Anyone notice the lack of tropical storms and hurricanes this year?

[grampahol]

I was expecting quite a few,  but as far as I can remember this year we've only had one very minor tropical storm off the Carolina coast and there's nothing brewing in the Atlantic basin.. There's been a couple off the west coast of Mexico, but they've fizzled out too..
Seems a bit strange considering all the heat in a lot of places. Carolinas have been relatively cool compared to the past few years. 
Meanwhile Europe seems to want to burn down and London at 104 F? Yikes.. 

[Stewy]

(07-21-2022, 06:06 PM)grampahol Wrote: I was expecting quite a few,  but as far as I can remember this year we've only had one very minor tropical storm off the Carolina coast and there's nothing brewing in the Atlantic basin.. There's been a couple off the west coast of Mexico, but they've fizzled out too..
Seems a bit strange considering all the heat in a lot of places. Carolinas have been relatively cool compared to the past few years. 
Meanwhile Europe seems to want to burn down and London at 104 F? Yikes.. 

It's early days yet.  The peak of the season is in mid-September.

Note where mid July falls on this chart.

[fredtoast]

I believe that the climate in general and the water shortage in the west in particular will be a very big issue in the 2024 election.

For a long time lots of people have been asking for environmental policy, but when it came to money people were still willing to bump the environment down the list.  But I think in the next couple of years it is actually going to start getting scary.  Probably a few more powerful hurricanes also.

It is one thing to fight to protect polar bears, but when it actually starts effecting humans, like a water shortage will, people will get serious about it.

[grampahol]

The problem I have with environmental issues is that we've been grossly mislead not about climate change, but what we can reasonably expect to happen in terms of the cars we drive and where we can expect to get energy from. 
As much as I would love to see the alleged green revolution come to fruition we simply don't have sufficient sustainable supply lines to provide everything we need. 
We know how to drill oil and how to sustain the supply lines, but what we don't have right now are the sustainable supply lines for all the raw materials needed to make the green revolution reality nor do we have enough mature technologies and industries. What is also left out is the fact that a lot of the things needed will require a lot of really dirty energy to manufacturer enough of the green technology to offset it all. It's damned if you do and damned sure damned if you don't.   The lack of sufficient copper mines alone are a huge issue. Hint..electric motors for everything require a lot more copper than we currently have available. That's just the beginning. 

[fredtoast]

(07-22-2022, 12:06 AM)grampahol Wrote: The problem I have with environmental issues is that we've been grossly mislead not about climate change, but what we can reasonably expect to happen in terms of the cars we drive and where we can expect to get energy from. 
As much as I would love to see the alleged green revolution come to fruition we simply don't have sufficient sustainable supply lines to provide everything we need. 
We know how to drill oil and how to sustain the supply lines, but what we don't have right now are the sustainable supply lines for all the raw materials needed to make the green revolution reality nor do we have enough mature technologies and industries. What is also left out is the fact that a lot of the things needed will require a lot of really dirty energy to manufacturer enough of the green technology to offset it all. It's damned if you do and damned sure damned if you don't.   The lack of sufficient copper mines alone are a huge issue. Hint..electric motors for everything require a lot more copper than we currently have available. That's just the beginning. 

We have the material and technology to implement most renewable energy plans.  

The only problem is that right now fossil fuels are still considered "cheaper" because people don't count the cost of their financial impact on our environment.  But I think there will be a big shift in that ideology when people out west start running out of water at the same time wildfires are burning everything.

Lack of refining capacity was a bigger reason for high gas prices in the United Sates than lack of crude oil.  And oil companies are not going to invest in new refineries because they know that oil is not the fuel of the future.

[WeezyBengal]

(07-21-2022, 11:31 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I believe that the climate in general and the water shortage in the west in particular will be a very big issue in the 2024 election.

For a long time lots of people have been asking for environmental policy, but when it came to money people were still willing to bump the environment down the list.  But I think in the next couple of years it is actually going to start getting scary.  Probably a few more powerful hurricanes also.

It is one thing to fight to protect polar bears, but when it actually starts effecting humans, like a water shortage will, people will get serious about it.

I agree with this. For me, its the most important issue that us humans are currently facing and more people are def waking up. 

[WeezyBengal]

(07-22-2022, 12:06 AM)grampahol Wrote: The problem I have with environmental issues is that we've been grossly mislead not about climate change, but what we can reasonably expect to happen in terms of the cars we drive and where we can expect to get energy from. 
As much as I would love to see the alleged green revolution come to fruition we simply don't have sufficient sustainable supply lines to provide everything we need. 
We know how to drill oil and how to sustain the supply lines, but what we don't have right now are the sustainable supply lines for all the raw materials needed to make the green revolution reality nor do we have enough mature technologies and industries. What is also left out is the fact that a lot of the things needed will require a lot of really dirty energy to manufacturer enough of the green technology to offset it all. It's damned if you do and damned sure damned if you don't.   The lack of sufficient copper mines alone are a huge issue. Hint..electric motors for everything require a lot more copper than we currently have available. That's just the beginning. 

PLEASE 

This shouldn't stop humanity from at least TRYING to do better. 

Government can do something as easy as banning single use plastic bottles and it would make a huge impact. They can also lean more on nuclear and take it as a more serious option. 

The viewpoint you share is the same one that has gotten us nowhere the past 10-15 years. 

Also, how have we been "mislead" about climate change? Half of the Great Barrier Reef is bleached and dying because of rising water temps and we still like to pretend like this isn't a thing? 

[XenoMorph]

(07-22-2022, 03:28 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: PLEASE 

This shouldn't stop humanity from at least TRYING to do better. 

Government can do something as easy as banning single use plastic bottles and it would make a huge impact. They can also lean more on nuclear and take it as a more serious option. 

The viewpoint you share is the same one that has gotten us nowhere the past 10-15 years. 

Also, how have we been "mislead" about climate change? Half of the Great Barrier Reef is bleached and dying because of rising water temps and we still like to pretend like this isn't a thing? 

better recycling program here would go a long long way.....

[grampahol]

A few things to consider.. First I want a green system as much as anyone, but there are definite constraints. A large amount of the raw materials at this time are not that easy to come by and of those raw materials we're in fierce competition for from every country also trying to get a hold of them. China is the biggest competitor,  but hardly the only one. Things like rare earth minerals are mostly located on the other side of the planet and a bunch are in conflict zones. 
Silicone is absolutely essential, but the silicone needed has to be highly refined and that takes a lot of dirty energy to produce.  The vast majority of nickel is in Russia or Ukraine where we're not going to access it anytime soon. Copper has to be mined in vast quantities and processed and it too is getting harder to source. 
The point about the difference between green tech and fossil fuels is we have no problem sourcing fossil fuels, but green tech supply lines are strung out all over the world ..It's supply and demand and demand is outstripping supply. It's just one of many reasons we're still having wars and there are very likely going to be more wars on the way for the supplies. 
Hey, if we could all meet and sing kumbya and get along great our problems are solved, but...Last time I checked that ain't happening. 
We still have more than enough countries incapable of using green tech and even more who can't afford it. The planet just keeps getting hotter in the meantime. 

[grampahol]

I'm still very much bullish on the US into the future since China is about to go tits up, but here's a really interesting video by Peter Zeihan about metals and our ability to access it going forward. We just have to get there first without us breaking apart into different factions of insanity. Good luck, huh?

[fredtoast]

(07-23-2022, 06:51 PM)grampahol Wrote: We still have more than enough countries incapable of using green tech and even more who can't afford it. 

This is by far the biggest problem.

Countries that are already industrialized can afford to make changes that cost money because they care about the "hidden costs" of fossil fuel on our environment.  But developing countries have to use the cheapest fuel/energy sources just to survive and grow.  Even if they recognize the problem and care about environmental impact, they just can't afford to pay for more expensive renewable energy.

[WeezyBengal]

(07-22-2022, 03:38 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: better recycling program here would go a long long way.....

We don't have a recycling program. 

Literally 90% of "recycled" products get shipped off to a third world country and they either throw it in the ocean or landfill. We actually pay them to do this. For a long time it was China, now its countries like Nygeria and Cambodia. It's sickening. 

https://sites.dartmouth.edu/dujs/2021/09/09/where-does-your-recycling-really-go/

[WeezyBengal]

(07-23-2022, 06:51 PM)grampahol Wrote: A few things to consider.. First I want a green system as much as anyone, but there are definite constraints. A large amount of the raw materials at this time are not that easy to come by and of those raw materials we're in fierce competition for from every country also trying to get a hold of them. China is the biggest competitor,  but hardly the only one. Things like rare earth minerals are mostly located on the other side of the planet and a bunch are in conflict zones. 
Silicone is absolutely essential, but the silicone needed has to be highly refined and that takes a lot of dirty energy to produce.  The vast majority of nickel is in Russia or Ukraine where we're not going to access it anytime soon. Copper has to be mined in vast quantities and processed and it too is getting harder to source. 
The point about the difference between green tech and fossil fuels is we have no problem sourcing fossil fuels, but green tech supply lines are strung out all over the world ..It's supply and demand and demand is outstripping supply. It's just one of many reasons we're still having wars and there are very likely going to be more wars on the way for the supplies. 
Hey, if we could all meet and sing kumbya and get along great our problems are solved, but...Last time I checked that ain't happening. 
We still have more than enough countries incapable of using green tech and even more who can't afford it. The planet just keeps getting hotter in the meantime. 

You can do things that have an impact other than change the entire infrastructure to support non fossil fuels. 

As I mentioned above, the government could regulate plastic use, companies could use work from home as an option to limit carbon emissions, etc. 

There are smaller steps to be done until the eventual big steps are ready. 

[need2mellowout]

(07-21-2022, 07:34 PM)Stewy Wrote: It's early days yet.  The peak of the season is in mid-September.

Note where mid July falls on this chart.

You're right, it's way too early.  Also I live in South Florida and it seems we've been getting a lot of Saharan dust this year and it interferes with storm development.  However, I worry how bad this season is going to be.  I spent a lot of time this past week at Ft. Lauderdale beach and the ocean water was hot.  That's what fuels the storms and it has me worried for this season.  

[Stewy]

(07-26-2022, 12:32 PM)need2mellowout Wrote: You're right, it's way too early.  Also I live in South Florida and it seems we've been getting a lot of Saharan dust this year and it interferes with storm development.  However, I worry how bad this season is going to be.  I spent a lot of time this past week at Ft. Lauderdale beach and the ocean water was hot.  That's what fuels the storms and it has me worried for this season.  

I live in Houston - I feel your worry.

[jfkbengals]

Pretty sure Hurricanes passed through RVA both yesterday evening and 2 o'clock this afternoon.

Can't saw I've ever seen it storm like that around here and not be a tropical storm or greater...

[samhain]

It's not hurricane related, but storms and flooding are pounding eastern Kentucky right now, The state went from almost a month of barely any rainfall to monsoons every other day. I have a couple of friends in Letcher county that people were making facebooks posts for to confirm their safety. I don't recall anything like this in my adult life.

[fredtoast]

(07-29-2022, 12:57 PM)samhain Wrote: It's not hurricane related, but storms and flooding are pounding eastern Kentucky right now,  The state went from almost a month of barely any rainfall to monsoons every other day.  I have a couple of friends in Letcher county that people were making facebooks posts for to confirm their safety.  I don't recall anything like this in my adult life.

My Dad's family is mainly from Breathitt County.  I have been seeing a lot of footage from Jackson on the news.