Is Jackson Carman "Your" Starting LG

[KillerGoose]

(05-20-2022, 11:58 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Someone ? Leonard Leap or Fred maybe ? Did a thread several years ago on the success rate of draft picks by round. Success being average or above starters that had some length of career. And if memory serves the drop off after the 3rd round is pretty severe. Oh there's always exceptions (Geno Atkins) but those are fairly few and far between.

Ben Baldwin studied this as well. I think his criteria is based on contract amount as it relates to the market. He did it for all positions. Based on this criteria, you have roughly a 30% shot of getting an average G in the 4th round. It continues dropping after that, of course. 

[*bfine32*]

(05-20-2022, 10:06 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Titans had a big problem with their O-line when Spain started as a rookie.

Trey Smith was 3 time All-SEC player who just dropped because of medical issues.  Volson is nothing close to that.

I assume that Edwards started due to injury since he was active but did not start until week 7.

And 3 times in the last decade is not "common".

Why does it matter how they started? Isn't the point that a 4th rounder can start and be productive enough to keep the gig or is the point to make sure you're right?

I just used the top 4 teams from last year to show it happens and is not uncommon. I did not do a 32 team sweep of the last 10 years. I imagine if I did I'd find a few more such as Jason Kelce, Bryan Stork, Corey Linsley, Mark Glowinski, Wyatt Teller, John Simpson, and others, But I have a feeling they "won't count" for some reason. 

[*Synric*]

From what I gather the Bengals are really happy about Carman's offseason work so far. If he comes into training camp still lean and in shape I expect him to start.

His big issue from year 1 was hand placement we will have to see if that continues to be a problem.

[fredtoast]

(05-20-2022, 12:44 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Why does it matter how they started? Isn't the point that a 4th rounder can start and be productive enough to keep the gig or is the point to make sure you're right?

The point we were discussing was a 4th round pick beating out veterans like Carman to win the starting job.

(05-20-2022, 12:44 PM)bfine32 Wrote: I did not do a 32 team sweep of the last 10 years. I imagine if I did I'd find a few more such as Jason Kelce, Bryan Stork, Corey Linsley, Mark Glowinski, Wyatt Teller, John Simpson, and others, But I have a feeling they "won't count" for some reason. 

Oh, no.  They will all count.

But someone has already done the work for you.

(05-20-2022, 10:56 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: Since 2010, only 22% of guards selected in the 4th round or later have started more than three games in their rookie season. Out of this 22%, the average PFF grade is 56.6. If we raise our criteria of being a starter to starting eight games or more, only 6% of guards selected from the 4th round or later qualify. The average PFF grade is 56.78.

It's pretty rare, and not very good when it does happen.

[*bfine32*]

(05-20-2022, 01:15 PM)fredtoast Wrote: The point we were discussing was a 4th round pick beating out veterans like Carman to win the starting job.



Oh, no.  They will all count.

But someone has already done the work for you.

Oh I thought the point we were discussing was  "if a 4th round pick starts as a rookie then we have a big problem on our o-line.". So I provided examples of 4th rounders or later starting on numerous olines in their rookie seasons. 

The thing is about "others doing the work for you". They have their own agenda...

[Soonerpeace]

(05-20-2022, 11:49 AM)ochocincos Wrote: I feel like if the Bengals were really losing patience with Carman's work ethic already, they'd have brought in a veteran (at least a stopgap) to not have to rely on him or a Day 3 rookie to start.
Just my opinion though.

I think as I mentioned they feel better about it but not so much last year.

[Soonerpeace]

(05-20-2022, 11:54 AM)fredtoast Wrote: What does this even mean?

He played with a back injury that required surgery. Is that being "babied".

That means EXACTLY what I said. He was babied at Clemson.

[*ochocincos*]

(05-20-2022, 12:03 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Ben Baldwin studied this as well. I think his criteria is based on contract amount as it relates to the market. He did it for all positions. Based on this criteria, you have roughly a 30% shot of getting an average G in the 4th round. It continues dropping after that, of course. 

It's worth noting too that the percentage continues to drop the later in the round you go.
The decline from 101 to 138 to be an average-tier starter is ~10%.

Thank you for posting btw.

It's not that it does not happen. There are clear examples where it does.
But the probability goes down the later in the draft someone is selected.

[fredtoast]

(05-20-2022, 01:51 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: That means EXACTLY what I said. He was babied at Clemson.

Sorry, but could you give me an example.

The term "babied" is way too vague for me to have any clue what you are talking about.

[fredtoast]

(05-20-2022, 01:34 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Oh I thought the point we were discussing was  "if a 4th round pick starts as a rookie then we have a big problem on our o-line.". So I provided examples of 4th rounders or later starting on numerous olines in their rookie seasons. 

And you had no clue that the Titans had a problem with their O-line when Spain started a rookie.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(05-19-2022, 10:15 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: The point is he held his own, and never gave the job back up.

Technically, he didn't hold his own (PFF grade *at the time* was terrible and he appeared too weak) and he did give the job back up (he played at RG for Bobbie, who promptly started every game he was healthy after that, for the rest of the year and Boling stayed on the bench).

Hell, in 2012, he was STILL a backup, with Travelle Wharton being the starter at LG, but he hurt himself in the first PS game and then Boling assumed the position, excelled and never gave it back up.

[*bfine32*]

(05-20-2022, 02:09 PM)fredtoast Wrote: And you had no clue that the Titans had a problem with their O-line when Spain started a rookie.

As I asked earlier>>>Why does that matter? He started as a rookie and held on to the job. 

Speaking of Spain....Don't you have some sort of Sig bet concerning him?

[fredtoast]

(05-20-2022, 02:17 PM)bfine32 Wrote: As I asked earlier>>>Why does that matter? He started as a rookie and held on to the job. 

"If we have a 4th rounder starting as a rookie then we will have a problem with our o-line!"

"Oh really?  Quentin Spain started as a rookie UDFA and the Titans had a big problem with their o-line. What do you say to that?"

"Okey Dokey."

[*ochocincos*]

(05-20-2022, 02:17 PM)bfine32 Wrote: As I asked earlier>>>Why does that matter? He started as a rookie and held on to the job. 

Speaking of Spain....Don't you have some sort of Sig bet concerning him?

I think Fred's saying even if Volson does end up starting as a rookie, don't expect him to do very well.
Michael Jordan (also Pick 136 like Volson) started 9 games as a rookie and was horrendous.
Volson isn't necessarily going to follow the same path as Jordan, but Jordan is like most 4th round OL - They likely won't start as a rookie, and if they do, they are usually below average.
So all Fred is saying is don't count on Volson comin out guns-a-blazin.

[*bfine32*]

(05-20-2022, 02:25 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I think Fred's saying even if Volson does end up starting as a rookie, don't expect him to do very well.
Michael Jordan (also Pick 136 like Volson) started 9 games as a rookie and was horrendous.
Volson isn't necessarily going to follow the same path as Jordan, but Jordan is like most 4th round OL - They likely won't start as a rookie, and if they do, they are usually below average.
So all Fred is saying is don't count on Volson comin out guns-a-blazin.

And I'm saying we don't know. there's numerous examples of late RD rookies contributing to olines.

Was KC in trouble last year when Trey Smith started. Was LA in trouble when David Edwards started...

Hell Green Bay had a 4th RD rookie starting at OG

I think these RECENT examples show a good team can "not have a big problem with their oline". If a 4th rd or later interior olineman is starting.

Hell Jackson Carman was a high 2nd rd pick, started 7 games as a rookie and was terrible.

[Soonerpeace]

(05-20-2022, 02:04 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Sorry, but could you give me an example.

The term "babied" is way too vague for me to have any clue what you are talking about.

Can’t that was the word used to me. Didn’t ask for further elaboration. I’d assume he wasn’t pushed hard. Came in soft. Wasn’t tough. Wasn’t a hard worker. Dunno

[*ochocincos*]

(05-20-2022, 02:40 PM)bfine32 Wrote: And I'm saying we don't know. there's numerous examples of late RD rookies contributing to olines.

Was KC in trouble last year when Trey Smith started. Was LA in trouble when David Edwards started...

Hell Green Bay had a 4th RD rookie starting at OG

I think these RECENT examples show a good team can "not have a big problem with their oline". If a 4th rd or later interior olineman is starting.

Hell Jackson Carman was a high 2nd rd pick, started 7 games as a rookie and was terrible.

We don't know, you're right. But the probability is low.
Fred's saying it's too early to start getting too hyped on Cordell Volson.
Odds aren't in his favor to come in and do well right away.
Instead, maybe we should wait and see before being too optimistic.

[*bfine32*]

(05-20-2022, 02:52 PM)ochocincos Wrote: We don't know, you're right. But the probability is low.
Fred's saying it's too early to start getting too hyped on Cordell Volson.
Odds aren't in his favor to come in and do well right away.
Instead, maybe we should wait and see before being too optimistic.

I'll never fault anyone for being too optimistic.

WTS, I hope Jackson wins the starting LG gig; he has the best pedigree of those contending. I will take exception when anyone says "We're in big trouble if Volson is starting". 

[casear2727]

(05-20-2022, 02:51 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: Can’t that was the word used to me. Didn’t ask for further elaboration. I’d assume he wasn’t pushed hard. Came in soft. Wasn’t tough. Wasn’t a hard worker. Dunno

Not sure about the "babied" term but I can confirm that it has been reported that Carmen had the same maturity issues at Clemson as he did in High School.

[GodFather]

Jackson is a product of his own destiny. If he wants it he will get it. Let’s see how hard he works physically and mentally this off-season and during training camp to win the job.

I personally don’t have faith in him at all but hope I’m wrong and would love to see him turn a corner coming into year 2 and play great and consistent.