Joe Burrow To Capture NFL's All-Time Leading Completion Percentage Mark Against Bills

[kdgjr]

https://www.si.com/nfl/bengals/allbengals-insiders-plus/joe-burrow-to-capture-nfls-all-time-leading-completion-percentage-mark-against-bills


Nice.

[leonardfan40]

Sweet! Let’s not throw 12 in the dirt though. Instead he should just start 12/12 to pad his record.

[Housh]

Insane that completion % wise he is the best QB ever



Obviously sample size is important but it’s still special non the less. If he’s already figured out NFL defenses this much in year 3 i don’t see much drop off.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(12-30-2022, 02:53 PM)Housh Wrote: Insane that completion % wise he is the best QB ever



Obviously sample size is important but it’s still special non the less. If he’s already figured out NFL defenses this much in year 3 i don’t see much drop off.

It's very impressive by Burrow, but also it's representative of the NFL league-wide lately. 

League Average Comp% When Entered NFL (Difference Between Last)
Burrow (2020): 65.2% (+5.1%)
Dalton (2011): 60.1% (+1.3%)
Palmer (2003): 58.8% (+1.7%)
A Smith (1999): 57.1% (-0.4%)
Klinger (1992): 57.5% (+0.9%)
Esiason (1984): 56.4%

Gradual increase for the most part with a HUGE jump lately. So it's really mostly just him competing with guys from the last decade with a couple vets sprinkled in. Jimmy G is the 2nd in Comp% in NFL history right now, Watson is 3rd, Prescott is 4th, Herbert is 5th. 8 of the top 10 career Cmp% played this year and when Burrow qualifies it will become 9 of the top 10.

[KillerGoose]

(12-30-2022, 06:16 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: It's very impressive by Burrow, but also it's representative of the NFL league-wide lately. 

League Average Comp% When Entered NFL (Difference Between Last)
Burrow (2020): 65.2% (+5.1%)
Dalton (2011): 60.1% (+1.3%)
Palmer (2003): 58.8% (+1.7%)
A Smith (1999): 57.1% (-0.4%)
Klinger (1992): 57.5% (+0.9%)
Esiason (1984): 56.4%

Gradual increase for the most part with a HUGE jump lately. So it's really mostly just him competing with guys from the last decade with a couple vets sprinkled in. Jimmy G is the 2nd in Comp% in NFL history right now, Watson is 3rd, Prescott is 4th, Herbert is 5th. 8 of the top 10 career Cmp% played this year and when Burrow qualifies it will become 9 of the top 10.

Great post. As always, we have to look at it in an era adjusted manner. This isn't to take anything away from Burrow, you're 100% correct. It is just the natural evolution of the game. As far as QBs have truly dominated their era, it goes something like this...

Steve Young - 64.3% (7.8% above league average during his career)
Joe Montana - 63.2% (7.2% above league average during his career)
Drew Brees - 67.7% (6.4% above league average during his career)
Chad Pennington - 66% (6.1% above league average during his career)

And so on, so forth. These are guys at the top. Right now, Burrow is averaging 3.7% above league average. Impressive, but not dominant. 

[HarleyDog]

(12-30-2022, 02:53 PM)Housh Wrote: Insane that completion % wise he is the best QB ever



Obviously sample size is important but it’s still special non the less. If he’s already figured out NFL defenses this much in year 3 i don’t see much drop off.

(12-30-2022, 06:16 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: It's very impressive by Burrow, but also it's representative of the NFL league-wide lately. 

League Average Comp% When Entered NFL (Difference Between Last)
Burrow (2020): 65.2% (+5.1%)
Dalton (2011): 60.1% (+1.3%)
Palmer (2003): 58.8% (+1.7%)
A Smith (1999): 57.1% (-0.4%)
Klinger (1992): 57.5% (+0.9%)
Esiason (1984): 56.4%

Gradual increase for the most part with a HUGE jump lately. So it's really mostly just him competing with guys from the last decade with a couple vets sprinkled in. Jimmy G is the 2nd in Comp% in NFL history right now, Watson is 3rd, Prescott is 4th, Herbert is 5th. 8 of the top 10 career Cmp% played this year and when Burrow qualifies it will become 9 of the top 10.

All this with a crappy OL for a few years. That’s special.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-30-2022, 07:04 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: All this with a crappy OL for a few years. That’s special.

You know it Dog. That is what really makes this so impressive from Burrow.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(12-30-2022, 07:04 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: All this with a crappy OL for a few years. That’s special.

(12-30-2022, 07:31 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: You know it Dog. That is what really makes this so impressive from Burrow.

Sure, but I am just pointing out that if the league average completion % when Burrow entered the league was a player's career %, they would be the 16th highest in NFL history. This year the league average would be 19th in NFL history if it were a player's career %. That's including all of the terrible QBs we all watch play every week this year. The NFL is averaging almost 7 players each year with a % higher than Brees' 67.7% mark the last 3 years.

So the pool of players he's actually competing with is really quite small even though we say "history". 

It's still impressive, because he was 1st last year and is 3rd this year among his peers, so he's dominating in his own era.

What we need is a career Cmp%+ list so we can actually compare across eras.

[*bengalfan74*]

He's awesome

[*Go Cards*]

As Dog pointed out, just think what he could have done with better O-line play ?

Joe is the Man !

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(12-30-2022, 07:51 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Sure, but I am just pointing out that if the league average completion % when Burrow entered the league was a player's career %, they would be the 16th highest in NFL history. This year the league average would be 19th in NFL history if it were a player's career %. That's including all of the terrible QBs we all watch play every week this year. The NFL is averaging almost 7 players each year with a % higher than Brees' 67.7% mark the last 3 years.

So the pool of players he's actually competing with is really quite small even though we say "history". 

It's still impressive, because he was 1st last year and is 3rd this year among his peers, so he's dominating in his own era.

What we need is a career Cmp%+ list so we can actually compare across eras.

Comparing to league average is a good method. It is not flawless, but more insightful than just the raw numbers.  

Short passing has replaced the running game nowadays. The rules are MUCH more friendly to WRs and QBs. When I started watching football, DEs could head slap the OL, WRs going over the middle would get obliterated, DBs used stickem, and you could hit the QB. Hard. Because of the rule changes, teams pass more. Another thing that never used to happen is the 3rd down checkdown short of the sticks. That never used to happen. What is the point? It happens all the time now. Drives me nuts. 

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-30-2022, 07:51 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Sure, but I am just pointing out that if the league average completion % when Burrow entered the league was a player's career %, they would be the 16th highest in NFL history. This year the league average would be 19th in NFL history if it were a player's career %. That's including all of the terrible QBs we all watch play every week this year. The NFL is averaging almost 7 players each year with a % higher than Brees' 67.7% mark the last 3 years.

So the pool of players he's actually competing with is really quite small even though we say "history". 

It's still impressive, because he was 1st last year and is 3rd this year among his peers, so he's dominating in his own era.

What we need is a career Cmp%+ list so we can actually compare across eras.

Yeah, but wasn't it just a couple months ago and we were arguing how BAD the QB's were in the NFL right now out of the top 5?

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(12-30-2022, 10:14 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Yeah, but wasn't it just a couple months ago and we were arguing how BAD the QB's were in the NFL right now out of the top 5?

And they still are (I don't know if it's 5), but the NFL has changed rules so much and schemes have adjusted so much that it's easier for even bad QBs to complete short passes, and defenses are now employing a lot more bend-don't-break mindsets where they are allowing the shorter passes and betting you can't do it enough times in a row to drive down a field.

There are 32 qualified passers in the NFL, and only 1 of them has a Cmp% below 60.0% (Zack Wilson), and only 11 have one below 64.0%. How did that happen? It's because Yards Per Completion is the lowest it has been in NFL history. (Also passing yards per game is also at it's lowest since 2009, and passing TDs are at it's lowest since 2008.)

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-30-2022, 11:58 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: And they still are (I don't know if it's 5), but the NFL has changed rules so much and schemes have adjusted so much that it's easier for even bad QBs to complete short passes, and defenses are now employing a lot more bend-don't-break mindsets where they are allowing the shorter passes and betting you can't do it enough times in a row to drive down a field.

There are 32 qualified passers in the NFL, and only 1 of them has a Cmp% below 60.0% (Zack Wilson), and only 11 have one below 64.0%. How did that happen? It's because Yards Per Completion is the lowest it has been in NFL history. (Also passing yards per game is also at it's lowest since 2009, and passing TDs are at it's lowest since 2008.)

Good stuff TLL, reps man.