7 Winners & 3 Losers From Week 2 Against The Giants

[Nicomo Cosca]

(08-23-2022, 01:58 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Yards per attempt is dependent on completion percentage.  You can attempt a lot of deep passes but if you don't complete a high percentage you will have a low average per attempt.

What you should really look at is yards per completion.  In 2020 Allen actually had a higher average per completion (10.3) than Burrow (10.2).

Allen's career average per completion is 10.9 which is not far off of Burrow's 11.6.

Stop it.

[casear2727]

(08-23-2022, 01:58 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Yards per attempt is dependent on completion percentage.  You can attempt a lot of deep passes but if you don't complete a high percentage you will have a low average per attempt.

What you should really look at is yards per completion.  In 2020 Allen actually had a higher average per completion (10.3) than Burrow (10.2).

Allen's career average per completion is 10.9 which is not far off of Burrow's 11.6.

Which proves you are wrong again as Allen isnt in the same hemisphere as Burrow.  If your stat should be looked at then the numbers wouldnt be close... 

[*SHRacerX*]

(08-22-2022, 11:09 AM)bfine32 Wrote: LOSER: Whoever decided not to plat starters but left Dax out there all night.

I don't think they can afford to play Dax the final preseason game, and the defense will suffer for it.  

[TheFan]

(08-23-2022, 12:42 AM)Frank Booth Wrote: Spain was actually good. Not just bengals good, he was league wide good.

The bengals have a weak spot at LG this season

I didn't mean it as a dig at Spain and as stated by you and Whatever, I also didn't recall him being the weak spot of the line. I do feel like he struggled more later in the season but I could be remembering incorrectly or thinking of Hopkins.

Again though, Spain was probably our 2nd best last year (after Reiff went down) which is why our oline was so bad. If the Oline is anything like what we think, his play would hopefully be the worst of this year's Oline. If that's true I think we'll be okay if Volson can get close to Spains level of play last year. 

I also don't get why we haven't just signed Spain though. 

[*ochocincos*]

(08-22-2022, 11:09 PM)QueenCity Wrote: Above my pay grade... just needs to be better than last year sir.

The new troops should also help alleviate the pressure you'd think.

The OL as a whole should be better than last year.
I'm not sure LG specifically though will be better.
Jonah Williams is still there at LT, so no change there.
After the bye and definitely in the postseason, Trey Hopkins was the team's best pass blocker. I'm not sure Karras is a better pass blocker than Hopkins when Hopkins is healthy.
So the spots to each side of LG really aren't changed, if not actually a slight downgrade when it comes to pass blocking.
There's nothing that I've seen so far this preseason that indicates Carman or Volson will be better than Spain was last year.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-22-2022, 10:44 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: I would like to see this compared with every decent rookie starting on the OL in the NFL instead of Joe Frickin' Thuney 
though for God sake...

I honestly don't know what a lot of you guys were expecting...

He played better than I expected in his first action against NFL starters. 

I thought he would struggle more than he did early. Carman also didn't play near as bad as others have said.

Prince was terrible in his one start, Adeniji terrible in his first start and so was Trey Hill. D'Ante had a couple bad penalties.

This is what I expected with Volson.
He'd do some things well, but he'd definitely have some struggles at times.

The problem I have is this is not the level I want for a starter for a Super Bowl team.

I'm happy for Volson and also even Carman to be the backup OGs this season while they continue development and even get some spot reps.
I'd like for someone else to be added that can give the fans more confidence the spot is solidified for this season.

[fredtoast]

(08-23-2022, 09:26 AM)ochocincos Wrote: The OL as a whole should be better than last year.
I'm not sure LG specifically though will be better.

This.

I'd like to have a more dependable vet at LG, but with the skill players we have we don't need an elite O-line to excel.  

Overall, our O-line will be greatly improved, and our offense should be much better.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-23-2022, 09:34 AM)fredtoast Wrote: This.

I'd like to have a more dependable vet at LG, but with the skill players we have we don't need an elite O-line to excel.  

Overall, our O-line will be greatly improved, and our offense should be much better.

Exactly.

And that's why I'd be ok with Spain back.
He was the team's 2nd best OL through the regular season, the 3rd best in the postseason.
He was rather consistent.
As the team's 4th or 5th best OL starter, that's good.
Getting Spain back would mean that spot is now downgraded at all, and the right side of the OL is a clear upgrade from last year.

[Au165]

(08-23-2022, 09:39 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Exactly.

And that's why I'd be ok with Spain back.
He was the team's 2nd best OL through the regular season, the 3rd best in the postseason.
He was rather consistent.
As the team's 4th or 5th best OL starter, that's good.
Getting Spain back would mean that spot is now downgraded at all, and the right side of the OL is a clear upgrade from last year.

I think they really want a young guy somewhere on the line. The financial templates for team building kind of require at least someone on a rookie contract manning a spot or two on the O line. You have Jonah for this year and I think they really want to make it work with Carman or Volson so they have that financial stability there for a couple years. 

[*ochocincos*]

(08-23-2022, 10:10 AM)Au165 Wrote: I think they really want a young guy somewhere on the line. The financial templates for team building kind of require at least someone on a rookie contract manning a spot or two on the O line. You have Jonah for this year and I think they really want to make it work with Carman or Volson so they have that financial stability there for a couple years. 

Carman's cap hit is $1.7 mill this season.
Spain's cap hit last year was just under $1 mill.

So even if you have a veteran, they can still be cheaper than someone on rookie contract.

I'm probably being paranoid, but I get nightmares about the team just rolling with Michael Jordan at LG because he was cheap and young. "Oh, he'll come around," they said. We all know how that ended.
I don't want to see anything similar to that again with the guys the Bengals currently have on the roster.

[Au165]

(08-23-2022, 10:21 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Carman's cap hit is $1.7 mill this season.
Spain's cap hit last year was just under $1 mill.

So even if you have a veteran, they can still be cheaper than someone on rookie contract.

I'm probably being paranoid, but I get nightmares about the team just rolling with Michael Jordan at LG because he was cheap and young. "Oh, he'll come around," they said. We all know how that ended.
I don't want to see anything similar to that again with the guys the Bengals currently have on the roster.

Right, but they need a longer term solution at that small number. Running in vets repeatedly doesn't give them the stability to project out. The only way you develop guys is let them get real reps. Carman got some last year and Volson needs some, but just running out for a stop gap vet every time someone screws up doesn't allow you to actually find long term answers. 

I am just telling you most teams want 2 guys on rookie contracts on the O line to make the cap work. It's always been part of the template teams use and having the rookie QB contract lets you get away with not doing it you will need it when Burrow get's his deal or else we are going to have to go really young somewhere else.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(08-23-2022, 10:21 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Carman's cap hit is $1.7 mill this season.
Spain's cap hit last year was just under $1 mill.

So even if you have a veteran, they can still be cheaper than someone on rookie contract.

You aren’t getting Spain for anywhere near that cheap after last year. He can literally just sit on the couch and wait for an injury, and for some team to come calling.

I doubt you’re getting any other decent veteran for that price either. Spain was one of the best bargains in the entire league last season.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-23-2022, 10:25 AM)Au165 Wrote: Right, but they need a longer term solution at that small number. Running in vets repeatedly doesn't give them the stability to project out. The only way you develop guys is let them get real reps. Carman got some last year and Volson needs some, but just running out for a stop gap vet every time someone screws up doesn't allow you to actually find long term answers. 

I am just telling you most teams want 2 guys on rookie contracts on the O line to make the cap work. It's always been part of the template teams use and having the rookie QB contract lets you get away with not doing it you will need it when Burrow get's his deal or else we are going to have to go really young somewhere else.

Yea I get all that.

I just hate the fact that the risk has to be taken for the sake of long-term development when the Bengals are probably at their best window for winning a Super Bowl.

Let's be realistic, there's a decent chance this window only lasts for a couple years and then it's going to start closing once this core begins signing big deals.
And I haven't trusted the Bengals to draft/develop OL in years.

[Frank Booth]

(08-23-2022, 10:21 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Carman's cap hit is $1.7 mill this season.
Spain's cap hit last year was just under $1 mill.

So even if you have a veteran, they can still be cheaper than someone on rookie contract.

I'm probably being paranoid, but I get nightmares about the team just rolling with Michael Jordan at LG because he was cheap and young. "Oh, he'll come around," they said. We all know how that ended.
I don't want to see anything similar to that again with the guys the Bengals currently have on the roster.

This is the bengals super bowl window. Right now.

Unfortunately, this is the most stacked the AFC has ever been probably since the 70’s. Now is not the time to fool around with 4th round rookie development. Bring in a safety valve like Spain, and have Volson be the main back up to the guards.

Teams with great D-lines and D-tackles will exploit Volson and Carman all day.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-23-2022, 10:30 AM)Frank Booth Wrote: This is the bengals super bowl window. Right now.

Unfortunately, this is the most stacked the AFC has ever been probably since the 70’s. Now is not the time to fool around with 4th round rookie development. Bring in a safety valve like Spain, and have Volson be the main back up to the guards.

Teams with great D-lines and D-tackles will exploit Volson and Carman all day.

Yep.

And many of the playoff-caliber AFC teams have good DTs.

BUF - Ed Oliver
KC - Chris Jones
TEN - Jeffery Simmons
IND - DeForest Buckner

Steelers may not make the playoffs but they have Heyward and now Ogunjobi.

If I were a DC, Volson/Carman would be my focus.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-23-2022, 10:28 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: You aren’t getting Spain for anywhere near that cheap after last year. He can literally just sit on the couch and wait for an injury, and for some team to come calling.

I doubt you’re getting any other decent veteran for that price either. Spain was one of the best bargains in the entire league last season.

He may not sign for that cheap, but he's likely not getting $5+ mill. His window to get that was during FA, and no one signed him.

He's definitely worth giving up to $3 mill for a stopgap by some team, and that's still cheap for a starting OL.

[KillerGoose]

(08-23-2022, 01:58 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Yards per attempt is dependent on completion percentage.  You can attempt a lot of deep passes but if you don't complete a high percentage you will have a low average per attempt.

What you should really look at is yards per completion.  In 2020 Allen actually had a higher average per completion (10.3) than Burrow (10.2).

Allen's career average per completion is 10.9 which is not far off of Burrow's 11.6.

The best metric to use for this debate is average air yards per attempt. It doesn't account for whether it is caught or not, it is just the yards traveled on the pass. Brandon Allen averages 6.8 air yards per attempt. For reference, Burrow averages 8.1 air yards per attempt. Since 2019, Allen ranks 65th out of 72 qualified QBs in this metric. 

An important note is that this isn't proof that Allen is bad. There are QBs down here around Allen that are decent/good QBs, such as Brees, Jimmy G., and Herbert. So, long story short is that Allen doesn't push the ball down the field as much, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing by itself. 

[fredtoast]

(08-23-2022, 10:53 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: The best metric to use for this debate is average air yards per attempt. It doesn't account for whether it is caught or not, it is just the yards traveled on the pass. Brandon Allen averages 6.8 air yards per attempt. For reference, Burrow averages 8.1 air yards per attempt. Since 2019, Allen ranks 65th out of 72 qualified QBs in this metric. 

An important note is that this isn't proof that Allen is bad. There are QBs down here around Allen that are decent/good QBs, such as Brees, Jimmy G., and Herbert. So, long story short is that Allen doesn't push the ball down the field as much, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing by itself. 

Good post.  "Average air yards" is a more accurate metric, but I could not find anything other than single season stats.

I do question how much is required for a QB to qualify if there are 72 since 2019.  But that is okay in this instance because we are talking about a back up.  He is not going to have a lot of attempts.

[Au165]

(08-23-2022, 10:41 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Yep.

And many of the playoff-caliber AFC teams have good DTs.

BUF - Ed Oliver
KC - Chris Jones
TEN - Jeffery Simmons
IND - DeForest Buckner

Steelers may not make the playoffs but they have Heyward and now Ogunjobi.

If I were a DC, Volson/Carman would be my focus.

Here is the thing, you can have one weak spot you can't have multiples. Ted being a vet will be very beneficial to whomever lines up at LG. In the majority of cases you have four man rushes which means there is always an extra blocker. Add into that many passing plays have the HB in a check and release call so you have a 6th if needed. There is plenty of ways to get the LG help if we need it. We are way overblowing the idea that LG (which by the way is the least important position on the line) means certain doom if not changed out.

Now if Jonah or Ted go down and we have to plug an inexperienced guy on either side of the LG that could be an issue.

[KillerGoose]

(08-23-2022, 11:00 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Good post.  "Average air yards" is a more accurate metric, but I could not find anything other than single season stats.

I do question how much is required for a QB to qualify if there are 72 since 2019.  But that is okay in this instance because we are talking about a back up.  He is not going to have a lot of attempts.

Yeah, I use nflfastR to gather my data. It is a NFL data library that can be accessed by a programming language called R. I filtered for QBs with a minimum of 100 attempts, I meant to include that in my original post. I could have raised that without issue, Allen has 200+ attempts since 2019.