Playoff Clinching Scenarios

[spazz70]

(12-19-2022, 12:38 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I just plugged this scenario into the playoff simulator and it still has us as the 7th seed over the Jets because we beat them in our head to head.

I think we've already clinched a playoff spot. I can't come up with a scenario in which we don't make it in.

Pretty much...NE, NYJ and Dolphins all play each other or us... I want the division and a home game.

[BoomerFan]

(12-19-2022, 12:38 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I just plugged this scenario into the playoff simulator and it still has us as the 7th seed over the Jets because we beat them in our head to head.

I think we've already clinched a playoff spot. I can't come up with a scenario in which we don't make it in.

I think when you have a multi-way tie, the head to heads stop mattering? I tried it too and couldn't figure a way for us not to get in so that is the only thing I can figure. 

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(12-19-2022, 09:03 AM)Rubekahn29 Wrote: Jags are playing really well right now, so I could very easily see us being in before Christmas Eve.

Yes they are. Lawrence is finally getting his legs under him, and his WRs are no slouches. They could be a dark horse next year.

[Science Friction]

(12-19-2022, 03:18 PM)Wyche Wrote: Yes they are. Lawrence is finally getting his legs under him, and his WRs are no slouches. They could be a dark horse next year.

Lawrence shows flashes of being really good. Barring injury, I think he will be really good.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(12-19-2022, 03:23 PM)Science Friction Wrote: Lawrence shows flashes of being really good. Barring injury, I think he will be really good.

Yep, I do too. He was really in a bad situation last year as a rookie. He has the arm, just gotta put the rest of it together consistently. If he does, the AFC is stacked with good, young QBs.

[Murdock2420]

(12-19-2022, 01:36 AM)bfine32 Wrote: But what if the Bengals and the Pats both win this week?

[Nicomo Cosca]

(12-19-2022, 03:23 PM)Science Friction Wrote: Lawrence shows flashes of being really good. Barring injury, I think he will be really good.

I could see the top 5 looking something like this for the foreseeable future.

Mahomes
Burrow
Allen
Herbert
Lawrence

[higgy100]

(12-19-2022, 03:29 PM)Wyche Wrote: Yep, I do too. He was really in a bad situation last year as a rookie. He has the arm, just gotta put the rest of it together consistently. If he does, the AFC is stacked with good, young QBs.

And also being in a cluster-fark situation with Meyer, etc.

[Murdock2420]

(12-19-2022, 03:18 PM)Wyche Wrote: Yes they are. Lawrence is finally getting his legs under him, and his WRs are no slouches. They could be a dark horse next year.

If Tennessee continues to tank, they could actually sneak in this year.

But 100% they are going to be a factor next year and going forward especially since they added Calvin Ridley for a 4th and a 5th round pick. When he is on the field and focused on the game, guy is amazing. If he gets back to his old form after suspension, that team is scary good on offense.


Need to fix their defense before they would be a true Super Bowl threat, but they don't need to spend much draft capital on offense so they might be able to do it.

[Science Friction]

(12-19-2022, 03:37 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote:

Maybe there's still a chance of us winning LAST season's Superbowl.

[Luvnit2]

(12-19-2022, 03:59 AM)BengalYankee Wrote: You are missing the conference record. 
The below can still happen.

Regular             Conference
LA     11 - 6        8-4
MIA   10 - 7        8-4
NE     10 - 7        7-5
Jets    10 - 7       7 -5
Cincy 10 -7         6-6
  

I think the only way we don't get in is if the Pats win out and we go 0-3. So we need to take care of business and knock the Pats out of the playoffs. I definitely see a way Chargers go 11-6 and win a WC. Last wildcard will be Ravens or us more than likely.

[cinci4life]

(12-19-2022, 12:38 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I just plugged this scenario into the playoff simulator and it still has us as the 7th seed over the Jets because we beat them in our head to head.

I think we've already clinched a playoff spot. I can't come up with a scenario in which we don't make it in.

Jets and Patriots are the only 2 teams outside of the WC that can tie us record wise. If we lose out and Pats win out they would be in over us because of the head to head matchup this coming Saturday. Even if the Jets win out too they first use a division tiebreaker which eliminates the Jets first and once again leaving it between us and the Pats. Simply put it comes down to us either winning one or Pats losing one to officially clinch.

[RiverRat13]

(12-19-2022, 12:38 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I just plugged this scenario into the playoff simulator and it still has us as the 7th seed over the Jets because we beat them in our head to head.

I think we've already clinched a playoff spot. I can't come up with a scenario in which we don't make it in.

I wasted too much time on this but here we go:

Bengals go 0-3

Chargers lose to the Colts but win their final two games

Jets win out

New England wins out

That will knock the Bengals out on the simulator.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(12-19-2022, 02:32 PM)BoomerFan Wrote: I think when you have a multi-way tie, the head to heads stop mattering? I tried it too and couldn't figure a way for us not to get in so that is the only thing I can figure. 

The only way head to head applies in a multi-way tie is if all the teams have played each other. If so, then the team with the best record in the combined games gets in. 

But since we have not played the Chargers, conference record would be first. And, of course, if we loose to the Pats (a must in a tie with them), we'd loose that head to head. 

We most certainly have not mathematically clinched. Again, somone posted it upthread. 

1. Bengals lose out. Finish 10-7. 6-6 in conference. 
2. Bills and Chiefs win divisions, are #1 and #2 seeds. Bills beat us. 
3. Baltimore wins our division. #3 seed. They beat us. Obviously. 
4. Whomever wins the AFC south is #4. 
5. Miami wins 2 of 3. Ws vs Pack & Jets, L at Pats. 10-7. 8-5 conf. 
6. Chargers win at least 2 of 3: at Indy, Rams, at Den. L vs AFC team.10-7, 7-5 conf. 
7. Pats win out. 10-7. 8-4 conf. 

In this scenario, the TB goes: 

1. Step 1: ID the top ranked teams in each division. The Pats/Dolphins split in this scenario, but the Pats win on Div record. So the TB is between NE, Chragers, & us. 

2. Step 2: Head to head. Cannot do DIV TBs as teams are in 3 DIV. H2H does not apply b/c we did not play the Chargers. Conf record is then the TB, and the Pats are best, at 8-4. 

3. Step 3. Start over with the remaing tied teams: Cincy, Mia, Chargers.Note Miami is NOT eliminated despite being 2nd in their division behind the Pats. The procedure is to ID the team that qualifies first, then start over with all remaining tied tied teams. Diffetent divisions. H2H not apply (no Cincy v Chargers game). Conf record is the decider, MIami best at 8-5. 

4. Step 4. Start over. 2 teams from different divisions. No head to head. Conf record. Bolts better. 7-5 vs our 6-6. 

Bills, Chiefs, Ravens, Titans/Jags, Pats, Fins, Bolts. There may be more scenarios involving the Jets. 

If the Chargers finish with a better conf record than Miami, they could qualify 2nd, and then we'd win a tie with Miami on H2H. 

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

Beat the Patriots and we are in for sure. Then we look at one game at a time going for the #1 seed.

The Chiefs nearly lost to the Texans yesterday for heck sake. They could easily lose to the Squawks.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-19-2022, 03:18 PM)Wyche Wrote: Yes they are. Lawrence is finally getting his legs under him, and his WRs are no slouches. They could be a dark horse next year.

(12-19-2022, 03:23 PM)Science Friction Wrote: Lawrence shows flashes of being really good. Barring injury, I think he will be really good.

Same, Think Trevor will be another really good QB in the AFC.

(12-19-2022, 03:29 PM)Wyche Wrote: Yep, I do too. He was really in a bad situation last year as a rookie. He has the arm, just gotta put the rest of it together consistently. If he does, the AFC is stacked with good, young QBs.

I like how he is having fun out there, watched them beat the Cowboys yesterday and it was a great game. I like how the Jags always
think they can win, similar to us. The teams that are scary right now are the Bengals, Lions and Jaguars IMO.

[cinci4life]

So apparently if the Jets lose to the Jags Thursday night we clinch a playoff spot. Not exactly sure how but that's what it says.

https://www.nfl.com/news/playoff-clinching-scenarios-for-week-16-of-2022-nfl-season

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-19-2022, 05:53 PM)cinci4life Wrote: So apparently if the Jets lose to the Jags Thursday night we clinch a playoff spot. Not exactly sure how but that's what it says.

https://www.nfl.com/news/playoff-clinching-scenarios-for-week-16-of-2022-nfl-season

And I could definitely see that happening.

[GodFather]

We are in, the real fun at this point is will we be able to secure the number 1 spot? If we win out and Chiefs lose just one more game we are at number 1 with home field advantage and a bye. How great would that be?

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-19-2022, 05:57 PM)GodFather Wrote: We are in, the real fun at this point is will we be able to secure the number 1 spot?  If we win out and Chiefs lose just one more game we are at number 1 with home field advantage and a bye. How great would that be?

That is what we are after. Pretty sweet. We even say it.