Making the playoffs with 10 or fewer wins

[fredtoast]

From '00 through '20 (21 years of 16 games season and 12 playoff teams) a little over a third (36%) of the teams that made the playoffs had 10 wins or fewer. Less than half of those teams (45%) returned to the playoffs the next season. Vegas and the media experts know this and hold it against the Bengals.

But on the other hand, a third of the time (7 times in 21 years) a team that made the playoffs with 10 wins or less made it all the way to the Super Bowl the following season, and four times the team that WON the Super Bowl had made the playoffs the previous season with 10 or fewer wins ('02 Bucs, '07 Giants, '08 Steelers, '21 Rams).

All we have to do is stay reasonably healthy and we should be back.

[TheCincinnatiKid]

Think the context is important here too, specifically in respect of the Bengals. We clearly overachieved expectations last year, not sure too many would've had us winning 10 games before the season, let alone taking the division etc. This year was more likely expected to be our push.

And yet we're here now with a Superbowl run under our belts, and a very active FA to go with it. Most of our key guys (particularly on offence) are still new to the league, and so the hope is that they kick on development-wise as well.

Of course, nothing is linear in terms of progression in the NFL, and a bunch of other teams got better as well. But on paper the 10 win Bengals from last year should be a better team this year. On paper we're clearly in the conversation when it comes to teams who can win the Superbowl next year.

[Soonerpeace]

(05-22-2022, 08:41 AM)TheCincinnatiKid Wrote: Think the context is important here too, specifically in respect of the Bengals. We clearly overachieved expectations last year, not sure too many would've had us winning 10 games before the season, let alone taking the division etc. This year was more likely expected to be our push.

And yet we're here now with a Superbowl run under our belts, and a very active FA to go with it. Most of our key guys (particularly on offence) are still new to the league, and so the hope is that they kick on development-wise as well.

Of course, nothing is linear in terms of progression in the NFL, and a bunch of other teams got better as well. But on paper the 10 win Bengals from last year should be a better team this year. On paper we're clearly in the conversation when it comes to teams who can win the Superbowl next year.

Coach Taylor has said it 1000 times. The first goal is winning the division. What they did on defense in the draft seemed to zero in on that. Baltimore from numerous fronts had a great draft. Some say it was great but others say it didn’t really address their needs. Regardless beating Baltimore is as important as it gets.

[HarleyDog]

(05-22-2022, 09:08 AM)Soonerpeace Wrote:  Regardless beating Baltimore is as important as it gets.

Are we passed the point that a 2 win season against Pittsburgh was success?   There is nothing more satisfying to me than a win over the stoolers. Although, from the view of winning the division, I totally agree. 

[*michaelsean*]

They would have rolled the week 18 Cleveland team if they had played their starters.

[TheCincinnatiKid]

(05-22-2022, 09:08 AM)Soonerpeace Wrote: Coach Taylor has said it 1000 times. The first goal is winning the division. What they did on defense in the draft seemed to zero in on that. Baltimore from numerous fronts had a great draft. Some say it was great but others say it didn’t really address their needs. Regardless beating Baltimore is as important as it gets.

You would think they're most likely to be the main competitor for the divison. I never rule out Pittsburgh as they always seem to get competitive. Cleveland... who really know, but I think Watson makes them a good team if he is what he was in Houston. Not necessarily division winners good.

You'd also imagine Baltimore really want to give it to us after the pastings we gave them last year. We know Burrow's big game against them 2nd time round did not sit well with the Ravens. That's what happens in this league and this division though, you have to be able to handle teams who are coming right for you. 

I'd hope we take a step forward this year and are in the running for the first round bye, which in turn would mean we win the division. Ultimately, I don't really care what seed we are, as long as we make it in and are battle ready for the playoffs.

[*SHRacerX*]

(05-21-2022, 11:50 PM)fredtoast Wrote: From '00 through '20 (21 years of 16 games season and 12 playoff teams) a little over a third (36%) of the teams that made the playoffs had 10 wins or fewer.  Less than half of those teams (45%) returned to the playoffs the next season.  Vegas and the media experts know this and hold it against the Bengals.

But on the other hand, a third of the time (7 times in 21 years) a team that made the playoffs with 10 wins or less made it all the way to the Super Bowl the following season, and four times the team that WON the Super Bowl had made the playoffs the previous season with 10 or fewer wins ('02 Bucs, '07 Giants, '08 Steelers, '21 Rams).

All we have to do is stay reasonably healthy and we should be back.

A lot of us right now will poo poo the percentages about teams that lose the Super Bowl not even returning to the playoffs and with good reason.  So many times, those teams are broken up for a variety of reasons.  They lose top notch coordinators (Bengals didn't).   They lose top notch talent to FA (Bengals didn't).  Their schedule is much tougher (TBD).  

It is easy for us to dismiss the historical numbers, but those are the trends of the teams in our situation in the recent past.  

Personally, I think of the team now vs. the team that struggled so badly against the Bears and I think how the offense is light years ahead of that now.  I think of how the young defense gelled down the stretch, and how they all bought in to Anarumo's schemes.  I even think of how limited the playbook was for ZT (who gets far too little credit for this, but that is a subject for another thread) after losing Reiff.  

Does that mean this year's team goes 14-3 and has home field throughout the playoffs?  I sure hope so, but doubtful.  I think you were dead on about staying "reasonable healthy".  I will add "balanced".  I hope they don't have to rely on Chase getting 100 receptions, or Mixon getting 30 carries a game (I know that is incredibly unlikely, but hear me out).  A balanced team with a solid rotation at receiver (including TE) and RB, will keep everyone fresher and healthier down the stretch.

I sincerely hope we see a lot more of Evans and more rotation on the defensive line with the likes of Tupou, Shelvin, Sample, Kareem, Ossai, and Carter providing a blow for the Hendrickson, Hubbard, Reader, and Hill.  

I was frankly amazed how those guys played with the extra game and so many injuries to the rotational pieces.  They are all heart.  This year, they need to be breathing fire come the post season.  Healthy, rested, and God-willing, with a first round bye.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(05-22-2022, 10:20 AM)HarleyDog Wrote: Are we passed the point that a 2 win season against Pittsburgh was success?   There is nothing more satisfying to me than a win over the stoolers. Although, from the view of winning the division, I totally agree. 

I wondered if my white-hot hatred for the team to the East was going to wane once the pig went to the slaughter house.  It hasn't. 

I had to laugh recently that a story came out that he isn't happy with how his exit was handled.  Damn drama queen just can't give up that crown. 

[*SHRacerX*]

(05-22-2022, 10:38 AM)michaelsean Wrote: They would have rolled the week 18 Cleveland team if they had played their starters.

A relatively simple, but incredibly accurate point.  I can't help think the stats should be skewed as an 11 win regular season, but I also wholeheartedly believe that taking that week as a bye was HUGE for their playoff run. 

[fredtoast]

(05-22-2022, 10:38 AM)michaelsean Wrote: They would have rolled the week 18 Cleveland team if they had played their starters.

(05-22-2022, 11:36 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: A relatively simple, but incredibly accurate point.  

Had the Browns lost a lot of players to injury since they kicked our asses in week 9?

I honestly did not pay much attention to that game.  My head was in the clouds dreaming about the playoff game.

[casear2727]

(05-22-2022, 11:32 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: A lot of us right now will poo poo the percentages about teams that lose the Super Bowl not even returning to the playoffs and with good reason.  So many times, those teams are broken up for a variety of reasons.  They lose top notch coordinators (Bengals didn't).   They lose top notch talent to FA (Bengals didn't).  Their schedule is much tougher (TBD).  

It is easy for us to dismiss the historical numbers, but those are the trends of the teams in our situation in the recent past.  

Personally, I think of the team now vs. the team that struggled so badly against the Bears and I think how the offense is light years ahead of that now.  I think of how the young defense gelled down the stretch, and how they all bought in to Anarumo's schemes.  I even think of how limited the playbook was for ZT (who gets far too little credit for this, but that is a subject for another thread) after losing Reiff.  

Does that mean this year's team goes 14-3 and has home field throughout the playoffs?  I sure hope so, but doubtful.  I think you were dead on about staying "reasonable healthy".  I will add "balanced".  I hope they don't have to rely on Chase getting 100 receptions, or Mixon getting 30 carries a game (I know that is incredibly unlikely, but hear me out).  A balanced team with a solid rotation at receiver (including TE) and RB, will keep everyone fresher and healthier down the stretch.

I sincerely hope we see a lot more of Evans and more rotation on the defensive line with the likes of Tupou, Shelvin, Sample, Kareem, Ossai, and Carter providing a blow for the Hendrickson, Hubbard, Reader, and Hill.  

I was frankly amazed how those guys played with the extra game and so many injuries to the rotational pieces.  They are all heart.  This year, they need to be breathing fire come the post season.  Healthy, rested, and God-willing, with a first round bye.  

The fact that many teams struggle after losing the Super Bowl is real.  You are correct that we did not lose any, coaches or players.  I would also add that many teams take years going hard for a SB after they had constructed a team that is built for a solid run. We hadnt finished putting our team together yet to even start serious playoff contention.

I believe we were a year early to even consider real contention.  Looking at the roster only the this year and the previous 2 without any knowledge of past records, I would easily suggest that this coming season in 2022 would be the first that we actually had a serious chance at making a run.

We not only hit the Super Bowl we did it prior to proper roster construction, without a ton of vets, and without a NFL caliber oline.  If we draft well, continue free agency and manage the cap we can be annual contenders with injuries being our primary obstacle.

[*SHRacerX*]

(05-22-2022, 12:33 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Had the Browns lost a lot of players to injury since they kicked our asses in week 9?

I honestly did not pay much attention to that game.  My head was in the clouds dreaming about the playoff game.

Mayfield was pretty beat up.  But as close as it was with virtually all backups said a lot to me.  

[XenoMorph]

with the AFC the way it is now its gonna be hard to get in at under 10 wins

[KillerGoose]

(05-23-2022, 09:17 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Mayfield was pretty beat up.  But as close as it was with virtually all backups said a lot to me.  

Mayfield didn't even play. Keenum started. That Browns team was a skeleton crew.

[*michaelsean*]

(05-22-2022, 12:33 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Had the Browns lost a lot of players to injury since they kicked our asses in week 9?

I honestly did not pay much attention to that game.  My head was in the clouds dreaming about the playoff game.

Baker was out as were several others.  If you happened to see them the week before against Pittsburgh, they were done.

[*SHRacerX*]

(05-23-2022, 09:37 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: Mayfield didn't even play. Keenum started. That Browns team was a skeleton crew.

They still had their offensive line, two good backs, and their premier pass rushers, right?  A healthy Keenum was probably a wash vs. a beat-up Baker.  

[KillerGoose]

(05-23-2022, 09:43 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: They still had their offensive line, two good backs, and their premier pass rushers, right?  A healthy Keenum was probably a wash vs. a beat-up Baker.  

The Browns were missing...

• Mayfield
• Kareem Hunt
• Denzel Ward
• Ronnie Harrison
• Troy Hill
  

Greedy Williams also didn't start, but he played. Looks like the rest of their guys were there. Not as bad as I remembered. 

[WeezyBengal]

(05-21-2022, 11:50 PM)fredtoast Wrote: From '00 through '20 (21 years of 16 games season and 12 playoff teams) a little over a third (36%) of the teams that made the playoffs had 10 wins or fewer.  Less than half of those teams (45%) returned to the playoffs the next season.  Vegas and the media experts know this and hold it against the Bengals.

But on the other hand, a third of the time (7 times in 21 years) a team that made the playoffs with 10 wins or less made it all the way to the Super Bowl the following season, and four times the team that WON the Super Bowl had made the playoffs the previous season with 10 or fewer wins ('02 Bucs, '07 Giants, '08 Steelers, '21 Rams).

All we have to do is stay reasonably healthy and we should be back.

Can guarantee you the media experts don't know this or care to know this. They are lazy and the narrative that the Bengals "wont make it back to the playoffs" this year is just them flinging mud at the wall/pushing a storyline that is attention grabbing. It's not based on any kind of fact finding...just catchy click baity hot takes.

[WeezyBengal]

(05-23-2022, 09:18 AM)XenoMorph Wrote: with the AFC the way it is now its gonna be hard to get in at under 10 wins

Wouldn't that make it easier to get with/under 10 wins? All of the AFC teams are going to beat up on each other. No team is going to have a ton of wins. 

[fredtoast]

(05-23-2022, 10:10 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: Can guarantee you the media experts don't know this or care to know this. They are lazy and the narrative that the Bengals "wont make it back to the playoffs" this year is just them flinging mud at the wall/pushing a storyline that is attention grabbing. It's not based on any kind of fact finding...just catchy click baity hot takes.

They may not know the numbers, but I guarantee that a big reason we are not considered a "powerhouse" by many experts is that we were just 10-7 last year.

Bengal fans do the exact same thing with other teams.  If a perennial loser squeaks into the playoffs they don't get a lot of respect the next season until they prove they can win more consistently.