Confession of a Dalton Defender

[Shake n Blake]

(05-25-2015, 11:45 PM)bfine32 Wrote: 25th rated would be "average" if there were around 48-52 starting NFL QBs.

Would 15th and 13th be considered "above average" then? Those were his rankings in the previous 2 years, but the anti-Dalton crowd didn't care much for the passer rating stat back then. It was all about the 20 INT's that Dalton threw in 2013. That was the only stat that mattered.

Dalton had a pretty bad season in 2014, I think we can all agree there. Did injuries to MLJ, Eifert and AJ have an effect on his numbers? Probably. Unless you just like looking at things with no perspective. I get that the Dalton Anti-Fan Club loathes legitimate excuses because they take some wind out of the sails of their arguments, but I'm sure throwing to guys like Little and Tate didn't help Dalton's numbers. Nevermind how the offense predictably began throwing to Gio more (getting Gio blown up a few times in the process).

Dalton is somewhere around average as an NFL QB, if he's worse than average, it's not by much. I'd love to upgrade at the most important position (aside from HC). I was arguing with people over at the other board about Philip Rivers being "too old" at age 33. I'd love to trade for Rivers. But the only way Dalton can be upgraded is if we trade for a good established starter or trade up for a top QB prospect.

If (with healthy receivers) he continues to produce like he did last year, I'd be fine with giving McCarron or Pryor a look.

[djs7685]

(05-26-2015, 01:12 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: A consensus to something actually doesn't make it true. If that was the case then the earth would be flat, because back in the day everyone thought it was flat.

Okay, so you're just being intentionally combative. Noted.

(05-26-2015, 01:17 PM)PhilHos Wrote: But how great are they if they continue to shit the bed in the playoffs?

I just don't understand why better players are held to lower standards. It should be the opposite. Think of it this way: you have 2 kids, twins, and they take all the same classes. One is always getting A's the other is always getting C's. On their final exam, they both get Fs. According to some Bengals fans, you should ream out the C student and punish them severely and the A student should just be like, "Meh," Seriously? I just don't get it.

I think it's a big leap to bring up an analogy of my children's test scores and what I think about the potential of a QB of the team I root for on Sundays. I do understand what you're trying to say with that, but those are two completely different situations. Let me try to explain my point a bit more and you may understand where I'm coming from.

In both scenarios, let's say that Andy's track record in the playoffs is exactly how it is right now. 4 games, none of them good, most/all of them terrible.

If I ask you why I should believe in Andy and all you have is 1 or 2 months out of his entire career to look at that he played very well in, then I'm going to be a bit skeptical.

If he was putting up Philip Rivers' numbers in the regular season but then coming up short in the playoffs, I wouldn't even have to ask anybody to give me reasons to believe in the guy. It would be obvious.

Andy hasn't really put together anything in his career that shows that 2015 will be any different than the last few seasons. If he had a 100 passer rating last year but still crapped out in the playoffs, at least I'd be able to point to his regular season success as something to be hopeful for, and maybe he could turn that into playoff success as well. There isn't much past a couple of months throughout a 4 year career that points to him becoming a good enough QB to overcome less than ideal scenarios put in front of him.

These aren't grades on a test, they're professional sports, and if there are any significant injuries or coaching mishaps this coming season, Andy hasn't shown much to make me believe he'll be able to overcome that.

[Shake n Blake]

To OP, even though I realize that Pryor will probably never be a legit starter, I can't help but be interested in his physical talent.

I'm hoping we keep 3 QB's this year and I can't wait to see what Pryor and McCarron look like this preseason. Hopefully we have a diamond in the rough, ala Brady or Romo.

[t3r3e3]

(05-26-2015, 11:43 AM)spazz70 Wrote: Same as above...Please name the QB to replace him...I will await your answer...I almost put money on it that Mariota and Winston do not have the success that Dalton has had and they were the 1 and 2 picks in this year's draft...Ohio State exposed Mariota as a one read QB that everyone knows never works in the NFL and Winston's head will probably explode in the next couple of years..

It's far too premature to say how Winston and Mariota will turn out. Winston appears to be a giant delta bravo, but he has a ton of receiving talent at his disposal in Tampa. Mariota thrashed everyone last year, including Florida State, before having one off game against Ohio State. Gruden, Jaws, and the other QB talking heads hold him in far higher esteem than you do.

As for Andy, you tossed out one of the most common refrains: Replace him with who? Thus, you insinuate that no one out there is better. In last year's draft, I was a fan of Bridgewater. He seems to be progressing well, especially in the disaster that was Minnesota's offense last year. As for guys on the street right now, obviously there aren't any. Next year's draft has some talents, including Connor Cook and several others. Someone would have to be a bridge to a draft pick, or push from within to take over. McCarron may well be that guy, but we don't know.

The thing you don't seem to understand is that moving on from Dalton likely won't be as painful as you believe. We're talking about a mid 20's ranked QB in the NFL who has never shown he could be relied on in the biggest moments. He has played better under Gruden, but the common theme is always turnover prone, late season decline, dumpster fire at the end. Say Andy moves on from here after 2016. Where will he reasonably have a chance to start outside of Houston, NYJ, Cleveland, Buffalo, and possibly Chicago if they can Cutler? Everyone else either has an established starter or a young guy they've invested in with far more upside. Philly maybe, but Andy doesn't fit the Kelly mold, and Bradford has superior tools, albeit with an injury risk. All of this smacks of a QB who is eminently replaceable by NFL standards. Ryan FitzPatrick and Dalton are basically the same guy. We've seen how teams have valued Fitzmagic.

[WhoDeyWho]

(05-26-2015, 12:44 PM)djs7685 Wrote: You should probably know what that word means before using it.

How is that hypocritical, even in the slightest?

I think you wanted to be an asshole so bad that you intentionally missed the entire point of me bringing up the defense being top 10 in the regular season for 3 of Andy's 4 years.

I was trying to say that Andy would be cut slack by both the media and the fanbase if he were a consensus top 10 QB in the regular season but then played poorly in the playoffs. Do you honestly disagree with that??? I'm not saying that he would have zero critics, but I guarantee that there would be less criticism thrown his direction. I don't know how anybody could believe otherwise. I thought I made my points clearly and objectively, I don't need some Andy nuthugger laughing at something taken out of context.

He led a top 10 offense just 2 seasons ago in his third year in the league. He had 33 TDs to boot. And yet, there were people wanting to see what AJ McCarron could do for us.

Honestly, until this team wins in the playoffs, he isn't getting any respect.

[t3r3e3]

(05-26-2015, 12:05 PM)djs7685 Wrote: Which is exactly why I've always said that I think it's insane that some people want to just up and cut Andy yesterday. I'm not a supporter of booting Andy right now, but that doesn't mean I have to believe he's a good QB.

I would like to see the team go into a different direction at QB if Andy doesn't step it up next year. Just because I can't name a specific player that you deem as an upgrade doesn't mean that I'm not allowed to want Andy potentially replaced in the future. If there are no better options available next year, and if I don't think the risk would be worth taking with a guy that isn't a "sure thing", then maybe I'll be okay with Andy again in 2016. I just don't think I will be if he is still the same mediocre QB after 2015. We were doomed to hell and a 0-16 season and we drafted this guy in the second round that hasn't been terrible so far in his career. Why can't we try to do that again if he doesn't work out? If he can't get above mediocre in 5 years, I'd be okay with taking a slight risk in the draft.

People act like it's ridiculous to want to take risks unless you're guaranteed to get Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers on your team. I just want out of the first round of the playoffs, QB is a very important position, and Andy may not be the guy to take us there. For me and my opinion, 2015 is a big make or break year for Andy. I don't want him booted onto the streets as of right now, but the risk may be worth it after this season depending on how things go down. Hopefully Andy lights it up with a 100+ passer rating and we win the Super Bowl so that all of these conversations won't even matter.

People who want to cut him are foolish. No one else has any starter experience, save Pryor. However, people who don't see the need to upgrade him or look for a contingency plan are equally foolish. Andy's play has shown he's a replaceable talent at the NFL level. Teams don't win multiple Playoff games and Super Bowls with Dalton-esque talents unless they field dominant defenses or that QB goes on a major hot streak. The Bengals don't have a dominant defense, and outside of October, Andy hasn't went on a hot streak like that. QB is the most important position on the football team, and it's the most crucial to get right. The Bengals have to get it right over the next couple years while this team is still young. Now Andy can improve, limit his turnovers, and finally get over the hump that has plagued him. I would welcome that, because it would mean the team doesn't have to invest resources in another QB, and could strengthen other areas while keeping Green. However, Andy's play over the last four years makes that hope a bit far fetched.

[t3r3e3]

(05-26-2015, 12:40 PM)PhilHos Wrote: And this is the reason for this thread. I'm at the stage that, while I think Andy CAN get the job done, I'm beginning to tire of waiting for him to do it. If Andy continues his average level of play (or worse), then I'll be ready to move on regardless of if it's with a known, better quantity or not.

It's just that deep down, I'm wishing that Pryor gets a chance and ends up being that guy. Please note: that is a singular wish. It's not that I first wish that Pryor gets a chance. No, I only want him to get a chance IF he ends up being a great QB. And I find myself wishing this because of Dalton's inconsistent play.

Problem is you'll never know how Pryor will turn out until he gets that chance. Playing in Oakland for a pathetic team made Pryor look worse than he actually is, but in reality, he's still a project with upside. His ceiling is far higher than Andy's, but his floor is also lower.

[t3r3e3]

(05-26-2015, 02:02 PM)WhoDeyWho Wrote: He led a top 10 offense just 2 seasons ago in his third year in the league.  He had 33 TDs to boot.  And yet, there were people wanting to see what AJ McCarron could do for us.  

Honestly, until this team wins in the playoffs, he isn't getting any respect.

He did, and no one denies it. Gruden was a pass happy OC, and Andy's statistical numbers benefitted immensely. It was easily Andy's best year, and also quite possibly the best he will ever have. However, Andy still exhibited the same alarming tendencies that year as he has the other three. Too many turnovers, a decline in play late in the year, and a dumpster fire to finish it off.

[WhoDeyWho]

(05-26-2015, 02:02 PM)t3r3e3 Wrote: People who want to cut him are foolish.  No one else has any starter experience, save Pryor.  However, people who don't see the need to upgrade him or look for a contingency plan are equally foolish.  Andy's play has shown he's a replaceable  talent at the NFL level.  Teams don't win multiple Playoff games and Super Bowls with Dalton-esque talents unless they field dominant defenses or that QB goes on a major hot streak.  The Bengals don't have a dominant defense, and outside of October, Andy hasn't went on a hot streak like that.  QB is the most important position on the football team, and it's the most crucial to get right.  The Bengals have to get it right over the next couple years while this team is still young.  Now Andy can improve, limit his turnovers, and finally get over the hump that has plagued him.  I would welcome that, because it would mean the team doesn't have to invest resources in another QB, and could strengthen other areas while keeping Green.  However, Andy's play over the last four years makes that hope a bit far fetched.

Really? He's been so bad his first four seasons in the league it's "far fetched" to hope he can improve?

[CKwi88]

Fellow Dalton defender. Here is my confession:

I wish that we didn't have so many injuries when Dalton stunk to high heaven. I wish that he had all his weapons healthy, and when he stunk we would be able to be 100% certain that he will never be more than he has been these past four years. This isn't to say I wish he stunk. I'd prefer that he had all his weapons healthy and lit up the place. I'll never root against the Bengals. I'll never wish for them to tank a season.

But having Dalton stink it up with absolutely zero weapons (face it, it's the damn truth) just keeps us in purgatory for another year. If everyone is healthy, and Dalton stinks, it's irrefutable that Dalton needs to go. If Dalton has all his weapons, and plays well (heck, even in a loss) we know we're on the right track. I'll go on the record saying that no quarterback in the league would have won us the game against the Colts (save perhaps Aaron Rodgers.)

So in short here's my confession. I hope Dalton does one of two things this year. Either plays very well (I'm talking at least Joe Flacco-esque) or absolutely crashes and burns. Crashes and burns and someone throws jet fuel on the fire. No more of this middle of the road crap we get. We need to know, 100%, after this season. Because no matter which way you want to spin it, we really don't know 100%. That needs to change.

Oh, 2nd confession: I wish Dalton had a different head coach.

[djs7685]

(05-26-2015, 02:02 PM)WhoDeyWho Wrote: Honestly, until this team wins in the playoffs, he isn't getting any respect.

That could be true, but fans and the media alike would be singing a different tune if he were a 90+ passer rating QB in the regular season every year. If he threw a few less INTs each year, had his bad games be not quite so bad, and kept everything else around the same, the overall perception of Andy Dalton would be so much different just about everywhere. That's all I was really trying to say earlier.

(05-26-2015, 02:49 PM)CKwi88 Wrote: Oh, 2nd confession: I wish Dalton had a different head coach.

You won't find many people disagreeing with that nowadays. Years ago it was rare to find anyone that wanted Marvin gone. Then there were the days where Marvin was almost as polarizing as Andy has been. Then came the shift where the majority wanted a new coach. Now, there are a few stubborn folks left that refuse to admit Marvin's faults and everybody else pretty much wants to see a change at HC.

[WhoDeyWho]

(05-26-2015, 02:55 PM)djs7685 Wrote: That could be true, but fans and the media alike would be singing a different tune if he were a 90+ passer rating QB in the regular season every year. If he threw a few less INTs each year, had his bad games be not quite so bad, and kept everything else around the same, the overall perception of Andy Dalton would be so much different just about everywhere. That's all I was really trying to say earlier.

What QB was 90+ in passer rating every year to start their careers? And why would that even matter when a top 10 offense and franchise records for yards and TDs don't?

[djs7685]

(05-26-2015, 03:00 PM)WhoDeyWho Wrote: What QB was 90+ in passer rating every year to start their careers?  And why would that even matter when a top 10 offense and franchise records for yards and TDs don't?

He threw for a bunch of yards a time or two, great. He threw for a lot of TDs once, that is impressive for sure. It will become a bit less impressive if the years go on without replicating it though. When is the last time a one hit wonder was remembered unless the run came in the playoffs? I don't know how 1 year of a couple of decent stats outweighs all of the negatives. It's not like he's been lighting the league on fire and no one has noticed. He had a couple of impressive stats one year but he had other stats that were so bad that they brought his ratings down even with 33 TD passes and over 4k yards.

I'm not sure if there even were any QBs to start their career that way, but forget my exact numbers that I've been using as random examples. People have been sooo focused on my numbers and irrelevant parts of my posts and completely missing my points.

If Andy played just a bit better in the regular season, IMO his perception around the league would be different. If he were a consensus top 10 QB yet struggled to win a playoff game, people would look at him differently. He'd still have his critics, but it wouldn't be nearly as bad as it is right now. I did mention earlier that a one hit wonder in the regular season isn't remembered, but I'm talking as if he played well for a few straight years but struggled in the playoffs. Not many people thought Ryan, Romo, or Rivers were crappy QBs for the sole reason that they were impressive for a handful of years in the regular season. Some of these guys got labeled as not being able to win in the playoffs, but they absolutely got/get more respect than Andy. That's my point. Andy would definitely get more respect if he performed better in the regular season, and I think you'd see a LOT more people that believe in him to get over the playoff hump as well.

Mediocre regular seasons + crap playoffs = little hope
Good regular seasons + crap playoffs = more hope than just a little

That's my point.

[WhoDeyWho]

(05-26-2015, 03:24 PM)djs7685 Wrote: He threw for a bunch of yards a time or two, great. He threw for a lot of TDs once, that is impressive for sure. It will become a bit less impressive if the years go on without replicating it though. When is the last time a one hit wonder was remembered unless the run came in the playoffs? I don't know how 1 year of a couple of decent stats outweighs all of the negatives. It's not like he's been lighting the league on fire and no one has noticed. He had a couple of impressive stats one year but he had other stats that were so bad that they brought his ratings down even with 33 TD passes and over 4k yards.

I'm not sure if there even were any QBs to start their career that way, but forget my exact numbers that I've been using as random examples. People have been sooo focused on my numbers and irrelevant parts of my posts and completely missing my points.

If Andy played just a bit better in the regular season, IMO his perception around the league would be different. If he were a consensus top 10 QB yet struggled to win a playoff game, people would look at him differently. He'd still have his critics, but it wouldn't be nearly as bad as it is right now. I did mention earlier that a one hit wonder in the regular season isn't remembered, but I'm talking as if he played well for a few straight years but struggled in the playoffs. Not many people thought Ryan, Romo, or Rivers were crappy QBs for the sole reason that they were impressive for a handful of years in the regular season. Some of these guys got labeled as not being able to win in the playoffs, but they absolutely got/get more respect than Andy. That's my point. Andy would definitely get more respect if he performed better in the regular season, and I think you'd see a LOT more people that believe in him to get over the playoff hump as well.

Mediocre regular seasons + crap playoffs = little hope
Good regular seasons + crap playoffs = more hope than just a little

That's my point.

They weren't labeled after their first 4 seasons. And Dalton trended upwards in almost every relevant passing metric until last season.

[t3r3e3]

(05-26-2015, 02:36 PM)WhoDeyWho Wrote: Really?  He's been so bad his first four seasons in the league it's "far fetched" to hope he can improve?

It's not that he can't, and I hope that he can. However, 68 starts into an NFL career, the portrait of who a player is fairly clear. It might not be finished, but it's closer to finished than blank. While exceptions to the rule can be found, most guys are who they are after almost 70 starts. Obviously system changes can benefit players, and sometimes QB's take longer than other players to develop. The average player doesn't last that long, and many QB's (including backups) don't make that many starts. While Andy could improve, cut down on turnovers, play better late in the year, and not dumpster fire the Playoffs, how long until enough is enough? This year? Three years from now? The end of his contract?

The reason there is criticism on Dalton is he's highly erratic, and has never shown the ability to come up big in the biggest moments. Combine that with his turnover propensity, less than ideal measurables, average accuracy, and you get the criticism from many sides. It's not that Andy is terrible, he's just not a quality, upper tier NFL starter either. He's a journeyman type guy thrust into a long term starting role. We've had that guy play here before. Their names were Fitzpatrick and Kitna. Those types of QB's can win you games, but their obvious flaws have to be protected.

[WhoDeyWho]

(05-26-2015, 04:58 PM)t3r3e3 Wrote: It's not that he can't, and I hope that he can.  However, 68 starts into an NFL career, the portrait of who a player is fairly clear.  It might not be finished, but it's closer to finished than blank.  While exceptions to the rule can be found, most guys are who they are after almost 70 starts.  Obviously system changes can benefit players, and sometimes QB's take longer than other players to develop.   The average player doesn't last that long, and many QB's (including backups) don't make that many starts.  While Andy could improve, cut down on turnovers, play better late in the year, and not dumpster fire the Playoffs, how long until enough is enough?  This year?  Three years from now?  The end of his contract?  

The reason there is criticism on Dalton is he's highly erratic, and has never shown the ability to come up big in the biggest moments.  Combine that with his turnover propensity, less than ideal measurables, average accuracy, and you get the criticism from many sides.  It's not that Andy is terrible, he's just not a quality, upper tier NFL starter either.  He's a journeyman type guy thrust into a long term starting role.  We've had that guy play here before.  Their names were Fitzpatrick and Kitna.  Those types of QB's can win you games, but their obvious flaws have to be protected.

He's a "journeyman" entering his 5th season.

Seems fair to compare him to a guy who was in his 7th season by the time he QB this franchise (Kitna) and a guy who in his only season as a starter, put up a 70 rating.

[Hoofhearted]

(05-26-2015, 02:02 PM)WhoDeyWho Wrote: He led a top 10 offense just 2 seasons ago in his third year in the league.  He had 33 TDs to boot.  And yet, there were people wanting to see what AJ McCarron could do for us.  

Honestly, until this team wins in the playoffs, he isn't getting any respect.

I wonder has he missed PO a year, would he get same bashing he does?

[RoyleRedlegs]

(05-26-2015, 05:19 PM)Hoofhearted Wrote: I wonder has he missed PO a year, would he get same bashing he does?

If he didn't make it his first 2 years but still had winning records and then made it the last 2 years with the same results, the narrative would be wholly different on Dalton.

[fredtoast]

(05-25-2015, 11:45 PM)bfine32 Wrote: 25th rated would be "average" if there were around 48-52 starting NFL QBs.

Brady was ranked 17th in 2013.

[fredtoast]

(05-26-2015, 04:58 PM)t3r3e3 Wrote:  He's a journeyman type guy thrust into a long term starting role.

He is not a "journeyman". He is a solid NFL starter that belongs in a group that can pretty much be shuffled around in any order between 10 and 18. These type of QBs are so hard to find that teams pay them over $15 million per year.