Who Wins The AFCN "Honestly"

[Whatever]

(05-15-2022, 09:07 PM)jason Wrote: I remember the first time they played him in 2020, Lamar was on a bad ankle. I don't remember him playing that bad, but I do remember that they beat the brakes off us in both meetings that year. Maybe those final scores are clouding my judgement on how well they handled Lamar. Pretty sure they gave up like 500 yards in that season finale that year though.

In the '20 season finale, he went 10 of 18 for 113 yards, 3 TD's, and one pick, as well as 97 yards on the ground.  The TD's probably make it seem like he was more effective than he actually was.

[fredtoast]

(05-15-2022, 11:32 PM)Whatever Wrote:  The TD's probably make it seem like he was more effective than he actually was.

Actually what made him seem more effective was the complete and total domination of our defense.  Through just 3 quarters the Ravens had 38 points, 463 yards, and 22 first downs.  They were 10 of 13 on third downs.  Jackson was having his way with our defense.  He had ran for 6 first downs (2 on 3rd down) and had thrown for 5 more first downs (2 on 3rd down, 1 on 4th down).  He was embarrassing us.

[*SHRacerX*]

(05-09-2022, 11:10 PM)Emeritus Wrote:

I just thought that it would be interesting to hear point of views after the draft and movement.

- I'd love to take my team but I'm taking the Steelers for some odd reason by a game to win the division over our Bengals. I think that we'll split outside of sweeping the Browns.

What ya think. I could see three teams making the playoffs out of the AFCN. OUR HEALTH WILL BE OUR BLESSING THIS SEASON.

People get overly hyped based on draft picks and their "potential", when in reality a draft pick that has an impact like Ja'Marr Chase is very rare.  To have two game (season) changing additions like Chase and Shooter is even more rare.  Keep that in mind when you look at the teams as how they shape up this year.

I think the biggest thread to the Bengals is the Ravens.  They simply have the most talent remaining from proven squad.  They added Bateman and Oweh last year.  Bateman flashed and will be relied on to do a lot more with their excellent TE group.  Oweh was damn good as a rookie and can be expected to take the next step this year.  Hamilton and Linderbaum project as immediate starters.  They will also be determined to prove they are better than what their injured squad showed last year.  That being said, there is a huge cloud hanging over them right now in terms of Lamar Jackson not signed beyond this current year is shocking.  The Ravens, unlike every other QB from that class or even close to the same age, chose to use the club-option 5th year of his rookie contract.  Jackson has been paid just under $10 million through the first four years, but stands to make $23 million this year.  

I feel bad for the guy (can't believe I'm saying that) as he seems to put his body on the line as a RB (but doesn't take a lot of shots somehow, but when he does get hit...well, he isn't a big guy at all) and they are paying him as a less than mid-tier QB.  I mean, Kirk Cousins has been paid over $25 million more than Jackson for each of his first four years.  That's not right.

Jackson is his own agent.  He and his mother do the contracts.  No agents.  I'm sure he has a problem with this contract situation, but unlike the whiny Kyler Murray (and others) he has kept quiet and is just going about his job.  I wonder if he thinks that if he comes out and sets the league on fire the first four games, the Ravens will offer an extension.  Either way, he will be out to prove himself.  

The Browns have some real talent, but also some significant holes.  They are the ultimate boom or bust team.  Their talent can click and they can beat the snot out of a team, or they can have an off day and their holes cost them a game.  Their QB situation isn't going to help matter.  Brisett is a good dude, and can hand the ball off and run around a bit, but won't be airing it out for 300 yards in this division.  It appears the league really threw them a nice launch pad on the schedule by having their easiest games early, while Watson is likely out for suspension.  The big risk for the Browns is that if they don't come out and win most of those games with Brisett, they will be up the proverbial creek. 

The steelers live on the reputation of their defense and their coach.  However, their defense has a ton of old guys, some big holes, and has the issue of defending with an offense that is unlikely to build a ton of leads.  Tomlin has the "never been below .500" on the front page of his resume, but those teams had a lot of years with four wins coming against weak Cleveland and Cincinnati clubs.  Sad, but true.  That time is over, and their time as contenders is done.  I see them as a 6 win team.  

The Bengals are not the clear favorites in the division for one reason:  history.  Most teams that have lost the Super Bowl don't have great seasons the following year.  They also don't have a reputation of being a traditionally strong team.  Both of those narratives end this year.  

If you go back to the team that lost at Chicago.  They were keeping Burrow so "sheltered".  The offense was pathetic and the defense was just starting to figure itself out.  The offensive line was awful, and Hopkins, while being out there itself was admirable after the recent injury, was a shell of himself.  The defense was adjusting to life (again) without Waynes and Apple was struggling early on.

That being said, down the stretch the offense rolled.  Even with a pathetic Prince at RT.  They were still not good at rushing the ball, but Burrow could lead this offense and put up the points.  The defense was even better.  They, along with Shooter, were the main reason for making the Super Bowl.  

Fast forward to 2022.  THREE new massive upgrades on the offensive line.  An average improvement of 20 points, according to PFF, over their predecessors.  A former first round TE to help ease the pain of losing CJ Uzomah.  A great draft with depth and speed in the secondary, a guy to compete at 3T, and the return of Ossai to help rush the passer.  

While all the other teams in the AFC North are asking different questions about their QB situation, the Bengals are asking who will win the starting role at LG.  The HC, OC, DC, and ST coach are all back.  Burrow will have his first offseason that is somewhat "normal" compared to the COVID rookie offseason and the rehab offseason a year ago.  While it will sound like a homer pick, I think the Bengals are the class of the AFC North.  

I see it as follows:

Bengals 11-6
Ravens 9-8
Browns 9-8
Steelers 6-11

[*SHRacerX*]

(05-10-2022, 12:27 AM)Emeritus Wrote:
-The Browns had the best offensive line and running --game in the division without Watson.

-The Ravens will be healthy with a hall of the ages in the draft. They got younger and much better with premium talent.

- If the Steelers figure it out at QB and the young weapons adapt quickly then they could be special!
They don't have an offensive line but neither did we and went to a SB.

I'm a die hard Bengals fan but we have to look at everything!

WHO IS OUR LG?

This division is brutal!

I'm sure you meant "haul", but how can you call college players premium talent.  Safety, like every other position in the first round is a 50-50 proposition, history shows us.  Kyle Hamilton is a physical freak in terms of his size, but one of the slower safeties taken in the early rounds.  He has proven zero in this league and Linderbaum, while a fan favorite here, DOES have short arms and while a very good athlete, never had to face guys like DJ Reader at Iowa.  

Teams generally don't get huge impacts from rookies.  Chase was an anomaly.  The Ravens had a nice draft, but I seriously doubt it is their draft that improves the team dramatically.  It will have to be the returning players and better coaching.  

I am also really curious about the young weapons you are eluding to at pitt.  

[TecmoBengals]

Did the Ravens really have a "haul of the ages draft" or are fans just overrating it because their draft aligned with what the online mocks told us were great picks? I'm not dismissing the Ravens draft completely because it was good but I find the hype and praise for it interesting.

Their draft picks will contribute to success in '22 - '23 but the picks won't be the primary cause of their success. The Ravens will return to winning football because they'll presumably be more healthy than last season.

[*SHRacerX*]

(05-09-2022, 11:24 PM)jason Wrote: I think the Browns are our toughest competition in the division. Not sure we're sweeping them. It's gonna be a dog fight... My heart says we'll win, but really all four teams have a shot. I think Pittsburgh is the least viable option of the four though.

Yep.  I wonder what dynamic a team has when a QB that is coming from the outside gets ridiculous money while facing all these charges.  

The Browns lost a lot of games last year due to poor QB play, largely because he was injured.  They feel they have fixed that.  I guess that seems true, but I think it looks really bad the way they structured Watson's deal so his SALARY this year is something like $1 million, so a suspension doesn't hurt him financially.  That seems a lot like an admission and a middle finger to the league.  

I also wonder how the rest of the league would perceive the Browns if he is only suspended four games or so and plays lights out afterward.  That's a part of why I think it could be a longer suspension than most people think.  Like, 10 games.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(05-10-2022, 12:02 AM)leonardfan40 Wrote: We honestly have the best team in the division. It’s ours to lose. All of the teams are at least solid, but we have the best roster.

That said, we were lucky overall health wise last year. The Ravens were unlucky. We had some issues at LB but our depth there showed well. If we get hit with injuries to the wrong player or position group that could easily change who wins the division. All things being equal, we are the best team.

The Browns will be the most interesting. Will Watson get suspended and for how long? How will their WR group perform even if/when Watson plays. How will the locker room mesh? Wasn’t good last year before they added Watson and pissed off Baker (who was still on the team last I checked). They could be real threats this year or a complete laughing stock. Even with Watson they’ll still be a running team that moved on from their stud center in hopes their backup is ready to be THE guy.

Beat me to it...should have read your post before replying to Jason.  I think with Watson, though, they will open things up more with Amari Cooper.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(05-10-2022, 11:10 AM)Sled21 Wrote: There are too many variables to pick with certainty, BUT, let's say all teams finish the season fully healthy. There is not a team in the Division that can hang with the Bengals. I feel like some of you are holding back from this in an effort to keep from being let down. But face it and look at the team. Best QB in the Division- Joe Burrow and it isn't even close. Best wide receiving trio in the division- Chase, Higgins and Boyd, and it isn't even close. Best running back in the division- Nick Chubb, but I'd put Mixon second. Best defense in the Division- Bengals. The entire league could not handle Joe Burrow to Chase last year, and this year Joe will actually have time to throw the ball without running for his life on every play. Chase is in year 2 and Higgins year 3. Mixon will absolutely go off behind Kappa Karras and Collins. We have Ossai returning to rush the passer. Lou has figured out how to contain and shut down Lamar, Mayfield is gone and while they replaced him with Watkins, he is new to the division and who knows how many games he will play. He's as likely to take all that guaranteed money and run as he is to come in a put in the work to win in the AFCN. Steelers have Trubisky, who is underrated, but is nowhere near what they had in the molestor.  Bottom line, I know we won't win them all, but when I look at our upcoming opponent there is no game I look at and see a loss.

This is so true, and so overlooked.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(05-10-2022, 09:34 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I'd take Burrow over Watson, but it is pretty damn close.

Watson has the #2 career passer rating in NFL history despite averaging 51.3 sacks per season as a full time starter.  That's more than Burrow got sacked last year (51).

Over the 4 seasons he played ('17-'20) Watson was #5 among QBs in rushing yards per game (31.1) and rushing tds (17) 

Finally, he won 2 division championships in his 3 years as a full time starter.

Watson did a heck of a lot with a less-than-stellar cast around him.  He has been out for over a year, though, so it will be over two years since he has played.  Not counting him out, but saying it won't be easy.  And the defenses he will face in the AFC North are tougher than the AFC South...

[Stewy]

(05-15-2022, 09:25 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: Yes and I think he won’t succeed under Stefanski

Alrighty.  Fair enough.

[Whatever]

(05-16-2022, 12:03 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Actually what made him seem more effective was the complete and total domination of our defense.  Through just 3 quarters the Ravens had 38 points, 463 yards, and 22 first downs.  They were 10 of 13 on third downs.  Jackson was having his way with our defense.  He had ran for 6 first downs (2 on 3rd down) and had thrown for 5 more first downs (2 on 3rd down, 1 on 4th down).  He was embarrassing us.

It's really not impressive for a QB to account for 1/2 of his team's first downs and less than half of their 3rd down conversations.  

[Joelist]

Remember the Rats were not all injured in the first game - that we won 41-17. Jackson played and we handled him easily. This is the game where the Rats were crowing about Humphries and how elite he is and Chase made him look like a scrub repeatedly.

[TecmoBengals]

(05-16-2022, 12:56 PM)Joelist Wrote: Remember the Rats were not all injured in the first game - that we won 41-17. Jackson played and we handled him easily. This is the game where the Rats were crowing about Humphries and how elite he is and Chase made him look like a scrub repeatedly.

Weren't they without Dobbins (RB1) and Peters??

[fredtoast]

(05-16-2022, 12:47 PM)Whatever Wrote: It's really not impressive for a QB to account for 1/2 of his team's first downs and less than half of their 3rd down conversations.  

It is when his team has more first downs through just three quarters than the average team gets in an entire game.

Let me make my point clear for those of you who missed it.  .  .  It is a complete joke to try and praise Lou's DC abilities by citing what his defense did in that game.  It is like praising the captain of the Titanic because he dressed so nicely his last night on the job.

[KillerGoose]

(05-16-2022, 12:56 PM)Joelist Wrote: Remember the Rats were not all injured in the first game - that we won 41-17. Jackson played and we handled him easily. This is the game where the Rats were crowing about Humphries and how elite he is and Chase made him look like a scrub repeatedly.

This isn't quite true. The Ravens were already struggling with injuries by that game. Here is their injury report for that game...

• Nick Boyle - Depth TE
• Ben Cleveland - Rookie, rotational G
• J.K. Dobbins - Rotational RB (Quite talented, averaged 6 YPC on 134 carries in 2020)
• Khalil Dorsey - End of roster DB
• Gus Edwards - Another rotational RB, averaged 5 YPC on 144 carries in 2020
• L.J. Fort - Starting LB
• Daelin Hayes - End of roster LB
• Xavier Kelly - End of roster DR
• Latavius Murray - Starting RB
• Marcus Peters - Starting CB, 2x AP, 4x Pro Bowl
• Ronnie Stanley - Starting T
• Sammy Watkins - Starting WR
• Derek Wolfe - Starting DL
  

By my count, they were down eight major contributors by that week seven game. 

[fredtoast]

(05-16-2022, 12:56 PM)Joelist Wrote: Remember the Rats were not all injured in the first game - that we won 41-17. Jackson played and we handled him easily. 

By the first time we played them they had already lost

Starting OT Ronnie Stanley 
Starting RB J.K. Dobbins
Staring RB Gus Edwards
Starting CB Marcus Peters
Starting DL Derek Wolfe
Starting LB L.J. Fort

Also starting WR Rashod Bateman was playing in just his second NFL game against the Bengals due to a preseason injury and starting OG Tyre Phillips played for the first time in 5 weeks after an injury on opening day.

Ravens were absolutely killed by injuries last year. 

[THE PISTONS]

(05-15-2022, 08:00 PM)felis tigris Wrote: I have us going 4-2 on balance, based on the following assumptions:


Pittsburgh (home)    90% chance of winning - I know that looks high, but Mitch Trubisky, their defense and at home, it might honestly be pessimistic to say Burrow & Co only win 9 out of 10.
Pittsburgh (away)     65% chance of winning - all of the above, but their field, I think Bengals take nearly 2 out of 3
Baltimore (home)     75% chance of winning - I know they were injury-riddled the 2nd game last season, but Bengals thumped them when they were healthy as well
Baltimore (away)     50% chance of winning - as above, I believe they've figured out how to slow, if not outright contain, Jackson, though this is probably the most optimistic projection
Cleveland (home)     60% chance of winning - these are pretty much the "toss-up" games - I give us an edge at home, and Browns the same at their stadium
Cleveland (away)     40% chance of winning


All of this yields an average expected number of wins of 3.8, round to 4-2


Running those odds over 200 iterations yielded:
6-0       8.0% of the time
5-1     25.5% of the time
4-2     35.0% of the time
3-3     19.5% of the time
2-4       9.5% of the time
1-5       2.5% of the time
0-6       0.0% of the time

It feels like the Steelers always play us tough no matter what injuries they have. Like I fully expect us to beat them twice.

But, if we played them 10 times...I doubt we win all 10.

[Joelist]

The Rats played othyer teams with those same injuries (which were NOT crucial players) and won - we spanked them. Why is it so hard for our fans on this forum to actually say "we are better than the Rats"? We didn't just sweep them we ran up insane offense on them:

82 points - 1095 yards of offense - 7 TD passes only 1 INT

Then there were our 2 Stealer wins:

65 points - 638 yards of offense - 4 passing TD 2 INT (ironically we had worse offense against the Stealers but still effective).

The Stains games were the outliers.. One was a true flop and a true bad game by Burrow before he really shook out the rust and hesitancy on the knee. The other was more a preseason type game as we rested most of our starters.

[KillerGoose]

(05-16-2022, 05:56 PM)Joelist Wrote: The Rats played othyer teams with those same injuries (which were NOT crucial players) and won - we spanked them. Why is it so hard for our fans on this forum to actually say "we are better than the Rats"? We didn't just sweep them we ran up insane offense on them:

82 points - 1095 yards of offense - 7 TD passes only 1 INT

Then there were our 2 Stealer wins:

65 points - 638 yards of offense - 4 passing TD 2 INT (ironically we had worse offense against the Stealers but still effective).

The Stains games were the outliers.. One was a true flop and a true bad game by Burrow before he really shook out the rust and hesitancy on the knee. The other was more a preseason type game as we rested most of our starters.

You don't think that an All-Pro CB, their top three RBs, starting LB, starting WR and starting DL were crucial? That's a bit shocking, but you are also quite vocal about not believing Joe Burrow is the guy for Cincinnati, so it shouldn't be too shocking I guess. 

Perhaps I am wrong here, but if Cincinnati was missing Chido, Mixon/Perine/Evans, Boyd, Pratt and Hill and went out to get absolutely flogged on the football field...I don't think we'd ever hear the end of it on these boards. All of this to say, I do believe we are better than the Ravens. Cincinnati is a genuinely good team, the best in the division by my eyes. The Ravens are also a good team, though, and to act like they didn't just have horrible injury luck is putting the veil over your own eyes. 

[Joelist]

If you're speaking of Marcus Peters, you need to look at the whole career. His All Pro days were in 2015 and 2016 with the Chiefs. After 2017 his declining production coupled with discipline issues led to the Chiefs trading him. On the Rams he did not play well at all and with the Rats he has been up and down. They don't even think he is the important CB - to them it is Humphries who Chase abused.

Also I think you are thinking of a different poster - I have not been quite vocal saying Burrow is not the guy for Cincinnati. One time a long time ago I said he needed to elevate his play to be the guy - and he did.