Mike Brown wants to keep Burrow long term

[*Nately120*]

(01-18-2023, 05:34 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I'll 2nd that 

The elite QB probably gives you a couple regular season wins. But when you get into the playoffs that mediocre roster usually shows up, in a bad way. 

I hope Joe will sign a reasonable deal. But I don't expect him to play for elite QB peanuts. Brady's Xwife made more money than he did. Don't think Joe has that luxury? 

True. It's odd though that I could see Burrow looking at Rodgers or Mahommes or Allen and being like "I'll take half if what they're making!"

Maybe Burrow can just marry into the Brown family. That'd be easier. 

[*psychdoctor*]

(01-18-2023, 04:40 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I don't disagree with you, I'm just saying his ability to elevate guys hasn't truly been tested. Chase, Higgins and Boyd would be a fantastic group anywhere. So long as the QB isn't terrible. This defense is great on their own and has saved Burrow on numerous occasions.

Once Burrow gets $50 million per, then his ability to elevate a weaker roster will start to be tested. I think he could lead us to the playoffs with a cast of poor players, but Super Bowl? I doubt it. History shows that very few bad rosters make the Super Bowl, and even fewer win it.

I doubt I could come up with even 1 example of a championship team that was totally carried by the QB alone.

Talk of culture is easy when the team is winning the way it is. We said the culture was changed 10 years ago. Until it wasn't.

Maybe the word elevated is misplaced.  Burrow brings out the best in teammates.  

Let's go back to Dalton v Burrow.  Dalton had Taylor as coach but he did not do well,  he is like Herbert in a way.  He can put up good stats but cannot put the team on his shoulders.  If, hypothetically, Burrow had Dalton's coaching staff, That is, Marvin Lewis et al.  Do you think Burrow would have won in the playoffs?

Now Marvin Lewis did change the Bengal culture from the 90s.  He put the Bengals on the map.  The problem was unholy alliance of Marvin Lewis and Mike Brown and drafting talented but troubled characters.  It can be argued a team can have talent but character matters.  Who was the leader of Bengals in 2015?  Was it Dalton?  Maybe Whit.  Was it Atkins?  unclear to me.  Who is the indisputable leader of the team now?  Clearly Burrow.  I don't know if Burrow could overcome character issues of the Lewis regime.  Not sure.  But I do know that Dalton could not carry this team, as of today, on his shoulders.  It is not in Dalton's makeup.  

An average athlete with tremendous work ethic vs troubled character but talented athlete with average work ethic.  As a psych, and sports psych, there has been debate and models on talent, coaching, work ethic.  They are all integrated.  Taylor et al. and defunct GM Tobin, have emphasized character picks.  The unsung, non flash players.  No egos.  Burrow can bring out the best in these type of athletes.  Burrow is smart, gritty, has talent but not overwhelming talent.  His work ethics is off the charts.  This team is disciplined, gritty, focused.  Burrow forges all of these elements into an amalgamation of winners. Burrow is a generational player with elite intangibles.  

[Essex Johnson]

(01-18-2023, 04:46 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: The Bengals are down 3 starting OL and our CB. That is significant. You mentioned Bills being down 2 starters. I may be wrong, but KC may not have any starters out for the year.

Injuries can and do play a role in trying to win 4 games, 3 playoff games and then the Super Bowl.

I listed 2 high end starters I'm not sure who else might have been out since beginning of year. I agree I awuzie is out also, my point was our core on offense is still there losing 3ineman is tough but so is losing your a  future hof defensive player in Miller and an all pro safety.. seems a bit of a wash, both teams have enough good players now to not use injuries as excuse. KC is not relevant,  we are playing bills

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-18-2023, 04:23 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: The player's union should have no beef if any player decides to take less money for a long term contract. Why do they care? The cap is based on spending enough money. How the Bengals or any team decide to pay individuals is irrelevant as long as the team spends the cap money.

I have no idea what Joe will demand. I look at Mahommes and Allen and they did not break the bank. Rodgers is on his third contract, so not a comparison. He is also a former Super Bowl winner and league MVP 3 times.

Eh?

Patrick Mahomes became the highest paid player in the NFL when he signed his extension.
Josh Allen became the 2nd highest paid player in the NFL when he signed his extension.

I think in Mahomes' will eventually will end up looking like a big bargain simply because it was a 10 year deal and we'll see a lot of other QBs pass him up over that long contract. They both got their money big time, though. Mahomes' cap numbers finally jumped up and they had to move on from Tyreek Hill and will probably have to make some more moves before next year, too. Also next year, Allen's cap number jumps up and we'll have to see what it costs the Bills in players.

So if Burrow follows Mahomes and Allen's move, he will either become the highest paid ($50.5m/yr or more) or the second highest paid ($49-50m/yr).

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(01-18-2023, 06:35 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Eh?

Patrick Mahomes became the highest paid player in the NFL when he signed his extension.
Josh Allen became the 2nd highest paid player in the NFL when he signed his extension.

I think in Mahomes' will eventually will end up looking like a big bargain simply because it was a 10 year deal and we'll see a lot of other QBs pass him up over that long contract. They both got their money big time, though. Mahomes' cap numbers finally jumped up and they had to move on from Tyreek Hill and will probably have to make some more moves before next year, too. Also next year, Allen's cap number jumps up and we'll have to see what it costs the Bills in players.

So if Burrow follows Mahomes and Allen's move, he will either become the highest paid ($50.5m/yr or more) or the second highest paid ($49-50m/yr).

All true, the Mahomes and Allen deals were the types of extensions I was hoping for us to avoid with Burrow.

I don't want us losing a bunch of essential players in the process. We will lose a few good players, but hopefully not our leaders.

Need to keep Burrow, Chase, Wilson for sure.

[*michaelsean*]

(01-18-2023, 04:23 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: The player's union should have no beef if any player decides to take less money for a long term contract. Why do they care? The cap is based on spending enough money. How the Bengals or any team decide to pay individuals is irrelevant as long as the team spends the cap money.

I have no idea what Joe will demand. I look at Mahommes and Allen and they did not break the bank. Rodgers is on his third contract, so not a comparison. He is also a former Super Bowl winner and league MVP 3 times.

Agreed. Joe taking less means someone else makes more. Not that I think it’s on Joe to take less.

We can talk about Tom Brady, but he happened to be married to someone who made insane money.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-18-2023, 06:47 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: All true, the Mahomes and Allen deals were the types of extensions I was hoping for us to avoid with Burrow.

I don't want us losing a bunch of essential players in the process. We will lose a few good players, but hopefully not our leaders.

Need to keep Burrow, Chase, Wilson for sure.

Feels a little inevitable. Not many players are (were) married to supermodel wives who are worth like $400m+. If you have a lot of good players, you have a lot of players who will get paid. Eventually you're going to have to make some decisions. The cost of success.

I kind of waffle back and forth on him. Wilson is very good, but the guy's shoulder seem to be made of styrofoam which is not a good thing for really any NFL player but a LB in particular. Pratt is good, but he's a 2 down LB and doesn't set up the defense. I don't think you can pay both, and I don't think you can let both go, either. So I guess you gotta pay Wilson, but you need to make sure you can get out of that deal after a year or two because Wilson's right shoulder and lack of ever playing a full season really worry me.

[Ell Prez]

(01-18-2023, 09:15 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Of the top 12 cap hits at QB in 2022, only 4 of them were in the playoffs this year despite there being 7th seeds. Only 2 of those 4 made it to the Divisional Round, 1 via bye. Meanwhile of the 8 teams still in the playoffs 4 have QBs on rookie deals and a 5th, the 49ers, have Purdy on a rookie deal and Jimmy G took a huge paycut.

The goal isn't to get 10-13 wins and get knocked out of the playoffs early every year. The goal is to win Super Bowls. You need a lot of talent on your roster to win a Super Bowl. Unless you manage to perpetually get draft after draft in a row of just great find after great find, you need cap space to add that talent and keep your pre-existing talent. Or your window will close.

There's a reason why Aaron Rodgers has only reached the NFC Championship game 2 times in 15 years and Drew Brees only reached it 1 time in 19 years. They both were all about maximizing personal gains. Fair, it's a business, you look out for you, but just don't be surprised when your career ends and you underachieved because you couldn't get enough talent around you.

- - - - - - -

Burrow is going to do whatever he is going to do. If he chases maximum dollar it's his right to get the most pay he can for the work he does. I do hope he takes less to allow the Bengals to keep filling the team with talent around him, but I am not naive enough to expect it to happen. Either way they shouldn't be a terrible team, but competing for Super Bowls is a whole lot more fun than being 9-8 or 11-6 every year and either just missing the cutoff or getting knocked out early.

How sure are we that the reason Brees, Manning, Rodgers only won 1-2 super bowls because they ate up too much cap? Tom Brady is their best QB of all time. These other guys unluckily played in the prime of his career.

If teams are now doing massive contracts for QB’s and it’s the standard for the league, then we’ll be in no worse position than Buffalo, KC, Jags, Phil, etc. I’ll take my chances with a fat paid Burrow vs some rookie.

How many great QB’s can the nfl have? Like truly great. We had Brady, Brees, Manning, Rodgers for so long. I feel like we’ve kinda hit our cap with Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Lawrence, Herbert, Hurts. I know it’s weird to say we’ve hit this artificial limit of great QB’s, but it’s kind of science. There can’t be 10 hall of fame level QB’s playing at once.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-18-2023, 07:06 PM)Ell Prez Wrote: How sure are we that the reason Brees, Manning, Rodgers only won 1-2 super bowls because they ate up too much cap? Tom Brady is their best QB of all time. These other guys unluckily played in the prime of his career.

If teams are now doing massive contracts for QB’s and it’s the standard for the league, then we’ll be in no worse position than Buffalo, KC, Jags, Phil, etc. I’ll take my chances with a fat paid Burrow vs some rookie.

How many great QB’s can the nfl have? Like truly great. We had Brady, Brees, Manning, Rodgers for so long. I feel like we’ve kinda hit our cap with Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Lawrence, Herbert, Hurts. I know it’s weird to say we’ve hit this artificial limit of great QB’s, but it’s kind of science. There can’t be 10 hall of fame level QB’s playing at once.

Can't be positive, obviously, but the only other Quarterbacks to win 4 or more SBs (Bradshaw and Montana) both played before the salary cap existed. 

Troy Aikman won his first 2 SBs before the salary cap existed and his 3rd SB in 1995 the year after the Salary Cap was introduced and they still had the pre-cap roster. The Cowboys haven't won 2 playoff games in a year since.

So only 4 QBs have won 3 or more SBs in NFL history. 3 had the advantage of rosters built with no salary cap and 1 took notably less than he could have.

- - - - - -

As for the elite QBs, I think all the offense-friendly rule changes and QB protections have made a lot more guys look elite than there would have been in the past.

Right now a lot of guy looks like they can be elite QBs, but the real test will be sustaining that level of play. Ryan Tannehill had 2 years of elite play. Andrew Luck had a couple years of elite play. Neither of them could be elite for 10+ years and that's the true test that will winnow those numbers down to the Brees/Rodgers/Manning/Brady type numbers.

AJ Green looked like a future HoF lock after 5-7 years. Now he's almost certainly going to fall short. Reminds me a bit of how after his age 27 season, Jose Altuve was at a faster hit pace than Pete Rose at that age and people were hyping up that he could challenge the hit record. What people forgot to mention was that he needed to hold that pace for another 14 years or whatever. He obviously didn't.

My guess is that in about 5 years, out of the list you provided of "Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Lawrence, Herbert, Hurts", it will be down to 3 players. (Mahomes, Burrow, and Hurts will be my guess, with Allen going the Cam Newton route of falling off a cliff, and Lawrence and Herbert being more Phillip Rivers very-very-good-but-not-great type players.)

[*psychdoctor*]

(01-18-2023, 06:47 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: All true, the Mahomes and Allen deals were the types of extensions I was hoping for us to avoid with Burrow.

I don't want us losing a bunch of essential players in the process. We will lose a few good players, but hopefully not our leaders.

Need to keep Burrow, Chase, Wilson for sure.

It may come down to Pratt or Wilson.  

[mhbsavant]

(01-18-2023, 05:05 PM)Stewy Wrote: I personally think the owners will fight against the precedent that the Browns set, and the Lamar situation is a result of smart teams refusing to budge the line.  Basically the thinking would be that the owners will tell their QBs that the DW contract was an aberration born of desperation.  Born of desperation and will not consider it in negotiations.

I believe the Ravens will TAG Lamar, trade him for as much as they can get to a team desperate enough to pay him what he wants or close to it, and within half a season he'll be shelved again due to injury, further entrenching the owners NOT to give 100% guaranteed contracts.

Some of you think the ship ha sailed and the owners are locked in their cabins.  I say the ship is still in port, and hasn't sailed yet.  The owners aren't dumb and the majority won't be bent over by their players.

Just watch.  This is just getting started.

Excellent Point!!

[*pally*]

(01-18-2023, 05:42 PM)Nately120 Wrote: True. It's odd though that I could see Burrow looking at Rodgers or Mahommes or Allen and being like "I'll take half if what they're making!"

Maybe Burrow can just marry into the Brown family. That'd be easier. 

Well Katie is a little old for him besides she already has a spouse.  Elizabeth and Caroline are both available as far as I know but somehow I think Olivia might have something to say about her guy dumping her for money

[*Nately120*]

(01-19-2023, 11:52 AM)pally Wrote: Well Katie is a little old for him besides she already has a spouse.  Elizabeth and Caroline are both available as far as I know but somehow I think Olivia might have something to say about her guy dumping her for money

I think someone pointed out that NFL franchise ownership is the closest thing to the divine birthright of royalty the USA has ever had, so one of the princesses of the Mike Brown kingdom marrying someone like Burrow is a one-two punch of functional traditionalism. 

Me it so!

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(01-18-2023, 07:04 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Feels a little inevitable. Not many players are (were) married to supermodel wives who are worth like $400m+. If you have a lot of good players, you have a lot of players who will get paid. Eventually you're going to have to make some decisions. The cost of success.

I kind of waffle back and forth on him. Wilson is very good, but the guy's shoulder seem to be made of styrofoam which is not a good thing for really any NFL player but a LB in particular. Pratt is good, but he's a 2 down LB and doesn't set up the defense. I don't think you can pay both, and I don't think you can let both go, either. So I guess you gotta pay Wilson, but you need to make sure you can get out of that deal after a year or two because Wilson's right shoulder and lack of ever playing a full season really worry me.

Wilson's shoulder sure didn't look like it was made of styrofoam on the Linderbaum block...

Plus he is young, it may have healed already and might not be a problem from here on out, he is younger than Pratt, keep youth.

(01-18-2023, 08:04 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: It may come down to Pratt or Wilson.  

Sounds like it, too bad, love both players but you know where my vote is.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-19-2023, 02:26 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Wilson's shoulder sure didn't look like it was made of styrofoam on the Linderbaum block...

Plus he is young, it may have healed already and might not be a problem from here on out, he is younger than Pratt, keep youth.


Sounds like it, too bad, love both players but you know where my vote is.

Dislocating shoulders don't get more sturdy with time and increasing dislocations. Same shoulder had a dislocation, surgery, and dislocation, all within a 12 month period.

Know two people with shoulder dislocation problems. They just become easier and easier to dislocate over time. It's much like a concussion in that way where the more you have the easier it is to get more.

I'm still on board with you in that you have to keep Wilson. I'm just saying don't bury yourself in potential dead cap space in the contract with loads of guarantees. Give yourself a solid exit plan in the contract after a couple years just in case.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(01-19-2023, 02:31 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Dislocating shoulders don't get more sturdy with time and increasing dislocations. Same shoulder had a dislocation, surgery, and dislocation, all within a 12 month period.

Know two people with shoulder dislocation problems. They just become easier and easier to dislocate over time. It's much like a concussion in that way where the more you have the easier it is to get more.

I'm still on board with you in that you have to keep Wilson. I'm just saying don't bury yourself in potential dead cap space in the contract with loads of guarantees. Give yourself a solid exit plan in the contract after a couple years just in case.

Well said, I know that is a nagging injury so yeah, that has to be taken into account in the extension.