Who is our backup QB?

[The D.O.Z.]

I don’t know why they’re not looking at undrafted free agents at the very least. There has to be a guy out there that can battle Allen for the back up spot and if not, we can stash him on the practice squad. I wonder who will be brought in as OTA-arms. You’ve got to think they aren’t going to go into OTA‘s with just Burrow and Allen, right?!

Can an OTA arm parlay the chance into a spot?! I’d like to see it myself.

[fredtoast]

(05-22-2022, 12:43 PM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: I'll worry more about the backup QB when we have been to the playoffs multiple years in a row. For now, we need to stay focused on getting players that will see the field regularly.

Last year only 11 QBs started all 17 games.
In 2020 only 13 started all 16.
In 2019 only 13 started all 16.

Just one or two wins could be the difference in making the playoffs.  So if you want to make the playoffs multiple seasons in a row you better have a decent #2 QB.

[Mike M (the other one)]

(05-22-2022, 04:23 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Last year only 11 QBs started all 17 games.
In 2020 only 13 started all 16.
In 2019 only 13 started all 16.

Just one or two wins could be the difference in making the playoffs.  So if you want to make the playoffs multiple seasons in a row you better have a decent #2 QB.

Of those where their QB started all games, how many were in the playoffs vs those where the QB didn't start all of their games (exceptions teams that sat their qb for the final week).

[fredtoast]

(05-22-2022, 04:27 PM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: Of those where their QB started all games, how many were in the playoffs vs those where the QB didn't start all of their games (exceptions teams that sat their qb for the final week).

Who cares?  One or two a year still means well over half of the QBs fail to play a full season.

[Mike M (the other one)]

(05-22-2022, 05:01 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Who cares?  One or two a year still means well over half of the QBs fail to play a full season.

who cares?
I'm betting some of your numbers includes qb's that got benched due to poor play as "QB's that didn't start all games", such as rookies, and 2nd-3rd year players, whose teams didn't have much of a chance to begin with.

AFC Playoffs Teams where qb didn't miss any games due to injuries:
Titans
KC 
Buffalo
Bengals *Burrow sat last game, but wasn't due to injuries
Raiders
Patriots

Missed on game
Pitt

NFC PLayoffs Didn't miss any
Tampa Bay
Rams

Missed one
GB

Missed 2
Eagles
SF

Missed 3
Ariz


So it appears that if your QB doesn't miss more than a couple games, you should be ok. 

[fredtoast]

(05-22-2022, 05:18 PM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: So it appears that if your QB doesn't miss more than a couple games, you should be ok. 

If your entire sample set is "teams that made the playoffs" then you automatically eliminate every team that missed the playoffs because they had a poor back up QB.

Then you show that a lot of the playoff teams had their QB miss games with injury.  But in order to prove that a good back up does not matter you would have to show that even if those playoff teams lost every game their starter missed they would still have made the playoffs.  So lets take a look.

If the Steelers lost the only game Ben missed they don't make the playoffs. 

If Eagles lost both games Jalen Hurts missed then they don't make the playoffs.

If Niners lost both games that Garappollo missed then they might have missed the playoffs. (tied with Saints at 9-8.  Don't know the tiebreaker)

If Arizona lost all three games that Murray missed then they also might have missed the playoffs at 9-8.

So in just ONE season we see FOUR cases where teams could not have made the playoffs if they lost all the games their starter missed. The backups for those 4 teams went 4-3-1 and all the teams made the playoffs.

[NATI BENGALS]

He helped John Ross go top 10 in the draft. Maybe he could end up being a nice long term back up here?

He is on the roster. 

[Mike M (the other one)]

(05-22-2022, 05:58 PM)fredtoast Wrote: If your entire sample set is "teams that made the playoffs" then you automatically eliminate every team that missed the playoffs because they had a poor back up QB.

Then you show that a lot of the playoff teams had their QB miss games with injury.  But in order to prove that a good back up does not matter you would have to show that even if those playoff teams lost every game their starter missed they would still have made the playoffs.  So lets take a look.

If the Steelers lost the only game Ben missed they don't make the playoffs. 

If Eagles lost both games Jalen Hurts missed then they don't make the playoffs.

If Niners lost both games that Garappollo missed then they might have missed the playoffs. (tied with Saints at 9-8.  Don't know the tiebreaker)

If Arizona lost all three games that Murray missed then they also might have missed the playoffs at 9-8.

So in just ONE season we see FOUR cases where teams could not have made the playoffs if they lost all the games their starter missed. The backups for those 4 teams went 4-3-1 and all the teams made the playoffs.

That's why you build a complete rooster, so the TEAM can handle a halfway competent back up QB starting for a game or two. Backups are backups for a reason, if they need to start more than a couple games, then you are likely going to miss the playoffs anyways.

Steelers tied
Eagles 1-1
Niners 1-1 (but they invested a high pick on a QB)
Cards 2-1

But this is only 4 out of the 14 teams that made the playoffs.

Aside from Eagles/Bengals, all the rest of the teams were pretty much predicted to be there, because their teams are pretty solid all the way around.

So Now instead of getting a player that could help us on the OL/DL you'd rather bump extra $$ into a Backup when Joe B doesn't have a history of missing games to begin with?
 If after a few years, and Joe B turns out to start missing multiple games per year, then yes, we need to get a better backup.

[TecmoBengals]

I speculate Burrow gets along with Allen and appreciates the sideline conversations and perspectives that Allen can share during games. Add in a cheap contract and I suppose that's why Allen is on the roster. Plan A is Burrow. There is no Plan B.

[fredtoast]

(05-23-2022, 02:01 AM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote:  when Joe B doesn't have a history of missing games to begin with?

[Mike M (the other one)]

(05-23-2022, 11:08 AM)fredtoast Wrote:

LOL as usual, you skipped the next line and focused only on one.


"If after a few years, and Joe B turns out to start missing multiple games per year, then yes, we need to get a better backup."

He doesn't have an established history of missing games due to injuries. 
The injury from 2 years ago was a fluke and is sandwiched between years of not missing any significant time due to injuries.


THAT MEANS HE DOESN'T HAVE AN ESTABLISHED HISTORY OF BEING INJURED.


Season ending injuries happens to almost all QB's at some point during their career's, and you know as well as i do, if a top tier qb goes out for the year, then odds are they won't make the playoffs. Check the history of the NFL and find those backups started in the middle of the season and lead their teams to the post-season??


Out of all of the teams that made the playoffs last year, i doubt many of us could name more than 4 of their backups.

[fredtoast]

(05-23-2022, 12:58 PM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: LOL as usual, you skipped the next line and focused only on one.


"If after a few years, and Joe B turns out to start missing multiple games per year, then yes, we need to get a better backup."

If all of our horses run away then I think we should fix the fence.  But not until they are already gone.

I have seen how most of our neighbor's horses run away when they don't have good fences, but for some reason I am sure ours won't.  Sure, ours ran away last year, but for some reason that does not count.  We need to watch it happen a few more times before we do anything about it.

[fredtoast]

(05-23-2022, 12:58 PM)Mik e M (the other one) Wrote: Season ending injuries happens to almost all QB's at some point during their career's, and you know as well as i do,

So do minor injuries that just knock out a QB for 1 or two games.  Just look at 6 of the 14 playoff teams from last year.

In fact it looks like those minor type of injuries are much more common than season-ending injuries.

[Mike M (the other one)]

(05-23-2022, 01:07 PM)fredtoast Wrote: If all of our horses run away then I think we should fix the fence.  But not until they are already gone.

I have seen how most of our neighbor's horses run away when they don't have good fences, but for some reason I am sure ours won't.  Sure, ours ran away last year, but for some reason that does not count.  We need to watch it happen a few more times before we do anything about it.

apples to oranges.
How many teams can afford to have a top tier qb, and a good backup not on a rookie/1st contract( that are not planning to move to the rookie in the near future)?


If you paid any attention to what i have posted, you would have seen that i said, we have other holes to address first.


Once we have a solid roster from top to bottom with no immediate needs, we can use some draft capital on a 3rd round qb to bring in. 
I have no idea why you like to complicate things. 

[fredtoast]

(05-23-2022, 01:24 PM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: Once we have a solid roster from top to bottom with no immediate needs, we can use some draft capital on a 3rd round qb to bring in. 

QB is the single most important position on the team.  So the back up QB should be the most important back up on the team.

I honestly don't see any holes in our starting lineup that would require all of our remaining $15 million in cap space.  But I don't think I ever said we should spend it all on a back up QB and ignore every other position.

[fredtoast]

(05-23-2022, 01:24 PM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: apples to oranges.

No it is not at all.

If you wait until you have blown a couple of seasons with QB injuries before you decide to get a decent back up it is too late.  I don't see how you can claim that it is so rare for QBs to miss games that a back up does not even matter when I have already shown that a large majority of starting QBs miss games EVERY SINGLE YEAR.

[Mike M (the other one)]

(05-23-2022, 01:34 PM)fredtoast Wrote: QB is the single most important position on the team.  So the back up QB should be the most important back up on the team.

I honestly don't see any holes in our starting lineup that would require all of our remaining $15 million in cap space.  But I don't think I ever said we should spend it all on a back up QB and ignore every other position.

and at we are in a good spot, but we had to sign FA's and use the draft this year to get there. 
next year, we can draft a qb to be the back up, as our roster is good enough finally.


If you want someone better than Brandon Allen for this year, it's very unlikely to happen. ZT likes him. 

(05-23-2022, 01:37 PM)fredtoast Wrote: No it is not at all.

If you wait until you have blown a couple of seasons with QB injuries before you decide to get a decent back up it is too late.  I don't see how you can claim that it is so rare for QBs to miss games that a back up does not even matter when I have already shown that a large majority of starting QBs miss games EVERY SINGLE YEAR.

and i showed you that the teams that make the playoffs, their qb's miss less than 4% of their total regular season games.
Pretty good odds.


Show me a team that has a top 15 qb, that missed 4+ games that didn't make the playoffs because of that?

[fredtoast]

(05-23-2022, 02:02 PM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: and i showed you that the teams that make the playoffs, their qb's miss less than 4% of their total regular season games.
Pretty good odds.

And I showed you that they only made the playoffs because they did not lose every game their back up QB started.

Just pointing out the fact that many playoff teams have a QB miss games does not prove anything.  In fact it actually proves MY POINT when you look at the fact that the back ups had to win games for their teams to make the playoffs.

[fredtoast]

(05-23-2022, 02:02 PM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: and at we are in a good spot, but we had to sign FA's and use the draft this year to get there. 
next year, we can draft a qb to be the back up, as our roster is good enough finally.

We have no idea if we will still be competing for a championship in 2023.

[*ochocincos*]

(05-22-2022, 08:00 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote:



He helped John Ross go top 10 in the draft. Maybe he could end up being a nice long term back up here?

He is on the roster. 

Browning connected with Ross a lot on quick passes or extended the play long enough for Ross to get separation with his speed and then hit him.
It's really not hard to find out why Ross was successful.

When Ross was a Bengal, he struggled more because of:
1) Not used enough on shorter throws
2) Play didn't last long enough for him to get separation since he was lacking size/physicality
3) He did make mistakes on the field at times
4) He had difficulty staying healthy

So I don't think Browning was any kind of special ability other than finding ways to get more time for Ross to get open. Washington's playcalling also helped Ross.