Reds September Game Thread

[guyofthetiger]

Reds lost today and are heading towards 100 loses. I don't think I ever saw a Reds season with 100 loses in my lifetime.

[cinci4life]

(10-02-2022, 01:51 AM)guyofthetiger Wrote: Reds lost today and are heading towards 100 loses. I don't think I ever saw a Reds season with 100 loses in my lifetime.

Did a little research and found they had only 1 season with 100+ losses and that was 101 in 1982.

[SladeX]

(10-02-2022, 02:34 AM)cinci4life Wrote: Did a little research and found they had only 1 season with 100+ losses and that was 101 in 1982.

Gary Redus and Mario Soto were the best players on that team.

[*bengalfan74*]

(10-02-2022, 01:51 AM)guyofthetiger Wrote: Reds lost today and are heading towards 100 loses. I don't think I ever saw a Reds season with 100 loses in my lifetime.

Sitting at 99 loses with 3 games left I'd say that's about to change. Sadly 

[cinci4life]

(10-01-2022, 11:04 AM)Goalpost Wrote: https://www.tankathon.com/mlb/pick_odds

Reds are a game behind Pittsburgh to end up with the top three worst record.  The top three receive the same odds for the number 1 pick next year.  I'm not sure how the tie breakers work, but Pittsburgh took the season series from us 12-7.

Pirates won today bringing us tied with them but putting us last in the division meaning we have the 3rd worst record in MLB. We have 3 more with the Cubs while they have 3 more with the Cards. Could go any which way.

[CJD]

This is our 5th 90+ loss season in the last 8 seasons.

I really hope next season sees a lot of stars graduating to the majors and making an immediate impact (hopefully, a Julio Rodriguez level impact).

Because if not, I feel like we're going to be facing another 80 to 90 loss season, even if Lodolo, Greene and Ashcraft making strides.

This offense is just...bereft of talent right now.

Barrero is playing incredibly poorly, as is Aquino (although he's playing better recently, so maybe there's hope that he can develop into a 4th fielder?).

Lopez is decent at getting on base but has very little pop in his bat.

Fraley had a hot streak coming off of the IL and he is having a career year, but I'm skeptical as to whether this is real or just a stat line propped up by a really good 2 month stretch.

Solano is not a long term piece of this team, Farmer likely isn't either.

We have a few young guys like Friedl, Fairchild and Steer who showed potential in some games, but they will need to continue to develop to be full time starters when this team competes again. And, not to be a pessimist, but I feel like Fridl and Fairchild's ceiling is an average starter for a few seasons, whereas their most likely result is a reliable 4th outfielder or a player that bounces between AAA and MLB based on injuries. I don't see either of them as viable every day above average starters (although I'm happy to be proven wrong). At least not on a good team.

Then I don't know what to make of Senzel. Is he a bust? Because he sure seems like he is at this point.

And then India is having a down year dealing with some injuries. Hopefully, he, Votto and Stephenson come back healthy and ready to improve this offense. Because it can be painful to watch.

Without Stephenson, we have a cavernous hole at catcher. I had no idea it was so difficult to find a catcher that could hit above the Mendoza line. I wish we had a gold glove level backup catcher who could hit in the mid .230s to .240s right about now. It's a shame, those players don't come around often...

Basically, if we get down more than 2 runs, I'm essentially considering that game over, because we just don't have the horses to score more than a few runs per game (we haven't scored more than 3 runs in a game since September 21st, and are averaging 3.07 runs per game since the beginning of September).

I'm trying to stay optimistic about this team's future, because we do have a lot of really exciting prospects, but it's hard. Prospects are just prospects until they actually prove something in the majors and we're going to have to basically rebuild this team from the ground up relying on the majority of these prospects to hit (and hit big).

Here's hoping for a more promising 2023.

[Goalpost]

(10-02-2022, 10:22 PM)cinci4life Wrote: Pirates won today bringing us tied with them but putting us last in the division meaning we have the 3rd worst record in MLB. We have 3 more with the Cubs while they have 3 more with the Cards. Could go any which way.

..https://www.tankathon.com/mlb

Well, I see a rule now that probably applies.  Scroll down to the very bottom and read item number 10.  Looks like last years record is the tie breaker and the Pirates were worse in this regard LY.  We are assured now of no worse than 4th odds, and need to lose one more game in the standings to the Pirates still.  

[TecmoBengals]

(10-03-2022, 03:18 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Then I don't know what to make of Senzel. Is he a bust? Because he sure seems like he is at this point.

I'd offer he is absolutely a bust. Senzel is already 27 years old. He might have a couple decent years in him yet; he's already injury prone so I speculate it gets worse as he gets older. I'd cut ties with him if I were the Reds after his cheap contract years are up. Do not give him a long term deal and do not pay him a large one-year contract during the arbitration process.

[CJD]

(10-03-2022, 11:10 AM)TecmoBengals Wrote: I'd offer he is absolutely a bust. Senzel is already 27 years old. He might have a couple decent years in him yet; he's already injury prone so I speculate it gets worse as he gets older. I'd cut ties with him if I were the Reds after his cheap contract years are up. Do not give him a long term deal and do not pay him a large one-year contract during the arbitration process.

Yea, that's how I feel about him too. It's just a shame because he was so highly regarded as a college player and then as a minor league player. He felt like a "sure thing" as far as prospects go.

His failures make me nervous about our other high end prospects. If Senzel could bust so spectacularly, then any of them can. Makes rebuilding around prospects feel much more risky.

[TecmoBengals]

(10-03-2022, 11:32 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Yea, that's how I feel about him too. It's just a shame because he was so highly regarded as a college player and then as a minor league player. He felt like a "sure thing" as far as prospects go.

His failures make me nervous about our other high end prospects. If Senzel could bust so spectacularly, then any of them can. Makes rebuilding around prospects feel much more risky.

Yes, he did have the scouting report approval of being a sure-thing for hitting in the big leagues but his success is limited. Mostly, he can't stay healthy. If he could play a 150 game season, we'd probably see some productivity out of him but he has less years ahead of him than behind because of his age and injury history.

The franchise needs India and Stephenson to hit, hit, hit and be healthy to get the offense on track along with adding more talented position players in the OF.

[Goalpost]

I would say it is generally regarded that your best athletes on defense play CF and SS. Both Senzel and Farmer really don't fit that narrative.

[TecmoBengals]

(10-03-2022, 11:52 AM)Goalpost Wrote: I would say it is generally regarded that your best athletes on defense play CF and SS.  Both Senzel and Farmer really don't fit that narrative.

I feel like Senzel only ended up in CF because they didn't have a spot in the IF and didn't even have a CF on the roster. 

[cinci4life]

Reds and Pirates both win tonight leaving the door slightly open to avoid 100 losses.

[CJD]

Hunter Greene in his last 6 starts:
35.1 IP, 22 hits, 5 R, 4 ER, 1 HR, 8 BB, 51 K, 1.02 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 5 QS

Nick Lodolo in his last 6 starts:
36.1 IP, 22 hits, 10 R, 10 ER, 5 HR, 10 BB, 49 K, 2.48 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 4 QS

Not bad haha.

[leonardfan40]

Does Pitt win the tie breaker with us for worst record and better lottery odds?

[Goalpost]

(10-04-2022, 04:44 PM)leonardfan40 Wrote: Does Pitt win the tie breaker with us for worst record and better lottery odds?

Yes.  

https://www.tankathon.com/mlb

You'll see they list us 4th even though our record with Pittsburgh is the same at the moment. Scroll down to the very bottom and line 10 gives the tiebreaker.

Pittsburgh's record last year was worse than ours.

[cinci4life]

Reds with a walk off win tonight to once again avoid loss 100. Last game tomorrow at 4pm. Pirates tied with Cards in the 8th currently.

[CJD]

In Luis Cessa's final 8 starts of the season (He only had 10 total), his stat line is:

41 IP, 33 Hits, 17 R, 16 ER, 6 HR, 12 BB, 28 K, 3.51 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 1 QS

He only pitched 6 innings a single time, which was his lone QS. He had 3 5 IP starts that would have been QSs by ERA standards (6IP and 3 ER = 4.5 ERA) and 1 5.2 IP game that would have qualified as well had he made that final out.

Not as good as Greene or Lodolo, obviously, but I think there's some potential for a #5 starter here. I wonder if the Reds will give him the chance to start full time in 2023.

[guyofthetiger]

Today marks the final game of the season for the Reds. I will miss watching them in the evenings. Now, it is time to focus on the playoffs and World Series. Wish the Reds were there. lol

[TecmoBengals]

(10-05-2022, 01:00 PM)guyofthetiger Wrote: Today marks the final game of the season for the Reds. I will miss watching them in the evenings. Now, it is time to focus on the playoffs and World Series. Wish the Reds were there. lol

Loss 100 incoming?