What does it take to clinch a playoff spot?

[*PhilHos*]

We're 4 games left and haven't officially clinched a playoff spot. Usually we start to see the "x team needs # of wins and/or # losses from y and z teams". I haven't seen any of that yet.

So, what needs to happen for the Bengals to at least clinch a playoff spot? Besides winning out, that is.

[wcu]

This article says we need to win 2 of the remaining 4 to guarantee a playoff spot, but there are also scenarios where we could lose out and still get the 6 or 7 seed. We hold tie breakers over the Jets, Dolphins, and Titans and hopefully soon the Patriots and Bills.

https://www.cleveland.com/bengals/2022/12/how-did-sundays-win-over-the-browns-affect-the-bengals-playoff-chances.html

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/bengalswhatif.html

This site is pretty cool. It lays out a bunch of scenarios with associated statistics. It says if we win out, we have a 53% chance of being the 2 seed and 47% chance of being the 1. If we lose out, it gives us a 62% chance of making the playoffs.

This is a very cool tool from the NY Times that lets you see how our playoff chances and seeding changes depending on the individual games we win/lose: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/upshot/cincinnati-bengals-nfl-playoff-picture.html#tb-cin-15=loss&ne-cin-16=loss&cin-buf-17=win&cin-bal-18=win

Doing a very cursory simulation, it looks like:

1. We win out and the Chiefs win out, we're the 2 seed.
2. We win out and the Chiefs lose one, we're the 1 seed.
3. We lose to the Bills, but win the rest of our games, we're the 3 seed.
4. We lose to the Ravens, but win the rest of our games, we're the 5 seed.
5. We lose to the Ravens and Bills, but win the rest of our games, we're the 5 seed.
6. We lose to the Ravens, Bills, and one other, we're the 7 seed.
7. We lose out and miss the playoffs.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(12-14-2022, 12:36 PM)PhilHos Wrote: We're 4 games left and haven't officially clinched a playoff spot. Usually we start to see the "x team needs # of wins and/or # losses from y and z teams". I haven't seen any of that yet.

So, what needs to happen for the Bengals to at least clinch a playoff spot? Besides winning out, that is.

We have a two game lead on 8th with 4 to play. There are no clinching scenarios for us this week. 

If we win this week, and several of the 7-6 teams lose (Jets, Chargers, Pats), then next week we could clinch. Heck, if we win this week, there are gonna be scenarios for next week, as a loss for the 7-6 cohort would then out them 3 back with two games left. 

If we win the next two games, the Pats cannot catch us since we play them after Tampa. We'd need one of the Jets/Chargers to lose one of their next two. 

[motoarch]

We could probably clinch this weekend if things fall right.

[XenoMorph]

(12-14-2022, 12:36 PM)PhilHos Wrote: We're 4 games left and haven't officially clinched a playoff spot. Usually we start to see the "x team needs # of wins and/or # losses from y and z teams". I haven't seen any of that yet.

So, what needs to happen for the Bengals to at least clinch a playoff spot? Besides winning out, that is.

This is a fun thing to play with..

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/upshot/cincinnati-bengals-nfl-playoff-picture.html

[bctn8n]

I seen on CBS Sports that their computer program has us a virtual lock for the playoffs at 99.9%

[*Go Cards*]

What does it take to clinch a playoff spot ?

An unclenched sphincter !

[Speedy Thomas]

Way too much for my poor old brain to comprehend.

Keeping it simple: Bengals win 3 of 4, Ratbirds go 2-2, and we are AFC North champs.

Or fork the Rat Turds, just win out.

WHO FREAKIN' DEY

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(12-14-2022, 01:25 PM)motoarch Wrote: We could probably clinch this weekend if things fall right.

Nope. 

The best we can do is be up 3 games with 3 to play. With 3 CONFERENCE games left to play. We could not secure that TB with 3 games left. 

And while we have the head to head with NY, in certain 3 team scenarios that can be meaningless. And the Pats could still beat us to win that H2H. We did not platly the Chargers this year. Unfortunately, NY & NE do not play each other again. 

Schedules: 
Bengals: at TB, at NE, Buff, Balt. 
NE: at Raiders, Cincy, Mia, at Buff.
Chargers: Tenn, at Indy, Rams, at Denver.
Jets: Det, Jax, at Sea, at Mia

I think the Chargers get in. I think they have the easiest schedule left AND are the best team of the three. I'd take them over Tennessee and Baltimore and they just beat Miami. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(12-14-2022, 01:33 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: This is a fun thing to play with..

Man, that takes me all the way back to when i was 8 years old...

[TheFan]

(12-14-2022, 12:46 PM)wcu Wrote: This article says we need to win 2 of the remaining 4 to guarantee a playoff spot, but there are also scenarios where we could lose out and still get the 6 or 7 seed.  We hold tie breakers over the Jets, Dolphins, and Titans and hopefully soon the Patriots and Bills.  

https://www.cleveland.com/bengals/2022/12/how-did-sundays-win-over-the-browns-affect-the-bengals-playoff-chances.html

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/bengalswhatif.html

This site is pretty cool.  It lays out a bunch of scenarios with associated statistics.  It says if we win out, we have a 53% chance of being the 2 seed and 47% chance of being the 1.  If we lose out, it gives us a 62% chance of making the playoffs.

This is a very cool tool from the NY Times that lets you see how our playoff chances and seeding changes depending on the individual games we win/lose: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/upshot/cincinnati-bengals-nfl-playoff-picture.html#tb-cin-15=loss&ne-cin-16=loss&cin-buf-17=win&cin-bal-18=win

Doing a very cursory simulation, it looks like:

1. We win out and the Chiefs win out, we're the 2 seed.
2. We win out and the Chiefs lose one, we're the 1 seed.
3. We lose to the Bills, but win the rest of our games, we're the 3 seed.
4. We lose to the Ravens, but win the rest of our games, we're the 5 seed.
5. We lose to the Ravens and Bills, but win the rest of our games, we're the 5 seed.
6. We lose to the Ravens, Bills, and one other, we're the 7 seed.
7. We lose out and miss the playoffs.

Not all of those scenarios are true and largely are dependent on what other teams do. If we only lose against the Ravens but they drop 2 of their last 4, which is certainly possible, we would still win the division. 

I'm sure you probably realize that but wanted to point it out for others who may quickly glance through.

[Earendil]

I think the real answer to this question is in Nicomo Cosca's signature.

Joe Burrow

[Essex Johnson]

2 wins against AFC teams, and I feel we are in... 1-3 i feel we miss out

[WeezyBengal]

(12-14-2022, 04:15 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: 2 wins against AFC teams, and I feel we are in... 1-3 i feel we miss out

Granted the AFC East all plays each other once if not more, 10 wins will most likely do it. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(12-14-2022, 12:36 PM)PhilHos Wrote: We're 4 games left and haven't officially clinched a playoff spot. Usually we start to see the "x team needs # of wins and/or # losses from y and z teams". I haven't seen any of that yet.

So, what needs to happen for the Bengals to at least clinch a playoff spot? Besides winning out, that is.

Easiest route is to win the next 2. 

[motoarch]

(12-14-2022, 02:29 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Nope. 

The best we can do is be up 3 games with 3 to play. With 3 CONFERENCE games left to play. We could not secure that TB with 3 games left. 

And while we have the head to head with NY, in certain 3 team scenarios that can be meaningless. And the Pats could still beat us to win that H2H. We did not platly the Chargers this year. Unfortunately, NY & NE do not play each other again. 

Schedules: 
Bengals: at TB, at NE, Buff, Balt. 
NE: at Raiders, Cincy, Mia, at Buff.
Chargers: Tenn, at Indy, Rams, at Denver.
Jets: Det, Jax, at Sea, at Mia

I think the Chargers get in. I think they have the easiest schedule left AND are the best team of the three. I'd take them over Tennessee and Baltimore and they just beat Miami. 

Eh I can't be bothered to look that deep into it.

I think Miami and buffalo make it.  Ravens and Bengals with jets pats and chargers fighting for the last spot.

And I think 10 wins will be enough as of the 5 teams fighting it out surely not all of them will even reach 10.  Too many 7-6 teams will need to go 3-1 for that to happen.

Obviously I could be wrong and there might be a surprise in there but I just don't see jets chargers or pats going 3-1.  Maybe one of them and even that wouldn't knock cinny out.  Chargers with there schedule are the most likely I think.  NE has a brutal schedule; they're toast.

[*Awful Llama*]

(12-14-2022, 02:31 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Man, that takes me all the way back to when i was 8 years old...

I...er...know the feeling.  This song always takes me back.  





My Dad had a copy of that but my Mom wouldn't let him play it on the stereo in my presence because she considered it a 'filthy' song 

[*rfaulk34*]

(12-14-2022, 08:04 PM)motoarch Wrote: Eh I can't be bothered to look that deep into it.

I think Miami and buffalo make it.  Ravens and Bengals with jets pats and chargers fighting for the last spot.

And I think 10 wins will be enough as of the 5 teams fighting it out surely not all of them will even reach 10.  Too many 7-6 teams will need to go 3-1 for that to happen.

Obviously I could be wrong and there might be a surprise in there but I just don't see jets chargers or pats going 3-1.  Maybe one of them and even that wouldn't knock cinny out.  Chargers with there schedule are the most likely I think.  NE has a brutal schedule; they're toast.

Yeah. I think NE bites it. Looking at their schedule, they should lose at least 2 more games. It's going to come down to NYJ and LAC for that 7th spot and i think the Jets have the tougher schedule. 

That would line up with what i was thinking a couple weeks ago. I just hope Miami is able to pull out the division win, since they play the Bills this week and the Bengals could help them out in a couple weeks, they would have to win out with Buffalo losing those two, it would give Miami a better division record. I'd much rather see Buffalo have to travel to KC than Miami. 

I don't see KC dropping any more so the Bengals need to get that #2 seed to set them up in the best possible scenario, even if that scenario means LAC coming here. 

[*Awful Llama*]

(12-14-2022, 10:17 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Yeah. I think NE bites it. Looking at their schedule, they should lose at least 2 more games. It's going to come down to NYJ and LAC for that 7th spot and i think the Jets have the tougher schedule. 

That would line up with what i was thinking a couple weeks ago. I just hope Miami is able to pull out the division win, since they play the Bills this week and the Bengals could help them out in a couple weeks, they would have to win out with Buffalo losing those two, it would give Miami a better division record. I'd much rather see Buffalo have to travel to KC than Miami. 

I don't see KC dropping any more so the Bengals need to get that #2 seed to set them up in the best possible scenario, even if that scenario means LAC coming here. 

I know many are concerned about facing the Chargers come playoff time, but I would actually like to see it.  We could consider it part of our playoff revenge tour.  We owe them for that debacle I and 65,000 others sat through in January, 2014. Bring that warm weather dome team to Ohio in January and we'll send their tan hides back to Cali with an L, with all of 'em crying like Dan Fouts!  

[guyofthetiger]

It still gets rather complicated with 4 weeks left. Just keep winning is the best scenario.