Game Narrative This Week

[BillsGuy1986]

(01-21-2023, 04:32 AM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: It's not just aggression, it's confidence. Confidence that Joe Burrow will be able to run an 8 minute, 6 minute, 4 minute or 2 minute offense to kill off a half.

Also confidence in Lou Anarumo's defense getting at least one stop if a team does get a chance of scoring on both ends of the halftime.

This makes sense. At some point it won't happen, statistics and all. I do wonder if sentiment will change if there is a unlucky streak. We call that variance in poker. It'll happen at some point no matter how good you are.

[Interceptor]

I thought Bills ran a Cover-3 Zone as their go-to. Or is this an adjustment because of the absence of Von Miller?

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

(01-21-2023, 09:32 AM)BillsGuy1986 Wrote: This makes sense. At some point it won't happen, statistics and all. I do wonder if sentiment will change if there is a unlucky streak. We call that variance in poker. It'll happen at some point no matter how good you are.

I'm a Zac Taylor semi-supporter much more than I'm a fan. There are a few things he does that I disagree with, that being one of them, but he has completely changed the culture here and we are no longer a reclamation project destination. I love many of the things that Marvin Lewis did here to change things and Taylor has added to that, one of which is drafting a lot of college team captains. That has seriously changed the locker room.

[*SHRacerX*]

(01-20-2023, 04:54 PM)BillsGuy1986 Wrote: Hello my friends,

This is a weird game to predict in that the two teams are in different spots than they were on Jan 2nd. The sentiment around this game confuses me a bit.

1. Is the absence of three potential starting linemen of the Bengals being overblown? Obviously, there will be an impact, but Burrow gets the ball out an average of 2.4 seconds, which is second fastest in the NFL only to Tom Brady. That should mitigate the pass blocking weakness quite a bit. As far as run-blocking, the Bills have steadily improved recently but who knows what Mixon will be able to accomplish since the Dolphins were injured at RB.

2. The Bengals D-line is formidable and the Bills O line was a massive disappointment against the Dolphins. Allen held on to the Ball too long against the Dolphin' s blitz last week. If the Bengals get pressure with 4 I don't know if the Bills can overcome the challenge since Allen has been playing too much Hero ball.

3. I believe the Bengals were on pace to smoke the Bills on Jan 2nd. Taron Johnson was our best player against the Dolphins and he got knocked out with a concussion Jan 2nd which completely threw the defense into disarray. Bills D play base Nickle because Taron Johnson is an uncharacteristically great run defender and nickle corner. He is back and healthy. Tre White is also playing better although Chase embarrassed him on the Bengal's opening drive Jan 2nd.

My Prediction: A surprising defensive struggle for at least the first half. I think whoever gets a big special teams play or key turnover will end up winning the game.

Its too bad this is the divisional round, I think both teams are better than Kansas City and maybe the Eagles. I also hope Carl Cheffers doesn't insert himself into the game. Appreciate any Bengals fan's takes on my comments. Good Luck Sunday.

I think all that you said is fairly accurate.  I have a strange feeling that the Bengals run game, with Mixon, Perine, and maybe even Tayveon Williams will have  a huge impact on the game.  Want to help the line get settled?  Run the ball effectively.  That will also open up play action and some deep shots.  If the Bills aren't playing cover 2 deep all game, I am sure the Bengals will get their shots.  Joe will hold it even if he is going to get lit up.  He knows it is win or go home, and that dude knows how to win.  

My biggest concern with the Bills is Dawson Knox.  I know he isn't the threat that Diggs is right now, but without Flowers, the Bengals can't put a LB on him as they will be focused on stopping the run and a rushing Allen.  

The Bills are the one team that if the Bengals lose to, I won't be pissed.  Not that I feel they should beat everyone, but I am just sick of KC and tired of hearing about Brock Purdy.  Buffalo is my third fav team behind the Lions and might be second after the way they came together after the near tragic play  for Damar.  

To your point, officiating scares the hell out of me.  We have seen bogus, phanton, or non-calls that decided games.  It feels like the NFL wants Allen/Mahomes at all costs.  I hppe the Bengals give Goodell a nice, big shitburger to eat.  

[Sled21]

(01-21-2023, 09:29 AM)BillsGuy1986 Wrote: Really? I haven't heard this take anywhere this week. Why?

We're missing our best corner, Awuzie, and CTB is a rookie. That leaves Eli Apple, who is playing really good but is nowhere near lockdown.

[*bfine32*]

(01-21-2023, 09:29 AM)BillsGuy1986 Wrote: Really? I haven't heard this take anywhere this week. Why?

What Sled said, plus the player Lou likes to use to "take away what the opponent wants" is Trey Flowers and he's most likely not going to play. 
So we have:

A guy who was supposed to be our off-corner is now our #1.

A rookie who tackles better than he covers as our #2

Our disappointing 1st RD hybrid trying to do what Flowers does

A couple no-name UDFAs

While the Bills have Stephon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Cole Beasley, Isiaih McKinzie (hurt?) and Khalil Shakir.

Luckily Allen loves the deep ball and we've got a couple very good Safeties. They just better make the right read on every play

[Nepa]

(01-21-2023, 12:47 AM)BillsGuy1986 Wrote: I think we've had enough hardships lol, hope one of us finally punches through.

Your point about aggression makes sense, you'd think that would be what football is all about. 

Although, at some point the Bengals will have a turnover or punt on the first drive, and then the pressure flips if the other team scores. I always thought the logic of deferring made more sense but its been working for you guys so who cares.

Years ago, when I first started to watch (I became a Bengals fan in 1968), teams always received the ball first. That's because the rules then didn't allow one to defer when winning the coin toss and thus if a team kicked off to start, the other team would choose the side they wanted to defend for the kickoff and then also get to choose to receive the second half kickoff. That all changed sometime in the 2000s. with the option to defer to the second half. 

In recent memory, with the option to defer, teams generally choose to kickoff to start the game and then receive the second half kickoff. I really think this was because of the success the Patriots and Brady had. It seemed they were always ending the first half with the ball and then starting the second half with the ball. I don't like when announcers talk about getting two for one. That's a phrase that fits in basketball, not in football. It's a lazy phrase. It's really getting the ball two times in a row.

But the Bengals have been receiving first. Why? I think because of what another poster said -- confidence. They are not intimidated by the crowds and noise and brightness of the stage, but do like the opportunity to put the other team in a hole to start. I think here is also an intimidation factor in that it goes against what other teams have been doing-- a kind of "we're not afraid to take the ball first." And I also think because the Bengals are really good at adjusting their defense for the second half of games, so kicking off the second half is not all that detrimental.

And, let's be honest, always ending up with the ball at the end of a half and beginning of the next half is not a thing. Teams have just as much a chance to kick off to start a game and still end up  with the ball at the end of the first half. 

[Sled21]

(01-21-2023, 11:00 AM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: I'm a Zac Taylor semi-supporter much more than I'm a fan. There are a few things he does that I disagree with, that being one of them, but he has completely changed the culture here and we are no longer a reclamation project destination. I love many of the things that Marvin Lewis did here to change things and Taylor has added to that, one of which is drafting a lot of college team captains. That has seriously changed the locker room.

And now I wonder how many teams are going to change their draft prioritues to match what Zac has done by bringing in team captains from winning programs and coaches kids

[Nepa]

Regarding the question on whether losing 60% of the starting offensive line is being overblown -- I would say its not being overblown. Fans talk about the Bengals getting to the Super Bowl with a makeshift OL last year. Yes, but Burrow was close to setting a record for being sacked. Heck, he was sacked 9 times by the Titans. Nine! And actually would have been 11 had there not been two penalties that wiped out sacks.

When the OL first gelled this year, Burrow was sitting back in a pocket and surveying the field and was unstoppable. Imagine having time for Chase and Higgins and Boyd and Hurst to run around as Burrow sat in the pocket.

I would not be surprised at all to see the Bills blitz more in this game. Burrow is good at getting rid of the ball fast this year. (He wasn't always, but adapted given the lousy OL last year). But he can't pass with someone draped all over him or while he is on the ground.

[Sled21]

I'm really hoping Jack the Jiant takes this game and makes LT his spot for Jonah to have to take back next year. He may well crap his pants, but I have a good feeling he's gonna keep Burrow clean.

[*Synric*]

Which game was it when they started taking the ball after they won the coin toss Atlanta or Carolina? They have either lost once or been undefeated since then lol.

[BillsGuy1986]

(01-21-2023, 01:21 PM)Nepa Wrote: Regarding the question on whether losing 60% of the starting offensive line is being overblown -- I would say its not being overblown. Fans talk about the Bengals getting to the Super Bowl with a makeshift OL last year. Yes, but Burrow was close to setting a record for being sacked. Heck, he was sacked 9 times by the Titans. Nine! And actually would have been 11 had there not been two penalties that wiped out sacks.

When the OL first gelled this year, Burrow was sitting back in a pocket and surveying the field and was unstoppable. Imagine having time for Chase and Higgins and Boyd and Hurst to run around as Burrow sat in the pocket.

I would not be surprised at all to see the Bills blitz more in this game. Burrow is good at getting rid of the ball fast this year. (He wasn't always, but adapted given the lousy OL last year). But he can't pass with someone draped all over him or while he is on the ground.

Yeah i dunno. If Burrow continues to get the ball out fast you may be doing yourself a disservice by Blitzing and perhaps leaving zone.

I heard your center is really good, and that is the most important piece of any o-line. Game time can't come soon enough.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(01-21-2023, 11:52 AM)SHRacerX Wrote:

I think all that you said is fairly accurate.  I have a strange feeling that the Bengals run game, with Mixon, Perine, and maybe even Tayveon Williams will have  a huge impact on the game.  Want to help the line get settled?  Run the ball effectively.  That will also open up play action and some deep shots.  If the Bills aren't playing cover 2 deep all game, I am sure the Bengals will get their shots.  Joe will hold it even if he is going to get lit up.  He knows it is win or go home, and that dude knows how to win.  

My biggest concern with the Bills is Dawson Knox.  I know he isn't the threat that Diggs is right now, but without Flowers, the Bengals can't put a LB on him as they will be focused on stopping the run and a rushing Allen.  

The Bills are the one team that if the Bengals lose to, I won't be pissed.  Not that I feel they should beat everyone, but I am just sick of KC and tired of hearing about Brock Purdy.  Buffalo is my third fav team behind the Lions and might be second after the way they came together after the near tragic play  for Damar.  

To your point, officiating scares the hell out of me.  We have seen bogus, phanton, or non-calls that decided games.  It feels like the NFL wants Allen/Mahomes at all costs.  I hppe the Bengals give Goodell a nice, big shitburger to eat.  

Just saw your other thread about the Bills being 30th against the run but thought I would post here first to bump BillsGuy1986's
thread. This could also be the way we go in settling the OL in the run game for once, even if Zac and Burrow love the Shotgun and
the empty sets. When we started our win streak, the running game being established was a big part of it.

Agree on everything and especially Knox being a big concern going into this one if Flowers is out and even if he plays, he will be 
banged up. Need Dax Hill to show why he was a 1st round pick in this game.

(01-21-2023, 01:09 PM)Nepa Wrote: Years ago, when I first started to watch (I became a Bengals fan in 1968), teams always received the ball first. That's because the rules then didn't allow one to defer when winning the coin toss and thus if a team kicked off to start, the other team would choose the side they wanted to defend for the kickoff and then also get to choice to receive the second half kickoff. That all changed sometime in the 2000s. with the option to defer to the second half. 

In recent memory, with the option to defer, teams generally choose to kickoff to start the game and then receive the second half kickoff. I really think this was because of the success the Patriots and Brady had. It seemed they were always ending the first half with the ball and then starting the second half with the ball. I don't like when announcers talk about getting two for one. That's a phrase that fits in basketball, not in football. It's a lazy phrase. It's really getting the ball two times in a row.

But the Bengals have been receiving first. Why? I think because of what another poster said -- confidence. They are not intimidated by the crowds and noise and brightness of the stage, but do like the opportunity to put the other team in a hole to start. I think here is also an intimidation factor in that it goes against what other teams have been doing-- a kind of "we're not afraid to take the ball first." And I also think because the Bengals are really good at adjusting their defense for the second half of games, so kicking off the second half is not all that detrimental.

And, let's be honest, always ending up with the ball at the end of a half and beginning of the next half is not a thing. Teams have just as much a chance to kick off to start a game and still end up  with the ball at the end of the first half. 

Great post. I also think it is an intimidation factor in just taking the ball first and going down the field and scoring. As you said, we 
aren't scared to take the ball first. I really liked the inner 8 minutes thing that Brady was talking about and we were using a lot last
season, but you are right, that isn't something you can always rely on so it is a great move to change things up and show confidence 
and be aggressive as hell early.

(01-21-2023, 01:28 PM)Synric Wrote: Which game was it when they started taking the ball after they won the coin toss Atlanta or Carolina? They have either lost once or been undefeated since then lol.

Think it was the Falcons game.

[Earendil]

I ran into a ton of Bills fans this week at Disney and they were all awesome.

[dr tarzan]

(01-21-2023, 03:39 PM)Earendil Wrote: I ran into a ton of Bills fans this week at Disney and they were all awesome.

Never met one I didn't like...and I don't mean tolerate.  I mean they were VERY likeable people.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

(01-21-2023, 01:13 PM)Sled21 Wrote: And now I wonder how many teams are going to change their draft prioritues to match what Zac has done by bringing in team captains from winning programs and coaches kids

It wouldn't surprise me at all if a few teams adopted that strategy. Many team captains get drafted every year . . . I think that Zac and Duke have made that column a lot more important on the draft checklists of other teams.

I am so THRILLED that they are not drafting combine warriors anymore. I was a fool and got swept up into that shit for years. All it got the Bengals was mostly projects and trying fit a square peg into a round hole.

Now the projects are 7th rounder Markus Bailey, a stud team captain that fell because he was injured late in the season and was their 3rd LB drafted so he had time to heal and learn before seeing the field. No LBs drafted in the two drafts since. D'ante Smith is another project . . . TBD.

And speaking of copying draft patterns, I'd love for them to follow the Dolphins and 49ers theory this last draft and use their last pick on a QB to groom. Brandon Allen does not give me any confidence at all. If the Dolphins rookie QB has a stronger arm(his passes just floated to the receivers), they win last week and Cincy is hosting Jacksonville tomorrow. He made one real bad throw all game, but lots of good decisions for a rookie thrown into the fire. Cincy deserves a better backup QB. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(01-20-2023, 10:19 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Now you, you are probably the main reason why I have liked Bills fans so much. Needed you on here with your rationality 
and just plain respect that we always give you 86. I think all of your thoughts have merit, especially Taron Johnson who has
been your best player on Defense I have seen lately by far. Ed Oliver The Riddler, Milano and White are good too though.

Nice thread that should bring back some respect to Bills fans after a few came on the board only to troll and smack talk.

Rock on BillsGuy1986. 

Only thing missing is the hug.  

[*rfaulk34*]

(01-21-2023, 12:09 AM)Go Cards Wrote: Skyline dip is the best way to go imho. 

Agree with Nate that the aggression and confidence in taking the ball first is admirable, yet I'm not a huge fan of always taking this approach.  

I think it works well at home. On the road, especially against the Bills, i'd probably defer and go for the 2 for 1 around the half. 

[Nepa]

(01-21-2023, 06:49 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: I think it works well at home. On the road, especially against the Bills, i'd probably defer and go for the 2 for 1 around the half. 

Well, I pointed this out above: There is no "2 for 1." It seems most NFL announcers use that phrase, but that is a phrase that only works in basketball. It is two in a row, not two for one. I think the announcers that are taking 2 for 1 from basketball and inappropriately applying it are either lazy or just not thinking what they are saying.

[*rfaulk34*]

(01-21-2023, 08:05 PM)Nepa Wrote: Well, I pointed this out above: There is no "2 for 1." It seems most NFL announcers use that phrase, but that is a phrase that only works in basketball. It is two in a row, not two for one. I think the announcers that are taking 2 for 1 from basketball and inappropriately applying it are either lazy or just not thinking what they are saying.

If you get a possession at the end of the half and beginning the 2nd half, without the other team getting one...that's 2 for 1. 

The terminology is the same but the definition is different. Basketball is literally getting 2 possessions to the other teams 1. Football is getting 2 consecutive possessions instead of 1.