Can The Bengals Keep This Team Together?

[Stewy]

(12-01-2022, 12:09 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Yes. And then posted the same video from a thread he created not too long ago.

Look at me!  Look at me!  Look at me!  Look at me!  Look at me!  Look at me!  Look at me!  Look at me!  Look at me!  Look at me!  Look at me!  Look at me!  

[Emeritus]

(12-01-2022, 06:22 PM)Stewy Wrote: Look at me!  Look at me!  Look at me!  Look at me!  Look at me!  Look at me!  Look at me!  Look at me!  Look at me!  Look at me!  Look at me!  Look at me!  

Minutes are priceless in life so don't waste your quality time talking about me. I'm just a guy on a pension.

[BFritz21]

(12-01-2022, 06:07 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: Players I see leaving when their contracts run out would include Bates, Higgins and maybe Hurst.

Bates I feel like is an obvious one at this point. The Bengals drafted a couple guys who could be his replacement and the contract talks already stalled once. He seems to be playing like a guy who doesn't want to get hurt instead of going all out. Someone will over pay for the potential and maybe he plays harder with a long term contract.

Higgins is going to want to be the guy and he will never be that here since the drafting of Chase. He has the skills and ability to be the top option and there will be plenty of offers for his services when his contract runs out. I wouldn't be surprised to see him go to Jacksonville and reconnect with Lawrence in the upstart offense they are building in another year. He is an UFA after next season and on pace for 1000 yards this year even with the missed time, he's going to cost a lot and the team can't pay him, Chase and Burrow what they will all want while keeping other pieces around. It sucks, but I really think Higgins will leave and be elite elsewhere.

Hurst is one I'm not sure about. He is playing well and is the #1 TE which he has wanted to be since being drafted yet always lost out to just a great talent, be is Andrews or Pitts. A fair offer might keep him since he has good chemistry here and seems to be growing into his role with this offense, but money talks and there are other jobs out there where he'd be the top TE target and might be lured away by the money.

I wanted Bates here long-term but I don't think he's going all-out, like you said. Hopefully, he at least turns it on in the playoffs when it matters most, or if we're in elimination games to even get into the playoffs.

We still have Higgins for another year, so hopefully he keeps having a big year and someone offers us a big trade after this season. We don't let him go for nothing and he gets paid big somewhere where he's the main guy. It's a win-win.

I don't think Hurst will get a huge payday anywhere just because he'll be 30 by next season, he'll have security here, and he has Burrow throwing him the ball.

All of that could change if we find a way to draft Michael Mayer (please do!).

[Emeritus]

(12-01-2022, 12:09 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Yes. And then posted the same video from a thread he created not too long ago.

I appreciate your kindness and as my #1 fan. I have a few tickets for you. Just hit my inbox .

[Emeritus]

(11-30-2022, 09:27 PM)casear2727 Wrote: I wont be surprised if we lose an offensive player.

Who are you thinking?

[TheFan]

(12-01-2022, 06:16 PM)Emeritus Wrote:

I'm not an OP at all just a fan of the best team in the NFL. I'll be in town on Sunday for the game so your more than welcome to a T-bone steak. We'll be on 3rd street. 

Not sure you realize what OP means...

[Frank Booth]

(12-01-2022, 06:26 PM)Emeritus Wrote:

Minutes are priceless in life so don't waste your quality time talking about me. I'm just a guy on a pension.

what is this, a humble brag? 

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(12-01-2022, 06:19 PM)QueenCity Wrote: I disagree Hurst in his own words has found a home in Cincinnat think you can get him on a reasonable deal.  Uzomah IMO not only wanted a significant raise but also was auditioning for a broadcaster career in New York one day.

Higgins grew up a Bengals fan... he will be paid like a #1 in Cincinnati perhaps slightly below market level but in Cincinnati that $$$ goes further than a bigger city. Not to mention the core of Boyd, Chase, Higgins and Burrow seem like they are the types to sacrifice a bit to keep the core together.


Bates good riddance 

Easy for Hurst to find new words for a new home for 2yr/$20m or 3yr/$30m from a desperate team. It's a business and it will be his last real FA, he doesn't have long left in the NFL, and he's not even reached $15m in career earnings, so he needs to cash in on the one final time he can. I am 99% sure he chases the money, and I won't blame him for it.

Bengals can't afford to pay Higgins like a #1 while also paying Burrow and Chase. We're talking all three of them combined being roughly $110m/yr on average. You can't build anything resembling a complete team with that. It's already going to be tough to build a complete team with Burrow and Chase making ~$85m/yr on average. 

The money you save being in a more affordable city like Cincinnati is offset by the increased sponsorship money from being in a bigger city/market. LA is more expensive than Detroit, but Matthew Stafford wasn't getting national Little Caesar and AT&T commercial deals in Detroit. Not to mention if teams like the Cowboys, Jaguars, or Titans come calling, those states have no state income tax which on a 4-5yr/$100-125m deal is $4.8-6.0m saved over Ohio's state income tax.

[samhain]

(12-01-2022, 12:56 AM)Housh Wrote: No

No franchise has ever kept this many good players


We are at minimum losing one WR, Bates, and either Mixon or Pratt. And that’s me being nice. Hurst is playing himself into a CJ like contract that i know we won’t give him

The Colts kept Manning, Harrison, Wayne, Freeney, Mathis, Clark, Saturday, and Glenn for most of their period of success.  Other pieces came and went, mainly at running back and slot receiver.  You can pay several good players, you just have to draft well and know how to churn the roster.  They let Edge go to keep the others.  

The Bengals will be built similarly if they keep playing at this level.  Burrow, Chase, Maybe Higgins, a couple of defensive anchors, then churn the rest.  I doubt we see another big RB contract in the Burrow era.

Paying an title quarterback insane money is a challenge, but it's a challenge that the 90 percent of the league wishes they had to deal with.  I'm just about convinced that Burrow can make just about anyone around him good, which will make his salary a lot less difficult to mitigate.

[maclanta]

Bates, Mixon and Higgins are my best guess for who goes

Continue to invest in both lines during free agency

Draft speed for WR, RB and CB

Very few large CB deals have paid off. WR market is now too high. RB just can’t command that much of the cap


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Murdock2420]

(12-01-2022, 06:17 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: If they don't intend on extending Higgins (I don't even know if they reasonably can) then they should consider trading him rather than getting either nothing/a mere 2025 comp pick, assuming he already doesn't request a trade himself if he finds out he isn't getting extended.

AJ Brown brought back a 1st and 3rd and that's a pretty good player comp. If the Jags are indeed interested in a reunion, we could be talking their 10th overall pick and maybe a 4th rounder too (the 1st that got AJ Brown was 18th overall). That's a whole lot better than either nothing or a 2025 3rd round comp pick.

Trading Higgins would be heartbreaking to see but I agree it is the right move before you let him go away for nothing. Certainly can't afford to tag him.

(12-01-2022, 06:19 PM)QueenCity Wrote: I disagree Hurst in his own words has found a home in Cincinnat think you can get him on a reasonable deal.  Uzomah IMO not only wanted a significant raise but also was auditioning for a broadcaster career in New York one day.

Higgins grew up a Bengals fan... he will be paid like a #1 in Cincinnati perhaps slightly below market level but in Cincinnati that $$$ goes further than a bigger city. Not to mention the core of Boyd, Chase, Higgins and Burrow seem like they are the types to sacrifice a bit to keep the core together.


Bates good riddance 

I went back and forth on Hurst. There is so little depth in the NFL at TE that I could see someone tossing money at him for his production and potential but I hope he stays, he is a valuable piece and I think he is happy with being the top of the depth chart first option.

They can't afford to pay Higgins to be a #1 when Chase is going to instantly demand more money then Higgins and Burrow is going to have a huge contract. If they pay all 3 of them, Reader, Wilson, Awuzie all are going to end up being gone with no money to spend on defense. 

It's sad to see Bates in his current state, he just isn't giving 100%

[Murdock2420]

(12-01-2022, 06:28 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: I wanted Bates here long-term but I don't think he's going all-out, like you said. Hopefully, he at least turns it on in the playoffs when it matters most, or if we're in elimination games to even get into the playoffs.

We still have Higgins for another year, so hopefully he keeps having a big year and someone offers us a big trade after this season. We don't let him go for nothing and he gets paid big somewhere where he's the main guy. It's a win-win.

I don't think Hurst will get a huge payday anywhere just because he'll be 30 by next season, he'll have security here, and he has Burrow throwing him the ball.

All of that could change if we find a way to draft Michael Mayer (please do!).

The draft will certainly have an impact on all of this, although I'd expect Hurst to be signed before the draft happens.  But, if they draft a WR early that would certainly be the writing on the wall for Boyd and/or Higgins being gone sooner than later. As I said above, trading Higgins would just suck to see happen but better than the inevitable of him walking for nothing.

Bates is just so frustrating. I was a huge fan of the pick and was high on him from day 1, and to see the lack of effort this year is just so deflating. Honestly, I'm not sure that relationship is salvagable at this point, they have the picks on hand to replace him already and he just seems checked out.

[*SHRacerX*]

(11-30-2022, 09:08 PM)Emeritus Wrote:

Who's leaving?
Its a business. So lets just enjoy this ride and stop asking about who stays and who goes. I just want to go to the game Sunday and cheer.

The one thing I know about any successful franchise is that you have to have one leader.

https://youtu.be/LilcHqymgBo

Not quite the usual Debbie Downer, but I will bite:

It doesn't matter right now.  They can't keep EVERYONE, but the cap is still going to go up (potentially ALOT) from all the gambling revenue that will be generated for the NFL soon.  

Burrow is a no brainer, as is Chase.  I see on defense that Reader and Wilson are cornerstones.  Hubbard, Hendrickson, and Ossai are signed for some time.  My wish would be to also keep Higgins as I believe he is the perfect complement to Chase, and has underrated skills for both Red Zone and really anywhere on the field.  Kappa, ,Karras, and Volson are signed for some time.  McPherson will end up being the highest paid kicker in the league here.  

They will likely be spending the majority of their early picks over the next few years on CBs, OTs, DEs, and maybe more depth at safety.  I think they will try to go "cheap" at RB, TE, #4-6 WRs, depth LBs, and backup QB.

Everyone will argue that they need a top flight TE to really take advantage of the underneath cleared by Chase and Higgins, but I think most any slot WR and versatile TE (4th round or later) can do just fine with the talent at outside WR and our QB.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(12-01-2022, 08:32 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Easy for Hurst to find new words for a new home for 2yr/$20m or 3yr/$30m from a desperate team. It's a business and it will be his last real FA, he doesn't have long left in the NFL, and he's not even reached $15m in career earnings, so he needs to cash in on the one final time he can. I am 99% sure he chases the money, and I won't blame him for it.

Bengals can't afford to pay Higgins like a #1 while also paying Burrow and Chase. We're talking all three of them combined being roughly $110m/yr on average. You can't build anything resembling a complete team with that. It's already going to be tough to build a complete team with Burrow and Chase making ~$85m/yr on average. 

The money you save being in a more affordable city like Cincinnati is offset by the increased sponsorship money from being in a bigger city/market. LA is more expensive than Detroit, but Matthew Stafford wasn't getting national Little Caesar and AT&T commercial deals in Detroit. Not to mention if teams like the Cowboys, Jaguars, or Titans come calling, those states have no state income tax which on a 4-5yr/$100-125m deal is $4.8-6.0m saved over Ohio's state income tax.

This is a very common sentiment, and makes a lot of sense.  However, we don't really know just how high the salary cap will grow with all the gambling revenue.  Some think the salary cap could be as much as $300 million in 2026.  Now, will it be challenging to make a contract next year for Burrow and Higgins work (a year ahead of Chase) with only, say $230 million cap in 2023?  I would say yes.  Here is why:

The cap this year is $208 million, so it increases in one year roughly $22 million.  Holding every other contract as constants (I know they won't be, but hear me out...don't want to dive too deep into the weeds), the Bengals will save roughly $13 million when Bates is not re-signed.  They could also release Joe Mixon (as I believe there is an out after this season).  That saves roughly $23 million between the two. The cap increases $22 million in 2023 (projected).  So that is an increase in your salary cap dollars of $45 million.  Joe's salary cap hit next year would be roughly $10 million if left alone.  That is roughly $5 million salary, and $5 million of prorated signing bonus.  So, his cap hit as of today for next year would be $10 million.  If Joe signs a 10 year, $450 million dollar contract, His cap hit could be as little as $20 million by prorating the bonus across the 10 years and having the base salary grow each year as the cap will grow.  If Joe has a cap hit next year with his new contract of roughly $20 million, that would represent an increase of just $10 million over the current projected cap hit if he wasn't given a new contract.  You have already freed more than that up with the savings from Bates and Mixon.  

I hope that makes sense.  Yes, there will be Wilson to extend and possibly Pratt, maybe Jonah, but I think they can make it work.  My biggest question would be if the Bengals have the CASH to pay Joe the bonus all upfront (which gets prorated for cap purposes).  That could be a huge chunk of change.  Might have to sell the Lumina.  

[Rubekahn29]

Offense-
I see Burrow and Chase essentially being given what they want.
I think they try hard for Higgins but it’s going to be a business decision for him.

Boyd may stick because he won’t command as much and won’t get as much as Higgins on the market. But if he goes, I’d understand.

They’ll let Mixon walk unless he takes something cheap. They’ll draft a RB in the future.

Defense-
Bates Walks
Gotta try and Keep Wilson as much as possible. Try and keep Vonn Bell, and keep DJ Reader. I think everyone else is replaceable, though I’d love to see guys like Pratt back.

I’m not sure who has what left on their deals, but those would be my priority,

[WeezyBengal]

(12-01-2022, 06:07 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: Players I see leaving when their contracts run out would include Bates, Higgins and maybe Hurst.

Bates I feel like is an obvious one at this point. The Bengals drafted a couple guys who could be his replacement and the contract talks already stalled once. He seems to be playing like a guy who doesn't want to get hurt instead of going all out. Someone will over pay for the potential and maybe he plays harder with a long term contract.

Higgins is going to want to be the guy and he will never be that here since the drafting of Chase. He has the skills and ability to be the top option and there will be plenty of offers for his services when his contract runs out. I wouldn't be surprised to see him go to Jacksonville and reconnect with Lawrence in the upstart offense they are building in another year. He is an UFA after next season and on pace for 1000 yards this year even with the missed time, he's going to cost a lot and the team can't pay him, Chase and Burrow what they will all want while keeping other pieces around. It sucks, but I really think Higgins will leave and be elite elsewhere.

Hurst is one I'm not sure about. He is playing well and is the #1 TE which he has wanted to be since being drafted yet always lost out to just a great talent, be is Andrews or Pitts. A fair offer might keep him since he has good chemistry here and seems to be growing into his role with this offense, but money talks and there are other jobs out there where he'd be the top TE target and might be lured away by the money.

Not sure why you get this feeling. I've never ever once got that feeling from Higgins. 

Higgins is not an elite number 1 and will never be. The Higgins/Chase situation totally reminds me of the Marvin Jones/AJ Green situation from years ago.

I think Higgins can leave and be a decently productive number 1 - but not an elite, top 5 receiver in the NFL. 

To me it's all about the money with Higgins. If the Bengals offer him similar to what he can get in FA, I think he stays. That's a big IF though. 

[WeezyBengal]

(12-02-2022, 11:45 AM)Rubekahn29 Wrote: Offense-
I see Burrow and Chase essentially being given what they want.
I think they try hard for Higgins but it’s going to be a business decision for him.

Boyd may stick because he won’t command as much and won’t get as much as Higgins on the market. But if he goes, I’d understand.

They’ll let Mixon walk unless he takes something cheap. They’ll draft a RB in the future.

Defense-
Bates Walks
Gotta try and Keep Wilson as much as possible. Try and keep Vonn Bell, and keep DJ Reader. I think everyone else is replaceable, though I’d love to see guys like Pratt back.

I’m not sure who has what left on their deals, but those would be my priority,

IMO Pratt has shown himself to be almost a bigger keep than Wilson this year. He is playing at a REALLY high level. Hopefully they can extend both Pratt and Wilson because that's a really solid LB corp if you can. 

[Rubekahn29]

(12-02-2022, 11:57 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: IMO Pratt has shown himself to be almost a bigger keep than Wilson this year. He is playing at a REALLY high level. Hopefully they can extend both Pratt and Wilson because that's a really solid LB corp if you can. 

Pratt has played very well and I hope they keep him, but make not mistake Wilson is the quarterback of that defense.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(12-02-2022, 11:26 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: This is a very common sentiment, and makes a lot of sense.  However, we don't really know just how high the salary cap will grow with all the gambling revenue.  Some think the salary cap could be as much as $300 million in 2026.  Now, will it be challenging to make a contract next year for Burrow and Higgins work (a year ahead of Chase) with only, say $230 million cap in 2023?  I would say yes.  Here is why:

The cap this year is $208 million, so it increases in one year roughly $22 million.  Holding every other contract as constants (I know they won't be, but hear me out...don't want to dive too deep into the weeds), the Bengals will save roughly $13 million when Bates is not re-signed.  They could also release Joe Mixon (as I believe there is an out after this season).  That saves roughly $23 million between the two. The cap increases $22 million in 2023 (projected).  So that is an increase in your salary cap dollars of $45 million.  Joe's salary cap hit next year would be roughly $10 million if left alone.  That is roughly $5 million salary, and $5 million of prorated signing bonus.  So, his cap hit as of today for next year would be $10 million.  If Joe signs a 10 year, $450 million dollar contract, His cap hit could be as little as $20 million by prorating the bonus across the 10 years and having the base salary grow each year as the cap will grow.  If Joe has a cap hit next year with his new contract of roughly $20 million, that would represent an increase of just $10 million over the current projected cap hit if he wasn't given a new contract.  You have already freed more than that up with the savings from Bates and Mixon.  

I hope that makes sense.  Yes, there will be Wilson to extend and possibly Pratt, maybe Jonah, but I think they can make it work.  My biggest question would be if the Bengals have the CASH to pay Joe the bonus all upfront (which gets prorated for cap purposes).  That could be a huge chunk of change.  Might have to sell the Lumina.  

He isn't going to take the Mahomes deal. That deal will be 3 years old next offseason and he has already slipped to the 5th highest paid QB. If you know that the cap is going to rise a ton over the next few years, be sure that the players and agents know that too.

Not to mention that would mean Burrow taking less per year than Watson in his own division, as well as less than Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson. (And Herbert when he gets paid next off-season too.)

Nobody is taking a 10 year deal right now because they want to be able to renegotiate an extension in a few years when there is more cap space pumping up contract numbers further. A lot of 4-5 year deals for highly paid QBs.

You ninja'd but it might be true that the Browns/Blackburns could have trouble throwing all the guaranteed money from a Burrow, Higgins, AND Chase deal into escrow. That has to be actual cash, not just worth-backed.

- - - - - - - 

There isn't really any savings from Bates walking. That money is already gone. Guys already under contract are getting larger cap hits. Hendrickson next year is $2m more, BJ Hill is $2.5m more, Hubbard is $3m more, Chase is $1.5m more, Cappa is $2m more, Jonah is $7m more, Collins is $3m more. Plus you need to re-sign Bell (he will likely be more expensive) and find a TE. Plus other guys with smaller increases in cap hits.

[*SHRacerX*]

(12-02-2022, 12:20 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: He isn't going to take the Mahomes deal. That deal will be 3 years old next offseason and he has already slipped to the 5th highest paid QB. If you know that the cap is going to rise a ton over the next few years, be sure that the players and agents know that too.

Not to mention that would mean Burrow taking less per year than Watson in his own division, as well as less than Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson. (And Herbert when he gets paid next off-season too.)

Nobody is taking a 10 year deal right now because they want to be able to renegotiate an extension in a few years when there is more cap space pumping up contract numbers further. A lot of 4-5 year deals for highly paid QBs.

You ninja'd but it might be true that the Browns/Blackburns could have trouble throwing all the guaranteed money from a Burrow, Higgins, AND Chase deal into escrow. That has to be actual cash, not just worth-backed.

- - - - - - - 

There isn't really any savings from Bates walking. That money is already gone. Guys already under contract are getting larger cap hits. Hendrickson next year is $2m more, BJ Hill is $2.5m more, Hubbard is $3m more, Chase is $1.5m more, Cappa is $2m more, Jonah is $7m more, Collins is $3m more. Plus you need to re-sign Bell (he will likely be more expensive) and find a TE. Plus other guys with smaller increases in cap hits.

I wouldn't be so certain about the "less than Watson per year" as a hangup.  It will be all about the guarantee, something the Bengals USUALLY avoid.  However, I could see about $300 million of Burrow's contract being guaranteed.  And that is worth a lot to a player compared to the ego of saying it is more per year than someone else.  Watson's deal was so incredibly stupid that I can't see it factoring in.  Browns were desperate and have probably screwed their franchise for at least 5 years.  I think Watson will suck ass when he returns.  

Also, the Bates money does matter because they will not be paying $13 million next year to a guy that they did this year.  Sure, it will be eaten up by other contracts, but letting Bates walk and replacing him with a late first round rookie is a huge savings.