Winning when no one expects it is fun. Winning when you are supposed to win is hard.

[KillerGoose]

(04-25-2022, 07:15 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I'd bet they'll try and be balanced a bit. And having a big lead, which I hope happens some, leads to more running plays. But I get what you're saying. With Burrow and this set of receivers I highly doubt they're gonna go old 3 yards in a cloud of dust.

Yeah, there are factors that can influence total attempts. I think they will maintain the balance they had for most of the season last year. They really went pass crazy at the end, but we’re pretty balanced for the most part. Your last sentence nails it for me. We have one of the best QBs in the league with arguably the best WR trio. They’re going to utilize that heavily, in my opinion. As they should.

[Soonerpeace]

(04-25-2022, 06:46 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I’d take that bet. Mixon will get zero votes. You are vastly overrating Mixon, the offensive line and how much the Bengals will run the ball.

Joe Mixon if he’s healthy is going to explode. He’s going to be a scoring machine. Cincinnati or the NFL has never really seen his explosiveness. He will have some long TD’s in the run game and the passing game. You’ll see. There’s a reason he scored a TD at Oklahoma every 14 touches and number 1 in history there for TD efficiency. Do you live in Cincy?

[KillerGoose]

(04-25-2022, 08:27 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: Joe Mixon if he’s healthy is going to explode. He’s going to be a scoring machine. Cincinnati or the NFL has never really seen his explosiveness. He will have some long TD’s in the run game and the passing game. You’ll see. There’s a reason he scored a TD at Oklahoma every 14 touches and number 1 in history there for TD efficiency. Do you live in Cincy?

I think he is going to have a great season, but we’re talking different levels of great here. You’re building him up to be some all-time great type RB here and that’s just absurd. He won’t get any MVP votes and he isn’t about to take the NFL by storm or anything silly like that. I guess I am kind of pissing your parade, so I’ll stop because we just disagree. If you want to bang the Mixon for MVP drum, then have at it. It’s the off-season, we all deserve to have fun.

To your last question, no. I live in Oklahoma. I watched his entire career. His college career means nothing for his NFL prospects. Plenty of RBs dominated in college to do nothing in the NFL.

[Soonerpeace]

(04-25-2022, 08:36 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I think he is going to have a great season, but we’re talking different levels of great here. You’re building him up to be some all-time great type RB here and that’s just absurd. He won’t get any MVP votes and he isn’t about to take the NFL by storm or anything silly like that. I guess I am kind of pissing your parade, so I’ll stop because we just disagree. If you want to bang the Mixon for MVP drum, then have at it. It’s the off-season, we all deserve to have fun.

To your last question, no. I live in Oklahoma. I watched his entire career. His college career means nothing for his NFL prospects. Plenty of RBs dominated in college to do nothing in the NFL.

I live in Oklahoma as well.

[Frank Booth]

(04-25-2022, 07:11 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: The Rams finished 23rd in attempts. They were seventh in 2020, when they had Goff. Once they upgraded their QB play, they let Stafford loose and won a Super Bowl. The Bengals will likely do the same thing imo, just with improved efficiency in the run game.

Mixon + the o-line is gonna be too good not to use consistently

I say they finish top 10 in attempts IF Mixon plays in at least 14 out of 17 games

[KillerGoose]

(04-25-2022, 09:18 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: Mixon + the o-line is gonna be too good not to use consistently

I say they finish top 10 in attempts IF Mixon plays in at least 14 out of 17 games

Burrow, Chase, Higgins and Boyd are going to be too good to not use consistently. The same argument applies. I don’t think their split looks much different than it did this year, something like 60-40 pass or 58-42 pass. We’ll see, though, who knows. The team will be able to do both very well, I just think they are a team better built for passing.

[Housh]

(04-25-2022, 09:18 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: Mixon + the o-line is gonna be too good not to use consistently

I say they finish top 10 in attempts IF Mixon plays in at least 14 out of 17 games

I’d bet good money we are in the bottom 10 of rush attempts in the 2022-2023 season. ZT and Burrow just give off the vibe that they’ll pass even with a decent o line.

[Mike M (the other one)]

(04-26-2022, 12:13 AM)Housh Wrote: I’d bet good money we are in the bottom 10 of rush attempts in the 2022-2023 season. ZT and Burrow just give off the vibe that they’ll pass even with a decent o line.

They do, but i think we are gonna be in the lead more often than not and milking that clock in the 2nd half of games.
Besides, running the ball well is the best way to protect Burrow.

[grampahol]

I'll just remember the pretty good punt returners who almost never put the ball on the ground and yet there were numerous members here who wanted said player gone just because they didn't return them all for TDs.. Perhaps the debacle last season with Phillips will make some of you appreciate just not fumbling the damned ball a bit more than years past.. Phillips almost single handedly got us out of the playoffs if anyone recalls..
I'd much prefer a slow, plodding 8 yard return guy who never fumbles over some flash in the pan, a TD once every few years type guy, but still coughs up the ball several times a year.... Yes..It's all fun. I want em to win it all, but I still remember when they couldn't win a ticket to the way out the door.. 

[Sled21]

(04-25-2022, 06:02 PM)Whacked Wrote: IMHO ….

The reasons we may not repeat despite having the same talent (actually, much improved)…..

1. Our schedule last year vs this year: apples and oranges.

2. We avoided COVID and injuries while others did not (Rat Turds and Browns)

3. It took other teams way too long to use a better D-scheme to shut Chase down.
He ran wild for 3/4’s of the season and had such a ridiculous impact. This slowed down
considerably once other teams got smart.

4. The AFCN just got much better

5. As did the Dolphins, Bills, Raiders, Broncos and Chiefs.

I just don’t see a SB appearance due to the above.

1) We had the 6th hardest schedule last year. This year is a division winner's schedule, but last year wasn't exactly easy. 

2) True

3) Right now, there isn't much anyone can do to shut Chase down. If they double him all the time, Burrow will just kill them with Higgins and Boyd. We have the gold standard at WR 1-3 plus a premiere Running Back. Chase will have another huge year.

4) So did the Bengals. The Steelers are having a QB competition between Rudolph and Trubisky. I expect Mitchell to win. Color me unimpressed. The Browns will always Brown regardless of who they have, the Factory of Sadness got that name for a reason, they are the epitome of dysfunction. Lou has figured out how to shut down Lamar, and in reality I think Lamar is on the decline (and I'm a big fan of his) 

5) Only team that really concerns me there is the Bills.

[Daddy-O]

(04-25-2022, 06:02 PM)Whacked Wrote: IMHO ….

The reasons we may not repeat despite having the same talent (actually, much improved)…..

1. Our schedule last year vs this year: apples and oranges.

2. We avoided COVID and injuries while others did not (Rat Turds and Browns)

3. It took other teams way too long to use a better D-scheme to shut Chase down.
He ran wild for 3/4’s of the season and had such a ridiculous impact. This slowed down
considerably once other teams got smart.

4. The AFCN just got much better

5. As did the Dolphins, Bills, Raiders, Broncos and Chiefs.

I just don’t see a SB appearance due to the above.

No doubt a bunch of teams in the AFC are much improved, but so too are the Bengals.  Additionally, Burrow will finally have a full "normal" offseason to prepare.  And don't forget each of these AFC teams play each other as well so it will be a dogfight all year.

One thing's for sure, the Bengals unlike other years will have high expectations just like the other top teams.  Sundays will be so fun because every weekend will be so important.  Can't wait.

Why not us.....again!

[KillerGoose]

(04-26-2022, 08:46 AM)Sled21 Wrote: 1) We had the 6th hardest schedule last year. This year is a division winner's schedule, but last year wasn't exactly easy. 

2) True

3) Right now, there isn't much anyone can do to shut Chase down. If they double him all the time, Burrow will just kill them with Higgins and Boyd. We have the gold standard at WR 1-3 plus a premiere Running Back. Chase will have another huge year.

4) So did the Bengals. The Steelers are having a QB competition between Rudolph and Trubisky. I expect Mitchell to win. Color me unimpressed. The Browns will always Brown regardless of who they have, the Factory of Sadness got that name for a reason, they are the epitome of dysfunction. Lou has figured out how to shut down Lamar, and in reality I think Lamar is on the decline (and I'm a big fan of his) 

5) Only team that really concerns me there is the Bills.

The Bengals had the easiest schedule in the league last year. The 6th hardest schedule argument comes from opponent records, but Cincinnati played a wide range of mediocre teams. For instance, in order to fully believe that argument, you have to truly believe that the Steelers were a playoff team. They played...

Chicago (#7 OA)
New York Jets (#4 OA)
Jacksonville (#1 OA)
Detroit (#2 OA)
Vikings
Ravens x2
Steelers x2
Browns x2
Denver

The Bengals were very fortunate with their schedule last year. They had an easy schedule with minimal injuries. The Ravens are a good team, if healthy, but they were crushed by injuries last season. The Bengals didn't even play Lamar Jackson in their final game. The Browns would have been a good team, if they didn't have bad QB play. The same for the Steelers. It's hard to predict injuries, but if the Ravens can stay healthy and Watson is what he is, then Baltimore and Cleveland are already significantly better than last season. I would say that the Bengals are as well, but I digress. 

The Bengals did not have a difficult schedule last year - they just played a bunch of mediocre teams that inflated their opponent W/L record. 

[fredtoast]

(04-25-2022, 06:02 PM)Whacked Wrote: 3. It took other teams way too long to use a better D-scheme to shut Chase down.
He ran wild for 3/4’s of the season and had such a ridiculous impact. This slowed down
considerably once other teams got smart.

Well I know why they call you "Whacked".

Chase had 266 yards in game #16 and gained 400 yards in 4 playoff games.

[Soonerpeace]

(04-25-2022, 09:37 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Burrow, Chase, Higgins and Boyd are going to be too good to not use consistently. The same argument applies. I don’t think their split looks much different than it did this year, something like 60-40 pass or 58-42 pass. We’ll see, though, who knows. The team will be able to do both very well, I just think they are a team better built for passing.

I know you have a good feel for the Bengals offense. Zac is old school. He uses a notebook not a laptop most of the time. The Bengals won’t be having to have such strong second halves this coming season. He also likes to establish the run game but that’s not been easy to do. He will establish the run game early in games and run it in the fourth quarter. But he will also do what the defense dictates. Their offense will focus on eliminating as many double teams as possible on Chase. They also will use the run game to set up Hudson Hawk. The TE will be utilized more. What will result is more big plays from the receivers but less touches IMHO. I also think Mixon will get more action in the passing game as they aren’t going to need to keep a back in to block as much. We’ll see

[fredtoast]

(04-26-2022, 10:14 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: The Bengals had the easiest schedule in the league last year. 

Based on what measurement?

I actually agree that the Bengals had a pretty easy schedule last year, but i don't see it as the easiest.

[fredtoast]

Bengals will run the ball more this year, but our passing game will be just too good to not use to its full potential. It would be stupid to make this a running team with the QB and WRs we have.

[KillerGoose]

(04-26-2022, 11:28 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Based on what measurement?

I actually agree that the Bengals had a pretty easy schedule last year, but i don't see it as the easiest.

The SOS, provided in that link. You can sort on the columns. The Bengals had an SOS value of -1.9, worst (or easiest) in the league. 

[fredtoast]

(04-26-2022, 11:38 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: The SOS, provided in that link. You can sort on the columns. The Bengals had an SOS value of -1.9, worst (or easiest) in the league. 

I just don't understand exactly how they come up with that number.

"Strength of Schedule" (SoS) appears to be calculated using "Simple Rating System" (SRS).  But SRS appears to be calculated using SoS.  It seems like circular logic to me, but I must be missing something. 

[grampahol]

Going into any season strength of schedule is typically an unknown since nobody really knows how any individual team will actually play. Last year most people expected Baltimore to be on top in the division or perhaps the Browns, but almost nobody expected it to be the Bengals. You can make predictions all day, but at this point you're only guessing. Any team can get injuries galore or just not gel together. Maybe one or more teams develop  bad cases of divas or coaches make poor decisions.. Anything can wreck any team's season.. Bengals seem to be in a good position with the lions share of last season's team returning, mostly the same staff, but you just never know. Just because some teams paid big bucks for FA's doesn't mean they won't have fatal holes in their rosters or poor backups and lack of depth..  We shall see..

[KillerGoose]

(04-26-2022, 12:05 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I just don't understand exactly how they come up with that number.

"Strength of Schedule" (SoS) appears to be calculated using "Simple Rating System" (SRS).  But SRS appears to be calculated using SoS.  It seems like circular logic to me, but I must be missing something. 

SRS is a rating calculated by average margin of victory, and SOS is the mean SRS of your opponents. It is trying to find the quality of opponent, rather than just looking at their record. Who has the team played, and how much have they been winning or losing by?