Darren Waller

[fredtoast]

People just keep getting enamored with top end TEs, but don't realize how much their value would be diminished playing with Higgins, Chase, and Boyd.

Waller is a great player but it would be a waste for resources for the Bengals because he simply would not have great value here. No TE is going to get enough targets to make a big difference in our offense. Giving more targets to a TE over Higgins, Boyd, or Chase would actually diminish our offense.

[*ochocincos*]

(04-26-2022, 11:03 AM)Au165 Wrote: It's really weird because we have our starting, well paid, 3T already on the roster and people act like we are desperate to find one. For what we are paying Hill he needs to take more snaps, but I also fully expect sample and Hubbard to take some of them on pass rushing downs. Even then if we are just looking for snap eaters we can find a vet post draft to do so but it's weird to me we act like 3T is such a massive need when we just paid one.

CB would be a place where if the right one fell it would be great but frankly I am not convinced the guys in the 2nd round are going to be that much different then the ones sitting there at 31. After the top 2 or 3 there is a group of 4 or 5 guys who all have their positives and negatives.

We just lost to a team who saw value in buying elite vets to win now. People still think we have this massive SB window because Burrow is young but those windows slam shut quickly for a multitude of reasons so if you aren't doing everything to win in the next two years you very well may miss the entire window.

Yep it's really just a nickel DT that's needed, assuming team doesn't feel comfortable putting Sample in that role and they want to keep Hubbard outside.
There are veterans still out there like Sheldon Richardson who could handle that.

Really wish the Bengals would have pounced on either Solomon Thomas or Maurice Hurst though. Both signed pretty cheap deals.

[Au165]

(04-26-2022, 11:22 AM)fredtoast Wrote: People just keep getting enamored with top end TEs, but don't realize how much their value would be diminished playing with Higgins, Chase, and Boyd.

Waller is a great player but it would be a waste for resources for the Bengals because he simply would not have great value here.  No TE is going to get enough targets to make a big difference in our offense.  Giving more targets to a TE over Higgins, Boyd, or Chase would actually diminish our offense.

Couple things, We have 63 targets to replace with CJ gone. Assuming our pass blocking is better some of those sacks, throw aways, incompletions from last year are going to be catches so there are some more catches across the board. We are also assuming no receiver gets hurt, which the reality is we were lucky last year and there will probably be some snaps lost to injury at some point. Our Red Zone scoring was awful so even if all an elite TE did was improve that he would be worth the price.

[Nicomo Cosca]

Our offense lived off the big play last season (mostly Chase). We struggled mightily in the red zone however. Having a TE like Waller would be huge. If he can score 9 TD’s in a season with not much around him on offense, and Carr throwing him the ball - imagine him with Burrow and our WR’s…

Anyway, it’s highly unlikely we’d trade for him, but it’s weird to me seeing people try and come up with reasons not to.

[BenZoo2]

Love Waller as a player. Good story too. No way in hell I trade 31 for him, let alone add in a 3rd or 4th


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[fredtoast]

(04-26-2022, 11:35 AM)Au165 Wrote: Couple things, We have 63 targets to replace with CJ gone. Assuming our pass blocking is better some of those sacks, throw aways, incompletions from last year are going to be catches so there are some more catches across the board. We are also assuming no receiver gets hurt, which the reality is we were lucky last year and there will probably be some snaps lost to injury at some point. Our Red Zone scoring was awful so even if all an elite TE did was improve that he would be worth the price.

1.  Since Uzo had a much better catch percentage and yards per target than Waller, Waller will have to have a lot more targets just to match what CJ did last year.

2.  An elite TE is no more effective in the redzone that an elite WR.  In fact elite WRs score more tds than elite TEs.

[fredtoast]

(04-26-2022, 11:37 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote:  If he can score 9 TD’s in a season with not much around him on offense, and Carr throwing him the ball - imagine him with Burrow and our WR’s…

Darren Waller only scored 2 tds in 2021 despite being the #2 most targeted player on the team behind Hunter Renfro.  When he scored 9 in 2020 he was the #1 target on the entire team.

My imagination tells me he wouldn't score many here behind Chase, Higgins, and Boyd.

[Au165]

(04-26-2022, 12:13 PM)fredtoast Wrote: 1.  Since Uzo had a much better catch percentage and yards per target than Waller, Waller will have to have a lot more targets just to match what CJ did last year.

2.  An elite TE is no more effective in the redzone that an elite WR.  In fact elite WRs score more tds than elite TEs.

Both these stats without context are absolutely useless. 

• CJ had an aDOT last year (Average depth of target) at 4.1 yards good for 29th for TE's where as Waller had an aDOT of 9.1 yards good for 9th.
• CJ had a target accuracy score last year (How close the ball is to center mass) last year of 8.3 good for 1st in the league for TE's while Waller's was 7.2 landinghim at 19th.
• CJ had a catchable target rate of 90.5% last year (if the ball is catchable or out of reach) #1 in the league for TE and Waller was 75.3% which was 21st in the league. 
• I will give you that CJ had a better true catch rate than Waller, so that was something.
  

Bottom line one was delivered the most accurate balls that any TE in the league got...the other was thrown balls by an average QB.

As for the redzone this is another stat without context, for example the percentage of TD's as receptions inside the 10 yard line between the top 5 WR's and the top 5 TE's is basically the same with it slightly favoring the TE's. 2021 maybe wasn't Waller's year but 2020 is redzone efficiency numbers were better than anyone on our team last year.

[Murdock2420]

(04-26-2022, 12:02 PM)BenZoo2 Wrote: Love Waller as a player.  Good story too.  No way in hell I trade 31 for him, let alone add in a 3rd or 4th


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Why?

Look at the draft history and tell me the odds that pick 31 comes in this year and produces anywhere close to the level you know you'll get from Waller.

This is the absolute correct time to trade a pick for a player. The team is in the Super Bowl win now window, as once Burrow is off his rookie contract, things get real...and quick. Pick 31 might be a stud or maybe the next Price, Ross, Ced, etc...

Waller gives you a known, a draft pick is always an unknown. 

[BenZoo2]

(04-26-2022, 03:43 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: Why?

Look at the draft history and tell me the odds that pick 31 comes in this year and produces anywhere close to the level you know you'll get from Waller.

This is the absolute correct time to trade a pick for a player. The team is in the Super Bowl win now window, as once Burrow is off his rookie contract, things get real...and quick. Pick 31 might be a stud or maybe the next Price, Ross, Ced, etc...

Waller gives you a known, a draft pick is always an unknown. 

I get your general sentiments. Here are mine. The bengals are fairly fortunate to be in the situation they’re in. The roster doesn’t really have a lot of glaring holes. Sure I’d like legit competition at cb and lg. a te and safety to groom. Depth for both lines and lb. This doesn’t need to be a sexy draft for us. A solid meat and potatoes draft.

I think we are better off preparing for that expensive future by drafting guys now and having them ready to replace some of those expensive guys. Both safeties are on the last year of their deals. We may not be able to keep our 3 stud wrs.

Then there’s his age to consider. Is he starting to break down? I dunno. I think hurst can be quite serviceable this year.

And then there’s this:

ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reports that there is "zero chance" Raiders TE Darren Waller will be traded.
Well, that would seem to settle that thread. It may or may not be true that Waller was actually offered to the Packers in the initial Davante Adams trade, but either way it seems like the Raiders are happy with the way that worked out for them. Waller has almost no guaranteed money left on his deal, and probably deserves a raise at some point in the near future.

Kinda makes this all a moot point if it’s true


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[Au165]

Looks like a new report is coming out that the flirting of trading Waller is done and they have moved on to keep him...so carry on nothing to see here.

[*ochocincos*]

(04-26-2022, 11:37 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Our offense lived off the big play last season (mostly Chase). We struggled mightily in the red zone however. Having a TE like Waller would be huge. If he can score 9 TD’s in a season with not much around him on offense, and Carr throwing him the ball - imagine him with Burrow and our WR’s…

Anyway, it’s highly unlikely we’d trade for him, but it’s weird to me seeing people try and come up with reasons not to.

Offense putting up even more points and having more time of possession will also help out the defense.
So in a way, Waller would also boost the defense.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(04-26-2022, 12:13 PM)fredtoast Wrote: 2.  An elite TE is no more effective in the redzone that an elite WR.  In fact elite WRs score more tds than elite TEs.

(04-26-2022, 12:18 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Darren Waller only scored 2 tds in 2021 despite being the #2 most targeted player on the team behind Hunter Renfro.  When he scored 9 in 2020 he was the #1 target on the entire team.

I guess that’s why until just last year when Chase went off Tyler Eifert had the most receiving TD’s in a given season for a Bengal since Carl Pickens. Not Chad. Not AJ. Eifert.

He also only played in 11 games in 2021. But it’s a moot point anyway if they aren’t interested in moving him.

[fredtoast]

(04-26-2022, 12:36 PM)Au165 Wrote:

• CJ had an aDOT last year (Average depth of target) at 4.1 yards good for 29th for TE's where as Waller had an aDOT of 9.1 yards good for 9th.
  

Thanks for making my point.  Wallers numbers will probably go down with the Bengals because he won't be targeted downfield as much.

He was the #2 target for the Raiders last year.  He would be #4 for the Bengals.

Boyd, Higgins, and Chase are all better receivers than Waller.  No way would I want to take any targets away from those three for Waller.

[fredtoast]

(04-26-2022, 06:47 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: I guess that’s why until just last year when Chase went off Tyler Eifert had the most receiving TD’s in a given season for a Bengal since Carl Pickens. Not Chad. Not AJ. Eifert.

I guess every team is now going to look for their franchise QB in the 6th round because of Tom Brady, right?

I don't know how to research league wide totals by position, but last year there were 19 individual players with at least 6 red zone td receptions.  Only 6 were TEs.

In 2020 there were 18 players with at least 6 red zone td receptions.  Again only 6 were TEs 

[Whatever]

(04-27-2022, 10:01 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Thanks for making my point.  Wallers numbers will probably go down with the Bengals because he won't be targeted downfield as much.

He was the #2 target for the Raiders last year.  He would be #4 for the Bengals.

Boyd, Higgins, and Chase are all better receivers than Waller.  No way would I want to take any targets away from those three for Waller.

Waller has a career YPT of 8.3 compared to 8.0 for Boyd.  He's a more productive receiver.than Boyd.  

I'm not going to give  a 1st for the guy, but Waller presents a potential matchup that can be exploited.  If the D has a really good nickel CB, but their LB's suck in coverage, I'm good with Waller taking targets away from Boyd.  It's already tough for a defense to stop Chase, Tee, and Boyd.  Throw Waller in there and it becomes next to impossible.  Plus he would also give you another quality target if there's an injury.  I'm more worried about Burrow's pass efficiency than I am individual receivers' target volume.  

It's not a bad idea.  It's just that the proposed cost is too high.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(04-27-2022, 10:20 AM)fredtoast Wrote: I guess every team is now going to look for their franchise QB in the 6th round because of Tom Brady, right?

I don't know how to research league wide totals by position, but last year there were 19 individual players with at least 6 red zone td receptions.  Only 6 were TEs.

In 2020 there were 18 players with at least 6 red zone td receptions.  Again only 6 were TEs 

Wtf does this even mean? I assure you, TE’s that lead their teams in TD’s are much less of an outlier than finding the best QB of all time in the 6th round. Ridiculous to even bring that up in comparison.

No idea what your stats are supposed to prove, but it’s pretty obvious there’s more top WR’s than top TE’s? Not sure how that devalues anything if you do have a top TE like Andrews, Waller, Kelce, Kittle, Gronk, etc.

[Au165]

(04-27-2022, 10:01 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Thanks for making my point.  Wallers numbers will probably go down with the Bengals because he won't be targeted downfield as much.

He was the #2 target for the Raiders last year.  He would be #4 for the Bengals.

Boyd, Higgins, and Chase are all better receivers than Waller.  No way would I want to take any targets away from those three for Waller.

This isn’t receptions it’s targets meaning routes ran. The opposite is true, shorter target depth means he’d be more efficient. You said his catching wasn’t as good, the point is because catch rate tends to go down the further down the field you get.

[Au165]

(04-27-2022, 10:01 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Thanks for making my point.  Wallers numbers will probably go down with the Bengals because he won't be targeted downfield as much.

He was the #2 target for the Raiders last year.  He would be #4 for the Bengals.

Boyd, Higgins, and Chase are all better receivers than Waller.  No way would I want to take any targets away from those three for Waller.

This isn’t receptions it’s targets meaning routes ran. The opposite is true, shorter target depth means he’d be more efficient. You said his catching wasn’t as good, the point is because catch rate tends to go down the further down the field you get.

Again, he’s not moving per latest reports but your argument from jump didn’t actually match the data.

[*ochocincos*]

(04-26-2022, 12:02 PM)BenZoo2 Wrote: Love Waller as a player.  Good story too.  No way in hell I trade 31 for him, let alone add in a 3rd or 4th


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Why wouldn't you trade 31 for him?
He put up 665 yards in just 11 games last year.
He was 10th in the league and missed 6 games.
He's a Top 5 TE when healthy.
Kelce, Kittle, Waller, Andrews, and now probably Pitts.

If you go by the OG Jimmy Johnson trade value chart - https://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/draft_trade_value.htm
Pick 31 - 600 pts
Pick 95 - 120 pts

Trading 31+95 equates to the 25th pick - 720 pts.
You're telling me Darren Waller, a perennial 1000+ yard TE and Top 5 guy at his position, isn't worth the 25th overall pick?

Add in the fact his cap hit is low for a TE nowadays ($6.3 mill and $7 mill) and under contract for 2022 and 2023, he's a great value.