What Vegas and the National Media is not talking about

[*rfaulk34*]

(08-30-2022, 01:18 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Thank god someone finally has the guts to admit it.

If it was just about talent then guys like Rodgers and Brady would be converting these throws.  But it isn't.  Teams defending a third and 25 play differently.  I guess you could say the "luck" involved in this specific play was the Chiefs blitzing and leaving Chase in single coverage.

But just like none of you would be able to point to the "luck" involved in a ten-year-old making a perfect 60 foot shot on a basketball court ("It's just perfect execution.  No luck involved. Derp.") the fact that it almost never happens is proof that there is more involved than just skill.  If it was just skill then the most skilled players would be successful at it.  But they are not.

There you go creating stuff again. No one said it was just about talent. You just made that up. The argument is you saying it was "luck" or a "fluke". It was a combination of a bad call on defense and a great play by a QB and WR. Luck had nothing to do with it. 

[fredtoast]

(08-30-2022, 01:33 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: There you go creating stuff again. No one said it was just about talent. You just made that up. 

I did not make up anything.

I bet I can quote a dozen posts that say it was just "perfect execution" or "skill" or "talent" or ANYTHING BUT luck.

[*rfaulk34*]

(08-30-2022, 01:38 AM)fredtoast Wrote: I did not make up anything.

I bet I can quote a dozen posts that say it was just "perfect execution" or "skill" or "talent" or ANYTHING BUT luck.

Please do that.

Even 1 will be fine.

[*Synric*]

(08-30-2022, 01:38 AM)fredtoast Wrote: I did not make up anything.

I bet I can quote a dozen posts that say it was just "perfect execution" or "skill" or "talent" or ANYTHING BUT luck.

Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.

The Chiefs defense allowed the opportunity for the Bengals to attack the 1 on 1 man coverage mismatch Chase vs Ward with the defense they ran on 3rd and 27. Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase were prepared for zero blitz opportunities and capitalized.

[Bengalholic]

(08-30-2022, 01:39 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Please do that.

Even 1 will be fine.

I used to term 'perfect execution' in post 241 and explained why. I went into more detail in post 265. Of course, he continues to ignore all that and just focuses on his 'lucky' argument. 

For some weird reason, he can't bring himself to just say 'damn, that was a great play by the Bengals'. Instead, he's spending way too much effort trying to discredit it. Just bizarre.

[fredtoast]

(08-30-2022, 01:39 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Please do that.

Even 1 will be fine.

So if I do you will apologize for accusing me of "making stuff up"?

I am not going to scan 14 pages for nothing.

[fredtoast]

Simple question for all of you. I need to get your answers for the record.

If the Bengals face 3rd-and-25 ten times this year how many do they convert?

[Bengalholic]

(08-30-2022, 02:22 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Simple question for all of you.  I need to get your answers for the record.

If the Bengals face 3rd-and-25 ten times this year how many do they convert?

Far too generic of a question. Too many unknown factors.

[*Synric*]

(08-30-2022, 02:22 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Simple question for all of you.  I need to get your answers for the record.

If the Bengals face 3rd-and-25 ten times this year how many do they convert?

That's Hyperbole. 

We aren't talking about EVERY 3rd and 27 only that one play. In that situation the Chiefs ran a defense that allowed a 1 on 1 matchup with Ward and Chase and Joe Burrow recognized and capitalized.

Your argument is that because converting a 3rd in 25+ is rare the only reason the Bengals converted it was random luck and that's a false equivalency.

[Soonerpeace]

(08-30-2022, 01:18 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Thank god someone finally has the guts to admit it.

If it was just about talent then guys like Rodgers and Brady would be converting these throws.  But it isn't.  Teams defending a third and 25 play differently.  I guess you could say the "luck" involved in this specific play was the Chiefs blitzing and leaving Chase in single coverage.

But just like none of you would be able to point to the "luck" involved in a ten-year-old making a perfect 60 foot shot on a basketball court ("It's just perfect execution.  No luck involved. Derp.") the fact that it almost never happens is proof that there is more involved than just skill.  If it was just skill then the most skilled players would be successful at it.  But they are not.

I’ll concede that converting a 3rd and 25 is long odds. But you act like last year we’d do it every game every quarter. The Bengals went on the road, were underdogs each game, and delivered in the clutch time after time. If you want to say they really gelled in the latter part of the season that’d be correct.

[*PhilHos*]

(08-29-2022, 06:24 PM)fredtoast Wrote: How do you define/identify "luck"?  

I already listed the definition of luck. Nowhere does it mention rarity.

(08-29-2022, 06:24 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Actually "rarity" is the best way to identify luck when you have a large sample set of equal factors. I say that if the most skilled players in the world can accomplish a feat less than one in a hundred times then luck has more to do with it than just skill. 

Ok, so Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase are the only ones in the NFL that were able to complete a 30 yard pass in the last 4 years? And they only did it once? Oh wait, no they didn't. They did it multiple times. Hell you posted in the Sports Illustrated list that Burrow completed 7 TD passes of 30 yards or more. Since, completing 30 yard passes (or more) at least 7 times, doesn't seem all that unusual for Burrow and Chase, I don't know why you'd attribute this completion to luck as opposed to skill.

[*PhilHos*]

(08-29-2022, 06:52 PM)fredtoast Wrote: You are the one ignoring the FACTS that show that you can't compare every long pass to long passes completed against a defense facing a 3rd-and-25.

I have posted the numbers many times.  Why are you ignoring them?  Maybe this will help.

Why are you lying? I have not ignored them. In fact, I've taken you at your word that the stats you've posted are correct. 

In addition, I've asked questions about them that you refuse to answer. The only one ignoring anything is you. So, I would appreciate it if you wouldn't lie and then project your failings onto me. Thanks.

(08-29-2022, 06:52 PM)fredtoast Wrote: You are the one ignoring the FACTS that show that you can't compare every long pass to long passes completed against a defense facing a 3rd-and-25.

I have posted the numbers many times.  Why are you ignoring them?  Maybe this will help.

Completions of 25+ yards over the last 4 NFL seasons

.............................total......... on 3rd-and-25+
Mahomes............... 157......... 0 (5 attempts)
Brady..................... 146......... 0 (5)
Rodgers................. 145......... 0 (7)
Wilson................... 134.......... 0 (3)
Carr....................... 134.......... 0 (5)
Cousins.................. 131......... 0 (6)
Goff....................... 121......... 0 (3)
Stafford................. 119.......... 0 (2)
Ryan..................... 117........... 0 (2)
Mayfield................. 106......... 0 (2)
Prescott................. 105......... 0 (3)
Watson.................. 105......... 0 (2)
Allen...................... 104......... 0 (5)
Wentz....................  96.......... 0 (2)
Rivers....................  95.......... 0 (3)


Get it nnow?  You can't compare all long completions to completions against a team defending a 3rd-and-25.

Let me channel my inner fred here: if 3rd and 25 defense is guaranteed to stop all passes, why don't teams just use 3rd and 25 defenses all the time? Or at least in obvious passing situations?

Let me just leave this here:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/why-the-kc-chiefs-called-a-blitz-on-third-and-27-and-how-the-bengals-exploited-it/ar-AASuVN6
"Hindsight is 20-20, right?" defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo said Wednesday in response to that question. "The thinking was we were addressing that play as a third-and-6."


So, in actuality, it wasn't a "3rd-and-25 defense". It was a 3rd-and-6 defense. How many times have QBs converted 3rd and 6s in the last 4 years? 

[*PhilHos*]

(08-29-2022, 07:00 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: Yeah, converting a 3rd and 27 with a great pass and great catch in a critical situation was truly an outstanding feat. 

Why can't you just admit that it was a great play with great execution...instead of going to these extremes to discredit it?

Obviously, fred's trolling at this point. But, I gotta admit, I find it entertaining (and it gives me something to do when it's slow here at work)

[*PhilHos*]

(08-30-2022, 02:41 AM)Synric Wrote: That's Hyperbole. 

We aren't talking about EVERY 3rd and 27 only that one play. In that situation the Chiefs ran a defense that allowed a 1 on 1 matchup with Ward and Chase and Joe Burrow recognized and capitalized.

Your argument is that because converting a 3rd in 25+ is rare the only reason the Bengals converted it was random luck and that's a false equivalency.

THANK YOU.

And he continues his absurdity by comparing it to a kid making a full court shot in basketball. The completion wasn't some herculean feat seen so rarely, it might as well be a clear picture of the Loch Ness monster. It was a completion that Burrow and Chase had made multiple times last season. Sure, this was the only one that happened on 3rd and 27, but again, it's not akin to a kid making a half court shot.

I'll give him credit, though, for his consistency by calling every single record breaking play in NFL history the result solely of luck and not due to tremendous skill and maximum effort.

[fredtoast]

(08-30-2022, 02:22 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Simple question for all of you.  I need to get your answers for the record.

If the Bengals face 3rd-and-25 ten times this year how many do they convert?

(08-30-2022, 02:29 AM)Bengalholic Wrote: Far too generic of a question. Too many unknown factors.

Well I will give Holic credit for not running and hiding like the rest of the crowd here who have been accusing me of trolling.

So what "unknown" factors do you need to know before you can decide how often the Bengals will converts 3rd-and-25?

C'mon Phil, Faulk, Synric I need to get your answers on the record.

[fredtoast]

(08-30-2022, 09:46 AM)PhilHos Wrote: Obviously, fred's trolling at this point. But, I gotta admit, I find it entertaining (and it gives me something to do when it's slow here at work)

Why do you claim am trolling?

Pretty much every NFL fan everywhere will admit that converting a 3rd-and-25 happens so rarely that there has to be some luck involved.  They don't ignore reality like you all are doing.

So instead of just hurling personal insults at me why not be a man and answer my question about how often the Bengals will be converting 3rd-and-25 in the future.

[*bfine32*]

Why are folks still feeding this troll?

Just tell him he's right and let's get back to sensible conversations (well as sensible as they can be)

[fredtoast]

(08-30-2022, 11:15 AM)bfine32 Wrote: Why are folks still feeding this troll?  

Just tell him he's right and let's get back to sensible conversations (well as sensible as they can be)

If Bengals face 3rd-and-25 ten times this year how many do you predict they convert?

BTW I think you will get your wish.  This question I asked will keep a lot of people from posting in this thread anymore.

[*PhilHos*]

(08-30-2022, 11:09 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Why do you claim am trolling?

Because you ignore most of my arguments and keep repeating yourself.

(08-30-2022, 11:09 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Pretty much every NFL fan everywhere will admit that converting a 3rd-and-25 happens so rarely that there has to be some luck involved.  They don't ignore reality like you all are doing.

Except I posted the video and asked for you to show where the luck was. You refuse to do so and instead rely solely on the 3rd-and-27 fact. The only one ignoring reality is you.

(08-30-2022, 11:09 AM)fredtoast Wrote: So instead of just hurling personal insults at me why not be a man and answer my question about how often the Bengals will be converting 3rd-and-25 in the future.

Why should I? You've refused to answer most of mine (another example of trolling; not answering my questions and then demanding I answer yours).

[KillerGoose]

I don't think the 3rd and 27 play was lucky, just improbable. Maybe the Bengals were lucky that KC played the defense they did, but that is as far as I would go. The Chiefs played a risky defense and Burrow/Chase played up to their strengths to make a play. The beauty of sports is making improbable plays.

Since 1999, there have been 1,118 third downs with >= 25 yards to go. Only 25 of them have been converted, or 2.2%. A very rare thing indeed.