Vegas Thinks Our Offense Is Middle Of The Road!

[BFritz21]

I just received an email from Draft Sharks and it has Vegas setting our offense at about 16th for average points per game for the season.

It has us at 23.3 points per game, which Buffalo is in the at the top with only 27 ppg, so it's not that big of a jump.

You might need to be a member to view (I tried to copy and paste), but here's the list.

1. Bills
2. Chiefs
3. Bucs (it makes me feel good because that means Brady will have a big year and I drafted him in a fantasy league, which the run on QBs started right after my pick, so there was like 8 QBs taken before I could get Brady).

I'd bet that we finish better than 16th and I think we'll easily be top ten.

We scored 27.1 last season (which was 7th), and we've improved our offensive line, so how are we projected that low?

[Frank Booth]

Prob factoring injures and o-line depth quality

[fredtoast]

This makes no sense at all.

We make big upgrades to the O-line and replace Uzo with Hayden Hurst which is a wash. Yet we are projected to drop by 3.8 points per game which is 30th in the league.

Do we play a lot of great defenses this year?

[Frank Booth]

(08-23-2022, 01:44 AM)fredtoast Wrote: This makes no sense at all.

We make big upgrades to the O-line and replace Uzo with Hayden Hurst which is a wash. Yet we are projected to drop by 3.8 points per game which is 30th in the league.

Do we play a lot of great defenses this year?

If he’s a wash then why mention it?

And you’re gonna see how much of a “wash” it is when Uzomah puts up <350 yards while Hurst puts up 500+

[Clark W Griswold]

They are probably factoring in a much tougher schedule.
They are rating them too low but that’s the only factor that would make them think they would be worse this season.

[fredtoast]

(08-23-2022, 02:05 AM)Frank Booth Wrote: If he’s a wash then why mention it?

Because I was covering every change to our offense.

(08-23-2022, 02:05 AM)Frank Booth Wrote: And you’re gonna see how much of a “wash” it is when Uzomah puts up <350 yards while Hurst puts up 500+

What Uzomah does this year has nothing to do with if it is a "wash" or not.  We are comparing the '21 Bengals to the '22 Bengals.  The '22 Jets have nothing to do with it.

Hurst will probably have a few more yards than Uzomah had last year because the '22 team will probably have a lot more total passing yards than the '21 team.  But as long as our top 3 WRs stay healthy it won't be a big difference.

[casear2727]

(08-23-2022, 02:38 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Because I was covering every change to our offense.




What Uzomah does this year has nothing to do with if it is a "wash" or not.  We are comparing the '21 Bengals to the '22 Bengals.  The '22 Jets have nothing to do with it.

Hurst will probably have a few more yards than Uzomah had last year because the '22 team will probably have a lot more total passing yards than the '21 team.  But as long as our top 3 WRs stay healthy it won't be a big difference.

Hurst is way more the playmaker than CJ - and not only does it matter in receiving yards but redzone offense and opening up other opportunities. CJ wasnt a threat and Hurst very well could be.  

[fredtoast]

(08-23-2022, 07:16 AM)casear2727 Wrote: Hurst is way more the playmaker than CJ - and not only does it matter in receiving yards but redzone offense and opening up other opportunities. CJ wasnt a threat and Hurst very well could be.  

Hurst appears to be a better route runner but he is not "way more the playmaker".  Since 2018 when Hurst entered the league Uzo has played 7 fewer games but has more total receptions (127 to 125) and more receptions of 20+ yards (16 to 13).  He also has more yards per game and more tds per game.  Hurst's average per reception is just slightly better (10.4 to 9.9).

[WeezyBengal]

I think this has more to do with the matchups than the Bengals offense itself.

The Bengals put up 41 on the depleted Ravens and Steelers 3 times last year. I'd almost guarantee that doesn't happen again this year.

[AlphaBengal]

Strength of schedule is much higher. Baltimore's secondary is back healthy so we aren't going to light them up like we did last year. We do have a much improved line but Burrow already completed 70% of his passes last year, which is incredible. Do people think that's actually going to improve? Chase had 1500 yards and 13 TDs as a rookie, can he get much better statistically? Joe Mixon, 1300 yards, 13 TDs, same scenario.

I just feel like people are setting themselves up to be disappointed with unrealistic expectations, and if Collins or Cappa or Williams goes down, we're screwed again on the line. So depth factors in too.

Edit: Also, on quick look virtually all the good offensive teams last year are projected lower, so it's not a Bengals thing. Tampa, LAC, LAR, Dallas, etc.

[casear2727]

(08-23-2022, 01:02 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Hurst appears to be a better route runner but he is not "way more the playmaker".  Since 2018 when Hurst entered the league Uzo has played 7 fewer games but has more total receptions (127 to 125) and more receptions of 20+ yards (16 to 13).  He also has more yards per game and more tds per game.  Hurst's average per reception is just slightly better (10.4 to 9.9).

Followed Hurst since his 1st year at SC, he is way more athletic than CJ and it wont take long for fuddy old farts like you to be on the bandwagon.  DH.

[fredtoast]

(08-23-2022, 03:12 PM)casear2727 Wrote: Followed Hurst since his 1st year at SC, he is way more athletic than CJ and it wont take long for fuddy old farts like you to be on the bandwagon.  DH.

I don't care about "athletic".  All I care about is production on the field.  So far Hurst has not shown he is better than Uzomah.

[Frank Booth]

(08-23-2022, 03:27 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I don't care about "athletic".  All I care about is production on the field.  So far Hurst has not shown he is better than Uzomah.

Uzomah will never match Hurst's 2020

[fredtoast]

(08-23-2022, 03:29 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: Uzomah will never match Hurst's 2020

Comparing Hurst '20 to Uzo '21 looks pretty much like a wash to me.

Hurst (56 for 571) had slightly more catches and yards than CJ (49 for 493).

CJ made more big plays (20+ yds) than Hurst (7 to 5), and had a significantly higher catch percentage (77.8 to 63.6) and "yards-per-target" (7.8 to 6.5) than Hurst.

Average per catch and tds are almost identical (Uzo 10.1 and 5, Hurst 10.2 and 6).

Hurst should have a great year playing in the '22 Bengals offense, but so would CJ.

[Frank Booth]

(08-23-2022, 03:44 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Comparing Hurst '20 to Uzo '21 looks pretty much like a wash to me.

Hurst (56 for 571) had slightly more catches and yards than CJ (49 for 493).

CJ made more big plays (20+ yds) than Hurst (7 to 5), and had a significantly higher catch percentage (77.8 to 63.6) and "yards-per-target" (7.8 to 6.5) than Hurst.

Average per catch and tds are almost identical (Uzo 10.1 and 5, Hurst 10.2 and 6).

Hurst should have a great year playing in the '22 Bengals offense, but so would CJ.

Hurst did it in a bad offense 

and Hurst's dropped passes per target percentage in 2020 was 4.5%

Uzomah's in 2021 was 6.3% 

Advantage Hurst

Hursts dropped passes per target percentage in 2021? 0%

I repeat, ZERO PERCENT

so less dropped passes per target with a qb that isnt as accurate as Burrow, and a career year that is better than Uzomah's best. 

[fredtoast]

(08-23-2022, 03:49 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: Hurst did it in a bad offense 

and Hursts dropped passes per target percentage in 2020 was 4.5%


Uzomah's in 2021 was 6.3% 

Advantage Hurst

I will give you that.  A difference of 1.8% over 63 targets means one drop per season.

So like I said, pretty much a wash.

[Frank Booth]

(08-23-2022, 03:53 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I will give you that.  A difference of 1.8% over 63 targets means one drop per season.

So like I said, pretty much a wash.

zero dropped passes in 2021

safe to say Hurst has the better hands

Though Uzomah is a better blocker than Hurst

[fredtoast]

(08-23-2022, 03:56 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: zero dropped passes in 2021

safe to say Hurst has the better hands

Though Uzomah is a better blocker than Hurst

I like Hurst.  I just don't think he is a big upgrade over CJ.

But when you look at the difference in pay we got a much better bargain. 

[*Synric*]

(08-23-2022, 04:00 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I like Hurst.  I just don't think he is a big upgrade over CJ.

But when you look at the difference in pay we got a much better bargain. 

Hurst might be a slightly better receiver than CJ but the difference is minimal. The big difference in the two is CJ Uzomah is a much much better blocker than Hayden Hurst which is a very important part of a Tight Ends job.


Edit: Honestly I wanted Tyler Conklin but he also signed with the Jets and is beating CJ out for TE1 making less money.

[WeezyBengal]

(08-23-2022, 03:49 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: Hurst did it in a bad offense 

and Hurst's dropped passes per target percentage in 2020 was 4.5%

Uzomah's in 2021 was 6.3% 

Advantage Hurst

Hursts dropped passes per target percentage in 2021? 0%

I repeat, ZERO PERCENT

so less dropped passes per target with a qb that isnt as accurate as Burrow, and a career year that is better than Uzomah's best. 

They are both average tight ends who aren't going to provide a ton offensively. This offense isn't built around tight ends, so who even cares?

Main thing is Hurst costs about 21 million less than CJ. The fact that someone gave him 3 years 24 million is hilarious to me.