Weekly Playoff Odds Thread

[WeezyBengal]

I am going to update this thread weekly as we come down the stretch to the playoffs.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nfl-predictions/

As of right now (11/17), according to FiveThirtyEight, the Bengals have 47% chance to make the playoffs. They have an 11% change of winning the division, a 1% chance of getting a first-round bye, and a 2% chance of actually winning the Super Bowl.

If we win this week, our chances of making the playoffs increases to 57% (this isn't based on any other game outcomes, strictly the Bengals). If we lose, they decrease to 26%.

It's kind of fun to track and play around with.

[KillerGoose]

(11-17-2022, 05:06 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: I am going to update this thread weekly as we come down the stretch to the playoffs.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nfl-predictions/

As of right now (11/17), according to FiveThirtyEight, the Bengals have 47% chance to make the playoffs. They have an 11% change of winning the division, a 1% chance of getting a first-round bye, and a 2% chance of actually winning the Super Bowl.

If we win this week, our chances of making the playoffs increases to 57% (this isn't based on any other game outcomes, strictly the Bengals). If we lose, they decrease to 26%.

It's kind of fun to track and play around with.

For anyone curious, 538 had Cincinnati at a 38% chance of making the playoffs at this point last season. That shot up to 57% if Cincinnati beat LV. I agree, I have enjoyed using this model to see all of the possibilities. 

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(11-17-2022, 05:06 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: I am going to update this thread weekly as we come down the stretch to the playoffs.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nfl-predictions/

As of right now (11/17), according to FiveThirtyEight, the Bengals have 47% chance to make the playoffs. They have an 11% change of winning the division, a 1% chance of getting a first-round bye, and a 2% chance of actually winning the Super Bowl.

If we win this week, our chances of making the playoffs increases to 57% (this isn't based on any other game outcomes, strictly the Bengals). If we lose, they decrease to 26%.

It's kind of fun to track and play around with.

Nice thread Weezy, just shows how big of a game Sunday's is. Need to win this game.

[*Awful Llama*]

Quote:...a 1% chance of getting a first-round bye...

With the obligatory:



First round bye aside, I like our chances for a WC slot. It's not a division title, sure, but it gives us a chance to win playoff games in back-to-back season, something heretofore unaccomplished.

[*Go Cards*]

Vegas odds says Bengals are presently +3,000 to make to the SB

Not bad odds if you still believe there is a chance

[Frank Booth]

bengals wont make the playoffs at 9-8. They have to go 5-3 from here on out against difficult competition. No Awuzie is a huge loss for this team

[*Go Cards*]

(11-17-2022, 05:06 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: I am going to update this thread weekly as we come down the stretch to the playoffs.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nfl-predictions/

As of right now (11/17), according to FiveThirtyEight, the Bengals have 47% chance to make the playoffs. They have an 11% change of winning the division, a 1% chance of getting a first-round bye, and a 2% chance of actually winning the Super Bowl.

If we win this week, our chances of making the playoffs increases to 57% (this isn't based on any other game outcomes, strictly the Bengals). If we lose, they decrease to 26%.

It's kind of fun to track and play around with.

If we lose it gets grim quickly, no better time to pound our arch-enemy.

[WeezyBengal]

(11-17-2022, 08:23 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: bengals wont make the playoffs at 9-8. They have to go 5-3 from here on out against difficult competition. No Awuzie is a huge loss for this team

Theres about a 50% chance they make the playoffs with 9 wins. 

One thing that works in our favor is that the AFC East is really the only other division threatening wild card berths. And those teams all play each other at least once the rest of the year... 

[WeezyBengal]

We are up to a 59% chance to make the playoffs with a 12% chance to win the division.

If we win this week, the odds jump to 78%. If we lose, they drop to about 48%. A huge 30% swing.

Games that matter this week:
Pats @Minnesota
Jets vs. Chicago
Chargers @Arizona
Bills @Detroit
Ravens @Jax
Dolphins vs. Houston

Looking ahead:

- The Jets play @Vikings and @Bills after this week. That's a brutal stretch. They will fade, especially with the Zach Wilson stuff going on.
- The Bills play @New England next week. We will get help there no matter what the result is.
- The Dolphins have a rough stretch after this week playing @49ers and then @Chargers

Biggest thing - this week would be a huge win, especially with the tough matchups other teams face coming up after this week. I don't see us getting much help this week - I expect most teams competing with us for a playoff spot end up winning this week.

[*michaelsean*]

(11-22-2022, 11:50 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: We are up to a 59% chance to make the playoffs with a 12% chance to win the division.

If we win this week, the odds jump to 78%. If we lose, they drop to about 48%. A huge 30% swing.  

Games that matter this week:
Pats @Minnesota
Jets vs. Chicago
Chargers @Arizona
Bills @Detroit
Ravens @Jax
Dolphins vs. Houston

Looking ahead:

- The Jets play @Vikings and @Bills after this week. That's a brutal stretch. They will fade, especially with the Zach Wilson stuff going on.
- The Bills play @New England next week. We will get help there no matter what the result is.
- The Dolphins have a rough stretch after this week playing @49ers and then @Chargers

Biggest thing - this week would be a huge win, especially with the tough matchups other teams face coming up after this week. I don't see us getting much help this week - I expect most teams competing with us for a playoff spot end up winning this week.

Definitely want the Bills to win.  Bengals have no shot at #1 seed, so I'm rooting for all division leaders to win against wild card competition.  Well except for Tennessee.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(11-22-2022, 11:50 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: We are up to a 59% chance to make the playoffs with a 12% chance to win the division.

If we win this week, the odds jump to 78%. If we lose, they drop to about 48%. A huge 30% swing.  

Games that matter this week:
Pats @Minnesota
Jets vs. Chicago
Chargers @Arizona
Bills @Detroit
Ravens @Jax
Dolphins vs. Houston

Looking ahead:

- The Jets play @Vikings and @Bills after this week. That's a brutal stretch. They will fade, especially with the Zach Wilson stuff going on.
- The Bills play @New England next week. We will get help there no matter what the result is.
- The Dolphins have a rough stretch after this week playing @49ers and then @Chargers

Biggest thing - this week would be a huge win, especially with the tough matchups other teams face coming up after this week. I don't see us getting much help this week - I expect most teams competing with us for a playoff spot end up winning this week.

Vikings might beat the Pats after the beat down they got by the Cowgirls. That was embarrassing, they will want to wash
the taste of that out of their mouths but the Pats have Judon who is also one of the best pass rushers in the league, so it 
won't be easy. They were able to handle Von Miller just enough to get the win over the Bills.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(11-22-2022, 05:11 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Vikings might beat the Pats after the beat down they got by the Cowgirls. That was embarrassing, they will want to wash
the taste of that out of their mouths but the Pats have Judon who is also one of the best pass rushers in the league, so it 
won't be easy. They were able to handle Von Miller just enough to get the win over the Bills.

Yeah, I think the Vikings win in Minnesota.

[MTBengalsFan]

Well? FWIW those are better odds than 538 gave them last year with the same record.

[WeezyBengal]

The Bengals currently have a 74% shot to make the playoffs.

If they win this week, that percentage goes up to 88%. If we lose it goes down to 63%.

Interestingly enough, our odds to win the division went up to 28%. If we win this week it goes up to 40%. The division is not out of the question yet.

Other games of interest this week:

Dolphins @ 49ers
Bills @ Pats
Jets @ Vikings
Chargers @ Raiders
Ravens @ Denver

It's a lot to ask, but if the results happen like I have bolded (winner) our odds go up to 91%. If we win this week and the Ravens lose, our odds to win the division go up to a whopping 60%. It's a big week.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I don't trust 538's NFL model. It is often terrible. But I do like their playoff machine that you can tinker with.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

(11-29-2022, 01:20 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: Other games of interest this week:

Dolphins @ 49ers
Bills @ Pats
Jets @ Vikings
Chargers @ Raiders
Ravens @ Denver

It's a lot to ask, but if the results happen like I have bolded (winner) our odds go up to 91%. If we win this week and the Ravens lose, our odds to win the division go up to a whopping 60%. It's a big week.

I highlighted the game that interests me most, because I think it's less clear-cut than the other four games (all with easy rooting interests). I think the Bengals' best benefit from this game depends entirely on their own performance against the Chiefs. If the Bengals win this week, then I would rather see the Patriots beat the Bills. In that scenario, we're looking much more closely at division winning prospects and thus higher playoff seeding (with the Bills and Chiefs both in the one seed race). If the Bengals lose this week, then I would prefer the Bills beat the Patriots to keep the Wild Card race kosher.

Unfortunately BUF @ NE is the Thursday Night game, so we won't have the benefit of knowing what's best when the game is being played.

[WeezyBengal]

(11-29-2022, 01:26 PM)JaggedJimmyJay Wrote: I highlighted the game that interests me most, because I think it's less clear-cut than the other four games (all with easy rooting interests). I think the Bengals' best benefit from this game depends entirely on their own performance against the Chiefs. If the Bengals win this week, then I would rather see the Patriots beat the Bills. In that scenario, we're looking much more closely at division winning prospects and thus higher playoff seeding (with the Bills and Chiefs both in the one seed race). If the Bengals lose this week, then I would prefer the Bills beat the Patriots to keep the Wild Card race kosher.

Unfortunately BUF @ NE is the Thursday Night game, so we won't have the benefit of knowing what's best when the game is being played.

I agree 100% with this. 

[QueenCity]

Seeding is whatever to me this year... I think all the teams that eventually make the playoffs will be a tough out.

Would be nice to get a home game that's my only caveat.

[*Go Cards*]

(11-29-2022, 01:20 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: The Bengals currently have a 74% shot to make the playoffs.

If they win this week, that percentage goes up to 88%. If we lose it goes down to 63%.

Interestingly enough, our odds to win the division went up to 28%. If we win this week it goes up to 40%. The division is not out of the question yet.

Other games of interest this week:

Dolphins @ 49ers
Bills @ Pats
Jets @ Vikings
Chargers @ Raiders
Ravens @ Denver

It's a lot to ask, but if the results happen like I have bolded (winner) our odds go up to 91%. If we win this week and the Ravens lose, our odds to win the division go up to a whopping 60%. It's a big week.

Hate to say this but we need the steelers to beat the Ravens both times they play, or split  and the Browns to maybe beat them.

Hate pulling for these teams so will refrain from watching and just pull for the Bengals to take care of their own business and see where the chips fall.

[WeezyBengal]

(11-29-2022, 03:06 PM)Go Cards Wrote: Hate to say this but we need the steelers to beat the Ravens both times they play, or split  and the Browns to maybe beat them.

Hate pulling for these teams so will refrain from watching and just pull for the Bengals to take care of their own business and see where the chips fall.

Call me crazy, but I think the Browns and Steelers both beat the Ravens. Maybe the Steelers don't beat them twice...but I think they def beat them at least once. The Ravens have looked like shit lately.