Confession of a Dalton Defender

[fredtoast]

(05-26-2015, 02:14 PM)t3r3e3 Wrote: He did, and no one denies it.  Gruden was a pass happy OC, and Andy's statistical numbers benefitted immensely.  It was easily Andy's best year, and also quite possibly the best he will ever have.

That season he had a terrible run game (18th in yards and 28th in yards per carry) and a very inexperienced receiving corps. Four of his top six receivers (Jones, Sanu, Eifert, Bernard) started that season with a combined 2 years of NFL experience and 34 receptions.

Dalton improved every single year until last season when his receiving corps was crippled by injuries. There is nothing to suggest that 21013 was a "one hit wonder".

[BonnieBengal]

I think Andy can do this, but I also think it's his last year to try. The Brown family can walk away from his contract after this year. They are not going to continue to pay him the type of money he's making without at least a playoff win, IMO. I really hope he does well this year, and some of the reasons have nothing to do with football. He's a fabulous human being who is a great face for the Bengals. I'm basing that on his charity work and the money he's given to Children's hospital. I don't think we'll ever see Andy negatively in the news. Sure, it's got nothing to do with how he plays the game but it makes me hope for his success. That being said, I'm curious to see what Pryor and McCarron can do. We haven't seen McCarron play in the NFL at all and I really want to see if Pryor is living up to the praise the coaches are giving him.

[Big Hammer]

(05-26-2015, 03:24 PM)djs7685 Wrote: He threw for a bunch of yards a time or two, great. He threw for a lot of TDs once, that is impressive for sure. It will become a bit less impressive if the years go on without replicating it though. When is the last time a one hit wonder was remembered unless the run came in the playoffs? I don't know how 1 year of a couple of decent stats outweighs all of the negatives. It's not like he's been lighting the league on fire and no one has noticed. He had a couple of impressive stats one year but he had other stats that were so bad that they brought his ratings down even with 33 TD passes and over 4k yards.

I'm not sure if there even were any QBs to start their career that way, but forget my exact numbers that I've been using as random examples. People have been sooo focused on my numbers and irrelevant parts of my posts and completely missing my points.

If Andy played just a bit better in the regular season, IMO his perception around the league would be different. If he were a consensus top 10 QB yet struggled to win a playoff game, people would look at him differently. He'd still have his critics, but it wouldn't be nearly as bad as it is right now. I did mention earlier that a one hit wonder in the regular season isn't remembered, but I'm talking as if he played well for a few straight years but struggled in the playoffs. Not many people thought Ryan, Romo, or Rivers were crappy QBs for the sole reason that they were impressive for a handful of years in the regular season. Some of these guys got labeled as not being able to win in the playoffs, but they absolutely got/get more respect than Andy. That's my point. Andy would definitely get more respect if he performed better in the regular season, and I think you'd see a LOT more people that believe in him to get over the playoff hump as well.

Mediocre regular seasons + crap playoffs = little hope
Good regular seasons + crap playoffs = more hope than just a little

That's my point.

Dalton in 2014 led the Bengals to the playoffs for the fourth time in his four years as a pro, joining Baltimore’s Joe Flacco as only the second starting QB in the Super Bowl era to lead a team to postseason in each of his first four campaigns ... Selected as an alternate for 2015 Pro Bowl ... Could tie Flacco’s record of five straight years in playoffs in ’15, and could surpass it in ’16 ... Has not missed a start in his career, and with 40-23-1 record, has best regular-season winning percentage (.633) of any Bengals QB with 10 or more starts ... Led a two-game sweep of division rival Baltimore in ’14, with fourth-quarter comebacks in both games ... Had career-best completion percentage (64.1) in ’14, and scored five TDs himself, tying Jack Thompson’s 1979 record for Bengals QBs ... Set franchise records in 2013 for single season passing yards (4293) and passing TDs (33) ... Signed six-year contract extension (through 2020) on 8-4-14. Surely He has a few things going for him. He is not an elite quarterback, but not the worst either. If he doesn't show marked improvement this year with all his weapons available, then we definitely have a problem.

[Shake n Blake]

(05-26-2015, 06:52 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Brady was ranked 17th in 2013.

Flacco was 32nd and Eli Manning was 35th that year as well. All had problems at receiver that year.

Just like Dalton had problems at receiver last year.

[*PhilHos*]

(05-26-2015, 07:20 PM)BonnieBengal Wrote:  The Brown family can walk away from his contract after this year.  They are not going to continue to pay him the type of money he's making without at least a playoff win, IMO.  

Why not? They gave Lewis an extension this past offseason and he's had more chances for a playoff win and came up just as empty as Dalton has.

[*bfine32*]

This is the projected list of starting AFC QBs in the NFL for 2015:

Phillip Rivers
Ryan Tannehill
Andrew Luck
Tom Brady
Matt Cassel
Marcus Mariota
Geno Smith
Peyton Manning
Derik Carr
Alex Smith
Ben Rothlisberger
Joe Flacco
Josh McCown
Blake Bortles
Bobby Hoyer
Andy Dalton

This is the list of those with at least 4 years as a starter (min 10 games) that did not achieve a passer rating of 90 or higher in at least 1 of those 1st 4 years:

Andy Dalton

[*rfaulk34*]

(05-27-2015, 01:39 PM)bfine32 Wrote: This is the projected list of starting AFC QBs in the NFL for 2015:

Phillip Rivers
Ryan Tannehill
Andrew Luck
Tom Brady
Matt Cassel
Tom Brady
Carson Palmer
Peyton Manning
Derik Carr
Alex Smith
Ben Rothlisberger
Joe Flacco
Josh McCown
Blake Bortles
Bobby Hoyer
Andy Dalton

This is the list of those with at least 4 years as a starter (min 10 games) that did not achieve a passer rating of 90 or higher in at least 1 of those 1st 4 years:

Andy Dalton

So much ouch.

[Brownshoe]

(05-27-2015, 01:39 PM)bfine32 Wrote: This is the projected list of starting AFC QBs in the NFL for 2015:

Phillip Rivers
Ryan Tannehill
Andrew Luck
Tom Brady
Matt Cassel
Tom Brady
Carson Palmer
Peyton Manning
Derik Carr
Alex Smith
Ben Rothlisberger
Joe Flacco
Josh McCown
Blake Bortles
Bobby Hoyer
Andy Dalton

This is the list of those with at least 4 years as a starter (min 10 games) that did not achieve a passer rating of 90 or higher in at least 1 of those 1st 4 years:

Andy Dalton

Tom Brady didn't have a 90+ rating until his 5th year in the league
Matt Cassel didn't have a 90+ rating until his 6th year in the league
Derek Carr hasn't had a 90+ rating season yet
Alex Smith didn't have a 90+ rating season until his 6th year in the league
Josh McCown hasn't had a 90+ rating with your min 10 game start
Blake Bortles hasn't had a 90+ rating season yet
Brian Hoyer hasn't had a 90+ rating season yet
Carson Palmer is in the NFC, but the person you didn't name was E.J. Manuel, and he didn't have a 90+ rating season yet
You listed Tom Brady twice, and you didn't name Geno Smith who didn't have a 90+ rating season yet

[*bfine32*]

(05-27-2015, 03:55 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: Tom Brady didn't have a 90+ rating until his 5th year in the league
Matt Cassel didn't have a 90+ rating until his 6th year in the league
Derek Carr hasn't had a 90+ rating season yet
Alex Smith didn't have a 90+ rating season until his 6th year in the league
Josh McCown hasn't had a 90+ rating with your min 10 game start
Blake Bortles hasn't had a 90+ rating season yet
Brian Hoyer hasn't had a 90+ rating season yet
Carson Palmer is in the NFC, but the person you didn't name was E.J. Manuel, and he didn't have a 90+ rating season yet
You listed Tom Brady twice, and you didn't name Geno Smith who didn't have a 90+ rating season yet

I suppose reading is difficult. Go back and read what I wrote. My bad on EJ and Geno, I corrected the first list and amazingly, it didn't change the 2nd

[WhoDeyWho]

(05-26-2015, 05:23 PM)RoyleRedlegs Wrote: If he didn't make it his first 2 years but still had winning records and then made it the last 2 years with the same results, the narrative would be wholly different on Dalton.

He is basically a victim of overachieving his first couple of years. Had the Bengals not made the playoffs in 2011 or 2012, I don't think anyone would have been all that surprised by it coming off a 4-12 season and all and essentially starting over on offense with a new QB, OC, and #1 WR.

[*bfine32*]

(05-27-2015, 04:17 PM)WhoDeyWho Wrote: He is basically a victim of overachieving his first couple of years.  Had the Bengals not made the playoffs in 2011 or 2012, I don't think anyone would have been all that surprised by it coming off a 4-12 season and all and essentially starting over on offense with a new QB, OC, and #1 WR.

I have always (well for the last couple years) said this about Andy.Andy has fallen further and further behind his peers ever since his 2nd year:
2012 he was the 13th rated passer in the NFL
2013 he was the 15th rated passer in the NFL
2014 he was the 25th rated passer in the NFL

[fredtoast]

(05-27-2015, 04:06 PM)bfine32 Wrote: I suppose reading is difficult. Go back and read what I wrote.

I suppose having your argument shredded is difficult.

We all read what you wrote. But adding context just shows how silly it was.

[Brownshoe]

(05-27-2015, 04:06 PM)bfine32 Wrote: I suppose reading is difficult. Go back and read what I wrote. My bad on EJ and Geno, I corrected the first list and amazingly, it didn't change the 2nd

Let's make another list of starting AFC QBs

Phillip Rivers
Ryan Tannehill
Andrew Luck
Tom Brady
Matt Cassel
Marcus Mariota
Geno Smith
Peyton Manning
Derek Carr
Alex Smith
Ben Rothlisberger
Joe Flacco
Josh McCown
Blake Bortles
Brian Hoyer
Andy Dalton

List of starting AFC QBs who threw 99+ TDs in their first 4 years

Peyton Manning
Andy Dalton

Shoot let's just do everyone who's a NFL starting QB who threw 99+ TDs in their first 4 years

Peyton Manning
Andy Dalton

[*bfine32*]

(05-27-2015, 06:58 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: Let's make another list of starting AFC QBs

Phillip Rivers
Ryan Tannehill
Andrew Luck
Tom Brady
Matt Cassel
Marcus Mariota
Geno Smith
Peyton Manning
Derek Carr
Alex Smith
Ben Rothlisberger
Joe Flacco
Josh McCown
Blake Bortles
Brian Hoyer
Andy Dalton

List of starting AFC QBs who threw 99+ TDs in their first 4 years

Peyton Manning
Andy Dalton

Shoot let's just do everyone who's a NFL starting QB who threw 99+ TDs in their first 4 years

Peyton Manning
Andy Dalton

Can we do INTs next?

[Brownshoe]

(05-27-2015, 08:04 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Can we do INTs next?

We can do yards after that too

[*bfine32*]

(05-27-2015, 08:15 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: We can do yards after that too

..or we could just do passer rating and list all that didn't break 90 in their first 4 years as a starter and not cherry pick different stats. It pretty much includes all that stuff

[Brownshoe]

(05-27-2015, 08:49 PM)bfine32 Wrote: ..or we could just do passer rating and list all that didn't break 90 in their first 4 years as a starter and not cherry pick different stats. It pretty much includes all that stuff

So you get to cherry pick a made up stat, and tell me not to cherry pick legit stats... Seems fair

[*bfine32*]

(05-27-2015, 08:54 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: So you get to cherry pick a made up stat, and tell me not to cherry pick legit stats... Seems fair

What "made up" stat did I cherry pick?

[Brownshoe]

(05-27-2015, 09:01 PM)bfine32 Wrote: What "made up" stat did I cherry pick?

QBR is a made up stat. You can't show me QBR on the field, but I can show you TDs, INTs, competions, and incompletions. You only picking QBR with very specific variables is cherry picking even more so than most people do.

[*bfine32*]

(05-27-2015, 09:16 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: QBR is a made up stat. You can't show me QBR on the field, but I can show you TDs, INTs, competions, and incompletions. You only picking QBR with very specific variables is cherry picking even more so than most people do.

All that stuff you listed is combined to make up the passer rating. Not sure how in anybody's head using it would be considered "cherry picking". But it takes all types.