Mike Brown wants to keep Burrow long term

[*Synric*]

(01-18-2023, 09:15 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Of the top 12 cap hits at QB in 2022, only 4 of them were in the playoffs this year despite there being 7th seeds. Only 2 of those 4 made it to the Divisional Round, 1 via bye. Meanwhile of the 8 teams still in the playoffs 4 have QBs on rookie deals and a 5th, the 49ers, have Purdy on a rookie deal and Jimmy G took a huge paycut.

The goal isn't to get 10-13 wins and get knocked out of the playoffs early every year. The goal is to win Super Bowls. You need a lot of talent on your roster to win a Super Bowl. Unless you manage to perpetually get draft after draft in a row of just great find after great find, you need cap space to add that talent and keep your pre-existing talent. Or your window will close.

There's a reason why Aaron Rodgers has only reached the NFC Championship game 2 times in 15 years and Drew Brees only reached it 1 time in 19 years. They both were all about maximizing personal gains. Fair, it's a business, you look out for you, but just don't be surprised when your career ends and you underachieved because you couldn't get enough talent around you.

- - - - - - -

Burrow is going to do whatever he is going to do. If he chases maximum dollar it's his right to get the most pay he can for the work he does. I do hope he takes less to allow the Bengals to keep filling the team with talent around him, but I am not naive enough to expect it to happen. Either way they shouldn't be a terrible team, but competing for Super Bowls is a whole lot more fun than being 9-8 or 11-6 every year and either just missing the cutoff or getting knocked out early.

Injuries are a larger reason than financial why teams are not constantly going back to the super bowl. 2022 Bengals are an excellent example.


Fans trivialize playoff wins but they are hard.

[Daddy-O]

(01-17-2023, 06:57 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I have dreams where Burrow signs for like 10 years, 300 million dollars and then has a press conference where he says "I know I could have gotten more money, but 300 million dollars is already way more money than I'll ever need and I really wanted to make sure Tee and Ja'Marr got their due as well."

And then I wake up and think it's not fair to hope for Burrow to do that. But still secretly really hoping he does it haha.

The players union would have a fit if he does that but he would sure be #1 with fans here and many around the league.

[CJD]

(01-18-2023, 10:54 AM)Daddy-O Wrote: The players union would have a fit if he does that but he would sure be #1 with fans here and many around the league.

Maybe. But Tom Brady has been doing it for decades and no one has made a fuss. It was just generally recognized that Brady preferred sacrificing his salary to allow teams to be built around him.

The highest average annual value contract Tom Brady has had in his entire career is 25 million dollars. 

2022: 25M
2020-21: 25M
2019: 23M
2018: 15M
2016-2018: 20.5M
2015-2016: 9M
2013-2015: 13.6M
2010-2013: 18M
2005-2010:10.7M
2002-2005: 7.4M
2000-2002: 288K

Granted, salary caps have increased a lot over the years, but I believe Tom Brady was always outside the top 5 in QB salary despite being the best QB in the NFL for almost the entire time.

Following his rookie contract (which was obviously a fantastic deal) his cap number, among quarterbacks, was 
13th in 2003
8th in 2004
5th in 2005
1st in 2006
10th in 2007
2nd in 2008
4th in 2009
4th in 2010
8th in 2011
17th in 2012
5th in 2013
12th in 2014 
14th in 2015
18th in 2016
20th in 2017
11th in 2018
11th in 2019
6th in 2020
15th in 2021
17th in 2022

With a few exceptions in the late 2000s, likely where some deferred money happened to jack up his cap hit for that year, Brady was outside of the top 5 for the majority of his career and was in the teens in several of those years. 

I don't see why the players' union would let Tom do this, but not Joe :).

[*bengalfan74*]

(01-17-2023, 04:30 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: The other day it crossed my mind that maybe the Browns thought overpaying Watson would not only get them a QB but also screw the Bengals and Ravens by forcing them to overpay or lose Burrow and Jackson.

Maybe one of their dumb analytics guys came up with that idea.

Something I hadn't thought of. You may be on to something there?

[mhbsavant]

(01-17-2023, 06:57 PM)BengalBob Wrote: Sign him to  a 10 year contract at 15% of the cap annually and call it a day.

Exactly!

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(01-17-2023, 10:11 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: This is true.  On the other hand, when you have a generational quarterback that elevates everyone around him, I think it's worth it.  Andy Dalton was a capable quarterback took the Cincinnati Bengals the several playoffs, but he did not elevate his game or those around him in the Bengals had talented players that couldn't win in the playoffs. 

I don't think Dalton would've won a Superbowl, but never winning a playoff game was a coaching issue....same with the Palmer led teams. 

[*bengalfan74*]

(01-18-2023, 01:30 PM)Wyche Wrote: I don't think Dalton would've won a Superbowl, but never winning a playoff game was a coaching issue....same with the Palmer led teams. 

Indeed

I don't think A. Dalton was All World by any measure. And I agree I doubt Dalton without a "perfect game" all the way around - awesome D performance, lots of turnovers, punt return for TD and so on, ever had a SuperBowl victory in him? 

Butt.... we had to many good rosters to have never won a single damn playoff game with him. 

[*ochocincos*]

This is why teams can't keep everyone and have to find replacements via the draft and/or cheaper FAs to fill out their roster.
When you have elite guys hitting their next contract, it's either going to eat up a large® portion of the team's salary cap or the team now has to fill that void with a new player who may or may not fill those shoes well.

Knowing that Mike Brown loves having a franchise QB, I would not be surprised to see Burrow as a Bengal for a long time.
With that said, we need to be prepared for seeing some of these really good young guys depart because the Bengals will not be able to afford everyone.

[Shake n Blake]

(01-17-2023, 10:03 PM)Watersider Wrote: Don't really like owner coming in at start of playoffs pragmatically talking about contracts and complications. You don't hear burrow saying 'I want to stay but they have to pay me' in the same way Brown says 'we want him but his contract will be a big problem '. Just say he's vital to our franchise and we want him here and leave it at that. Don't know why brown decides to talk now. He's better when he collects his paychecks and stays out of the way in his cosy box seats.

Agreed. I agree with Mike, but the timing is terrible for posturing.

[Shake n Blake]

(01-17-2023, 10:11 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: This is true.  On the other hand, when you have a generational quarterback that elevates everyone around him, I think it's worth it.  Andy Dalton was a capable quarterback took the Cincinnati Bengals the several playoffs, but he did not elevate his game or those around him in the Bengals had talented players that couldn't win in the playoffs. 

I love Joey B, but I don't think we have many guys that need elevating right now. Our receiving corp is the best in the league. Good RBs. Very good defense.

The only team Dalton had that rivaled this one was 2015 when he was an MVP candidate. Do I think Burrow will elevate guys much better than Andy did? Of course, but I just don't think Joe's elevate-ability (lol) has been tested much yet.

(01-18-2023, 09:15 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Of the top 12 cap hits at QB in 2022, only 4 of them were in the playoffs this year despite there being 7th seeds. Only 2 of those 4 made it to the Divisional Round, 1 via bye. Meanwhile of the 8 teams still in the playoffs 4 have QBs on rookie deals and a 5th, the 49ers, have Purdy on a rookie deal and Jimmy G took a huge paycut.

The goal isn't to get 10-13 wins and get knocked out of the playoffs early every year. The goal is to win Super Bowls. You need a lot of talent on your roster to win a Super Bowl. Unless you manage to perpetually get draft after draft in a row of just great find after great find, you need cap space to add that talent and keep your pre-existing talent. Or your window will close.

There's a reason why Aaron Rodgers has only reached the NFC Championship game 2 times in 15 years and Drew Brees only reached it 1 time in 19 years. They both were all about maximizing personal gains. Fair, it's a business, you look out for you, but just don't be surprised when your career ends and you underachieved because you couldn't get enough talent around you.

- - - - - - -

Burrow is going to do whatever he is going to do. If he chases maximum dollar it's his right to get the most pay he can for the work he does. I do hope he takes less to allow the Bengals to keep filling the team with talent around him, but I am not naive enough to expect it to happen. Either way they shouldn't be a terrible team, but competing for Super Bowls is a whole lot more fun than being 9-8 or 11-6 every year and either just missing the cutoff or getting knocked out early.

Exactly. Look at it this way.

Elite QB + mediocre roster = mediocre QB + very good roster.

I'd say you're getting a similar result with either one.

(01-18-2023, 10:13 AM)Synric Wrote: Injuries are a larger reason than financial why teams are not constantly going back to the super bowl. 2022 Bengals are an excellent example.


Fans trivialize playoff wins but they are hard.

Playoff wins only seem to become "hard" (with an elite QB) when said QB signs his first mega deal.

Playoff wins were easy for the Seahawks until Wilson signed a mega deal. It was easy for the Packers until they had to deal Adams when Rodgers signed a huge new deal. Just as playoff wins are easy for us now.

This is a simple truth. No sense in mental gynastic-ing your way out of it.

(01-18-2023, 02:56 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Indeed

I don't think A. Dalton was All World by any measure. And I agree I doubt Dalton without a "perfect game" all the way around - awesome D performance, lots of turnovers, punt return for TD and so on, ever had a SuperBowl victory in him? 

Butt.... we had to many good rosters to have never won a single damn playoff game with him. 

We lost to Mark Sanchez and TJ Yates. Huntley almost beat us. You either have a coach who can game plan or you don't. There's many dozens of examples of worse QB's than Dalton winning playoff games. Recently, too.

[*psychdoctor*]

(01-18-2023, 01:30 PM)Wyche Wrote: I don't think Dalton would've won a Superbowl, but never winning a playoff game was a coaching issue....same with the Palmer led teams. 

I don't want this to become a Dalton hater thread.  Not the intention.  Dalton did not elevate others around him.  He did not change the Bengal culture.  Burrow elevates with his intangibles.  He is worth the contract.  Burrow changed the culture of the team and even the community.  

[*psychdoctor*]

(01-18-2023, 03:52 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I love Joey B, but I don't think we have many guys that need elevating right now. Our receiving corp is the best in the league. Good RBs. Very good defense.

The only team Dalton had that rivaled this one was 2015 when he was an MVP candidate. Do I think Burrow will elevate guys much better than Andy did? Of course, but I just don't think Joe's elevate-ability (lol) has been tested much yet.

While I agree the WR is talented, the chemistry between Burrow and Chase is unmatched.  This chemistry is based on work ethic but also intangibles.  Burrow brings off the chart intangibles and changed the culture of the team.  He is worth the highest paid QB in league.  

[Luvnit2]

The player's union should have no beef if any player decides to take less money for a long term contract. Why do they care? The cap is based on spending enough money. How the Bengals or any team decide to pay individuals is irrelevant as long as the team spends the cap money.

I have no idea what Joe will demand. I look at Mahommes and Allen and they did not break the bank. Rodgers is on his third contract, so not a comparison. He is also a former Super Bowl winner and league MVP 3 times.

[Interceptor]

(01-17-2023, 06:57 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I have dreams where Burrow signs for like 10 years, 300 million dollars and then has a press conference where he says "I know I could have gotten more money, but 300 million dollars is already way more money than I'll ever need and I really wanted to make sure Tee and Ja'Marr got their due as well."

And then I wake up and think it's not fair to hope for Burrow to do that. But still secretly really hoping he does it haha.

And even leaves some space for Jefferson.

[Essex Johnson]

(01-18-2023, 10:13 AM)Synric Wrote: Injuries are a larger reason than financial why teams are not constantly going back to the super bowl. 2022 Bengals are an excellent example.


Fans trivialize playoff wins but they are hard.

Almost every team by this time has 2 to 4 starters out for the game or year, it is less how many but who.. if you listed our top 10 players only Kappa to me would be on there that is out for year.. Buffalo has Miller and Hyde out probably 2 of their top 10.  Our core is healthy.. injuries will not be the reason we lose this game going in.

[Shake n Blake]

(01-18-2023, 04:06 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: While I agree the WR is talented, the chemistry between Burrow and Chase is unmatched.  This chemistry is based on work ethic but also intangibles.  Burrow brings off the chart intangibles and changed the culture of the team.  He is worth the highest paid QB in league.  

I don't disagree with you, I'm just saying his ability to elevate guys hasn't truly been tested. Chase, Higgins and Boyd would be a fantastic group anywhere. So long as the QB isn't terrible. This defense is great on their own and has saved Burrow on numerous occasions.

Once Burrow gets $50 million per, then his ability to elevate a weaker roster will start to be tested. I think he could lead us to the playoffs with a cast of poor players, but Super Bowl? I doubt it. History shows that very few bad rosters make the Super Bowl, and even fewer win it.

I doubt I could come up with even 1 example of a championship team that was totally carried by the QB alone.

Talk of culture is easy when the team is winning the way it is. We said the culture was changed 10 years ago. Until it wasn't.

[Luvnit2]

(01-18-2023, 04:39 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: Almost every team by this time has 2 to 4 starters out for the game or year, it is less how many but who.. if you listed our top 10 players only Kappa to me would be on there that is out for year.. Buffalo has Miller and Hyde out probably 2 of their top 10.  Our core is healthy.. injuries will not be the reason we lose this game going in.

The Bengals are down 3 starting OL and our CB. That is significant. You mentioned Bills being down 2 starters. I may be wrong, but KC may not have any starters out for the year.

Injuries can and do play a role in trying to win 4 games, 3 playoff games and then the Super Bowl.

[Stewy]

(01-17-2023, 04:43 PM)mhbsavant Wrote: I really think that's why they did that! Imagine when we get to the days that QBs, WRs, LTs and MLBs are all guaranteed contracts, just a matter of time!

I personally think the owners will fight against the precedent that the Browns set, and the Lamar situation is a result of smart teams refusing to budge the line.  Basically the thinking would be that the owners will tell their QBs that the DW contract was an aberration born of desperation.  Born of desperation and will not consider it in negotiations.

I believe the Ravens will TAG Lamar, trade him for as much as they can get to a team desperate enough to pay him what he wants or close to it, and within half a season he'll be shelved again due to injury, further entrenching the owners NOT to give 100% guaranteed contracts.

Some of you think the ship ha sailed and the owners are locked in their cabins.  I say the ship is still in port, and hasn't sailed yet.  The owners aren't dumb and the majority won't be bent over by their players.

Just watch.  This is just getting started.

[*Nately120*]

It's pretty nuts that we expect Burrow to voluntarily turn down what could be $100+ million bucks.

I won't be disappointed if he doesn't and wants to be paid what he's worth, but damned if i don't expect him to.

I personally wouldn't take a 50% pay cut.  We need to get this done before he has a wife and kids to think about. It's all about trophies, m'boy!

[*bengalfan74*]

(01-18-2023, 03:52 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Exactly. Look at it this way.

Elite QB + mediocre roster = mediocre QB + very good roster.

I'd say you're getting a similar result with either one.

I'll 2nd that 

The elite QB probably gives you a couple regular season wins. But when you get into the playoffs that mediocre roster usually shows up, in a bad way. 

I hope Joe will sign a reasonable deal. But I don't expect him to play for elite QB peanuts. Brady's Xwife made more money than he did. Don't think Joe has that luxury?