Odds for next year's Superbowl.

[Cuzz from England]

I've just looked at the odds for us to win the big prize next year and over here we're 24/1 behind 10 other teams. Now can someone on here convince me not to have a bet ?? We were 1 play away last season, we have strongly improved on our weakness area and our draft players look ready to go. Best qb - check, best offense check, best kicker check. It might well not work out but holy hell I hope it does. At those odds could you really resist a bit of a punt. The bookies are usually right but are these odds too good to resist ????

[fredtoast]

Nothing wrong with a bet if you have the money to lose.

I feel the Bengals have enough talent to beat any team in the league, but I seriously doubt we go undefeated. I don't know if we will make it to the Super Bowl. Anything can go wrong, but it is a legitimate possibility.

[Bengalfan4life27c]

Looking at it from a outside perspective 4th place schedule still horrible pass defense we were 26th in passing yards allowed last season lack of quality depth at many spots along with TE potentially becoming an eye sore.

[QueenCity]

(06-23-2022, 10:50 AM)Bengalfan4life27c Wrote: Looking at it from a outside perspective 4th place schedule still horrible pass defense we were 26th in passing yards allowed last season lack of quality depth at many spots along with TE potentially becoming an eye sore.

Hurst is going to be better than Uzomah... much better weapon offensively. Not sure the drop will be big enough in blocking due to the upgraded O-Line.

[Bengalfan4life27c]

(06-23-2022, 10:55 AM)QueenCity Wrote: Hurst is going to be better than Uzomah... much better weapon offensively. Not sure the drop will be big enough in blocking due to the upgraded O-Line.

I don't agree with what I said that's a majority of knowledgeable non Bengal fans say.

[WeezyBengal]

Because a **** ton has to go right in order to make the Super Bowl...

I'm not saying we were lucky last year, but A LOT of things went the Bengals way. Health, timely turnovers, other teams being injured, etc. They could have very easily lost in the Wild Card round to the Raiders.

I think we will make the playoffs this year, but we aren't a 100% shoe in. The AFC is damn hard and a lot of teams improved. The division will be tough to win and there are a lot more teams vying for those wild card spots as well.

That being said, I think 24-1 is pretty good betting odds IMO. I think its worth throwing at least $100 at.

[Soonerpeace]

(06-23-2022, 10:50 AM)Bengalfan4life27c Wrote: Looking at it from a outside perspective 4th place schedule still horrible pass defense we were 26th in passing yards allowed last season lack of quality depth at many spots along with TE potentially becoming an eye sore.

People need to look at the Bengals after the bye week. They made a leap. The pass defense held up well vs KC twice and LA.

[WeezyBengal]

(06-23-2022, 10:55 AM)QueenCity Wrote: Hurst is going to be better than Uzomah... much better weapon offensively. Not sure the drop will be big enough in blocking due to the upgraded O-Line.

Not sure why people think Hurst is an upgrade. Him and CJ have been super comparable over the length of their careers - you could actually argue CJ has been the better offensive weapon. 

[KillerGoose]

(06-23-2022, 10:59 AM)Soonerpeace Wrote: People need to look at the Bengals after the bye week. They made a leap. The pass defense held up well vs KC twice and LA.

Here are some rankings after the bye week...

1. Passing Efficiency (EPA per attempt) - 6th
2. Rushing Efficiency (EPA per attempt) - 17th
3. Passing Efficiency Allowed (EPA per attempt) - 16th
4. Rushing Efficiency Allowed (EPA per attempt) - 13th
   

The defensive story was more or less the same, fairly mediocre defense overall but the offense made a large jump. Here are the same rankings but prior to the bye week. 

1. Passing Efficiency Allowed (EPA per attempt) - 20th
2. Rushing Efficiency Allowed (EPA per attempt) - 10th
3. Passing Efficiency (EPA per attempt) - 13th
4. Rushing Efficiency (EPA per attempt) - 25th
   

I would not say that the defense held up well against the Chiefs in the regular season. Mahomes dropped a 113 rating on their head with 31 points. They did do a good job in the AFCCG and SB, however. The biggest change after the bye was the offense, there is no doubt about that. 

[WeezyBengal]

(06-23-2022, 11:17 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: Here are some rankings after the bye week...

1. Passing Efficiency (EPA per attempt) - 6th
2. Rushing Efficiency (EPA per attempt) - 17th
3. Passing Efficiency Allowed (EPA per attempt) - 16th
4. Rushing Efficiency Allowed (EPA per attempt) - 13th
   

The defensive story was more or less the same, fairly mediocre defense overall but the offense made a large jump. Here are the same rankings but prior to the bye week. 

1. Passing Efficiency Allowed (EPA per attempt) - 20th
2. Rushing Efficiency Allowed (EPA per attempt) - 10th
3. Passing Efficiency (EPA per attempt) - 13th
4. Rushing Efficiency (EPA per attempt) - 25th
   

I would not say that the defense held up well against the Chiefs in the regular season. Mahomes dropped a 113 rating on their head with 31 points. They did do a good job in the AFCCG and SB, however. The biggest change after the bye was the offense, there is no doubt about that. 

I think we talked about this before, but I feel like we said the turnovers were the main thing that propelled this team after the bye and especially in the playoffs. Less turnovers by the offense (Burrow) and more turnovers produced by the defense. 

[KillerGoose]

(06-23-2022, 11:22 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: I think we talked about this before, but I feel like we said the turnovers were the main thing that propelled this team after the bye and especially in the playoffs. Less turnovers by the offense (Burrow) and more turnovers produced by the defense. 

Yep, exactly. All correct. 

[Soonerpeace]

(06-23-2022, 11:17 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: Here are some rankings after the bye week...

1. Passing Efficiency (EPA per attempt) - 6th
2. Rushing Efficiency (EPA per attempt) - 17th
3. Passing Efficiency Allowed (EPA per attempt) - 16th
4. Rushing Efficiency Allowed (EPA per attempt) - 13th
   

The defensive story was more or less the same, fairly mediocre defense overall but the offense made a large jump. Here are the same rankings but prior to the bye week. 

1. Passing Efficiency Allowed (EPA per attempt) - 20th
2. Rushing Efficiency Allowed (EPA per attempt) - 10th
3. Passing Efficiency (EPA per attempt) - 13th
4. Rushing Efficiency (EPA per attempt) - 25th
   

I would not say that the defense held up well against the Chiefs in the regular season. Mahomes dropped a 113 rating on their head with 31 points. They did do a good job in the AFCCG and SB, however. The biggest change after the bye was the offense, there is no doubt about that. 

(06-23-2022, 11:22 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: I think we talked about this before, but I feel like we said the turnovers were the main thing that propelled this team after the bye and especially in the playoffs. Less turnovers by the offense (Burrow) and more turnovers produced by the defense. 

KillerGoose quick response. And I think Weezy nailed it as well. Statistically the defense may not show it statistically but the timely turnovers really helped. My point is a lot of people ( and I think Vegas) are looking at stats for the whole year. The Bengals weren’t lucky as much as they emerged. I think they emerge more as a team that beats teams more easily and are tough to beat any day. No more have to play perfect on the Bengals part. They are going to be able to win if Joe has an off day. Maybe not the big games.

[*ochocincos*]

(06-23-2022, 10:02 AM)Cuzz from England Wrote: I've just looked at the odds for us to win the big prize next year and over here we're 24/1 behind 10 other teams. Now can someone on here convince me not to have a bet ??  We were 1 play away last season, we have strongly improved on our weakness area and our draft players look ready to go. Best qb - check, best offense check, best kicker check. It might well not work out but holy hell I hope it does. At those odds could you really resist a bit of a punt. The bookies are usually right but are these odds too good to resist ????

I'm gonna bet the teams that are ahead are ones with more proven OL and a QB who has had multiple really good statistical seasons and/or championships.

All of the below are probably above Bengals in odds:
Packers
Rams
Bucs
Bills
Chiefs

And then you probably add a couple more just because of general franchise success and doing well last year but lost in the playoffs:

Cowboys
49ers

Then you probably have some teams getting put ahead just because of the higher profile FA(s) brought in despite actually doing worse last year in the regular season:
Chargers
Broncos
Raiders

Personally, I wouldn't put the Bengals lower than the first 5 I listed. 

[Soonerpeace]

(06-23-2022, 01:13 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I'm gonna bet the teams that are ahead are ones with more proven OL and a QB who has had multiple really good statistical seasons and/or championships.

All of the below are probably above Bengals in odds:
Packers
Rams
Bucs
Bills
Chiefs

And then you probably add a couple more just because of general franchise success and doing well last year but lost in the playoffs:

Cowboys
49ers

Then you probably have some teams getting put ahead just because of the higher profile FA(s) brought in despite actually doing worse last year in the regular season:
Chargers
Broncos
Raiders

Personally, I wouldn't put the Bengals lower than the first 5 I listed. 

You know KC had a crap OL in 2020. It was a huge question mark going into 2021 but Vegas still liked them. Why? Mahomes & Reid primarily but their firepower too. It’s just going to take Cincy to prove that they’ve truly arrived as a legit team. They’ve got to beat the teams they are supposed to handily and continue to win their share vs the top teams.

[*bengalfan74*]

It's hard to go to back to back SB's. So many things have to line up. The ball has to bounce your way a lot and of course health plays a big part. The AFC is stacked !

But I still believe we have just as good a chance as many teams they're calling better.

[*ochocincos*]

(06-23-2022, 01:31 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: You know KC had a crap OL in 2020. It was a huge question mark going into 2021 but Vegas still liked them. Why? Mahomes & Reid primarily but their firepower too. It’s just going to take Cincy to prove that they’ve truly arrived as a legit team. They’ve got to beat the teams they are supposed to handily and continue to win their share vs the top teams.

Right.
I'm saying I'd be willing to put the Bengals in the 6-10 category.
Only would really put Bills, Chiefs, Bucs, Packers, and Rams ahead of them.
I could also see the Packers decline some with Adams leaving, although I think Christian Watson, Sammy Watkins, and Romeo Doubs can help try to cover some of those targets and production between the three of them.

[Soonerpeace]

(06-23-2022, 01:34 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: It's hard to go to back to back SB's. So many things have to line up. The ball has to bounce your way a lot and of course health plays a big part. The AFC is stacked !

But I still believe we have just as good a chance as many teams they're calling better.

I feel the same

[*psychdoctor*]

The Cincinnati Bengals came out of nowhere last year.  They were hot at the right time.  

The players on defense created timely plays. I understand why the pundits and other fans think the Cincinnati Bengals were lucky.

Statistically the defense wasn't really eye catching, but as a unit they were scrappy and dependable.  Sweet Lou and the defense held Mahomes to 3 points in the second half in each of the two games.  Buffalo bills couldn't stop mahomes for 13 seconds.

I don't think Joe Burrow looked great in the playoffs, likely due to his dislocated finger and lingering knee strain. Meaning I don't think Burrow was at his best last year and they still almost won the super bowl which was played on LA Rams home field.

Sometimes metrics do not match the soul of a team or the team chemistry. The Cincinnati Bengals are such a team which is why people underestimate their potential.  Let them. To the op: If you have $100 to burn, go ahead. If you're really a believer, put a thousand down now.

[WeezyBengal]

(06-23-2022, 02:31 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: The Cincinnati Bengals came out of nowhere last year.  They were hot at the right time.  

The players on defense created timely plays. I understand why the pundits and other fans think the Cincinnati Bengals were lucky.

Statistically the defense wasn't really eye catching, but as a unit they were scrappy and dependable.  Sweet Lou and the defense held Mahomes to 3 points in the second half in each of the two games.  Buffalo bills couldn't stop mahomes for 13 seconds.

I don't think Joe Burrow looked great in the playoffs, likely due to his dislocated finger and lingering knee strain. Meaning I don't think Burrow was at his best last year and they still almost won the super bowl which was played on LA Rams home field.

Sometimes metrics do not match the soul of a team or the team chemistry. The Cincinnati Bengals are such a team which is why people underestimate their potential.  Let them. To the op: If you have $100 to burn, go ahead. If you're really a believer, put a thousand down now.

I completely forgot about this. 

[JUDAS MESIAS]

Finally joined after lurking for couple years.

Bengals will be back in the Super Bowl this season.

Joe is going to be crazy focused and motivated.

I wouldn't bet against him.