Burrow's interception issue over his career

[Stewy]

(05-17-2022, 10:11 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: You can actually see Burrow's improvement as the season goes on by looking at this chart I made, which is plotting his EPA per attempt ranking in the league. His early season is volatile, very spiky. It then starts flattening out around week 11. In this chart, high is bad and low is good...
*snip*

What is EPA?

[Mike M (the other one)]

(05-17-2022, 01:55 PM)Stewy Wrote: What is EPA?

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/8379024/nfl-explaining-expected-points-metric

[fredtoast]

(05-17-2022, 11:58 AM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: Back to the topic at hand.
Game 8 Carman was finally benched, 

By "benched" you mean "driven off the field on a cart", right?

[KillerGoose]

(05-17-2022, 01:55 PM)Stewy Wrote: What is EPA?

It's an advanced metric, standing for "Expected Points Added". It is essentially using the current game state to figure out what a teams expected points are, which can be calculated by having data such as field position, stadium type, time remaining in half and a few others. Expected points is exactly as it sounds - under the input conditions, what is the team's current expectation for scoring points?

The added part is just figuring out what kind of difference the play produced in this expected points total. So, if a team has the ball at their own 10 yard line on first down, they may have an expected points value of one. Let's say Burrow throws a 15 yard pass and they now have first down on their own 25. Their expected points value is now two. Burrow's pass has an EPA of one, as his pass added one expected point. It's the best metric for evaluating QBs due to the correlation it has to team success, which is very strong within the context of football. Passer rating is second. You can also use it to evaluate running backs, and offenses/defenses as whole. 

[Big_Ern]

Can we bring back the Jamar Chase super thread for his sophomore season? Going to be electric

[Stewy]

(05-17-2022, 02:10 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: It's an advanced metric, standing for "Expected Points Added". It is essentially using the current game state to figure out what a teams expected points are, which can be calculated by having data such as field position, stadium type, time remaining in half and a few others. Expected points is exactly as it sounds - under the input conditions, what is the team's current expectation for scoring points?

The added part is just figuring out what kind of difference the play produced in this expected points total. So, if a team has the ball at their own 10 yard line on first down, they may have an expected points value of one. Let's say Burrow throws a 15 yard pass and they now have first down on their own 25. Their expected points value is now two. Burrow's pass has an EPA of one, as his pass added one expected point. It's the best metric for evaluating QBs due to the correlation it has to team success, which is very strong within the context of football. Passer rating is second. You can also use it to evaluate running backs, and offenses/defenses as whole. 

So with this context, can you explain why your graph is cumulative and why lower is better?

Thanks.

[KillerGoose]

(05-17-2022, 03:17 PM)Stewy Wrote: So with this context, can you explain why your graph is cumulative and why lower is better?

Thanks.

I am using his season ranking, not the raw value of his average. I thought this provided more evidence of his rocky start and then gradual improvement than just using the raw values. The cumulative aspect was just answering that I am using all values up until that point in the season. So, instead of providing the ranking of his performance for that individual week, I am saying...

This is Burrow's ranking for weeks <= 3...
This is Burrow's ranking for weeks <= 4...

So on, and so forth. By the end of the season, Burrow had the highest EPA per attempt in the league. 

[Stewy]

(05-17-2022, 03:22 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I am using his season ranking, not the raw value of his average. I thought this provided more evidence of his rocky start and then gradual improvement than just using the raw values. The cumulative aspect was just answering that I am using all values up until that point in the season. So, instead of providing the ranking of his performance for that individual week, I am saying...

This is Burrow's ranking for weeks <= 3...
This is Burrow's ranking for weeks <= 4...

So on, and so forth. By the end of the season, Burrow had the highest EPA per attempt in the league. 

Yay!  I understand now.  Thanks!

[KillerGoose]

(05-17-2022, 03:26 PM)Stewy Wrote: Yay!  I understand now.  Thanks!

Yep, you got it!

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-17-2022, 10:11 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: You can actually see Burrow's improvement as the season goes on by looking at this chart I made, which is plotting his EPA per attempt ranking in the league. His early season is volatile, very spiky. It then starts flattening out around week 11. In this chart, high is bad and low is good...

(05-17-2022, 10:40 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: Yep, I got you. It is his cumulative total, tracking week to week. 

Great job KillerGoose. Fits exactly what I saw last season. As Nicomo and others said, that injury clearly affected Joe in a bad
way as that injury does to every QB and player. Once he got comfortable around the Raiders game (was that week 11?) he had
his legs back and looked like his college self.

I just cannot imagine how good he can be with a good O-line in front of him and a running game with these weapons!

[TheFan]

(05-17-2022, 11:58 AM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: I'm not trying to convince anyone, nor do i seek anyone else's approval.

You are right on that last part. Seen pages of threads going back and forth with certain people trying so hard to be right by disputing the many variables that are part of the game by being one-track minded.


Back to the topic at hand.
Game 8 Carman was finally benched, Game 9, Hopkins also started to improve.
While the OL was still not good, it was at least better, and this also coincides with JB's improvement as well.

The question going forward, is just how much better can JB get with an even better OL??

Joe Burrow played significantly worse, stat wise, in the 4 games following Carman not starting compared to the 5 games he did start. Carman didn't start the first 2 games of the season which Burrow also played significantly worse in. 

I get Carman gets a lot of hate and some is warranted but you talk about stats yet are completely wrong if you actually look at them. The Oline and Burrow both played worse (sack wise) with Carman out of the line up. 

In games started by Carmam, Burrow was sacked 0, 1, 3, 2, and 1 times. The other 11 games he was only sacked under 3 times once. 

Burrow had over a 100 rating in 4 of the 5 games Jackson started and only over 100 in 6 others. Jackson took over for Spain the 2nd half of the KC game...we all know how that went.

[Mike M (the other one)]

(05-17-2022, 10:17 PM)TheFan Wrote: Joe Burrow played significantly worse, stat wise, in the 4 games following Carman not starting compared to the 5 games he did start. Carman didn't start the first 2 games of the season which Burrow also played significantly worse in. 

I get Carman gets a lot of hate and some is warranted but you talk about stats yet are completely wrong if you actually look at them. The Oline and Burrow both played worse (sack wise) with Carman out of the line up. 

In games started by Carmam, Burrow was sacked 0, 1, 3, 2, and 1 times. The other 11 games he was only sacked under 3 times once. 

Browns, Raiders, Steelers, Chargers and 49'ers.
Steelers were ranked 15th on pass rush and the worst of that 5, the others were all top 8


Ofc Ravens and Chiefs... (don't count 2nd Clev game, JB didn't play) were pretty good too.
Bronco's pass rush was one of the worst last year.

I don't hate Carman, i just don't trust him. Once he shows consistency and is over his back problems then he should be good.

[TheFan]

(05-17-2022, 10:45 PM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: Browns, Raiders, Steelers, Chargers and 49'ers.
Steelers were ranked 15th on pass rush and the worst of that 5, the others were all top 8


Ofc Ravens and Chiefs... (don't count 2nd Clev game, JB didn't play) were pretty good too.
Bronco's pass rush was one of the worst last year.

I don't hate Carman, i just don't trust him. Once he shows consistency and is over his back problems then he should be good.

So what you're saying is there's nothing indicating Carman being take out of the linement had anything to do with Joes "improved play" that statistically wasn't improved. 

Burrow was much better in the 5 games Carman played than the 4 games following. 

[KillerGoose]

(05-17-2022, 10:45 PM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: Browns, Raiders, Steelers, Chargers and 49'ers.
Steelers were ranked 15th on pass rush and the worst of that 5, the others were all top 8


Ofc Ravens and Chiefs... (don't count 2nd Clev game, JB didn't play) were pretty good too.
Bronco's pass rush was one of the worst last year.

I don't hate Carman, i just don't trust him. Once he shows consistency and is over his back problems then he should be good.

Where are you getting your metrics, or what metric are you using? The Steelers were first in the league in sacks and 7th in pressure percentage. Here are the metrics for each team...

• Steelers (1st in sacks, 7th pressure percentage)
• Browns (9th in sacks, 17th in pressure percentage)
• Raiders (T-20th in sacks, 15th in pressure percentage)
• Chargers (T-20th in sacks, 12th in pressure percentage)
• 49ers (T-5th in sacks, 20th in pressure percentage)
• Ravens (T-22nd in sacks, 24th in pressure percentage)
• Chiefs (29th in sacks, 5th in pressure percentage)
  

This is where I am pulling my data.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-17-2022, 10:17 PM)TheFan Wrote: Joe Burrow played significantly worse, stat wise, in the 4 games following Carman not starting compared to the 5 games he did start. Carman didn't start the first 2 games of the season which Burrow also played significantly worse in. 

I get Carman gets a lot of hate and some is warranted but you talk about stats yet are completely wrong if you actually look at them. The Oline and Burrow both played worse (sack wise) with Carman out of the line up. 

In games started by Carmam, Burrow was sacked 0, 1, 3, 2, and 1 times. The other 11 games he was only sacked under 3 times once. 

Burrow had over a 100 rating in 4 of the 5 games Jackson started and only over 100 in 6 others. Jackson took over for Spain the 2nd half of the KC game...we all know how that went.

This is what I saw. Mike M (the other one) must have a bias against Jackson Carman I guess. I might have a bias for him though.

Carman for damn sure is better than Adeniji even when he is hurt IMO.

Must of been the only reason besides penalties that Adeniji started over Carman in the Playoffs.

I know it was Spain that whiffed on the block on the last play of the SB but I bet we win the game if Carman started over Adeniji
and we stuck more to the run game with Mixon. But hey, crying over spilt milk here. Still think the biggest mistake in the Playoffs
was starting Adeniji over Carman and the only way I am wrong is if Carman was SIGNIFICANTLY MORE INJURED THAN ADENIJI.

Jackson Carman wasn't near as good as I expected him to be as a rookie but he was light years better than this other dude and 
played great filling in for Spain in the game that won us the Division and at the same time got us into the Playoffs and let us rest
our starters against the Browns.

[Mike M (the other one)]

(05-17-2022, 10:52 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Where are you getting your metrics, or what metric are you using? The Steelers were first in the league in sacks and 7th in pressure percentage. Here are the metrics for each team...

• Steelers (1st in sacks, 7th pressure percentage)
• Browns (9th in sacks, 17th in pressure percentage)
• Raiders (T-20th in sacks, 15th in pressure percentage)
• Chargers (T-20th in sacks, 12th in pressure percentage)
• 49ers (T-5th in sacks, 20th in pressure percentage)
• Ravens (T-22nd in sacks, 24th in pressure percentage)
• Chiefs (29th in sacks, 5th in pressure percentage)
  

This is where I am pulling my data.

I used team pass rush win rate.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/32176833/2021-nfl-pass-rushing-run-stopping-blocking-leaderboard-win-rate-rankings

To me it shows who is consistently getting pressure on passing downs.

(05-17-2022, 11:19 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: This is what I saw. Mike M (the other one) must have a bias against Jackson Carman I guess. I might have a bias for him though.

Carman for damn sure is better than Adeniji even when he is hurt IMO.

Must of been the only reason besides penalties that Adeniji started over Carman in the Playoffs.

I know it was Spain that whiffed on the block on the last play of the SB but I bet we win the game if Carman started over Adeniji
and we stuck more to the run game with Mixon. But hey, crying over spilt milk here. Still think the biggest mistake in the Playoffs
was starting Adeniji over Carman and the only way I am wrong is if Carman was SIGNIFICANTLY MORE INJURED THAN ADENIJI.

Jackson Carman wasn't near as good as I expected him to be as a rookie but he was light years better than this other dude and 
played great filling in for Spain in the game that won us the Division and at the same time got us into the Playoffs and let us rest
our starters against the Browns.

Again, no Carman hate. i Liked the pick, thought we could have done better based on who was left (Creed).

My problems here is 
a: back injury issues
b: Bengals moving him to RG when dude pretty much only played LT in his college career and expected him to be a starter there.

To me it reeks of Bengals setting him up to fail.
Nothing personal towards Carman, but moving players around like that has been a big pet peeve of mine that the Bengals seem to do often.
I can understand RT to RG/LT to LG, that's keeping them on the same side.

if you are right handed, how easy is it for you to switch everything you do to your left hand (and vice versa). Some can handle it, but most can't, it takes a re-wiring to make that switch.

[jorev5]

I don't mind a repeated thread topic. I probably dont get to read every reply, especially when it gets a lot of pages of replies. Between the official bengals site, twitter (which Im starting to get tired of with all the arguing between AFC north fans) this site, and podcasts, it is difficult to get to every thread.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-19-2022, 09:45 PM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: Again, no Carman hate. i Liked the pick, thought we could have done better based on who was left (Creed).

My problems here is 
a: back injury issues
b: Bengals moving him to RG when dude pretty much only played LT in his college career and expected him to be a starter there.

To me it reeks of Bengals setting him up to fail.
Nothing personal towards Carman, but moving players around like that has been a big pet peeve of mine that the Bengals seem to do often.
I can understand RT to RG/LT to LG, that's keeping them on the same side.

if you are right handed, how easy is it for you to switch everything you do to your left hand (and vice versa). Some can handle it, but most can't, it takes a re-wiring to make that switch.

Okay, well we do not disagree then. The injury and the switch are also my only problems with Carman.

He was clearly having problems with his hand placement moving to the right side. You could see a difference once he moved 
back to the left side. I think we should see significant improvement in his play this year having an entire year to prepare back 
at where he is comfortable. That is, if the back injury is behind him.

[Housh]

(05-16-2022, 10:07 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Some fans did not like it in 2020 when I kept reminding them that Burrow's passer rating was 24th in the league.  But at the same time I always pointed out that as a rookie behind a terrible O-line Burrrow had the second lowest int percentage in the league (1.2%).  That is a ridiculous number for rookie.  It is also a ridiculous number for a QB with no running game who knows he has to carry the offense.

So I did not really panic when Burrow came out throwing all those picks last year.  I knew that if he could not read defenses he would never have had a 1.2% interception percentage as a rookie.

But a big reason that after 14 weeks we were just 7-6 and struggling to stay in the playoff race was that Joe was leading the league in interceptions (14).  But once he relaxed and stopped trying to force too many high risk passes we caught fire.  Here is an interesting breakdown of Joe's career.

First 11 games..........  5 ints
Next 11 games.......... 14 ints
Last 8 games.............  2 ints


I don't think we have anything to worry about Burrow coming out throwing a bunch of picks.

What a ride those last 8 games were.


Dude was gifted with ball placement. Even his 50/50 balls seemed like 80/20 balls because of where Burrow would place passes.

[TheFan]

(05-20-2022, 11:34 PM)Housh Wrote: What a ride those last 8 games were.


Dude was gifted with ball placement. Even his 50/50 balls seemed like 80/20 balls because of where Burrow would place passes.

Chase, Higgins, Boyd, and the rest of the boys also had a bit to play in it