Why no Dax Hill?

[*ochocincos*]

(09-21-2022, 11:06 PM)BengalsBong Wrote: When Bates is trailing his guy by 5 yards its time. Jessie is not in football shape I guess we just let the O-line and Bates and anyone else playing subpar to just get into game shape as we lose games.

P.S. I should of said Collins as opposed to the offensive line as a whole.

Williams is not out of shape like Bates and Collins are his is more skill and coaching issues.

Could be LT and RB in our next draft 1st 2nd round picks.

There's no way Bates gets $12.9 mill (fully guaranteed) and rides the bench this season as long as he's healthy.
The reality is Hill will have to find another spot to play at this season or wait until a potential Bates injury to see more playing time.

[*PhilHos*]

(09-21-2022, 11:00 PM)Housh Wrote: Lol i know but damn

Housh, use your super powers to your advantage: "Dax Hill will NEVER start for the Bengals!" or "the Bengals defense will NEVER be top 5" or "PhilHos will NEVER have sex with Kat Dennings".

[Whatever]

(09-22-2022, 10:40 AM)ochocincos Wrote: There's no way Bates gets $12.9 mill (fully guaranteed) and rides the bench this season as long as he's healthy.
The reality is Hill will have to find another spot to play at this season or wait until a potential Bates injury to see more playing time.

You're right, and that's why Bates never should have been FT'd in the first place.

Several people said there was no reason to believe we wouldn't be getting '21 regular season Bates, and they're being proven correct over the first couple of games of the season.  

What makes it even worse is even though it was only preseason, Hill looked a helluva lot closer to a true elite S like Fitzpatrick than Bates does.  

As good as Hill looked, we have to find a role for the guy.  I know I suggested during preseason that they should try using Vonn Bell as a nickel LB on 3rd downs/2 minute drill and line up Dax at S opposite Bates.

[*jason*]

(09-22-2022, 10:40 AM)ochocincos Wrote: There's no way Bates gets $12.9 mill (fully guaranteed) and rides the bench this season as long as he's healthy.
The reality is Hill will have to find another spot to play at this season or wait until a potential Bates injury to see more playing time.

After this season, there's no way he gets 12.9 million a year period. His play over the past season and two games isn't helping his cause.

[740Bengal]

Bc Lou is just like Zac, birds of a feather...they both are average at best but think they're Fn Savants.

[fredtoast]

(09-21-2022, 09:26 PM)Housh Wrote: Why TF are you watching Eli Apple get his ass played with every week and Dax doesn’t even sniff snaps at corner?

This is beyond dumb. Bates is gone next year and Bell is a FA. Dax needs to play. I wouldn’t think I’d have to explain this to a NFL coach.

Lou has seen both of these players get hundreds of reps in practice.  He knows much more about their ability than any of us.  And Lou's entire reputation as a coach depends on how his players perform on the field.  So there is no way in hell that he would intentionally keep a guy on the bench who is better than a guy playing. 

(09-21-2022, 09:26 PM)Housh Wrote: For the record I’m not sold on Lou at all yet. Refusing the rotate secondary is likely why were so bad defensively late in games

For the record I'm not sold on Lou at all yet either, but almost all the other teams play their starting CBs pretty close to 100% of the snaps.  D-linemen are the ones who need to rotate to keep fresh, and LBs will rotate in and out based on pass coverage skills, but DBs usually play 100% of the snaps.

[Destro]

(09-22-2022, 10:07 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Hill looked real good in preseason. Don't know what much else he could have done to show he at least could have probably started and done ok.

Yeah. Hoped he could play corner ( yeah, I know ) and get Apple out of the paint.

[J24]

(09-22-2022, 01:54 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Yeah, I think this hurts him as well. There's only 4 guys who were drafted by the Bengals out of the starting 11. Hubbard, Bates, and the 2 LBs. Hubbard and Bates both had success as rookies before he got here. 


Mitchell Trubisky and Cooper Rush

The Cowboys and Steelers have scored a combined 17 points in the games they didn't play against the Bengals.

The Defense held the the Steelers  offense to 13 points in regulation. 

The Cowboys didn't even make it to the Redzone after the first two series. Granted the first two series were disasters but the Defense did its job Afterwards. 

[*ochocincos*]

(09-22-2022, 12:46 PM)jason Wrote: After this season, there's no way he gets 12.9 million a year period. His play over the past season and two games isn't helping his cause.

You'd think that, but we've seen plenty of guys who we'd think would NEVER get big deals and end up getting big deals.
We'll have to see.

[J24]

(09-22-2022, 12:36 PM)Whatever Wrote: You're right, and that's why Bates never should have been FT'd in the first place.

Several people said there was no reason to believe we wouldn't be getting '21 regular season Bates, and they're being proven correct over the first couple of games of the season.  

What makes it even worse is even though it was only preseason, Hill looked a helluva lot closer to a true elite S like Fitzpatrick than Bates does.  

As good as Hill looked, we have to find a role for the guy.  I know I suggested during preseason that they should try using Vonn Bell as a nickel LB on 3rd downs/2 minute drill and line up Dax at S opposite Bates.

This whole post is nonsense. 

 Bates has proven to be an elite safety.  Hell nine months ago he was a key piece on  a superbowl run.
He was considered the best Safety in Football in 2020 by PFF 

Saying that a rookie who only has played against backups in his Career is a better option is ridiculous notion 

Also Bates did have a pass breakup that was taken away due to penalty against the Cowboys. 

 Hill best play came when he was playing the slot and Box position. not from the Deep Safety position( and yes I know he had a pick on an overthrow at deep Safety).  If Hill is going to get snaps it won't be in place of Bates (unless Bates gets Hurt).

[treee]

I know Lou likes to run a lot of zone but I think Hill has the physical ability to take out any WR in 1v1 coverage. I don't think it's unreasonable to ask why we can't find a way to incorporate him more into the gameplan. I guess if he's not ready then he's not ready. Here's to hoping he can prove himself and get on the field ASAP.

[KillerGoose]

(09-22-2022, 03:26 PM)J24 Wrote: The Defense held the the Steelers  offense to 13 points in regulation. 

The Cowboys didn't even make it to the Redzone after the first two series. Granted the first two series were disasters but the Defense did its job Afterwards. 

This doesn't address what he said, though. Those two offenses are led by two very uninspiring QBs, and even then, a guy like Rush played fairly well. The defense did play well, yes, but the point is they played well against non-threatening offenses. We haven't seen them tested quite yet. We don't have enough data to gauge how good they are. 

[Whatever]

(09-22-2022, 04:09 PM)J24 Wrote: This whole post is nonsense. 

 Bates has proven to be an elite safety.  Hell nine months ago he was a key piece on  a superbowl run.
He was considered the best Safety in Football in 2020 by PFF 

Saying that a rookie who only has played against backups in his Career is a better option is ridiculous notion 

Also Bates did have a pass breakup that was taken away due to penalty against the Cowboys. 

 Hill best play came when he was playing the slot and Box position. not from the Deep Safety position( and yes I know he had a pick on an overthrow at deep Safety).  If Hill is going to get snaps it won't be in place of Bates (unless Bates gets Hurt).

Andy Dalton was in the MVP conversation in '15.  That doesn't mean he was a proven elite QB.  You are proven to be elite when you play at an elite level the majority of the time.  That has never been the case with Bates.  He has periods where he plays at an elite level, but also has long stretches where he plays like garbage.  

If you want to talk PFF, he has a 59.1 grade this year after a 56.1 grade last year.  He's currently graded as one of the worst starting S's in the league and there's no reason to believe he will get dramatically better based on last year.  I've already posted the stats for Passer Rating Allowed When Targeted that disprove the "he played better the second half of last year" argument.  Hill can't be much worse than Bates currently is.  If Bates could even manage to play at average starter level, you might have a point, but he isn't, so you really don't.

[J24]

(09-22-2022, 07:01 PM)Whatever Wrote: Andy Dalton was in the MVP conversation in '15.  That doesn't mean he was a proven elite QB.  You are proven to be elite when you play at an elite level the majority of the time.  That has never been the case with Bates.  He has periods where he plays at an elite level, but also has long stretches where he plays like garbage.  

If you want to talk PFF, he has a 59.1 grade this year after a 56.1 grade last year.  He's currently graded as one of the worst starting S's in the league and there's no reason to believe he will get dramatically better based on last year.  I've already posted the stats for Passer Rating Allowed When Targeted that disprove the "he played better the second half of last year" argument.  Hill can't be much worse than Bates currently is.  If Bates could even manage to play at average starter level, you might have a point, but he isn't, so you really don't.

BS 
He made the rookie team in 2018 and had a 79.9 PFF .01 percent from elite, he was one of the top 12 safeties  in the second half of 2019, and he was regarded as the best Saftey in 2020 as mentioned earlier.  To say that his play was sporadic is flat out lie and you bleeping know it. 

Yeah he had a bad year in the regular season but he bounced back in the playoffs during the most important stretch his career.  

Also judging him off two games where he has only been targeted three times. That is clearly not enough evidence to make a judgment on a player.

[BengalsBong]

(09-22-2022, 10:40 AM)ochocincos Wrote: There's no way Bates gets $12.9 mill (fully guaranteed) and rides the bench this season as long as he's healthy.
The reality is Hill will have to find another spot to play at this season or wait until a potential Bates injury to see more playing time.

I do not think we should make Bates a bench warmer with his contract. But I do not think someone should get their job back until they get their wind back and reaction time.

[J24]

(09-22-2022, 05:40 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: This doesn't address what he said, though. Those two offenses are led by two very uninspiring QBs, and even then, a guy like Rush played fairly well. The defense did play well, yes, but the point is they played well against non-threatening offenses. We haven't seen them tested quite yet. We don't have enough data to gauge how good they are. 

The defense played well last season outside of 4(Browns, Chargers, Jets, chiefs games) , played well in the playoffs, and they're playing well now. What evidence is there to suggest that they're not a good defense?

[KillerGoose]

(09-22-2022, 08:27 PM)J24 Wrote: The defense played well last season outside of 4(Browns, Chargers, Jets, chiefs games) , played well in the playoffs, and they're playing well now. What evidence is there to suggest that they're not a good defense?

Well, to begin, I never said they weren't a good defense. I said we don't have enough data to really judge them yet, but saying that they are good because they played well against Mitch and Cooper Rush isn't a convincing argument.

The defense was a mediocre defense last season, and you don't get to throw ~25% of the season away because it doesn't fit the point your trying to make. Here is where the Bengals defense ranked in several key metrics...

16th in PPG
15th in passer rating
13th in yards per carry
13th in yards per play
11th in sacks 
18th in turnovers.

At this point, the conversation usually turns to "Yeah, but they had a TOP FIVE RUSH DEFENSE". No, they didn't. They gave up the fifth least yards because.....they faced the fifth least carries. Teams generally ran fine against Cincinnati, but they didn't stick with it because they had to either keep up with the offense or they had to play catch up. When it came to the playoffs, the defense was the exact same defense, as in, mediocre in most categories except for turnovers. Cincinnati's turnover ratio exploded, and that is what catapulted them to the Super Bowl. I want to be clear - that defense was the reason they made the Super Bowl, but aside from those turnovers, they were still mediocre on a play-by-play basis. The reason I point this out is because turnovers tend to be volatile and inconsistent. Since 1999, that defense had the third most turnovers generated in a playoff run, behind the 2000 Ravens and 2002 Bucs. They were phenomenal, but also, turnovers are inconsistent. 

Final point - the defense isn't bad. They also aren't great. They were mediocre/okay/fine. Whatever you want to call what I just described. Phenomenal in the playoffs, yes, but not in a way that is typically repeatable. I think we are seeing a little bit of that now. 

[Whatever]

(09-22-2022, 07:26 PM)J24 Wrote: BS 
He made the rookie team in 2018 and had a 79.9 PFF .01 percent from elite, he was one of the top 12 safeties  in the second half of 2019, and he was regarded as the best Saftey in 2020 as mentioned earlier.  To say that his play was sporadic is flat out lie and you bleeping know it. 

Yeah he had a bad year in the regular season but he bounced back in the playoffs during the most important stretch his career.  

Also judging him off two games where he has only been targeted three times. That is clearly not enough evidence to make a judgment on a player.

PFF considers 90+ to be Elite and 85+ to be Pro Bowl quality.  79.9 falls in the mid range of Starter, which is 70-84.9.  He had a good rookie year, but nowhere close to Elite.

Bates had a 61.2 PFF grade in '19. If he was a Top 12(which still isn't really elite) S for the second half of the year like you claim, then how terrible was he the first half.  To average out at 61.2, if he was playing at an elite 91.2 level the second half, he would have to be Adeniji level bad at 31.2 the first half to average it out.  Of course, Bates had a 61.28 Passer Rating Allowed When Targeted the first half of the year and a 105.42 the second half, so your point is BS to begin with.  

PFF regarded Bates as the best S in 2020.  However, he was 2nd team All Pro, didn't make the Pro Bowl, and only ranked 90th on the NFL 100, so they're really the only ones that had him #1.  He has still never made the Pro Bowl and only made the NFL 100 once.  He is far from being unanimously regarded as an elite S, especially after last year.  

You can't sit there and constantly point to a small sample size to defend your argument (last year's playoffs), but then say others can't point to small sample sizes to defend theirs.  He looks bad so far this year, just like he was bad last year, just like he was bad in '19.  

[KillerGoose]

(09-22-2022, 07:26 PM)J24 Wrote: BS 
He made the rookie team in 2018 and had a 79.9 PFF .01 percent from elite, he was one of the top 12 safeties  in the second half of 2019, and he was regarded as the best Saftey in 2020 as mentioned earlier.  To say that his play was sporadic is flat out lie and you bleeping know it. 

Yeah he had a bad year in the regular season but he bounced back in the playoffs during the most important stretch his career.  

Also judging him off two games where he has only been targeted three times. That is clearly not enough evidence to make a judgment on a player.

You are hellbent on saying that Jessie Bates is elite, and you are one of the biggest PFF truthers on this board. If PFF says it, by god it is so. The funny thing about this is that PFF doesn't believe he is an elite safety. I don't know why you insist on referencing them when they don't even back you up. The classification of "elite" is an objective classification, not subjective. Elite is not an opinion, it is a fact - either you are, or are not. Since you are a huge PFF fan, we will use them to classify Bates. Different people are going to have different ideas of what constitutes elite, but for me, I believe it is the top five players at their given position. Sometimes that can fluctuate, but that is an objective definition of elite that I like. So, let's see where Jessie Bates has graded in overall PFF grade since coming into the league. I am using a minimum snap count of 50%, the filter they allow you to use in their stats page. 

2018 - 11th overall, 14th in coverage, 18th in tackling
2019 -  47th overall, 39th in coverage, 53rd in tackling
2020 - #1 overall, #2 in coverage, 37th in tackling (Genuinely an elite season)
2021 - 31st overall, 26th in coverage, 36th in tackling
2022 - 29th overall, 31st in coverage, 8th in tackling

Okay, so Bates average rank since coming into the league is...

24th overall, 22nd in coverage, 30th in tackling


Bates has absolutely not proven himself to be an elite safety. He had one elite season, much like Andy Dalton in 2015 (which Whatever has already pointed out) but that does not make him an elite safety, at least, not by your standards. That's the funny thing to me, is you keep referencing PFF as your source and they don't say what you think they do. 

I don't care if he made All-Rookie team, that isn't elite.

I don't care what he did in the last eight games of 2019, that doesn't make him elite. 

I don't care what he did during the playoffs, that doesn't make him elite. 

To be elite, you have to have consistently high level play, and Bates has not done that. 

[jj22]

Not even in a "blowout"....