and want to trade back.

Check out Travis Jones. 

[CloeHokie]

(04-07-2022, 04:45 PM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: Check out Travis Jones. 

Love Travis Jones. We can get him in round 3. He can also return. More of a slot guy but that is fine given his return abilities

Oops. Was thinking of Marcus Jones.

Travis Jones is a DT but he is a Nose Tackle! - We do not need a rotational nose tackle

[fredtoast]

(04-07-2022, 04:31 PM)CloeHokie Wrote: Knowing when to correct your mistake takes a lot of humility. 

Judging a player based just on his rookie season takes a lot of stupidity.

Want to see a list if dozens of very good NFL players who stunk as rookies?

I am not guaranteeing Carman will develop into a good starter.  I am guaranteeing it is too early to write him off.

[Frank Booth]

(04-07-2022, 04:51 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Judging a player based just on his rookie season takes a lot of stupidity.

Lmao what else are people supposed to base his play off of? He’s only played 1 year in the NFL

I guess I’m a full blown reetard for looking at his garbage rookie year, which included chronic back issues

durrrr

[CloeHokie]

(04-07-2022, 04:51 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Judging a player based just on his rookie season takes a lot of stupidity.

Want to see a list if dozens of very good NFL players who stunk as rookies?

I am not guaranteeing Carman will develop into a good starter.  I am guaranteeing it is too early to write him off.

Stupidity? How many 2nd round picks make it at all? Handing the starting job just cause he was drafted in any round is not wise. 

I am not saying we should cut him. But he played very poorly. And is a weak link at the moment on our line.  I am not writing him off either! He can compete! 

[The D.O.Z.]

I’m in the make him earn it camp. Draft a guy and let them battle it out. I just don’t want him given the job. Remember when Boling abruptly retired and they were sorta forced into giving the job to Michael Jordan? I want to avoid that scenario. With his back issues, can he hold up for 17+ games? He hasn’t shown that, yet. Need dependability, or we’ll be looking for his back up off the PS or the street, again another scenario I’d rather not deal with!

[*ochocincos*]

(04-07-2022, 04:45 PM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: Check out Travis Jones. 

Am I the only one that doesn't really see a true pass rushing IDL in him?
I see him far more like DJ Reader, who is much more of a NT.

[*ochocincos*]

(04-07-2022, 04:31 PM)CloeHokie Wrote: Again I hear you. But everyone makes mistakes. Sure he could improve but I am not willing to bet my franchise on that. (Joe Burrow)

Knowing when to correct your mistake takes a lot of humility. 

I don't think it's fair to say Carman was a mistake yet though.
He's had just one season of playing and has been injured for part of it.
Feels too early to give up on him for another draft pick.

[Joelist]

I would suggest people look at more solid stats than PFF synthetic ratings. They are notorious for giving ratings especially for OL that do not line up at all with reality. Carman flashed plenty when in - it was when we had Adeniji at RG that the line started to implode. And when Reiff got hurt things turned pear shaped with the right side of Prince and Adeniji.

With that said Carman has shown work ethic problems too and needs to learn better balance. I'm fine with us resigning Spain so that we are not relying on Carman right out of the gate.

[*ochocincos*]

(04-07-2022, 04:28 PM)CloeHokie Wrote: I hear you but if he is a bust he is a bust. Waiting around to watch it won't help us win. Get more talent. Let them compete. When you make a mistake its better to move on. If Carman can turn it around then great! We have more depth and guys that can move around and play for injuries. I think Green/Zion are better and would start over Carman. If that involves hurting someone's draft pride or ego I don't care. 


Taking a CB at 31 will not make him a starter. Especially considering who will be there. 

We do not need a rotational Nose Tackle. The top 2 DTs will not be there at 31.

Pitre is a nickel corner at best and a hybrid CB. We have that already. Get that guy off your draft board. Mike Hilton is already a better version of this guy

I agree on S for sure. But again not sure the talent will match the pick at 31. Yeah no way Hamilton falls. He is going top 10 for sure. But there are Safties in the later rounds that can grow and develop. I like Joeseph in round 2 or a couple other guys in rounds 3-5.

I definitely agree on all of your points. But my main point is that those positions you mention just do not line up with our pick at 31. Who knows how it will pan out though. Maybe a top DT or CB falls. Anything can happen. All I am saying is that the drafts I am doing none of those CBs are there and the DTs are gone aside from a NT. We would have to reach into round 2 to get a CB. And almost evey time I do the mock draft Green or Zion is there. If a top CB is there I would have a harder time picking. And would not mind either one. I just do not want to reach for a 2nd-3rd round CB or a DT that is not a 3 tech. Our rotation player we lost is still a FA! (We could sign him again) And he was a 3 tech not a NT. We do need one of those but I just cant take the 64th ranked player at 31 when there are better ranked players at LG and we have a good chance of having a need there 

The players I'm looking at for pick 31, personally:
- Perrion Winfrey, DT
- Kaiir Elam, CB
- Trent McDuffie, CB
- Roger McCreary, CB

Players I'd be excited about if they fell to Bengals, but I'm not expecting to be there:
- Dax Hill, S
- Zion Johnson, OL
- Kenyon Green, OG
- Tyler Linderbaum, C
- Charles Cross, OT
- Trevor Penning, OT

[*ochocincos*]

(04-07-2022, 07:35 PM)Joelist Wrote: I would suggest people look at more solid stats that PFF synthetic ratings. They are notorious for giving ratings especially for OL that do not line up at all with reality. Carman flashed plenty when in - it was when we had Adeniji at RG that the line started to implode. And when Reiff got hurt things turned pear shaped with the right side of Prince and Adeniji.

With that said Carman has shown work ethic problems too and needs to learn better balance. I'm fine with us resigning Spain so that we are not relying on Carman right out of the gate.

Actually, PFF supports this...

Regular season:
Carman (462 snaps) - 56.3 overall, 53.0 pass block, 62.4 run block
Adeniji (555 snaps) - 48.3 overall, 48.9 pass block, 47.7 run block

Postseason:
Carman (39 snaps) - 44.9 overall, 4.2 pass block, 69.9 run block
Adeniji (222 snaps) - 37.6 overall, 19.9 pass block, 48.9 run block

So even according to PFF, Adeniji was worse than Carman.
Coaches just felt Adeniji was better/more consistent, so he got more playing time.

[Mike M (the other one)]

(04-07-2022, 06:25 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Am I the only one that doesn't really see a true pass rushing IDL in him?
I see him far more like DJ Reader, who is much more of a NT.

I see a guy that can eat double teams and hold his own and make the RB go around or if single teamed, he's gonna push that pocket. What more do you need from an IDL?

Who do you see in the draft as a true pass rushing IDL? 

[*ochocincos*]

(04-07-2022, 08:50 PM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: I see a guy that can eat double teams and hold his own and make the RB go around or if single teamed, he's gonna push that pocket. What more do you need from an IDL?

Who do you see in the draft as a true pass rushing IDL? 

What you described is what I see from Reader. And pushing the pocket helps, but it's not sacks.
I want a guy who better gets to the QB.
Someone who is more agile, quick, and has more moves to turn that pocket push into a sack.

Some guys I like in this draft class who I see more as a pass rushing IDL - Perrion Winfrey, Matthew Butler, Phidarian Mathis (although I think his sack #s were inflated by some coverage sacks). I like Thomas Booker and Zachary Carter too, but they're more of a versatile DL pass rushing threat who could be rotated across many spots.
I also can see someone like Logan Hall or Josh Paschal that could be a base 4-3 DE but swing inside on passing downs next to Hill.

[*rfaulk34*]

(04-07-2022, 03:40 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Carman was actually decent when he played some snaps at LG. And he was still better than Adeniji at RG too.
Not someone you can be confident will be solid-or-better starter though, for sure.

Also, you bring up 56.4 PFF grade being "garbage." That's not considered garbage nowadays. Or at least when comparing to the rest of the league.
Only 52 OGs had a 60+ grade. That means below 60 is still considered starter-level.

Last, let's break down the PFF grades Carman had at LG vs RG:
LG (103 snaps) - 74.2 run block, 64.3 pass block, 2 pressures, 2 penalties
RG (377 snaps) - 59.7 run block, 40.2 pass block, 17 pressures, 4 penalties, 5 QB hits

Yes, only 103 snaps at LG, so you can speculate that with more snaps he'd trend downward closer to what he did at RG, but the PFF data does indicate he'd be better at LG than RG.

If he performed all year like he did in his 103 LG snaps, he'd be 15th among all qualified guards in run block, 38th among all qualified guards in pass block.
That's solid-or-better, for sure.

I'm cautiously optimistic he'll be better at LG, but I would prefer Spain (or someone better) added in FA just in case.

(04-07-2022, 03:47 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: Blah blah blah

Blind optimism. It’s a minuscule sample size. You’re deluding yourself if you think his 15 or so snaps all season at LG means anything significant

That's called trolling.