Games against losing teams last year

[fredtoast]

I saw a comment about how last year the Bengals played the most games in the league against teams with losing records (10).  The argument was that they made the playoffs because of their soft schedule.

I looked it up and it is correct that the Bengals and the Packers played 10 of their 17 games against losing teams and that was the highest in the league.  But right behind them was the Rams at 9.  But here is an even bigger detail that was not mentioned.  The Bengals actually played like crap against weak teams.  They were only 6-4.  The only 3 teams in the league that lost more than 4 games to losing teams were the 3 worst teams in the league (Lions, Jags, and Giants). I realize one of our losses was the "exhibition game" against the Browns in week 18, but we also had to come from behind in the 4th quarter to win on a last second FG against the Jags.  Meanwhile the Rams were 9-0 against losing teams.

So, on one hand I was glad to be able to show that the Bengals did not "luck into" the playoffs because of a weak schedule.  But on the other hand this opened my eyes to an issue we need to address.  If we are going to move from "good" to "great" we have to stop coming out flat against inferior teams.  Instead of just making the playoffs we need to be thinking "home field advantage".  We can't take any games off just because we think we are the better team.

[George Cantstandya]

Yep losing games they should win has been mentioned during and after last season as something that needs corrected. It was especially evident during the loss against the Jets. This is what I posted last month in another thread.

(04-18-2022, 02:29 PM)George Cantstandya Wrote: It certainly isn't an easy road for the Bengals this year. But championship caliber teams will compete given a tough schedule. If the Bengals are deserving of repeating last year's success they will win those tough games and hopefully stop losing the games they should have won like the game against the Jets last year.

[KillerGoose]

I agree. The Bengals took care of business enough to get into the playoffs and had a winning record against winning/losing teams alike. They were fortunate that their schedule was as easy as it was, though, or they may have missed the playoffs entirely. Against winning teams, they went 4-3 (57%), a worse record than their 6-4 against losing teams (as would be expected). I think a good description of the 2021 Bengals is inconsistent. 

This team has the talent to compete with any team in the league. They just need to be able to come out and edge out those games against lower tier teams. Especially this season, because they won't have much margin for error based on early assessments.

[Soonerpeace]

(05-14-2022, 12:31 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I saw a comment about how last year the Bengals played the most games in the league against teams with losing records (10).  The argument was that they made the playoffs because of their soft schedule.

I looked it up and it is correct that the Bengals and the Packers played 10 of their 17 games against losing teams and that was the highest in the league.  But right behind them was the Rams at 9.  But here is an even bigger detail that was not mentioned.  The Bengals actually played like crap against weak teams.  They were only 6-4.  The only 3 teams in the league that lost more than 4 games to losing teams were the 3 worst teams in the league (Lions, Jags, and Giants). I realize one of our losses was the "exhibition game" against the Browns in week 18, but we also had to come from behind in the 4th quarter to win on a last second FG against the Jags.  Meanwhile the Rams were 9-0 against losing teams.

So, on one hand I was glad to be able to show that the Bengals did not "luck into" the playoffs because of a weak schedule.  But on the other hand this opened my eyes to an issue we need to address.  If we are going to move from "good" to "great" we have to stop coming out flat against inferior teams.  Instead of just making the playoffs we need to be thinking "home field advantage".  We can't take any games off just because we think we are the better team.

T
I started a thread in this vain the other day. http://thebengalsboard.com/Thread-Culture-as-we-become-the-hunted

Yours is focusing on beating the teams we should beat. The staff had a tough task turning things around. Equally tough will be transitioning to being the hunted. A big part of that is indeed beating the teams you are supposed to beat. The culture of establishing a winning attitude is now a culture of taking care of business. It doesn’t get any easier

[phil413]

Good point. It comes down to the great but heartbreaking run stirring up a killer instinct from these guys. Like 13 wins isn't enough, being up 14 at half isn't enough, ect...

With the run blocking improvements, even if they play "conservative" they should still be making ground and opening up Burrow for his playmakers. They should want to go to NY and destroy the Jets, not because they're mad at Mike White but because they want to dominate on the way to a Super Bowl.

[PDub80]

(05-14-2022, 12:31 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I saw a comment about how last year the Bengals played the most games in the league against teams with losing records (10).  The argument was that they made the playoffs because of their soft schedule.

I looked it up and it is correct that the Bengals and the Packers played 10 of their 17 games against losing teams and that was the highest in the league.  But right behind them was the Rams at 9.  But here is an even bigger detail that was not mentioned.  The Bengals actually played like crap against weak teams.  They were only 6-4.  The only 3 teams in the league that lost more than 4 games to losing teams were the 3 worst teams in the league (Lions, Jags, and Giants). I realize one of our losses was the "exhibition game" against the Browns in week 18, but we also had to come from behind in the 4th quarter to win on a last second FG against the Jags.  Meanwhile the Rams were 9-0 against losing teams.

So, on one hand I was glad to be able to show that the Bengals did not "luck into" the playoffs because of a weak schedule.  But on the other hand this opened my eyes to an issue we need to address.  If we are going to move from "good" to "great" we have to stop coming out flat against inferior teams.  Instead of just making the playoffs we need to be thinking "home field advantage".  We can't take any games off just because we think we are the better team.

To start the season, the Bengals had the 5th toughest schedule and were the 5th youngest team on paper. In a league where there are only tiny differences (if any) between the worst teams and the best teams - along with major injuries being significant influencers of weekly results - strength of schedule is meaningless, IMO. This isn't the NCAA where teams get to select a bunch of really weak out of conference opponents that have no business being on the field or court with them. 

Any given Sunday isn't just a crappy movie.... It's a real thing due to the razor thin margins of difference between teams in the NFL. It's a unique league schedule wise because of it.

WHEN you play a team matters more than who the team actually is in the NFL. Injuries, bye week, travel schedule, etc. all matter greatly.

[Joelist]

Let's also remember that last year especially earlier on Burrow was not fully himself yet - he was still shaking off rust and getting back in his groove after the injury. Without this we win the Bears game and the Packers game and possibly Cleveland Game #1. It happens.

[CarolinaBengalFanGuy]

(05-14-2022, 12:43 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I agree. The Bengals took care of business enough to get into the playoffs and had a winning record against winning/losing teams alike. They were fortunate that their schedule was as easy as it was, though, or they may have missed the playoffs entirely. Against winning teams, they went 4-3 (57%), a worse record than their 6-4 against losing teams (as would be expected). I think a good description of the 2021 Bengals is inconsistent. 

This team has the talent to compete with any team in the league. They just need to be able to come out and edge out those games against lower tier teams. Especially this season, because they won't have much margin for error based on early assessments.

I feel like I should take solace in losing the super bowl since we really shouldn’t have been there last season, but it’s so hard to get back and the AFC is just absolutely brutal for the foreseeable future.

[reuben.ahmed]

Bengals played the 3rd hardest schedule last year.

"Their opponents combined to go 153-133-2 in 2021, good for a .535 winning percentage, the third-best opponents' winning percentage in the NFL behind only the Rams and Cardinals."

[reuben.ahmed]

(05-14-2022, 04:20 PM)CarolinaBengalFanGuy Wrote: I feel like I should take solace in losing the super bowl since we really shouldn’t have been there last season, but it’s so hard to get back and the AFC is just absolutely brutal for the foreseeable future.

Frankly it seems like Bills fans are still reeling from their loss, it's easy to troll them. I don't think we're as reeling after losing the super bowl. Allen is good, he also had one of the best defenses in the league, and we made it 2 stops farther. That irritates them. Their response is "your kicker had more points than your QB!" and "we beat he chiefs in week 5". lol.

[KillerGoose]

(05-14-2022, 05:05 PM)reuben.ahmed Wrote: Bengals played the 3rd hardest schedule last year.

"Their opponents combined to go 153-133-2 in 2021, good for a .535 winning percentage, the third-best opponents' winning percentage in the NFL behind only the Rams and Cardinals."

If you use raw record, then yes. However, there is a better way to try to assess SOS, in my opinion. I like the SOS metric that PFR provides. It is looking at your opponents margins of victory and who they have played to get there. Long story short, a lot of the Bengals opponents had mediocre records but didn’t really play tough schedules themselves.

By this metric, the Bengals had the easiest schedule in the league. I’m not entirely certain that I agree with that, but I don’t believe that the Bengals had the third toughest schedule by any stretch. The answer is probably somewhere in between what we are discussing here. I think Cincinnati had a fairly easy schedule. None of the divisional teams were very good except for Baltimore, who was eaten alive by injuries. Then you add in teams like the Jets, Lions, Jaguars, and Bears and it starts looking pretty unimpressive.

I think they showed out well against the tough teams, aside from the Chargers. They played GB and SF tough while outright beating KC.

[fredtoast]

(05-14-2022, 05:05 PM)reuben.ahmed Wrote: Bengals played the 3rd hardest schedule last year.

"Their opponents combined to go 153-133-2 in 2021, good for a .535 winning percentage, the third-best opponents' winning percentage in the NFL behind only the Rams and Cardinals."

Math is way wrong

Last year our opponents went 135-152-2  .471%

You must be looking at the 2022 schedule.

[EatonFan]

In the playoffs they beat the #5, #1, #2 seeds. That's all that matters.

[Sled21]

When they rank schedules, it's by how teams finished the year before. Last year, at the start of the season, even though we played the 4th place schedule, we were tied for 6th toughest schedule based on opponents records the year prior. This year we play a 1st place schedule. This is all meaningless though, as most teams go through a good bit of transition from one year to the next and don't have the same roster.

[Mike M (the other one)]

(05-14-2022, 05:58 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Math is way wrong

Last year our opponents went 135-152-2  .471%

You must be looking at the 2022 schedule.

Not sure where your numbers are coming from Fred.
SOS is always based on previous years' Opp final regular season record.

Opp 2020 regular season record: 144-128, we had the 6th hardest for 2021.
Opp 2021 regular season record: 155-133-2, giving us the 3rd hardest for 2022

[KillerGoose]

(05-14-2022, 09:50 PM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: Not sure where your numbers are coming from Fred.
SOS is always based on previous years' Opp final regular season record.

Opp 2020 regular season record: 144-128, we had the 6th hardest for 2021.
Opp 2021 regular season record: 155-133-2, giving us the 3rd hardest for 2022

He’s using the actual data from the season. It doesn’t quite make sense to use numbers from 2020 to judge how difficult the season was in 2021. You use that as a barometer before the season starts, but once you have the data, you use that.

[Mike M (the other one)]

(05-14-2022, 10:24 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: He’s using the actual data from the season. It doesn’t quite make sense to use numbers from 2020 to judge how difficult the season was in 2021. You use that as a barometer before the season starts, but once you have the data, you use that.

Link to this data for all teams,
We gave our 2021 opps 10 losses.

So i want to see how "easy" other winning teams had it.

[BengalBob]

Regardless of strength of schedule, they were a young team learning how to win on the fly.

With a season of success under their belts, I believe they will be much better against supposed weaker competition. There are no gimmies in the NFL, but they will be much better at putting teams away with a rebuilt offensive line, improved defense, and another year of playcalling experience under Taylor's belt.

[KillerGoose]

(05-15-2022, 12:00 AM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: Link to this data for all teams,
We gave our 2021 opps 10 losses.

So i want to see how "easy" other winning teams had it.

The data has to aggregated. I went ahead and manually did this for you and anyone else who is interested. Amongst the league, Cincinnati had the 29th ranked schedule based on opponent winning percentage. Amongst teams with a winning record, Cincinnati was tied for 15th out of 18 total teams. I will post some screenshots below.





You can also use PFR's SOS metric. It is grading each team by what their margin of victory is and how tough their opponents schedules have been. It is attempting to assess the quality of team and assign a number to them. Using this metric, Cincinnati had the easiest schedule in the entire league. I've mentioned before that I don't think this is the case, but they certainly did not have a difficult schedule. It was a soft schedule no matter how you look at it. 

[grampahol]

(05-14-2022, 05:06 PM)reuben.ahmed Wrote: Frankly it seems like Bills fans are still reeling from their loss, it's easy to troll them. I don't think we're as reeling after losing the super bowl. Allen is good, he also had one of the best defenses in the league, and we made it 2 stops farther. That irritates them. Their response is "your kicker had more points than your QB!" and "we beat he chiefs in week 5". lol.

The response to those claims about beating them in week 5 should be: That and $.05 will get you a nickles worth of really sh*tty coffee..