What is up with Hendrickson?

[Mer]

(01-30-2023, 04:48 PM)BigPapaKain Wrote: It's not even about being mad (I'm not).

It's a ridiculous discussion to have. Dude was injured and played through it and got held all game by one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. That's what's up with Hendrickson.

I'm not even trying to be a dick here - it's just a simple answer.

My apologies if I took it the wrong way.

Back on subject. I was referring to the whole year not just this past game. Am I the only one that noticed a big drop off in his production? 

I was really hoping that some on here that dive deeper into the defensive schemes and calls could let me know if they felt his production drop off this year was scheme related or is he already declining?

[*psychdoctor*]

I know lack of sacks seems like an issue. But you must understand Anarumo schemes. The DL is to make a lane wall and keep QB inside. IF the DE comes in for the sack right away and whiffs, then lanes open and offense can have big play. Often Lou would rush 3 and drop 8 with Hilton blitz in packages. But the goal is pressure not necessarily sacks. Pressures can create TO which is just as good if not better than sacks only.

[BRM13]

(01-30-2023, 05:34 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: I know lack of sacks seems  like an issue.  But you must understand Anarumo schemes.  The DL is to make a lane wall and keep QB inside.  IF the DE comes in for the sack right away and whiffs, then lanes open and offense can have big play.  Often Lou would rush 3 and drop 8 with Hilton blitz in packages.  But the goal is pressure not necessarily sacks.  Pressures can create TO which is just as good if not better than sacks only.

A related point. I saw on NFLN that in each of  last two seasons, Hendrickson led the NFL in QB pressure rate (something like 24%).  So, it depends on what you think is 'productive'; sacks are one measure, but I'd guess a lot of defensive coordinators use pressures, too.  So, if the report I saw was accurate, then he has been elite at exactly what Anarumo wants.

[Mer]

(01-30-2023, 05:40 PM)BRM13 Wrote: A related point. I saw on NFLN that in each of  last two seasons, Hendrickson led the NFL in QB pressure rate (something like 24%).  So, it depends on what you think is 'productive'; sacks are one measure, but I'd guess a lot of defensive coordinators use pressures, too.  So, if the report I saw was accurate, then he has been elite at exactly what Anarumo wants.

I thank you and psychedoctor for your responses. That really was my question. Scheme or decline? The part about rushing in and not containing makes sense. I know his sack numbers were down but does anyone know if the holding calls he creates were down too?

[KillerGoose]

Hendrickson has been the poster boy for overproducing relative to pressures. He did it in 2020 and then did it again in 2021. He was due for a regression and that regression came this year. In 2020 he converted 28% of his pressures to sacks and in 2021, 23% of his pressures to sacks. League average is roughly 17%, so you would have expected him to have roughly 12 sacks on the season. So, he was overperforming the last two years. This year, he converted about 12% of his pressures to sacks.

Some will say that it is injury related, and it is likely due to that in some manner but he was also struggling to get sacks prior to his injury. Up until the injury, he was converting 13% of his pressures to sacks. Slightly better, but still a major regression. One good thing is that his pressure percentage went up this year, and has been steadily increasing since 2020. He logged a pressure percentage of 16.2%, which was up from 15.5% in 2021 and that was up from 13% in 2020.

Given the trends, Trey is likely to be a consistent double digit sack player. Anywhere from 10-14 is his likely finishing range, sans injury.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-30-2023, 05:40 PM)BRM13 Wrote: A related point. I saw on NFLN that in each of  last two seasons, Hendrickson led the NFL in QB pressure rate (something like 24%).  So, it depends on what you think is 'productive'; sacks are one measure, but I'd guess a lot of defensive coordinators use pressures, too.  So, if the report I saw was accurate, then he has been elite at exactly what Anarumo wants.

Every time someone brings up pressures being great and sacks aren't necessary, I bring this up....



...sacks are worth so incredibly much more than any pressure. You lose yards, you lose a down, your QB takes a hit, your QB can fumble. It takes 5.75 hits/hurries to equal 1 sack.

The Bengals were 29th in sacks in 2022, and sure enough, they kept giving a one-legged QB all day long. The idea that you don't need sacks if you get some pressures just doesn't ever pan out.

The Super Bowl this year is the #1 sack team vs the #2 sack team. Protect your good QB, and sack the opposing QB.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(01-30-2023, 04:20 PM)Rubekahn29 Wrote: He’s held, but we also don’t have another top tier pass rusher to give teams fits. He’s almost always right next to the QB. Hubbard is great for his role but he’ll never be a top tier pass rusher

Ossai was getting pressure all game, sure, would like to add another pass rusher in the Draft but Hendrickson is a great pass 
rusher when he doesn't have a broken wrist and being held all game and Ossai is coming along big time along with Cam Sample.

[BRM13]

(01-30-2023, 07:18 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Every time someone brings up pressures being great and sacks aren't necessary, I bring this up....



...sacks are worth so incredibly much more than any pressure. You lose yards, you lose a down, your QB takes a hit, your QB can fumble. It takes 5.75 hits/hurries to equal 1 sack.

The Bengals were 29th in sacks in 2022, and sure enough, they kept giving a one-legged QB all day long. The idea that you don't need sacks if you get some pressures just doesn't ever pan out.

The Super Bowl this year is the #1 sack team vs the #2 sack team. Protect your good QB, and sack the opposing QB.

Fair points.  Two things.  First, i was answering the OP about whether Hendrickson's production had declined.  My answer is it depends on which type.  Sacks yes, pressures not so much.  

Second, I don't think sacks are unnecessary or that pressures = sacks.  Sacks are clearly better, just like homeruns are better than singles.  Your chart says sacks are roughly 4 times better than a pressure.  Would you rather have 5 pressures or 1 sack?  Your chart says 5 pressures.  Hendrickson gets a lot of pressures, so he is still being pretty productive.  Of course, he'd be a lot more valuable if he turned a few more of those pressures into sacks.  Just like Pete Rose was productive, but he would have been more valuable if he'd turned a few of those singles into homeruns.

As Killer Goose noted above, sacks are correlated with pressures.  His numbers said that across the league about 17% of pressures turn into sacks, IIRC.  So, it wouldn't shock me if it was also true (I'm too lazy to look it up) that the #1 pressure team was playing the #2 pressure team in the Super Bowl.  

[The American Dream]

He was held all damn game and did an admirable job throughout. Yes, we need another true pass rusher, but that has been the case forever, nothing to do with Hendrickson.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-30-2023, 08:00 PM)BRM13 Wrote: Fair points.  Two things.  First, i was answering the OP about whether Hendrickson's production had declined.  My answer is it depends on which type.  Sacks yes, pressures not so much.  

Second, I don't think sacks are unnecessary or that pressures = sacks.  Sacks are clearly better, just like homeruns are better than singles.  Your chart says sacks are roughly 4 times better than a pressure.  Would you rather have 5 pressures or 1 sack?  Your chart says 5 pressures.  Hendrickson gets a lot of pressures, so he is still being pretty productive.  Of course, he'd be a lot more valuable if he turned a few more of those pressures into sacks.  Just like Pete Rose was productive, but he would have been more valuable if he'd turned a few of those singles into homeruns.

As Killer Goose noted above, sacks are correlated with pressures.  His numbers said that across the league about 17% of pressures turn into sacks, IIRC.  So, it wouldn't shock me if it was also true (I'm too lazy to look it up) that the #1 pressure team was playing the #2 pressure team in the Super Bowl.  

Nah, "all pressure" are all pressures including sacks. The "hit & hurried" is all pressure without sacks. So it's roughly 5.75 non-sack pressures per sack to be of equal value in EPA.

In 2021 Hendrickson had 14.0 sacks and 45 total pressures (sacks + pressures, so 31 non-sack pressures). That is a total of -35.997 EPA.
In 2022 Hendrickson had 8.0 sacks and 35 total pressures (so 27 non-sack pressures). That's a total of -23.569 EPA.

That's a difference of 12.428 EPA. As someone mentioned in a different thread on this board, 4 of the Bengals 5 losses this year (postseason included) were lost by a total of 11 points. You obviously can't determine when and where the plays would have happened if they had happened, but I bring that up just to show that 12.428 EPA could be a HUGE difference in a season.

If Hendrickson wanted to have the same EPA from sacks and pressures as he did in 2021 despite having 6 less sacks, he would have needed to get roughly 69.5 total pressures with his 8 sacks. For comparison, the leader in the NFL this year had 56 total pressures and he was 9 ahead of 2nd place. So it isn't feasible to just replace that many sacks by getting extra pressures (which he still didn't do).



- - - - -

And now I am done with math for the day. Lol

[THE PISTONS]

(01-30-2023, 04:28 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Wasn't really just that game. He was just underwhelming as a whole this year.

Went from 14.0 sacks to 8.0 sacks.
Went from 12 TFL to 6 TFL.


Had a couple good games, but also just absolutely vanished for large stretches of the season. 6.5 of his 8.0 sacks came in 3 games. He finished the season getting blanked in sacks in 8 of the final 10 games. He only registered at least half a sack or more in 5 out of his 18 games.

He really needs a bounce-back season because the Bengals have to be better at getting to the QB than they were in 2022 (29th in sacks).

He had 1 great year with Saints then was a free agent. The deal the Bengals signed him to had outs in case he flopped. 

He did very well last year. And above average to good this year. But, not elite. 

We really don't have the pass rush that other elite teams have and it's an issue against these teams.

[Sled21]

I can't believe this is even a thread...

[The D.O.Z.]

I don’t know exact snap counts but I would think he was spelled by Sample a bit on obvious running downs throughout the year, and some Ossai. Perhaps they saw how worn down he was from being relied upon so much in 2021 the coaches made it a point to mix more guys in, not really a “rotation” but getting multiple guys snaps in multiple defensive line spots?

[puddycat]

It has been clear that we need to generate more pressure on the QB. That's why we resigned BJ Hill. Sam Hubbard is a great football player, but he is not a great pass rusher. Having DJ Reader out for a chunk of the year really hurt. We only have two good blitzers on the team, Hilton and Bell. Bell is out there almost of the plays so he's gonna wear down. IMO without Hendrickson, this team would have almost NO pass rush. Dude's carrying us.

[Mer]

(01-30-2023, 10:12 PM)Sled21 Wrote: I can't believe this is even a thread...

I was just curious if I was the only one that saw a drop off in his play this year and I was curious if anyone else did and if they thought it was due to scheme or decline in play. Looking through this thread, I'd say I wasn't the only one that felt his play was subpar compared to last year.

Honestly, with some of the threads I've seen on here and the old board I can't believe you can't believe this is a thread. 

[SunsetBengal]

(01-30-2023, 10:12 PM)Sled21 Wrote: I can't believe this is even a thread...

It's a fair question, and one that's already been answered, the Bengals lacked consistent pressure from players other than Hendrickson.  The source of that pressure does not have to come in the form of another effective edge rusher, it could come from an interior lineman, a LB or blitzing DB, but it needs to come from somewhere.

[*bengalfan74*]

(01-31-2023, 10:47 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: It's a fair question, and one that's already been answered, the Bengals lacked consistent pressure from players other than Hendrickson.  The source of that pressure does not have to come in the form of another effective edge rusher, it could come from an interior lineman, a LB or blitzing DB, but it needs to come from somewhere.

Yep

As good as the D was we sucked at pass rush the majority of the season. We've got to come up with pressure and a lot more of it from somewhere? What were we 29th in sacks? Just very bad

I love Hendrickson, he's a good player with big motor. And I get it he was dinged up toward the end of season, buttt. He had several games early in the season with not a whole lot of results. 

We have to get more pressure, have to. 

[THE PISTONS]

(01-31-2023, 10:47 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: It's a fair question, and one that's already been answered, the Bengals lacked consistent pressure from players other than Hendrickson.  The source of that pressure does not have to come in the form of another effective edge rusher, it could come from an interior lineman, a LB or blitzing DB, but it needs to come from somewhere.

Of the 4 teams left, we certainly didn't get as much pressure as the other 3.

[J24]

Both Hendrickson(12th) and Hubbard(14th) were top 20 in pressures this season.
Sacks are an issue but it's a DT issue and not an Edge issue. Depending on Ossai injury I would say we have a pretty good Trio at edge.

[higgy100]

(01-31-2023, 01:55 PM)J24 Wrote: Both Hendrickson(12th) and Hubbard(14th) were top 20 in pressures this season.  
Sacks are an issue but it's a DT issue and not an Edge issue. Depending on Ossai injury I would say we have a pretty good Trio at edge.

Agree.What people don't realize was up until the game he broke his wrist, according to ESPN/NFL Next Gen stats, Hendrickson was tied for third in the NFL in pass rush win rate, trailing only Parsons  and Garrett. Trey also comes off the field a lot on running downs as he's not real good there but that doesn't mean teams have to run the ball so he's not on the field as much.

Cinci. had been waiting for Ossai the first half of the year to arrive and he finally did which gave them that extra rusher they needed.If people had watched the games this year alot of what they do is scheme-based. Rarely, in the 1st half of games did they make huge efforts to get to the QB as they like to also drop their DE's some and show mixed coverages. Watch the 2nd half of games and especially when they needed to apply more pressure and it was totally differrent.