PFF Bengals FA Grade

[*ochocincos*]

(04-14-2022, 05:00 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: so that right there is an improvement over Uzomah in the receiving category. Glad you agree

I think he could be, but probably not by some huge amount.
As I said, I think he could be in the 600-700 range.
But I also think he could be in the 500 range depending on targets.
His YPR is about on par with Uzomah's, so if he gets about the same number of targets, I don't expect a huge increase over Uzomah's 2021.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-14-2022, 04:44 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Hurst's best YPC in any season is 11.6.
If he were to reach 800 yards at 11.6 YPC, that'd be 69 receptions.
His best catch percentage in a season was 84%.
So for Hurst to get 69 receptions, he's going to need 80-85 targets.

You think he's going to get that many targets?

I don't think he will, but maybe he would if he can get open enough and Burrow finds him reliable quickly.

Depends on injuries and how well he gets open. One of the WR's will miss some time, just the way it goes.

Burrow targets the open guy, I think it is very possible Hurst gets that many targets.

Hurst as you said has been behind Andrews and just last year Pitts who I think could be the next great pass catching TE.

He won't be behind anyone here and has Burrow throwing to him. 

I expect a big year from him, the best of his career barring injury.

(04-14-2022, 04:50 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Uzomah is bigger and clunkier.
With Uzomah not being as nimble, he also appears slower.
It'd be ideal if someone had a max MPH that each has ran on the field in the NFL.

All true.

[*ochocincos*]

(04-14-2022, 07:30 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Depends on injuries and how well he gets open. One of the WR's will miss some time, just the way it goes.

Burrow targets the open guy, I think it is very possible Hurst gets that many targets.

Hurst as you said has been behind Andrews and just last year Pitts who I think could be the next great pass catching TE.

He won't be behind anyone here and has Burrow throwing to him. 

I expect a big year from him, the best of his career barring injury.


All true.

Hurst in 2020 had his best statistical year.
Most targets - 88
Only 56 receptions for 571 yards, 6 TDs.

He played in the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL that year.
Matt Ryan led the league in pass attempts (626) and completions (407).
He was 4th in passing yards.
14% of his pass attempts went to Hurst.

Burrow only had 520 pass attempts this past year. 12% went to Uzomah.

I just have a hard time believing he's going to see 80+ targets and also having the yardage you think he's gonna have.
I can surely see 500+, but around 800 just would be extraordinary.

Are you expecting Burrow to be 600+ attempts this regular season?

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-14-2022, 08:31 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Hurst in 2020 had his best statistical year.
Most targets - 88
Only 56 receptions for 571 yards, 6 TDs.

He played in the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL that year.
Matt Ryan led the league in pass attempts (626) and completions (407).
He was 4th in passing yards.
14% of his pass attempts went to Hurst.

Burrow only had 520 pass attempts this past year. 12% went to Uzomah.

I just have a hard time believing he's going to see 80+ targets and also having the yardage you think he's gonna have.
I can surely see 500+, but around 800 just would be extraordinary.

Are you expecting Burrow to be 600+ attempts this regular season?

Good points. Also the running game should be muchly improved with this new O-line. I don't expect Burrow to throw that much.

How many drops did Hurst have that year is my question? I thought he had good hands but that seems like a high drop percentage
if Ryan was anywhere near accurate when passing to the man.

[Frank Booth]

(04-14-2022, 09:42 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Good points. Also the running game should be muchly improved with this new O-line. I don't expect Burrow to throw that much.

How many drops did Hurst have that year is my question? I thought he had good hands but that seems like a high drop percentage
if Ryan was anywhere near accurate when passing to the man.

The reason the falcons threw it so much was the run game was god awful. 3.7 ypa. And the o-line was awful as well.

It was 2020 Burrow offense esque

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-14-2022, 09:53 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: The reason the falcons threw it so much was the run game was god awful. 3.7 ypa. And the o-line was awful as well.

It was 2020 Burrow offense esque

Makes sense. 

[Frank Booth]

(04-14-2022, 09:42 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: How many drops did Hurst have that year is my question? I thought he had good hands

I just read a pff article before the 2021 season and it said he’s one of the most sure handed tight ends in the league with only 3 drops in 150 targets

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-pff-tight-end-rankings-2021-nfl-season

Number 27

[*ochocincos*]

(04-14-2022, 09:42 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Good points. Also the running game should be muchly improved with this new O-line. I don't expect Burrow to throw that much.

How many drops did Hurst have that year is my question? I thought he had good hands but that seems like a high drop percentage
if Ryan was anywhere near accurate when passing to the man.

According to https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HursHa00.htm he had 4 drops in 2020.
His catch percentage was only 63% that year.
Matt Ryan's completion percentage that year was 65%, which was just below Burrow's 65.3% that year.
Ryan has had as high as a 69.4% completion back in 2018.

[*ochocincos*]

(04-14-2022, 10:30 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: I just read a pff article before the 2021 season and it said he’s one of the most sure handed tight ends in the league with only 3 drops in 150 targets

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-pff-tight-end-rankings-2021-nfl-season

Number 27

Aside from his drops in 2020, I don't believe he's had any. At least according to pro football reference.

This is less about him being sure-handed though, and more about his ability to get yards.

In college, his average YPR was 12.8.
In the NFL, his average YPR is 10.4.

He's just not in the same caliber as guys like Andrews (13.2 NFL), Pitts (15.1), or even OJ Howard (14.6).

He's going to be a steady, reliable guy who will get solid production, but to think he's going to magically ascend into the upper echelon of receiving TEs all because he's with the Bengals now is just wishful thinking. There's always a chance it happens, but it's a low probability.

[fredtoast]

(04-15-2022, 09:47 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Aside from his drops in 2020, I don't believe he's had any. At least according to pro football reference.

This is less about him being sure-handed though, and more about his ability to get yards.

In college, his average YPR was 12.8.
In the NFL, his average YPR is 10.4.

He's just not in the same caliber as guys like Andrews (13.2 NFL), Pitts (15.1), or even OJ Howard (14.6).

He's going to be a steady, reliable guy who will get solid production, but to think he's going to magically ascend into the upper echelon of receiving TEs all because he's with the Bengals now is just wishful thinking. There's always a chance it happens, but it's a low probability.

A TEs YPR depends more on how he is used than how great of an athlete he is.  Obviously the guys who are better athletes are used as deeper receivers more often, but no TE playing with Chase, Higgins, and Boyd is going to have a big YPR or a ton of targets either.

I think Hurst will probably have better numbers than CJ did last year simply because of "inflation", i.e. the Bengals will throw for about 500 more yards this season.  But he is not going to break out into an 800+ yd TE or average over 13 per catch as long as our big 3 WRs are healthy.

[Luvnit2]

Is he a top 5 TE like Andrews, Kelcie, and Kittle. But he is not paid like a top 15 TE either?

How did ur bad OL impact our TE's to go out on routes versus having to stay in and block? I know Atlanta was pass happy one year but did they have an above average pass blocking OL or worse?

All of that plays into use of a TE on number of routes ran

I think Uz was limited by our poor OL and had to block versus just releasing on a route

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-14-2022, 10:30 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: I just read a pff article before the 2021 season and it said he’s one of the most sure handed tight ends in the league with only 3 drops in 150 targets

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-pff-tight-end-rankings-2021-nfl-season

Number 27

Thanks Frank, I thought so.

(04-15-2022, 09:42 AM)ochocincos Wrote: According to https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HursHa00.htm he had 4 drops in 2020.
His catch percentage was only 63% that year.
Matt Ryan's completion percentage that year was 65%, which was just below Burrow's 65.3% that year.
Ryan has had as high as a 69.4% completion back in 2018.

(04-15-2022, 09:47 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Aside from his drops in 2020, I don't believe he's had any. At least according to pro football reference.

This is less about him being sure-handed though, and more about his ability to get yards.

In college, his average YPR was 12.8.
In the NFL, his average YPR is 10.4.

He's just not in the same caliber as guys like Andrews (13.2 NFL), Pitts (15.1), or even OJ Howard (14.6).

He's going to be a steady, reliable guy who will get solid production, but to think he's going to magically ascend into the upper echelon of receiving TEs all because he's with the Bengals now is just wishful thinking. There's always a chance it happens, but it's a low probability.

Well we don't need Hurst to be Andrews or Pitts. We just need him to be a better Receiver than Uzo and an okay blocker.

I think he will be what we need.

(04-15-2022, 10:52 AM)fredtoast Wrote: A TEs YPR depends more on how he is used than how great of an athlete he is.  Obviously the guys who are better athletes are used as deeper receivers more often, but no TE playing with Chase, Higgins, and Boyd is going to have a big YPR or a ton of targets either.

I think Hurst will probably have better numbers than CJ did last year simply because of "inflation", i.e. the Bengals will throw for about 500 more yards this season.  But he is not going to break out into an 800+ yd TE or average over 13 per catch as long as our big 3 WRs are healthy.

Agree, just high expectations to think all 3 of our big 3 WR's will stay healthy the entire season.

That is why I could see Hurst getting around 800 yards and quite a few TD's. Better route runner and one thing we really
need to improve on on Offense is in the Red Zone and I think Hurst can really help us in this aspect.

(04-15-2022, 01:12 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Is he a top 5 TE like Andrews, Kelcie, and Kittle. But he is not paid like a top 15 TE either?

How did ur bad OL impact our TE's to go out on routes versus having to stay in and block? I know Atlanta was pass happy one year but did they have an above average pass blocking OL or worse?

All of that plays into use of a TE on number of routes ran

I think Uz was limited by our poor OL and had to block versus just releasing on a route

I too agree that the poor OL limited a lot of what Uzo was able to do, same with Sample who had to block a lot.